VICTORIA HANDICAP - ASCOT

I think that Russian Realm might improve for the switch to O'Meara and has been a horse on my radar to win a big pot. He has run really well at Ascot a couple of times and is on the same mark as when 2nd on the wrong side on its final start last year.

I note that he has been gelded although I don't know if that is recent but if it is it could make a big difference as it seemed last year as if there was just something holding it back.

This a ferociously tough race to find the winner though somehow I managed to find Gabrials Lad last year (whats happened to him?).

I agree Iris, think Lincoln has a big handicap in him this year and it could be worth noting that he wasnt even entered at Chester this week, given he dotted up in a 7f handicap there last year (will be interesting to see how Newstead Heath, the horse I was on that day who was gambled in from massive odds, gets on tomorrow). A slight concern is that all his winning form has been later in the year which may be worth noting if he blows out on saturday. think at 25's its worth a tickle.

There are of course loads with chances and a lot depends on the ground which is currently good from g/f but could soften between now and then.

Bertiwhittle, Buckstay, Highland Acclaim and American Hope are but a few in a wide open race.

Shared Equity (26) and Ninjago (11) for me. Backed them yesterday before the draw, so happy with former but not sure the later has a good draw but Sean Levey has ridden 3 winners in the last few days.

Zarwaan @ 16/1 for me.

Backed him in the Lincoln where he ran well until fading late on and a drop to a stiff 7f with easier going looks tailor made.
Good to see the stable have the big h'cap winner at Chester yesterday too.

Fela - interesting that Hughsie is going to ride RR.

Tudhope to ride So Beloved.

Stable jockey on So Beloved and it ran well first time out so might be worth a saver.

Chill The Kite 25/1 for me decent record at Ascot, stable good form,wont mind ground.

Both American Hope and Lincoln starting to shorten this morning. American Hope definitely handicapped to win, just a little concerned about his tendency to hang last couple of runs and whether he really needs it faster than this - hoping the Hunt Cup is is real target.

Lincoln was value at 33-1. Still wondering why he didnt go to Chester for todays 7f event, in which Channon relies on a very well handicapped Arnold Lane. A tip in itself?

Yeah saw the 33s with Lincoln and Bronze Angel ... was a bit surprised...

I have added Heavens Guest @16/1 he has a good record at Ascot... prefer a bit of rain but he beat Balty Boys who went on to win a good race...

Claimer on board... disappointed last season but just come from a confidence boosting win... so worth a bet.

Heavens Guest is my clear pick for this.

I don't like the jockey though. He is weak and indecisive.

Victoria Cup trends for the past 10 runnings: - See more at: http://racecaller.com/horse-racing-forum/upcoming-big-races/victoria-cup-trends-2015-1430940252#sthash.2sTSkS1f.dpuf

I have weighted these stats as more important.
Horses aged 4 or 5: 8-19-168
7 of last 8 winners carried 8-5 to 8-13
Horses rated 90 to 97: 7-18-135
8 of 10 winners have been officially rated between 88 and 96.
8 of 10 winners had run in past 40 days
Racing Tactics (ignoring 2005 race at Lingfield)
7 of 9 winners were held up in midfield or in rear. Only 2 winners of the race at Ascot since 2003 raced prominently throughout.
Draw (ignoring 2005 race at Lingfield)
Horses drawn 1 to 9: 4-11-81
Horses drawn 10 to 19: 3-10-90
Horses drawn 21 or higher: 2-6-58
No very strong trends on the draw.

I have just added Speculative Bid(been waiting for 15+ on Betfair)to my other arrows Shared Equity and Ninjago
David Elsworth has booked Jamie Spencer- rides the straight mile really well.
Trainer form in April 4-17 24%     3-7 4yo+

gamerawins - Im a massive Heavens Guest fan but always get him wrong so as I dont plan on backing him tomorrow he will probably go and win. Garrity will no doubt ride out his claim to boot!

madhu - half the field is rated in the 100's. I backed Gabrials Lad last year but wouldnt have done if Id followed "trends". Form, form , form.

Looking at the race there isnt a great deal of pace drawn low so unless one of Fitry Hays horses goes off as hare (drawn 1 & 2) then id say middle to high will be favoured.
Ive backed Buckstay (low) and Lincoln (high) but think Highland Acclaim is overpriced at 25-1 Hills and wouldnt rule out a return to form for Bertiwhittle at 33-1.

Good luck everyone, including Heavens Guest

Outback Traveller is my selection.

betilyerded quite right but still, only 3 winners have carried more than 9 stone in the last 20 years/18 running's. Coincidentally,I also backed Gabriel's Lad last year. I only included the statistics for others who may find them of interest. Kind regards.

Haggis yard warming up nicely today for the big one tomorrow.

Yes platini been waiting for him to run,form has been enhanced from last season as well.

I've taken the 16. Think he could attract quite a bit of money in the morning.

I'm on two 33/1 shots Bertiewhittle and Baraweez, good luck

So Beloved is the other one I like.

I like Dream Spirit and Big Bazz, prefer the first named but lacks a run?, nice profile mind.

Pretty sure Dream Spirit will have been primed for this,hope so 14/1 ew, alos backed Chill The Kite 25/1 if no rain can outun his price. Stable of Morrison in flying form.

Haggas is the man for these big handicaps. High draw might be a bonus as well.

Hawkeyethenoo 40-1 e.w. 1st 5.
   9-y-o but dropped in weights. Crouch takes another 7lb off and he's down to 8st 1lb. Hawkeyethenoo ran okay at Haydock last time and will love the firm ground.

Agree souldance. 40s is very fair hawkeye. Lots in his favour today

Zarwaan for me too.

Speculative and Lincoln for me.

Emell saver.

GL

Suzi's Connoisseur and Redver's each way and reverse forecast , both have a bit to prove but look great value at the prices

Another weak finish from Zawaan. Well done Benjy, Lincoln & Hawkeye backers.

That wasn't a weak finish by Zarwaan, considering the headwind and the fact he probably got going too early. He hit the front 2 furlongs out along with 7 or 8 others and he beat all them quite convincingly. Those who beat him were all well shielded from the headwind and came late, most of them from right out the back.

Benjy

Well done !

Not one horse in the first 4 carried over 8-12.

The first 2 were aged 4 and two 5yo’s were 4th and 5th.

The first four home were rated between 93 and 97.

All of the first four home had run in the last 40 days.

The winner was held up.

Speculative Bid BOOM. ‘trends’, form, form, form betilyerded……..

Knowledge+Form+Trends+discussion=Profit

Luvnunity

Well done Benjy. Thought i did well to get 2nd & 4th but to bag first 2 spots takes some doing.

Did I hear Spencers missus tipping this one on the Morning Line? Frank must have been talking in his sleep!

Nice one

Oh, and OP too. Hope you backed it e/w!

Well done Benjy - Speculative Bid definitely one for the trend boys.

Cheers

Emell bit unlucky in the run. Tricast would have been nice

I just never consider horses whose recent form is on the all weather, whether here or in Dubia. As well as the surface change those tight a/w tracks are nothing like a straight track. I'd never have backed the winner even if he'd been available at 50/1 - his only decent turf run was on heavy, and he'd been well beat in 3 runs on Newmarkets straight track.

Zarwaan is one to give up on I think - he's becoming my new Loving Spirit.

There was one I took out of the race for the Hunt Cup so hopefully it wasnt  atotally wasted exercise.

Ascot is the only (turf) course where I consider a/w form to be honest. Not sure what it is but I'm fairly sure the stats would back up all weather form being replicated at Ascot

One statistic I inadvertently missed out below was that winners have won this coming from the AW- Dandy Boy, 2010[b]Wise Dennis[/b] 2007, and Iffraaj 2005 when it was run at Lingfield. Trends were spot on.

Madhu - thats a cracker.

Earlier this thread you dismissed the 2005 running for your analysis because it was run at Lingfield and then you include it above to justify mentioning the a/w angle (surely nothing to do with Iffraaj racing prominently that day?)

So heres my a/w stat - 17 of the last 20 winners didnt prep on the a/w.

And whilst we are at it, wheres this equation taken from - Knowledge+Form+Trends+discussion=Profit? New one on me but lets take the "form" element.

Speculative Bid had no turf form to speak of. He won his last 2 on the a/w this year, recently winning a 9 runner handicap where less than 5 lengths covered the field. Receiving nearly a stone from (the admittedly useful) Outback Traveller. 3rd horse hadnt won in 10 races and the 4 to have subsequently run from the race had all been stuffed. This horse has clearly improved and I would imagine the support came from those who new what he was still capable of but the general betting public wouldnt have known that.

Well done for backing him but I think its stretching things to say he was the selection on any sort of relevant form.

Anyway,I think we will have to agree to disagree and see how the season goes.Ive got a form book to read

betilyerded 2005 was on the Lingfield turf course. My mistake in my rushed analysis.

Form wise, all I would say is kindly look at the replays of Speculative Bid's AW races. Much better than reading the form book.

Trends wise, I'll only repeat-
Not one horse in the first 4 carried over 8-12,the first 2 were aged 4 and two 5yo’s were 4th and 5th,the first four home were rated between 93 and 97, all of the first four home had run in the last 40 days, and the winner was held up. Trends were spot on.

It would appear that you articulations are quite confrontational, therefore , regarding the rest of the season wise- we'll see if Speculative Bid, Shared Equity or Ninjago (He was nothing to do with trends, I follow this horse and he is my 2015 Stewards Cup horse) outrun your selections-Lincoln, Bertiewhittle, Buckstay, Highland Acclaim, American Hope and Heavens Guest in W/P/R/£'s this coming season. My 3 against your 6.

Kind regards

betilyerded     09 May 15 19:50 
Well done Benjy. Thought i did well to get 2nd & 4th but to bag first 2 spots takes some doing.

Did I hear Spencers missus tipping this one on the Morning Line? Frank must have been talking in his sleep!

Nice one



.????? Have they got back together ???

Sorry Madhu. Didnt mean to be confrontational, it just seems that every racing newspaper, programme etc. cant seem to let a big race go by without having some sort of stats thrown at us and it gets me exasperated. I had this discussion on one of the Grand national threads and pointed out that I used to be a stats man myself till I realised that you end up putting yourself off winning selections because they dont "fit the stats". I used the Hennessy as a case in point. A lot of effort can go into compiling stats that, in my opinion, could be better spent studying form. each to their own I guess.

Btw, good luck with Ninjago. He will win a big handicap one day but will probably send you to the madhouse before he does.

Facts - didnt know they had split up else I would have been on the phone

Old-timer Hawkeyethenoo ran a cracker despite getting stopped in his tracks twice, that was always on the cards. Speculative Bid had a dream run I could have done with. Lincoln looked the unluckiest but the winner did it with a bit to spare.
  Remember one year the 1st and 2nd going on to win Hunt Cup and Wokingham,could it happen this year?

Yes. I did like the  way Speculative  Bid quickened

betilyerded

Just for you :-

All the gory details !! 


http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2658100/The-agonising-moment-I-faced...

Cheers Facts. I obviously dont read enough tabloid gossip - where have I been?

Hayley turner eh? And she looks like butter wouldnt melt in her mouth - or anything else for that matter...