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The Big O
08 Jul 15 00:51
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Date Joined: 05 Dec 06
| Topic/replies: 413 | Blogger: The Big O's blog
Comes through the Coventry which was stronger/faster than the Windsor Castle and yet Areen/Steady Pace are ahead of him in the early betting.
For what it's worth the yard have won four of the last five.
Anyone think he shouldn't be clear top pick there? Or disagree that the Coventry was stronger/faster?
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Report Howellsy July 8, 2015 6:27 AM BST
I made Eltezam's time in the Cov very ordinary, and both Areen and Steady Pace were much quicker over 5f. Why won't Elronaq finish in front of Eltezam, having raced only twice and not being that far behind him on debut?
Report sintonian July 8, 2015 7:11 AM BST
Hannon yard form a question mark? Had 11 second last week but only 1 recent winner
Report Stevie Gerrard July 8, 2015 1:56 PM BST
My figures do have the windsor castle pair ahead of Eltezam.
Also Orvar should be considered too as he did do best of those that raced up the centre in the windsor castle.
Like Howellsy I also think Elronaq could reverse Haydock form as horses can come on a lot for first run, nto he made all off a steady pace and hard to tell just how good that was.
I also gave Sixth Sense a decent figure in the Jersey stakes and possibly disappointed at Newbury time before due to racing into that headwind.
I think at the current prices then I'd risk Orvar.
Report Figgis July 8, 2015 2:00 PM BST
I have Eltezam top rated but only by 1lb. In my view the 5f strip at Ascot often rides a bit quicker than the rest of the straight, particularly on dry hot days, there have been too many examples of this for it just to be a hunch. Whether it happened on the first day at Royal Ascot can only be an estimation but I believe it did so a strict comparison between the 5f and 6f races could be misleading. I have the King's Stand as the worst winning performance I can remember for the race. I think Sixth Sense is in the mix as he looked to weaken over the 7f and I have him close behind Eltezam. Too tricky a race to have any strong opinions on, though, as these 2yos can show erratic improvement, as Buratino showed with his run before the Coventry.
Report sintonian July 8, 2015 11:24 PM BST
Steady Pace for me eachway, 5/1.
Report The Big O July 9, 2015 3:42 AM BST
Interesting stuff. I can't have the Windsor Castle quicker than the Coventry myself, and I assume this comes down to standards and how we calculate them.
Like Figgis I made the Kings Stand a woeful race for the grade and the Windsor P just around what would be expected.
Coventry quicker for mine but of course the horse in question was beaten 4 so in terms of actual figures I will agree there is little between them (or Sixth Sense for that matter) but I prefer the horse that has run it over 6f and think he should be at the top of the market - albeit a competitive market.
Report Stevie Gerrard July 9, 2015 2:19 PM BST
ended up just having a small bet on Orvar at 9/1.
Can see this being a real close finish as not much in it on my figures
But we shall see
Report Stevie Gerrard July 9, 2015 2:47 PM BST
Well 1 horse did step up and improve, looked pretty good that and a gap back to the 3rd.
Be interesting to see what figure he gets, probably wont be as high as Ivawood last year though.
wd on the e/w Sint
Report Stevie Gerrard July 9, 2015 3:16 PM BST
Sectionals are up on turftrax now, could only give a very small mark up to performance myself.
I would say Eltezam has run to his coventry form, Steady Pace stepped up a little bit from his windsor castle run.
I suppose if that is the case then you'd have the winner on a similar figure to Buratino on form.
Ground would appear to be good on time.
Report Navel-Gazer July 9, 2015 3:18 PM BST
Kemo Sabe's thread on the main forum had that race nailed...alas, I don't listen very well Sad
Report The Big O July 10, 2015 5:24 AM BST
Even effort. Outpaced? Maybe. Winner a nice horse but sneaky chance that they are all a pack of evenly matched yaks looking back at it.
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