ASCOT TOTESCOOP CHALLENGE CUP - HEAVENS GUEST 16/1

Heavens Guest was my big fancy for Ayr but the rain never materialised - cant believe it went off second fav - and having seen the weather forecast for this week it looks the same story. Going to be good at least so he's not for me this weekend.

That said, there is a host with chances and some at decent prices.

Buckstay heads the list after his strong finishing 5th at Ayr. Likes a fast run 7f and all ground comes the same. See the 12-1 is currently being hoovered up so not hard to see him going off single figures.

At bigger odds dont rule out the likes of Hawkeyethenoo & Professor who both also caught the eye at Ayr and who both have form here - the latter looking well handicapped on his run in last years Wokingham and with the same trainer who nearly landed this race last year with a similar "cast off". Looks to have been laid out for this and at 33-1 could repay each way interest.

Finally, dont rule out a return to form from Lincoln if he gets in who looks massive at 40-1 given his form earlier in the season. The draw has scuppered his chance on his runs in 4 big handicaps this summer plus Im not convinced he gets a strong run mile. He was disappointing last time despite the trip & reunited with Charles Bishop but even so is not the outsider that those odds suggest.

Im not even going to try to work out which one of Richard Faheys is going to win. It may be significant that Farlow didnt go to Ayr to be kept for this. Who knows.

Should be a good race anyway.

Just remembered that this is the race that has had its numbers restricted to 15 or so because of champions day. Lincoln certainly wont get in with the cut off just now being around the 32/33 runner mark (rated 99). Pity.

No Lincoln in the 5 day decs and quite a few who were higher up in the betting taken out as well.
Still, the likes of Hillbilly Boy and Horsted keynes who have been cut will struggle to get a run, as will Hawkeyethenoo who has been cut across the board.

Have backed Buckstay at 11-1 (all the 12's had gone) and cant resist a few quid e/w Professor as he's still 33's although he still has last years second Empire Storm engaged too.

Suzis Connoisseur will land one of these at some point but keeps finding one too many.

Agree with the above and have had a few quid on Professor. The plan earlier in the season was the Victoria Cup as I remember the trainer saying he thought the stiff 7f at Ascot would be right up his street. Lincoln finished 2nd in the Victoria Cup, Professor finished in front of him in his Haydock prep run so could have gone very close.

I don't know why he missed the race and why he was off so long this summer, I doubt it was planned, but this could be the consolation prize. (Of course you must write off the Ayr Gold Cup as just a traditional comeback never sighted freshener )

Agree with Professor being interesting again. Never really had a run at Ayr. Had a bit of the 33s.

Can see why Buckstay is fav and agree Suzi's is due a win in a reasonable pot but think he may need a bit of rain. Will probably cover one of those two on the day also.

The Halling 3yo colt, Make It Up (dam half sister to Aurthorised) won his maiden first time out at Epsom as a 2yo under  apprentice Thomas Brown and went on to score in good style in the Peter Willett at Goodwood, both over seven furlongs. He was a possible for the German 2,000 Guineas but didn’t make his debut this year until the Surrey Stakes at Epsom on Oaks Day, having been very sick in the spring. Unplaced in the Britannia Stakes (wrong side, bang there 2f out but failed to stay, he’s got plenty of speed) at Royal Ascot for a stable who won the race the previous year (Born in Bombay); he has since progressed into a smart horse. Taking into consideration the notable comment by betilyerded regarding the recent restricted field size, the small weight frame is in his favour with WFA and regular good claimer on board. This is another big opportunity Edward Greatrex, who steered Elbereth majestically to a notable success in the Investec Wealth & Investment Stakes at Epsom- 3lb o/w and 5lb out of the Handicap- on his 1st first ride at Epsom. His 16% strike rate is commendable, his whip use is ambidextrous, and he is strong and light like Oisin Murphy. George Strawbridge owned horse at Ascot? Make no mistake this is a plot horse with Group potential against an exposed handicap field. Stable mate Man of Harlech was a big loser for me in the Cambridgeshire, unfortunately he hits the ground hard and wants soft ground,  so in the circumstances ran a blinder; this horses performance will I hope show losses are only transient.

Nice write up Madhu and 3yos do seem to be winning these handicaps this season. I'm not sure you plot a horse to win a handicap off 111 though, not very well anyway.

Like I say Benjy, there is the known suppressed weight frame, WFA and 5lb apprentice claim. There are few better weighted horses that will get in with such a limited field size.

Aye, it's a fair point and a sign of how things are changing slightly in these races. He's very much got the mark of a group horse though rather than being one lurking. As you say; there won't be too much between top weight and bottom weight so it won't be much of a handicap anyway

Hey, Betil, Yes weather may be a bit of a concern for Heavens Guest with drying ground but is very capable on faster ground too, got some decent form and consistent top 4 finisher on good ground with a few blips... but yeah might find one to good on faster

... for me its whether he has a claimer on board... is vital... few pounds off can make a vital difference... shame he wont put a 5lb claimer on him..

But, I do agree with you on Professor took 33s, he was back from a break last time, so id forgive his last run.. Im hoping he sneaks in... money back if he doesn't...

Madhu - you make a good case but by that rationale you have to fancy Zarwaan to come good at last. He has a 7lb pull for a 3l defeat lto after a 48 day break and has shaped with promise in 2 big field Ascot handicaps this year and he's twice the odds of Make It Up.

Granted he isnt as exposed as Dunlops horse but you do get the feeling there is more to come from Zarwaan too.

I think having seen the forecast again this morning that it could be quick ground by Saturday unless they get heavy dews down there?

betilyerded mate- Respectfully, Zarwaan won't be in front of Make It Up.

Can see where all the Professor fans are coming from, decent run last time when maybe needed and his record at Ascot from two runs is 1st and 2nd in the Wokingham from a 7lb higher mark. Also at this time of the season I prefer a fresher horse, some of these have had a long hard season. The 33s is going only Hills offer it now, good luck with that! Buckstay also looks solid, ran a stormer last time over a trip probably a little short? Spencer down to ride, looks the one to beat.

Make It Up  carries my money. Hoping the ' 3yo trend' continues !

Well I backed Mister Universe today, from that unpredictable Johntson yard at 25/1 also a 3 year old...

Bit worrying Garrity booked on both Heavens Guest and Tatlisu... maybe one coming out...?

Ground should be rattling by Saturday..

Mr Win also backed.

Good luck all.

Decided on a 3rd shot with Outback Traveller at 14-1. Has been well supported the last 24 hours and still remember him destroying a half decent field here this time last year over C&D.

Has shown glimmers this year of that form and think tomorrow may be his day.

Jallota will do for me was giving weight to Mr Win and also gave weight to Rene Mathis and Gabriels lad and Tom Marquand taking 3lbs off should get him home

Sad news for all us Professor backers...

Its a pricewise tip tomorrow...

you may as well burn your slips now...

Gabriels Lad...Outback Traveller

Phew ! Escaped the ' kiss of death '

Sad news for all us Professor backers...

Its a pricewise tip tomorrow...

you may as well burn your slips now...

Bugger.

Small interest on Buckstay 6s & Outback Traveller 11s  for me.
Gd luck all.

WD winners. Deserved that one. I enjoy a Spencer ride like that more than most. He gets stick from a lot of mugs but Moore is the only one better riding in the UK for me.

Well done Bertil and winners...

Spencer would have been hailed a genius or joke in that ride...

Lucky it went to genius in the last stride!

Settled,travelled,quickened and battled. Like Benjy, Jamie Spencer is up there.

Bloody hell - that was close. Im actually begining to like Spencer after todays race and his win on Right Touch here a few weeks back.

Professor ran well enough for a pricewise tip but loks like something went amiss with Outback Traveller. Unlucky if you backed Gabriels Lad.

Just taking a look at the entries for the Balmoral handicap next month. Lots of these entered but its over a mile so maybe we need to look at Cambridgeshire form rather than these 7f races to find the winner.
Buckstay was placed in last years cambridgeshire so shouldnt have an issue with the trip, just wonder what his new mark will be. Interesting that Balty Boys has been taken out of the QE2 after Ellison stated it was the target but left in this race.
If anything deserves a big one its this boy but off 112? Almost tempted by the 20-1.

Well done Betilyerded, good call. enjoy your winnings mate.

Cheers Madhu, though the loss on Professor and Outback Traveller took a bit out - should just have stuck with main fancy.

Funnily enough, didnt notice Zarwaan was running at Redcar and went in at 8-1. Maybe worth giving your fancy another chance as it was friendless on course. Something amiss?

betilyerded- I knew my fate 5 minutes before the off, the drift suggested the colt had lost a leg, three-legged horses cant win a sausage mate. You knew your fate with Professor as soon as dick head picked it unfortunately. I also missed kin Zarwaan- at Redcar?. We both have the Cesarwitch next week. We'll clean up there.