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sintonian
21 May 15 07:02
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Date Joined: 21 Sep 04
| Topic/replies: 28,673 | Blogger: sintonian's blog
Free Eagle 4/1
The Grey Gatsby 5/1
California Chrome 12/1
Ectot 12/1
Tryster 16/1
Postponed 16/1
Al Kazeem 16/1

A shame Free Eagle misses his run this weekend in the Tattersalls Gold Cup. You would now expect TGG to win that and his odds shorten.

Ectot reportedly heads straight here first time out.

Tryster I think runs in the Brigadier Gerard at Sandown next.
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Report Madhu May 21, 2015 3:08 PM BST
I've taken a position with Tryster a while ago and Postponed today, I hope they both hose up in their preps.Who do you fancy sint?

Back     Your
Odds     Your
Stake     Your
Profit
Tryster     17.41    
Postponed     23.4
Report sintonian May 21, 2015 7:32 PM BST
Nothing grabs me at the prices Madhu. I think everyone is waiting to see just how good Free Eagle can be so i'd stick with him until his potential has been realised, or not, as the case may be!

Ectot an interesting runner too. Looked awesome before his Arc flop.
Report Zagreb May 21, 2015 10:31 PM BST
I think california chrome is a great price at 12s. He's one of the top 10f dirt horses in the world and already a grade 1 winner on turf,admittedly a very weak one. This has the look of a race that could cut up a bit. I think dettori has been booked to ride and if he makes the race and there is fast ground on the wednesday, i think he'll be hard to beat.
Report sintonian May 22, 2015 7:53 PM BST
What puts me off him is the trainer being so negative about runner over here. It is very much an owner driven decision.
Report Zagreb May 22, 2015 8:26 PM BST
Thats true. The trainer was adamant after dubai that the horse needed a break and thats surely right. I hope hes freshened up for missing the lockinge. I just thought the 12s was too big to ignore. Verrazano ran well here last year and imo would be a few lbs off cal chrome at his best.

Free eagle does look very good but we've only really seen him at his best on his leopardstown run last year. I know he's only reported to have a little cold but it would be a worry about a horse who missed so much of last year with niggling problems.
Report sintonian May 23, 2015 1:45 PM BST
Yes, fair points. It's hard to bet him until he turns up at the track.
Report sintonian June 1, 2015 9:10 PM BST
Free Eagle running in this first time out I presume. Concern or not?
Report Paterson92 June 1, 2015 11:03 PM BST
Wouldn't touch him with a barge pole ante-post that's for sure.
Report sintonian June 4, 2015 9:06 PM BST
Todays news is that Al Kazeem will miss the race and the Eclipse due to a leg injury.

Yesterday, connections of Ectot said all is well and is bang on course for Ascot.
Report sintonian June 7, 2015 4:15 PM BST
The Moyglare Stud-owned colt had been due to run in the Tattersalls Gold Cup at the Curragh last month, but suffered what was described as a head cold and no chances were taken.

Weld said: "Free Eagle is in good form. He will do a bit of work later in the week and then we will decide where he'll go."

A son of High Chaparral, Free Eagle has raced just four times. His final start of last season saw him finish third to Noble Mission in the Qipco Champion Stakes at Ascot.

Imminent engagements for Weld's charge include the Prince of Wales's Stakes and Hardwicke Stakes at Royal Ascot, and the Coral-Eclipse.
Report sintonian June 7, 2015 4:17 PM BST
Never considered he may run in the Hardwicke. On paper it's an easier race but he'd face Telescope over 12f.

When news broke about Al Kazeem missing the race last week Ectot was still available at 12/1 in a couple of places for around 45 mins after so I backed him at that price (posted on Flat Turf thread). If FE does not run he'd be the favourite, bizzarely, as I thought TGG ran below par last time out and is maybe not as good as he looked last season.
Report sintonian June 9, 2015 7:51 PM BST
Weld confirms in todays paper FE is very well and will run.

Gail Chop also said to be in top form and will run. He was second to Solow last time out when having his first start of the year. Could look good form in the not too distant future. Top price 20/1.
Report MrDinos June 9, 2015 8:14 PM BST
Looks like it's going to be dry next week but if there was some rain around Gailo Chop would be very interesting, followed him last year and was impressed with his comeback run after a long lay off. With the going likely to be good/quick ground Spielberg is the one I've backed EW, he's lightly raced for 6yr old and he ran a couple of crackers last Autumn in the Tenno Sho (won) and Japan Cup. I think he's slightly overpriced at 16-1 at the moment, the news today that Soumillon will be riding is a bonus. I also think Criterion will run well and he's a nice EW price, connections have said his work has been very good the last couple of weeks. Three lively EW chances IMO... it's going to be a fantastic race this one.
Report sintonian June 9, 2015 8:18 PM BST
It does look like having some strength in depth. Tom Segal will have his say soon so some prices will contract. Yesterday someone tipped Cannock Chase hence his shortening.
Report MrDinos June 9, 2015 8:33 PM BST
Yep, Gary Nutting on the ATR Royal Ascot microsite tipped CC Sint.

There are a few question marks regarding the top four in the betting, Free Eagle and Ectot haven't run this year... how race fit are they? The Grey Gatsby has looked a bit sluggish in his last two runs and California Chrome on turf is a strange move IMO! I think there is some good EW value at the moment.
Report MrDinos June 15, 2015 7:23 PM BST
Looks like California Chrome is out with a foot problem, a real shame for his connections. They seemed to be having a fun time over here and the race has lost a little bit of sparkle now.

I'm glad I backed Spielberg ante post, all the prices are going to shorten again now.
Report FELTFAIR June 16, 2015 5:39 PM BST
After yesterday`s disappointment just one bet. Ectot e-w hoping he can deliver his pre Arc form.
Report johnn June 16, 2015 7:09 PM BST
I am highly hopeful of a huge performance from Cannock Chase tomorrow.
Report morpteh mackem June 16, 2015 10:04 PM BST
no-one give western hymn a chance ?
Report johnn June 16, 2015 10:08 PM BST
Only at Sanders Silly
Report metro john June 16, 2015 11:18 PM BST
Gailo Chop is value, is my bet e/w in the race, make all(not too quick, kick on  3f hang on) or not?
Report sintonian June 17, 2015 7:01 AM BST
On Ectot ante-post, saver on the favourite.

GL all.
Report Figgis June 17, 2015 11:44 AM BST
A tricky race as we just don't know if Free Eagle has progressed. Like all horses he needs to improve from 3 to 4 to still cut it at the top level. This has been the problem so far with The Grey Gatsby this year, he hasn't lost his form he's just been running to the same level as when he was a 3yo but obviously he doesn't get the allowance anymore, there's still time for him to improve but I'd rather see evidence of it first. If Free Eagle has progressed then he should win but that's not the sort of risk I want to be taking at the price. I wasn't that impressed with Ectot last year but it will be interesting to see if he's improved.

The rest also need to improve unless this is going to be a substandard event but the one who tops my ratings this year is Western Hymn. Even if it turns out to be a decent running he can still scrape a place and if it does turn out to be substandard he could even win. He's overpriced and worth an each way bet.
Report harry callaghan June 17, 2015 12:05 PM BST
Figgis why do you think free eagles price is to short i thought he was a tad of value here at 3-1 should be a lot shorter against these horses...
Report Figgis June 17, 2015 12:20 PM BST
Harry, as I said all horses (well maybe not Frankel Wink) need to improve from 3 to 4. For instance, I see Timeform have him 129p. Assuming that rating was from his Champion Stakes third then 5lbs of that rating is an added on allowance due to wfa. Actually I don't know if Timeform use the same official 5lbs at that stage of the year, but you know what I mean. Therefore he's going to need to improve 5lbs just to achieve the same rating as a 4yo. Maybe he will but I just don't believe all horses improve the same amount at the same rate and for me his price isn't worth that risk.
Report harry callaghan June 17, 2015 1:22 PM BST
fair comments i prefer his leopardstown run against proven handicappers/listed horses was how i rated him, ascot ground was brutal against hardened types in the champion and he was just to inexperienced imo

he has only had 4 starts and his brother custom cut has improved rapidly with age(trainer change clearly helped) so i do see him improving, i don't think he has to improve much to beat these horses with conditions looking ideal, he also goes particularly well off the lay off as well....we will see but i thought he was a tad of value, more because of the horses he is running against tbh
Report Howellsy June 17, 2015 1:43 PM BST
Figgis, I differ slightly in that I have Gatsby and Eagle a few pounds clear on last year's form. My worry about Gatsby is that he needs a sustained strong pace, as at Leopardstown, at this level, and I can't see him getting it today. He will have a lot of ground to make up in the straight and his only hope is if they get racing too early and collapse close home. I think Free Eagle has fewer limitations but on reviewing the Ascot race I felt he took a long time to close the gap on the front pair so maybe I have rated him too high on the actual result. It may be that he will be at his best over 12f. This is aside from the worry about whether a horse can win even a weak renewal first time out. It's so disappointing not to feel more confident about such a marquee group 1, my usual staple, but none of the runners makes real appeal. In the end I have to agree that Western Hymn might just offer the best compromise, but I didn't have him down as a POW winner after Sandown and still lack conviction.
Report A_T June 17, 2015 4:13 PM BST
disappointing turn out hard to believe there's a middle distance champ here
Report Figgis June 17, 2015 4:43 PM BST
You were right, harry. On first impressions I don't really know what to make of that for the future, the slow pace confuses things.
Report harry callaghan June 17, 2015 4:57 PM BST
ye tricky figgis with the winner being so fragile, a lot of people feel the gatsby was unlucky and he was to an extent but the winner deserves credit for doing it the hard way and there is a head wind there today as well, at least the good horses came to the fore and the winner has had just 5 life time starts now, so hopefully can go on, not sure i see him as an arc horse, as weld likes that race for him

i did think it was a weak affair before the race class wise and am happy to keep a lid on it, similar to the queen anne tbh
Report sintonian June 17, 2015 6:58 PM BST
wd harry.

Shocker from Ectot.
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