Duke of York Stakes

Imperative for Muthmir to have Good or better ground. Wouldn't be backing him until ground is easier to predict. Horrible weather at the moment.

Hope he wins though, in my TTF lists!

Sintonian quite true but not so much of a problem now, around 16/1 is fair price. What do you think?-

Back     Your
Odds     Your
Stake     Your
Profit
Naadirr     13.06     £33.00     £398.00
Muthmir     12.89     £107.00     £1,272.50
      £140.00    
Lay     Backer's
Odds     Backer's
Stake     Payout Liability
Muthmir     10.5     £80.00     £760.00
      £80.00

Kin hell they are talking about temperatures of 25 degrees early next week. Why did I bother listening to your weather programme Mr Sintonian?

I don't think it matters given you had already bet!

It looks a very good race and hopefully Muthmir goes close to winning/wins.

Sintonian sorry I meant the thought of soft ground carrying on into next week would mean he would be unlikely to run given he did not go to Prix de l'Abbaye on account of the ground, which you rightly pointed out would be a factor. My disappointment is greening out too soon.

From racecourse website
Soft /Good to soft in places(beware actually states good /good to soft in places)

Rainfall of 16mm on Friday night.

Weather Forecast

Saturday morning at 7am - cloudy, breezy and dry.

Met office forecast:

Saturday - cloud fragmenting to give way to bright and breezy day with the chance of a passing shower.

Sunday, Monday and Tuesday: dry, bright and warmer - up to 19 degrees.

Wednesday - dry and 14 degrees.

The trials and tribulations of ante-post!

Thank you geoff m. It looks like it will be good or faster by Wednesday. Turftrax has good to soft all round.

I’ve got out of Naadirr and Muthmir just now and changed my position completely having looked at the trends; they are up against it in this race. They may be group class in the future but not here. Got these from a PDF online from before the 2013 race, so have updated them quickly and I hope accurately. I am sure some wise owl would critique anyway.

Trends for the Duke of York Stakes.

Class
15 of the last 16 winners had run in a Group 1 race

Previous runs
12 of the last 16 winners had run already that season
All of the last 16 winners had raced at least 12 times in their career

Age W/P/R
3yo (1/2/12) 4yo (3/7/64) 5yo (7/9/54) 6yo (2/6/30) 7yo (1/2/20) 8yo (0/0/10) 9yo+ (0/2/6)

The last winner to have raced in a handicap last time out was Venture Capitalist in 1996.

I think Music Master can turn around form with Astaire  based on the Diamond Jubilee Stakes last year. Muthmir to the eye is all potential. Perhaps we can dream he won the Prix de l'Abbaye de Longchamp last year and all this is bow ol locks? Who knows? With Mattmu, Lightning Moon and Justice Day, Astaire will not get an easy lead and they will set it up for Music Master. Henry Candy thought his sprinters would need the race and I think Limato must be top class winning first time out. Music Master had previously won first time out the last 2 years. I have also taken the 17.12 on Music Master for the Diamond Jubilee at Royal Ascot. I cannot see what he would have to beat after this. I am not a G Force or Due Diligence fan and Brazen Beau is a 3yo Southern Hemisphere horse; he got weight all round in the Black Caviar and Newmarket Handicap (rec 7lb and 10lb from 2nd and 3rd). In 6 months’ time he may carry that lot, but here 3 months later and equal weights. No chance. Mind you he is probably going for the Kings Stand anyway. Good luck.

I would guess Muthmir might be prepping in this race for Royal Ascot. That's not to say he can't win ofcourse, but RA would be the main aim.

Kings Stand as well

I was disappointed Music Master could not win the G3 last time out. He was well backed that day, 5/2 into 15/8, but in hindsight I think he may have needed the run, was being aimed at York like you have suggested Madhu. For that reason I have taken some 7/1 eachway at Lads & Billies. Interestingly lads are bottom price of 5/1 on Muthmir & tops on MM. Anyhow...Candy gives an update in tomorrow's RP about MM.

Muthmir, make no mistake is going to be Group 1 class and he'll show his potential here but the King Stand man, is his aim. Haggas's Topper is always in the winners circle at Ascot.Sir/ His Holiness Lester is 80 years old this November. He loves a bet there. As I've already said Brazen Beau has no chance. I think 12/1 about Muthmir in the Kings Stand will look huge next Wednesday evening.

Naadir would be my pick.

Trends may lead towards the older horses but they're a very average bunch this year. Would be disappointed if this isn't won by one of the 4 year olds (or the 3yo or Muthmir - as still very unexposed).

More money for Muthmir today.

If anyone has today's RP can they post Henry Candy's quotes re MM.

..anyone have them?

One of us might have to walk around the bookies mate?

Thought about it but I did an 11 mile run this morning so i'm staying put!

Sint no mention re MM in post,backed him fto bit disappointing given his record fresh.

Sintonian, just to confer with stevo1, nothing about Music Master, all about Limato. I expect they are leaving  anything he said about the former for when the final declarations are made tomorrow. Still, picked up some cheap reduced food from the Co-Op for a stir-fry and 4 cans Guinness!

So the trainer does a stable tour in the paper today and they don't mention his second best horse? Ominous for ante-post backers, maybe he is not going to run?

He will run sintonian.

RP- David Redvers on consideration of Elm Park for Thursdays Dante-

‘The fact there has been some rain just means we know he will handle the ground perfectly and it helps him.

Sat 13 Sep 2014 Doncaster Going: Good (Good to soft in places on Round course; Good to firm in places on Straight course; 7.6). Muthmir’s time in the Portland Handicap1m 5.38s (fast by 0.82s). If it is Good to soft that might blunt his turn of foot, he may not even run and wait for the 5f Temple Stakes at Haydock on the 23rd May. I’m sure I caught browsing Mark Howards book in WHSmiths that the main aim is the Kings Stand?

I think they said they would not be afraid to run him in it, i.e has the speed for 5f, but could be wrong.

Anyone got a copy of Mark Howard's book?

Wasn't stable tour Sint in post,was interview in supplement.

LIGHTNING MOON at 10s was injured last year but was very progressive and has a 100% record... was entered in some decent races last season before his injury.

If he is back to his best - this will the horse to beat.

Music Master is a N/R, sorry backers.

Kinda thought last night that he'd be a NR given he was not mentioned in the RP.

My position is crap now- half of stakes back if Naadirr wins and bit of profit if Muthmir steps up. Your point on Lads stood up sintonian.

5/1 co-favourites of 4 at the moment. Times of the first two races will be interesting to see how Good the going is...would love it if Muthmir won for TTF purposes.

Paul Hanagan is confident in the Sporting Live view from connections and the ground looks like quickening up sufficiently.Kin regretful that I got out because of crystal balling the weather.

Handicap winner of the same meeting has a great chance. Aetna.

He's not won yet Madhu, then it might be regretful, but even then..

His quotes are no more confident than anyone else's imo

I've not seen the race, amazed there is no comment on here! A paper between the first five, Muthmir the one to take from race? Should be winning at Group level this season?

Been studying, not form, academically.    

Trends for the Duke of York Stakes. Class- 15 of the last 16 winners had run in a Group 1 race, Previous runs- 12 of the last 16 winners had run already that season, All of the last 16 winners had raced at least 12 times in their career, Age W/P/R- 3yo (1/2/12) 4yo (3/7/64) 5yo (7/9/54) 6yo (2/6/30) 7yo (1/2/20) 8yo (0/0/10) 9yo+ (0/2/6) and the last winner to have raced in a handicap last time out was Venture Capitalist in 1996. Were more or less spot on.

Glass Office does not fit Group 1 race trend, but he fit the number of starts trend even considering a year out from injury but he was only 1 1/2l behind in the Group 2 KG at Goodwood so who knows whether he would of run in a G1 as 4yo. But that is pure conjecture. The trends were spot on with number of older horses in the first 5 who matched up and certainly were right in both Naadirr and Muthmir’s chances.

I think Mattmu with a penalty must rank on a par with Astaire’s run last year but he found it hard in G1’s after that. I can’t see Mattmu turning around form with Limato on this though and even 16/1 would not interest me E/W in The Commonwealth Cup.

As for Muthmir’s running he blew off in the front and the ground was not firm but he was still there at the finish. I can’t make my mind up about his run, perhaps a prep to see if he can front run in the Kings Stand?

Henry Candy has revealed MM scoped badly after HQ.

Thanks for info sintonian- you got that before RP and SpL. On the case.

Muthmir runs tomorrow in France tomorrow.

Haggas has had 5 winners in his last 10 runners, or 7 in his last 16. Had a bet on Muthmir at 3/1 today.

Some rain forecast.

Sweet.

I think that was a very good performance. Never got a clear run and nearly shuffled back but quickened through and won in a photo. Ears pricked at the finish. Going was offically changed to soft after the race too when he prefers quicker.

Well done sint, unfortunately lost me shirt on MM in that listed race on Saturday. What with Tryster blowing out and Postponed not up to it over 10f my ante-post crystal ball has nearly turned its up. Roll on Toormore in the QA and Speculative Bid in the RHC.