Horse Antepost
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With the field likely to shrink like a wooly jumper in the tumble drier, surely a fair bit of vale in the ew market with the bookies.
I dipped my toe in at £10ew which was referred but accepted....may try a few others now.
I think the Grey Gatsby is a bit overpriced, even if Gleneagles runs, it may not stay, and hopefully it'll lash it down tonight in York.
Anyhow you get a lot of funny results at York, and The Grey Gatsby is ultra consistent.
I dipped my toe in at £10ew which was referred but accepted....may try a few others now.
I think the Grey Gatsby is a bit overpriced, even if Gleneagles runs, it may not stay, and hopefully it'll lash it down tonight in York.
Anyhow you get a lot of funny results at York, and The Grey Gatsby is ultra consistent.
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look's a really good race ,could well have been a great race but as you say they drop away like flies ,why no free eagle , if we get the first four in the market there ,il be happy ,one thing ive learn over the last couple of year's is that it is very hard to get a really good group 1 ,and by good i mean when they all show up ,like in japan .Thats why i love the 2000 g because nobody running away from each other yet
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Yep, hopefully as few runners as possible.
Spread my bets about, so I'm on win lose or draw. Golden Horn was getting 11 lbs from Gatsby last time, only 8lbs now, with the weight for age allowance changing. Just 3 1/2 lengths in it last time, so should be 2 lengths closer.....8/13 and 12/1. I think its good value for the top 3 place.... |
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so you don't think GH will have improved since the Eclipse?
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kevin - why would you want any rain for the gatsby horse, every drop of rain that falls would be against the horse, his only poor runs in his career have come when there is juice in the ground, he is a consistent horse who should run his race and likes the track, so he should go well for your ew bet but i wouldn't want the rain myself
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Of course GH may well have improved since he last ran, but they are not machines, and the 3lbs will help.
Gatsby won the Dante on Good to Soft, and has of course got form on much firmer. If there was "soft" in the description I think he'd run, not sure if Gleneagles would, specially up to 10f, so the ew bit would be even better value. All academic now as I think York has missed the really heavy rain. In any case a really good race if the top 4 turn up, Gatsby being a good measure of how the 3yr olds compare to the older horses, and I'm still pretty happy with the average of 10.5/1 I got each way top 3. |
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10 still in atm. Would not expect to see Cougar Mountain or Arabian Queen to line-up, but hopefully the other 8 will, makes it a better race for the punters each way.
Happy to see Gosden has a pace maker in for Golden Horn (Dick Doug) to help ensure a gd fair pace to get a true run 10f+. Granted he gives his running, i would expect Golden Horn to win. The weather is set fair for the run-up to Weds  if so, its going to be on the fast side of gd, so fully expect to see Gleneagles take his chance along with Time Test & The Grey Gatsby, its a cracker of a race, looking forward to it & the rest of a norn great weeks racing |
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I feel reluctant too talk the race up, because one of the big two likely too be withdrawn?, Gh probably would not mind a little more cut too test Gleneagles who always gives the impression that he will get 10f easy,the opposite for Gleneagles may prefer faster ground? if it were really fast I think John would not run GH.
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I still believe the best of GH will be seen over 12f, and we may see the best of Gleneagles over 10f?
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Just watched the Tyros again, Gleneagles over 7f on only third run, but just look how much time it took him too pass Tombaline, no sprinter this.
https://youtu.be/zz-TZ6BB6Is |
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Again in the irish 2000, Gleneagles does it late on softish ground - https://youtu.be/lzD-W3RVX24
This no sprinter. |
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Beating rubbish mind?
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Gleneagles for u then M J
 Granted fast ground (looks like it) he will have every chance of getting 10f on a flat track like York, prob is though imo, he needs to improve for the step up in trip, not so sure about that myself. He is a very gd miler on fast ground, the best 3yo miler, so gd of them to have a crack at this, if he does run. The just as interesting 1 taking up the challenge is Time Test, he looked very classy at Royal Ascot, 10f on fast ground is very much his thing & i think he could be the main danger to Golden Horn come Weds over this trip, he looks to have lots more to come only having 4 runs in his life so far. Big ask to step into this level for the 1st time, but to my eye he looks well up to it. Cracking race in-store |
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Time Test for the upset. :-)
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A few bubbles to be burst on Wednesday.Will back The Grey Gatsby each way and maybe Golden Horn depending on the price.
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Hi millerracing, I believe GH superior too Gleneagles, I must make that clear, the distance of the race is the problem, we have the top miler(Gleneagles) against the top middle distance horse(Golden Horn), fast ground would suit Gleneagles more over 10f in my opinion, and any rain would possibly advantage Golden Horn, the set up of this race is confusing to read, AOB stated they believe their charge the best miler they have ever had, and thus far dodged any distance beyond the mile, we must remember Austrailia last year and the form-lines they have with the TGG, Gosden seems to believe that 10f Golden Horns best trip? He could be correct? but just a 7-8 lb advantage over TGG(WFA)and did not extend until very late over 10f? Gosden also believes GH wants fast ground, the interesting thing is that AOB seems to have committed Gleneagles too this race,this is a big gamble for both owners, these are the races enthusiast dream about, but I do just wonder if one or the other will not find an excuse not too run? If GH runs I think got more class.
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on paper this looks like the RACE OF THE YEAR, looking forward to this race.
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Golden Horn winning the Derby(12f) - https://youtu.be/eygquDTqRHo Convincing over the 12f,with more too give, do note did take a while too pick up, Jack Hobbs then going on too win Irish Derby in convincing fashion.
Golden Horn winning Eclipse - https://youtu.be/4BioGa9sWRU Everything happening late, a faster pace would have helped for sure,but watching the Derby I do wonder if 12f is needed too be seen to best effect,but ok at 10f  |
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Gleneagles winning 2000 Guineas - https://youtu.be/DVQF_Md-dLU A race Australia failed too take.
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No video available for Time Test, only in the UK, what a disgrace.
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Ratings (my own guesses)
Golden Horn(134) Signifying my own top end of 135 or best of generation. Gleneagles(128) Most certainly underrated by my own ratings, but that due too poor competition and mile form. Time Test(122) The time experts have gone crazy with the Tercentenary Stakes win TF have 130P, dubious too my eyes,but very promising. A great race if all turn up? |
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I'd be backing Gleneagles if Moore was fit. Not so sure without him though.
Do we even know who's riding yet ? I assume it's Colm O'Donoghue, who was on board for his only defeat (albeit first run). |
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If the weather forecast is right its going to be at least gd on Weds, prob more g/f, thats what all the big players want imo, esp Gleneagles. Think young Joe will do the weight & ride Glen, he managed 8-12 in last yrs race & has already done 9-0 on a gd few mounts so far this yr, would not think an extra 2lb lighter with be to much trouble to him in mid summer.
Fingers X all goes well with the main horses between now & then  looking forward to it |
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Wouldn't want him struggling too much or putting up overweight though. I'd prefer JOB if he could do the weight.
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Market a bit worrying at moment if your a TGG backer? Out to 17s from what was 10s-11s area only a few days ago.
Not sure what plans are for the rags, though presume the bottom two def run given their pacemakers? The Corsican will he won't he? So backed Glen and TT each way 7/2 and 9/2 3 places given that it is increasingly looking likely proper filthy each way antepost but won't be day of race as looking likely to be less than 8 runners cutting up much like the eclipse did |
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Would have no doubts about GLENEAGLES staying 10f on dosage index-his number is very similar to that well known doubtful stayer GOLDEN HORN.....
Just a question of which is the better colt for me.... |
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Golden Horn has done everything asked of him so far, including stepping back in trip against a very good older yardstick to win an Eclipse. It is very difficult to find a reason to oppose him. Fresh in my memory is the run of Al Kazeem here two years ago, when he was apparently outpaced on the good to firm ground by a horse who he'd beaten comfortably at Sandown. So my only slight concern is of the ground drying out so that it's practically firm come race time. Under these circumstances, the flat track might just find him out for speed, or at least minimise the stamina requirements for this race, which are often underrated (compare how many 12f horses have won this as opposed to the Eclipse in the last 20 years). If it's already good to firm 48 hours before the race, with no rain forecast, surely they'd be thinking of putting some water on tomorrow, were it not for the noises made by Ballydoyle? I hope they make an objective decision ...
Gleneagles won a solid looking Guineas very well but was complacently ridden in Ireland, doing well to win under the circumstances. His Ascot run is practically worthless as a piece of group 1 form. I do not like 3yos stepping up in trip for the first time in this race. He has a lot to prove, including whether he's actually good enough to beat top class rivals. The ground looks like giving him every assistance, and he undoubtedly has toughness and an iron will to win. I was hoping he'd be a shorter price than this, which is already much too short for me. Time Test has won a handicap and a urine-thin group 3. Please point me towards the last horse to win a reasonably competitive Juddmonte with this sort of prep. Absolutely no chance whatsoever. A truly incredible price. The Grey Gatsby: rock solid 10 furlong Group 1 horse about to run on his favourite track. The discrepancy in price between him and the 2nd and 3rd in the market is astounding. Take out the fav and I'd make him the bet of the season as 3rd fav against the 3yos. Verdict: straight forecast, Golden Horn to beat Gatsby. Small win bet on Gatsby just in case. |
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I backed The Grey Gatsby at 11/2 to beat Golden Horn in the Eclipse but I couldn't touch him here even though he's available at double those odds. Most of us agreed that this year's POW looked a below par renewal before and after the race but I was encouraged by the manner in which TGG performed and thought he could improve on that in the Eclipse, however, after looking dangerous for a while I thought ultimately he was disappointing, the POW run is as good as he is and for me he's a horse that hasn't improved at all from 3 to 4.
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The current odds for Golden Horn are so poor they verge on the obscene and do not reflect the competitive nature of the race, imagine there had have been just a little bit of trouble in running in the eclipse,would he have passed TGG?,and now he comes up against the crack miler on possible fast ground, I do fancy GH but what a ridiculous price, at current odds TGG for a place would seem value.
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Does anyone know if they're gonna take the head gear off TGG? He beat Australia without it.
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TGG declared with a 'p' so guess that means cheek pieces if that helps metro john
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Tar.
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Can see Gleneagles being withdrawn again if the latest forecast proves correct - York looks like getting a lot of rain tomorrow, sadly. Could really ruin things:
. http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcx4z4e44#?fcTime=1439856000 |
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Looks like light rain till early on Wednesday, so Gleneagles running would be a big call for AO'B.
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Opinion unchanged. Will back Golden Horn to win and The Grey Gatsby each way.
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I do wonder if 12f is needed too be seen to best effect,but ok at 10f
I agree, Metro John, that Golden Horn's optimum distance is 12f, not because he's better at that distance but because the wfa scale allows 3yos an extra 2lbs over the trip, as the wfa scale rates that on average 3yos are 2lbs worse over 12f than 10f. I roughly agree with this although I think it's usually anywhere between 2 and 4lbs. After ducking the King George I was surprised to hear Gosden say GH barely gets 12f, as for me his Derby performance was every bit as good on the clock as his runs at 10f, which is unusual, as was previously mentioned 3yos are generally slightly slower over 12f. The fastest 3yo performance I've rated all year was Gleneagles in the Guineas. Nothing exceptional compared to recent Guineas winners but still decent and better than anything else I've seen this year. Nobody can say for sure if he'll get this trip but as I thought he had a shout at getting the Derby distance I'm more than hopeful he'll be ok over this trip. I don't just think that Gleneagles is a value bet I believe he's the better horse so I'm having a decent bet at these odds, hopefully the ground conditions will allow him to run. |
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it seems crazy that i can back gleneagles at 5/1 on here for the win ,am such a fan of the horse ,but that can and has blurred my judgement in the past .I love what golden horn did at sandown ,it showed all his qualities in my view ,many a good horse has been beating in them circumstances as the grey gastby was on his shoulder the whole way , and when he came at him maybe even headed him , he battled him and was going away at the line .aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaahhh i love them both ,might just back the old cougar each way ,chances are a couple in the market ahead of him will most likely get buggered by trying to go and compete with the big two ,and good old cougar will come sailing threw have n not done a tap all race ,pass all the beating horse to nick third and coolmore will have there stallion ,ie.................lots of speed , finished third in vintage juddmonte ,it will be PR heaven for them .I've only been big into racing since 08 newapproach and lush lashes give me the bug ,but i have never been as excited about a race as i have been about this .
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don't really have a view on this race, suppose there are a few people around who think Gleneagles is the better horse,
for me Gleneagles has had a much easier campaign so far this year than golden horn, totally understand people looking at this race from a value perspective and going for gelneagles, difficult to get excited about odds on shots. will be hoping that they all get there racing conditions and the best horse wins. if that's golden horn sweeping late for victory so be it or Gleneagles holding on for the win. happy to watch this race and enjoy and let them battle. gl all |
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I won't be backing anything eway until O'Brien makes a final decision. The ground is likely to be no better than Goodwood, and it might even be slower ground.
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Currently chucking it down at York!
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