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Facts
04 Aug 15 09:48
Joined:
Date Joined: 05 May 03
| Topic/replies: 29,105 | Blogger: Facts's blog
Early days I know.
Really keen on Astronereus. Still improving, ran a great race at Goodwood, and already a CD winner at York. Connections  sure to target this race ?

The 16/1 with  Lads  is very tempting.Happy
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Report Madhu August 4, 2015 3:03 PM BST
I took a punt on Fields of Athenry and Fun Mac yesterday before the forfeit stage today, both need around 10 horses above them to come out. The former reminds me of Honolulu who as a lightly raced 3yo off 111 ran 2nd to Purple Moon before coming 3rd in the St Leger, while the latter is on the up and overpriced compared to fav Clondaw Warrior who would appear unlikely to get in- same point would apply to Bondi Beach, Aloft and Battersea, others prominent in the early bookie prices. Quick Jack might struggle to get in as well.

Fields of Athenry is entered in a Group 3 at Leopardstown on Thursday?

Fun Mac was second to Clondaw Warrior in the Ascot Stakes, trying to concede 7lb over two and a half miles.

"Fun Mac is not a slow horse, he's quicker then Vent De Force and works very well with the grey horse (Arab Dawn)," said Morrison.

"I wouldn't be frightened to bring him back to a mile and six.He's got a touch of class and maybe we haven't seen the best of him yet."

Good luck on Astronereus Facts- Coombelands have a good record in the race but they were all 3yo's?
Report PJay August 4, 2015 4:00 PM BST
The last ten winners include SPs of: 100/1, 25/1, 25/1, 25/1 and 20/1. Not easy this one.
Report IrisDeBalme August 4, 2015 5:53 PM BST
I backed him before he ran at Goodwood thinking he would win and be half the price but it was a good performance - unlucky not to win, I think this is main target as more suited to the track.

I haven't touched any of the others as Im not sure what the running plans are but CLONDAW WARRIOR is interesting anyone know if he will run in this?
Report PJay August 4, 2015 10:01 PM BST

Aug 4, 2015 -- 11:53AM, IrisDeBalme wrote:


I backed him before he ran at Goodwood thinking he would win and be half the price but it was a good performance - unlucky not to win, I think this is main target as more suited to the track.I haven't touched any of the others as Im not sure what the running plans are but CLONDAW WARRIOR is interesting anyone know if he will run in this?


Mullins after Galway: "I'd imagine he'll probably go for the Ebor if he gets in, if I can just freshen him up again that will be the plan. It's a lovely prize."

Report IrisDeBalme August 5, 2015 11:14 AM BST
Thanks PJay - yes CLONDAW WARRIOR he needs quite a few to come out 20 max field and he is number 40 .. but if he did make the cut will be a very short price indeed. I have backed him @12a as your money back if he misses the cut...
Report Facts August 5, 2015 6:45 PM BST
31 now Iris.
Report Millerracing67 August 5, 2015 7:46 PM BST
Liked the chances of Battersea for this for some time, had a few ££ ew @ 25s with hills a few wks ago.
Hopefully the ground will be g/f like last yrs running.
He needs to step up on his 2 runs so far this season (on g/soft) but granted gd/fast ground i think he will run a big race, stable are in very gd form over the past month after a slow start to the season.
Off of 99 i would expect him to make the cut near the bottom end.
Will be heading down to York for the 4days Cool so hope the gd weather holds up for the week.
He is my only play so far, early days yet as u say.
Report Facts August 5, 2015 10:11 PM BST
Good luck over the 4 days Happy
Report zilzal1 August 5, 2015 10:23 PM BST
Going two handed, hopefully Field of Athenry dots up tomorrow, thatsthe only one of Aidens left in@14s and id always forgive a Horse a bad run at Goodwood and before that, Farquahar looked coming right back to form and i'll wait a little while but 33 is very fair imo
Report metro john August 6, 2015 7:40 AM BST
I like  Arabian Comet e/w 25/1+ looks reasonable, would expect about that price come the hour, Haggis hopefully got this tuned up for a big effort.
Report Millerracing67 August 6, 2015 3:17 PM BST
Cheers facts Cool York has been a gd £££ track for me over the yrs.
Yes metro, Haggis does well with his horses in the big hcaps at York over the yrs, Arabian Comet ran a cracker in the Galtres at this meeting last yr.
Report jameschildshieldwinner August 13, 2015 10:35 PM BST
Does fields of athenry get a penalty for winning at leopardstown?
Report IrisDeBalme August 14, 2015 10:19 AM BST
FRANKIE Dettori is set to ride Clondaw Warrior in the £275,000 Betfred Ebor on Saturday week, spearheading a formidable Irish challenge in Britain's most lucrative Flat handicap

Well that confirms Clondaw as a definite - my main fancy now.
Report Facts August 14, 2015 12:58 PM BST
Money down now on my two against the field :-

Fields Of Athenry 8/1  - class horse,rapidly improving 3 yo.could be a wholesale gamble on this ?

Astronerous 16/1. - see opening post.

Some lovely horses in this, should be a cracking race. Looking forward to the whole 4 days next week
Good luck all.
Report Millerracing67 August 14, 2015 3:59 PM BST
Yes, gd move to snap up the services of Frankie by Willie Mullins, he must have a big chance.
Looks like AOB's 3yo F O A is going to take his chance, watching him win the other day, i would be concerned about him on very fast ground at York, like it was in last yrs Ebor. He has a high knee action & hits the ground quite hard to my eye, hope u have got NR no bet with him Facts.
Report SEATHESTARS....NO1 August 14, 2015 6:02 PM BST
Bit of a 50/50 reading that latest article on the Ebor for me. Having started my portfolio on the race last week

Fields of Athenry 14/1, Wadi Al Hattawi 20/1 and Oasis Fantasy 25/1 (last named may not get in was number 45 last i looked)

Clondaw was one of them i was also looking at but felt that i should wait a little for any news out of the mullins camp as to which one if not both but now looks like he is preparing to run both, he was 12/1 when the market opened and now although still 10s with korals (i h8 that outfit with a passion) i feel therefore may have missed the boat a little as also annoys me as probably everyone else that as soon as a jockey is announced it therefore gives the layers more excuse to cut. The other Wicklow Brave is still at the same price 16s maybe added at the 5 day stage if his price holds up both with the books and most importantly on here.
Report Madhu August 17, 2015 11:17 AM BST
Added another 2 arrows in Ajman Bridge and Libran to add to Fields Of Athenry and Fun Mac. Added Libran as I think it will probably cut up quite a bit at the forfeit stage today because of the Lonsdale and likelihood of fast ground.

jameschildshieldwinner would presume FOA has a 4lb penalty but RP has not updated.

Good luck everyone
Report Madhu August 17, 2015 12:39 PM BST
Looks like around 9 have come out above Clondaw Warrior, so he looks like getting in.
Report SEATHESTARS....NO1 August 17, 2015 1:25 PM BST
Oasis Fantasy not among them Cry ffs he was number 45 you would think they would have left him in to be balloted out!
Report SEATHESTARS....NO1 August 17, 2015 1:48 PM BST
I added Clondaw Warrior the other day, bit the bullet and added him after posting the above as felt there was still a bit of value in the 10s. Also added Astronereous at 14s and Farquhar at 33s while i was in my local stan james shop who price matches local firms in the village Wink
Report SEATHESTARS....NO1 August 17, 2015 1:56 PM BST
Quest For More, as short as 10-1 for Saturday's Betfred Ebor, will instead contest the Weatherbys Hamilton Lonsdale Cup on Friday.

Trainer Roger Charlton wrote on his website on Monday: "Quest for More will be confirmed for the Ebor today as a back up, but is an intended runner in the Weatherbys Hamilton Lonsdale Cup on Friday, where he will lock horns with his old rivals Trip to Paris and Big Orange, along with a few others."


SO WHAT HAVE KORALS AND B'VICTOR DONE??? Chopped his price! Unbelievable he's even still in the market with most firms but to chop his price too?
Report metro john August 17, 2015 2:26 PM BST
Arabian Comet remains my main e/w hope, but plenty of value in both the Godolphin runners,and  have had savers on both.
Report Madhu August 17, 2015 3:37 PM BST
I think there are still quite a few that won’t run in this-

Obviously Quest for More, Havana Beat has Probert booked in the Lonsdale, both of Koukash’s- Angel Gabrial and Suegioo- are in a Listed race at Chester on Saturday as well as the Lonsdale, Arabian Comet would be strongly fancied in the Galtres with Haggas winning the last 2 runnings, and Litigant needs soft ground. I just hope Highclere/Swinbank declare Libran.
Report Madhu August 17, 2015 4:51 PM BST
Some interesting trends- http://sportinglife.racecaller.com/horse-racing-forum/upcoming-big-races/ebo...

3 year olds have a fine record since 2000, winning it in 2000 & 2001 and seeing 6 of their 9 representatives since 2002 making the places. Aidan O’Brien (0-3-5) does particularly well with his 3yos. The four 3yos he has saddled since 2000 have finished 1st-3rd-2nd-2nd. This bodes well for Fields Of Athenry who is rated higher enough to get in with a generous WFA allowance, and with only around a 10lb weight range.

By comparison, in the last 30 years, there have only been 2 winners aged older than 5, moreover- 7yo+: 0-2-16.  That doesn’t bode well for Clondaw Warrior, also Mullins Sesenta was a 5yo.

Although 9 of 10 winners had run in past 55 days, Fun Mac (67 days) has Crowley booked and goes well fresh.

Ajman Bridge- "He hasn't won in nearly two years but is still progressing," said the trainer. "He was second at Royal Ascot in the Duke of Edinburgh and was beaten only half a length into fourth at Glorious Goodwood when we stepped him up to one mile and six furlongs for the first time. He goes there with a real chance."- Cumani (2-1-7) has won the race three times since 1999 and 4 of his 7 runners in past 10 years have made the first 5 home.

Interestingly, 8 of last 9 winners were drawn in the highest 7 stalls. Hopefully my 4 arrows will be in those 7! Good luck.
Report unitedbiscuits August 17, 2015 6:16 PM BST
A fascinating race.
I'm playing the angle that the Irish horses have that bit extra (the name that keeps coming up for the home side is Fun Mac but why would he reverse form with Clondaw Warrior?)
I'll stand corrected, but I'll be surprised if 2pt ew and 1pt CTC
FIELDS OF ATHENRY
QUICK JACK
CLONDAW WARRIOR
doesn't yeild a profit.
Report FELTFAIR August 17, 2015 7:33 PM BST
If he runs I shall back Big Thunder each way.
Report Benjy August 17, 2015 10:51 PM BST
Libran for me. Taking some 20/1 antepost but will probably go back in on the day all being well.
Report FELTFAIR August 18, 2015 8:44 PM BST
Must have had a brain storm, I meant Nearly Caught each way if he runs and not Big Thunder.
Report Facts August 18, 2015 9:53 PM BST
Big Thunder runs tomorrow - and wins ! Hopefully Happy
Report Benjy August 19, 2015 10:43 PM BST
I see Libran is declared for the first on Friday. Surely not... Plain
Report Madhu August 19, 2015 10:51 PM BST
Benjy I think Libran will be double declared and once declararions are made after 10am tomorrow for the Ebor, if he gets in will be a non-runner Friday.
Report Benjy August 19, 2015 10:59 PM BST
Hope you're right Libran. Suppose he does still need 5 to come out. Going to struggle actually isn't he, only Quest for More an obvious absentee?
Report Madhu August 19, 2015 11:14 PM BST
I just hope they declare him as if he is balloted out stakes are returned. Because of the weather I think it is hard to call but the jockeys bookings suggest he might squeak in. QFM, HB the top 2, no jock on AGab, ExRes or BSurf? Talked myself into topping up on him!
Report PJay August 20, 2015 10:13 AM BST
Litigant the last one to make it in. No Clondaw Warrior, no Libran.
Report Madhu August 20, 2015 10:43 AM BST
Ante post is a crystal ball minefield
Report Madhu August 20, 2015 10:45 AM BST
Quest For Fame is doubly declared so all is not lost on Clondaw Warrior?
Report PJay August 20, 2015 10:47 AM BST
Yeah he has a chance.
Report BlazingWalker August 20, 2015 12:15 PM BST
Anyone know which horses were balloted out or know were we can find a list of them , thanks.
Report Millerracing67 August 20, 2015 12:36 PM BST
Am hoping Battersea was balloted out of the cut?  get my ante-p bet back if so.
Report Madhu August 20, 2015 12:53 PM BST
Just read Fields Of Athenry will be ridden by Donnacha O'Brien. Positive stat considering claimers (3-1-15) have ridden 3 of the last 6 winners of the Ebor. Brings him down to 9 stone 2.
Report SEATHESTARS....NO1 August 20, 2015 1:44 PM BST
If CLONDAW WARRIOR doesn't get to run, does he go down as balloted out as far as antepost bets go or do you lose your money?Confused

With this reserve situation, it is an interesting question I for one have never thought about!Plain
Report jameschildshieldwinner August 20, 2015 1:48 PM BST
Clondaw warrior will be counted as balloted out, so yes you will get your money back.
Report STELLAR MANIPULATOR August 20, 2015 2:15 PM BST
Bit of a strange one Charlton declaring the top weight even though it is already declared in the Lonsdale tomorrow. Presuming that there are two chances he will run in both races , why was he left in the Ebor potentially depriving a reserve of a run if he comes out after lunchtime Friday ? If I was being cynical , I would suggest that it may be in the interest of someone to keep out one of the ante post favourites ( Clondaw W ) , in the absence of a logical explanation for this behaviour ( ground maybe ? ) would the Stewards investigate the motivation here ? If there is an ulterior motive for declaring this horse with little chance of it running would this be a further argument for letting in reserves on the day and not just up to lunchtime the previous day ?
Report Madhu August 20, 2015 2:45 PM BST
Charlton said: "He is a fast ground horse, so therefore there has to be a doubt about running in this race [Lonsdale Cup].

"If we have a really drying day and there is no rain overnight and it is sunny tomorrow and the jockeys say it is riding much quicker than he will probably run.

"If, on the other hand, it is slower and it rains again tonight then he has to be a serious doubt. If he didn't run and there was a prospect of getting faster ground on Saturday I would consider the Ebor but I appreciate the second favourite is now first reserve so to be decent to everybody I would really have to make a decision by nine o'clock tomorrow [Friday] morning." Roger Charlton has booked Daniel Tudhope on QFM in the Ebor with George Baker already booked for rides at Sandown Saturday.

The plot thickens?

Spent 20 minutes trying to open an account with 10Bet- who are they? through Oddschecker after they advertised 16/1 on Clondaw Warrior NRNB over an hour ago, what a waste of time that was- froze the computer and then they suspended betting. Quacks
Report STELLAR MANIPULATOR August 20, 2015 2:52 PM BST
I owe Roger an apology for having the temerity to suggest possible skullduggery on his part and his rationale is impeccable as is his awareness of the consequences of his actions. The BHA recently extended the timeline for withdrawal from 9.30am to 1pm so as to allow reserves get in so Roger has a bit more time than he thought to make his decision. If the forecast is correct , it is unlikely that the ground will be faster on Saturday as while there are showers forecast both days , they could be thundery in nature on Saturday
Report Millerracing67 August 20, 2015 5:47 PM BST
Money back off Battersea for not making the cut. With all the overnight wet stuff about in York, its prob the best result for me, he wants fast ground to be seen at his best.
The Ebor is fast becoming a very difficult race to get into Sad need to be rated 100+ nearly to get a run Plain
Report STELLAR MANIPULATOR August 20, 2015 7:50 PM BST
One of the two 99s got in this year but the BHA elimination rules in relation to horses on the same weight are strange to say the least discriminating as they do against the horse who has incurred a penalty since the weights were published - the penalty for winning a race after publication of Ebor weights is an automatic 4lbs which in the vast majority of cases will be less than the actual penalty the winner will get for winning a handicap. Yet , in the Grand National , priority will be given to the horse with the highest current rating at the declaration stage where two horses are assigned the same weight at entry stage - where is the consistency in these two scenarios ? And don't even get me started on the patent discrimation a three old suffers trying to get into the Ebor - a 3yo would have to be rated 112 to get into the  Ebor this year yet the Ebor is ostensibly open to 3yos a bit like the Ritz is also open to all !
Report STELLAR MANIPULATOR August 20, 2015 7:51 PM BST
discrimination
Report Benjy August 21, 2015 5:59 PM BST
My not so shortlist Blush
Quick Jack
Wicklow Brave
Wadi Al Hattawi
Nearly Caught
Litigant

GL all
Report FELTFAIR August 21, 2015 7:33 PM BST
He`s running,Nearly Caught each way.
Report Platini August 21, 2015 8:34 PM BST
Like the look of Litigant at that price.
Report Millerracing67 August 21, 2015 9:11 PM BST
Few £££ ew on Quick Jack for me 2moro @ the best odds on offer.
He looks sure to go well.
Report sapphire August 22, 2015 12:55 AM BST
Irish winner but not the talked about ones.Toe the LIne hold up horse with right man for such J Spencer.last run behind Panama Hat hugely endorsed
Report FELTFAIR August 22, 2015 10:49 AM BST
Have decided to back Quick Jack each way as well as the earlier post.
Report Facts August 22, 2015 3:56 PM BST
Benjy and Platini ! Wow ! Very well done .
Report Madhu August 22, 2015 4:05 PM BST
Yes well done Platini and Benjy, and PJay.
Report Benjy August 22, 2015 5:55 PM BST
Cheers Grin Slightly annoyed I went with forecasts not exactas Silly Turned into a good week!

Great performance from all concerned with the horse.
Report Platini August 22, 2015 7:53 PM BST
typical, first decent priced winner I've had in ages and I forget to include in the big flat races thread Sad
Report IrisDeBalme August 22, 2015 10:34 PM BST
well done winners... particularly Benjy - good shortlist
Report PJay August 22, 2015 11:17 PM BST

Aug 22, 2015 -- 10:05AM, Madhu wrote:


Yes well done Platini and Benjy, and PJay.


Ta!

Report sageform August 23, 2015 9:58 AM BST
An amazing winner on the basis of 491 days off, by a sire who had only one other winner this season, and all his recent form on AW but after Arabian Queen and Mecca's Angel, it was great to see smaller trainers and owners getting some of the prizes for a change. I had a poor day yesterday after following William Haggas on days 1 and 2, I managed to choose Raucous instead of Ajaya yesterday and my Ebor bets, Astronereus and Wadi Al Hatawi wre tailed off and pulled up! Well done winners.
Report Benjy August 29, 2015 8:26 PM BST
Wadi Al Hattawi won comfortably today after pulling up last week. Denied me the tricast Silly
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