Horse Antepost
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Any thoughts/bets on the supporting races yet? Entries on Tuesday so although there's not many being too generous I expect there's a bit of value out there at the moment.
La Foret is possibly an interesting one with doubts about those at the top of the market even running. Although with the drying forecast maybe they will send Limato after all? Esoterique isn't particularly weak on here either for one that's supposedly doubtful. Considered backing Gordon Lord Byron based on his record in the race but don't fancy him to beat the top 2 if they do show...
L'opera looks like being very competitive this year. I've had a little bet on Jazzi Top at 12s. Won well in deauville last time out after not getting a lot of luck in either the Nassua or Oaks (although don't think she wants 12f either).
Cadran again I'm not sure what's running. Clever Cookie would be interesting on class but I'm not convinced he wants this far, although they probably won't go too fast anyway. Litigant is of small interest again for me but I doubt he'll be much shorter than 16s on the day and he's not an ante post proposition having so many problems.
L'abbaye looks like the bookies have got about right to me, fav should win all being well but get a few hard luck stories here over 5f. Move in time at 10s for the repeat seems fair, looks better this year if anything. Maarek (16s currently) has gone well here before and seems to be in a bit of form but will need some luck again with that run style.
2yo races nobody has bothered pricing up... And save the big one for its own topic.
La Foret is possibly an interesting one with doubts about those at the top of the market even running. Although with the drying forecast maybe they will send Limato after all? Esoterique isn't particularly weak on here either for one that's supposedly doubtful. Considered backing Gordon Lord Byron based on his record in the race but don't fancy him to beat the top 2 if they do show...
L'opera looks like being very competitive this year. I've had a little bet on Jazzi Top at 12s. Won well in deauville last time out after not getting a lot of luck in either the Nassua or Oaks (although don't think she wants 12f either).
Cadran again I'm not sure what's running. Clever Cookie would be interesting on class but I'm not convinced he wants this far, although they probably won't go too fast anyway. Litigant is of small interest again for me but I doubt he'll be much shorter than 16s on the day and he's not an ante post proposition having so many problems.
L'abbaye looks like the bookies have got about right to me, fav should win all being well but get a few hard luck stories here over 5f. Move in time at 10s for the repeat seems fair, looks better this year if anything. Maarek (16s currently) has gone well here before and seems to be in a bit of form but will need some luck again with that run style.
2yo races nobody has bothered pricing up... And save the big one for its own topic.
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Esoterique supplemented for sun chariot so won't be running here...
I'd be worried this is a bit of an after thought for Limato. Candy was quoted last week as saying he didnt expect to get his ground, but that he had been on the go a long time anyway...
I think Adaay looks a decent bet in the race at 10/1. Bit of an in out performer, but top class on his day and doesnt look a vintage renewal. Looks versatile with regards to ground and stays well.
I think Adaay looks a decent bet in the race at 10/1. Bit of an in out performer, but top class on his day and doesnt look a vintage renewal. Looks versatile with regards to ground and stays well.
I agree about Jazzi Top for the L'Opera. Great value at 12s each way but thats gone now. Hoping Frankie deserts Star of Seville which perhaps he may do after the Nassau. Will wait for the draw in the L'Abbaye. Big fan of Muthmir and ground coming right for him but you need to be close to that rail in my opinion
Good to hear Andy. My only antepost bet so nice to see the price coming in also. Looks like I may have been a bit hopeful on Litigants price on the day though. Maybe on PMU with the unfancied connections
Draw for Abbaye will determine my play also
Draw for Abbaye will determine my play also
Feodora at 25/1 will be my NAP for Sunday , if she runs in the Opera and if the ground has soft in the description and has an ok draw.
I have a write up to follow on the Yoshida runner - i still dont know the draw yet.
I have a write up to follow on the Yoshida runner - i still dont know the draw yet.
Covert Love L'opera for me, improved since last run and they are very sweet on her
Think Feodora is overpriced at 25/1 - 33/1 in the Opera.
I’m personally not looking too much into rating the horse chances on its recent form i.e throughout the last half of 2014 and leading up to Sunday’s race throughout 2015.
Im also not even looking at the ground at this stage, as I cannot take a solid view on favoured conditions be it soft or good , and I still frustratingly don’t know its draw as it could be important given the larger field than I expected - 14 runners.
At first blush, one would be excused in not really rating the group 1 she won in Germany last year because of either the competition or trip in reference to this year’s Opera.
The Form of its 2014 Group 1 win : http://www.racingpost.com/horses/result_home.sd?race_id=608165&r_date=2014-08-03&popup=yes#results_top_tabs=re_&results_bottom_tabs=ANALYSIS
Ive gone through the horses it beat in the German Oaks and nothing really stands out , however it beat them all very comfortably.
Even still, after taking this all into account, the Teruya Yoshida owned 5yo mare http://bloodstock.racingpost.com/news/bloodstock/german-oaks-winner-feodora-... , still interests me as I think there are reasonable speculations / factors , and interesting questions and facts , which justify the stance in not totally underestimating the horses chances…….even against a bunch of horses who many would believe , and be justified on the recent form , of taking the view of having far better chances.
When I looked at this year’s Opera entries my immediate thoughts were a flashback memory to the 2005 Opera.
http://www.racingpost.com/horses/result_home.sd?race_id=392451&r_date=2005-10-02&popup=yes#results_top_tabs=re_&results_bottom_tabs=ANALYSIS
I was in Paris that weekend and decided to take on Alexander Goldrun the night before …who was odds in the 9 runner race - To cut a long story short I took the view of backing the eventual winner Kinnaird at approx 66/1 and having a much smaller interest on the 2nd horse Mona Lisa at 33/1 .
My main pick Kinnaird was solely on the basis that I could not understand why Pat Haslam had decided to ship the horse over to Longchamp to contest a Group 1 when it had been clearly failing to even go win a group 2.
On its last run before the Opera it had came 3rd to Red Bloom http://www.racingpost.com/horses/result_home.sd?race_id=391900&r_date=2005-0... in a race at the Curragh, and the Stoute horse Red Bloom was re-opposing as a 11/2 shot – I just could understand that the trainer would bother contesting such a race if it hadn’t been the long term plan.
Its form was completely out of the league of the majority of other runners in the race who had been winning or been getting placed in group 1’s , or for that matter others runners actually winning a race that year which kinnard hadn’t . Kinnaird’s last win was 2 years earlier in a 2yo group 2 ….so one would have easily dismissed its chances of even getting placed.
So with those thoughts and experience in mind , whilst understanding that this years opera has a handful of horses who seem to have far superior recent form , I been asking the same contextual questions as I did then in 2005 i.e. what the hell is Fabre doing with this mare Feodora ? when it clearly looks to have no chance at all as it hasn’t even won a race throughout the last half of 2014 and all throughout 2015 ?
Maybe its been the long term plan to have another pop at the Opera under another Fabre’s genius mega plot , or maybe im losing the plot even though was only beaten a just over a length last year into 5th.
Who knows, maybe im looking into the horse too much and speculating too much, but I just feel that the horse is far too big in price
It’s also not putting me off that she ran in the Opera last year and wasn’t up to beating “We Are” (who is opposing again) in the same race this weekend. There have been a few winners I recall who have run in the opera and come unplaced but to turn up the year after and go onto win the race. I think it’s happened on a couple of occasions or possibly even more if my memory stands correct.
Good Luck all
picture from 2005 - O Brien and Fallon leading the 2yo Rumplestiltsjin onto the course shortly before winning the PRIX MARCEL BOUSSAC - which i think he will win again this year.
I’m personally not looking too much into rating the horse chances on its recent form i.e throughout the last half of 2014 and leading up to Sunday’s race throughout 2015.
Im also not even looking at the ground at this stage, as I cannot take a solid view on favoured conditions be it soft or good , and I still frustratingly don’t know its draw as it could be important given the larger field than I expected - 14 runners.
At first blush, one would be excused in not really rating the group 1 she won in Germany last year because of either the competition or trip in reference to this year’s Opera.
The Form of its 2014 Group 1 win : http://www.racingpost.com/horses/result_home.sd?race_id=608165&r_date=2014-08-03&popup=yes#results_top_tabs=re_&results_bottom_tabs=ANALYSIS
Ive gone through the horses it beat in the German Oaks and nothing really stands out , however it beat them all very comfortably.
Even still, after taking this all into account, the Teruya Yoshida owned 5yo mare http://bloodstock.racingpost.com/news/bloodstock/german-oaks-winner-feodora-... , still interests me as I think there are reasonable speculations / factors , and interesting questions and facts , which justify the stance in not totally underestimating the horses chances…….even against a bunch of horses who many would believe , and be justified on the recent form , of taking the view of having far better chances.
When I looked at this year’s Opera entries my immediate thoughts were a flashback memory to the 2005 Opera.
http://www.racingpost.com/horses/result_home.sd?race_id=392451&r_date=2005-10-02&popup=yes#results_top_tabs=re_&results_bottom_tabs=ANALYSIS
I was in Paris that weekend and decided to take on Alexander Goldrun the night before …who was odds in the 9 runner race - To cut a long story short I took the view of backing the eventual winner Kinnaird at approx 66/1 and having a much smaller interest on the 2nd horse Mona Lisa at 33/1 .
My main pick Kinnaird was solely on the basis that I could not understand why Pat Haslam had decided to ship the horse over to Longchamp to contest a Group 1 when it had been clearly failing to even go win a group 2.
On its last run before the Opera it had came 3rd to Red Bloom http://www.racingpost.com/horses/result_home.sd?race_id=391900&r_date=2005-0... in a race at the Curragh, and the Stoute horse Red Bloom was re-opposing as a 11/2 shot – I just could understand that the trainer would bother contesting such a race if it hadn’t been the long term plan.
Its form was completely out of the league of the majority of other runners in the race who had been winning or been getting placed in group 1’s , or for that matter others runners actually winning a race that year which kinnard hadn’t . Kinnaird’s last win was 2 years earlier in a 2yo group 2 ….so one would have easily dismissed its chances of even getting placed.
So with those thoughts and experience in mind , whilst understanding that this years opera has a handful of horses who seem to have far superior recent form , I been asking the same contextual questions as I did then in 2005 i.e. what the hell is Fabre doing with this mare Feodora ? when it clearly looks to have no chance at all as it hasn’t even won a race throughout the last half of 2014 and all throughout 2015 ?
Maybe its been the long term plan to have another pop at the Opera under another Fabre’s genius mega plot , or maybe im losing the plot even though was only beaten a just over a length last year into 5th.
Who knows, maybe im looking into the horse too much and speculating too much, but I just feel that the horse is far too big in price
It’s also not putting me off that she ran in the Opera last year and wasn’t up to beating “We Are” (who is opposing again) in the same race this weekend. There have been a few winners I recall who have run in the opera and come unplaced but to turn up the year after and go onto win the race. I think it’s happened on a couple of occasions or possibly even more if my memory stands correct.
Good Luck all
picture from 2005 - O Brien and Fallon leading the 2yo Rumplestiltsjin onto the course shortly before winning the PRIX MARCEL BOUSSAC - which i think he will win again this year.
I'm on justice day at 80s in the abbaye…ran well last time should prefer better going and not a mile behind some of the fancied runners earlier this season and last...
Not the best draw in 2 for Jazzi Benjy but at least Frankie chose her. Lets hope Star of Seville is a little more accommodating than she was in the Nassau and allows her to sneak through on the rail!
Draw could have been kinder but hopefully we won't be needing that as an excuse. Good to see Frankie pick her as you say. Going to save with Fate.
Limato should have been a play earlier in the week when I said he was an unlikely runner
bit short now. Tempted with Toormore but not had a bet in the race yet.
Small bet on Antonoe in the first. Very impressive so far, proven over the trip and expected to improve for the better ground. Think 15/8 could be quite generous with Ballydoyle being slightly over hyped...
GL with the day all.
Limato should have been a play earlier in the week when I said he was an unlikely runner
bit short now. Tempted with Toormore but not had a bet in the race yet. Small bet on Antonoe in the first. Very impressive so far, proven over the trip and expected to improve for the better ground. Think 15/8 could be quite generous with Ballydoyle being slightly over hyped...
GL with the day all.
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