Horse Antepost
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Been having a gander at the race as its one that Ive done strangely well in over the past few years, although two of the winners i found were trained by Richard Fahey who doesnt appear to be bothering with the jumps any more, sadly.
In his absence, Nicky Henderson has a decent record in the race having won it in successive years with Eradicate and a second with Dancing Bay. He has a couple this year but I'll be surprised if he runs Sign Of A Victory off top weight when there will be some dig in the ground and Laudatory has been off for a while and doesnt look good enough.
Evan Williams has also won back to back runnings with Barizan and Ballyglasheen. He has somehow got the latter back on the same mark as last year so he cant entirely be discounted and given that Court Minstrel won an Aintree Handicap off 147 and was second in the Ayr Scottish National afterwards must also have a chance given he has been running with credit over fences this year and will enjoy the track (and ground if it doesnt get too soft). However, no horse has won this off a mark higher than 148 so has a tough task.
The same comment also applies to Cheltenian who was gutsy in winning the Scottish Champion Hurdle at Ayr (not a bad guide to this race and something I'll come back to in a moment) and is a lot like the stables In Contrast who also ran creditably in the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury and County Hurdle before winning the same Ayr race. He was 3rd in 2003 with top-weight off a mark of 150, which puts Cheltenians task into perspective as he is 3lbs higher on 153 so is another who is passed over.
Half of the horses over the past 16 years have been rated in the 130's but then the majority of the runners will have been in that bracket. Likewise, horses rated 125, 126 (twice), 128 and 129 have won which brings in a host of runners such as Gran Maestro, Purple N' Gold, San Benedeto and Remind Me Later but with none of these guranteed a run just now it may well be worth looking at something a little higher in the handicap.
Two horses that interest me are
Handiwork - Steve Gollings has clearly been trying to bag this prize for a while now, his four runners in the past 5 years finishing 5th, 8th, 6th, with Local Hero going closest in 2013 finishing 3rd.Interestingly, he was 5th at Ayr offf 146 before running here off 144. Anyone who saw this years Scottish Champion Hurdle will not have failed to see Handiwork running on really well close home, having been outpaced at the back turning for home. Although he went up 2lbs for that effort he still gets in off 139 and I would fancy his chances of reversing the form with the front two, particularly as he showed a liking for Haydock on his previous start, being nailed in a head bob with Purple N' Gold. He was unlucky that day, fluffing the last and possibly in front too long. Both Eradicate (2010) and Red Merlin (2012) won this race after placing 4th at Ayr and as all ground comes the same I can't believe that he wont take his chance on Saturday and am therefore happy to avail the 16-1 generally on offer.
Arzal - This one is more straightforward. He came from a mile back having being badly hampered in the Betfair at Newbury and put his disappointing run at Sandown behind with an easy victory at short odds at Chepstow the other week, interestingly without the tongue tie he had being wearing. As he had a quick wind op? Who knows but he's now 3lb lower than Newbury and as a lightly raced sort is a nice back up at 14-1. (The Sandown race was a funny one with Calipto and Wicklow Brave also running badly out the back and I think its fair to draw a line through that effort, regardless of the reasons for it).
Cheers and good luck all.
In his absence, Nicky Henderson has a decent record in the race having won it in successive years with Eradicate and a second with Dancing Bay. He has a couple this year but I'll be surprised if he runs Sign Of A Victory off top weight when there will be some dig in the ground and Laudatory has been off for a while and doesnt look good enough.
Evan Williams has also won back to back runnings with Barizan and Ballyglasheen. He has somehow got the latter back on the same mark as last year so he cant entirely be discounted and given that Court Minstrel won an Aintree Handicap off 147 and was second in the Ayr Scottish National afterwards must also have a chance given he has been running with credit over fences this year and will enjoy the track (and ground if it doesnt get too soft). However, no horse has won this off a mark higher than 148 so has a tough task.
The same comment also applies to Cheltenian who was gutsy in winning the Scottish Champion Hurdle at Ayr (not a bad guide to this race and something I'll come back to in a moment) and is a lot like the stables In Contrast who also ran creditably in the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury and County Hurdle before winning the same Ayr race. He was 3rd in 2003 with top-weight off a mark of 150, which puts Cheltenians task into perspective as he is 3lbs higher on 153 so is another who is passed over.
Half of the horses over the past 16 years have been rated in the 130's but then the majority of the runners will have been in that bracket. Likewise, horses rated 125, 126 (twice), 128 and 129 have won which brings in a host of runners such as Gran Maestro, Purple N' Gold, San Benedeto and Remind Me Later but with none of these guranteed a run just now it may well be worth looking at something a little higher in the handicap.
Two horses that interest me are
Handiwork - Steve Gollings has clearly been trying to bag this prize for a while now, his four runners in the past 5 years finishing 5th, 8th, 6th, with Local Hero going closest in 2013 finishing 3rd.Interestingly, he was 5th at Ayr offf 146 before running here off 144. Anyone who saw this years Scottish Champion Hurdle will not have failed to see Handiwork running on really well close home, having been outpaced at the back turning for home. Although he went up 2lbs for that effort he still gets in off 139 and I would fancy his chances of reversing the form with the front two, particularly as he showed a liking for Haydock on his previous start, being nailed in a head bob with Purple N' Gold. He was unlucky that day, fluffing the last and possibly in front too long. Both Eradicate (2010) and Red Merlin (2012) won this race after placing 4th at Ayr and as all ground comes the same I can't believe that he wont take his chance on Saturday and am therefore happy to avail the 16-1 generally on offer.
Arzal - This one is more straightforward. He came from a mile back having being badly hampered in the Betfair at Newbury and put his disappointing run at Sandown behind with an easy victory at short odds at Chepstow the other week, interestingly without the tongue tie he had being wearing. As he had a quick wind op? Who knows but he's now 3lb lower than Newbury and as a lightly raced sort is a nice back up at 14-1. (The Sandown race was a funny one with Calipto and Wicklow Brave also running badly out the back and I think its fair to draw a line through that effort, regardless of the reasons for it).
Cheers and good luck all.
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Superb post good luck to you.
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Thanks. Just read this on the RP race report for Arzal's last run.
Arzal - made every yard and won with his head in his chest. Returning to the track for the first time since pulling up in the Imperial Cup last month, he relished this significantly easier assignment and toyed with the opposition. Reported to have suffered a nasty gash on a leg at Sandown, he'll benefit from a boost in confidence and won't look out of place back in a higher grade. Explains the poor run at Sandown but still wondering why they have removed tongue-tie, unless it goes back on Saturday. |
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Good luck Betil, I'll take a chance on Ballyglasheen at the 25's.
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I see where youre coming from Fabulous, particularly if the visor replaces the cheekpeices on Saturday. No surprise if this has been the target since last year and bearing in mind he won it as a 4yo, the first since Mirjan in 2000, there may be more to come.
On the flip side, he did run an eyecatcher at Sandown prior to winning last year whereas his last two runs this year were pretty dire and the stable havent had a winner for a while either. |
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Having started my racing interests in the mid 70s this race is 1 of my favourites of the year. The inaugral running in 1978 under the title of the Royal Doulton was a race to behold with racings hurdling greats lining up to face each other in a hcap which unfortunately we will never see the likes of again.
The field comprised of horses to be 3 dual champion hurdlers Night Nurse/Monksfield and my beloved Sea Pigeon along with them and probably the best horse never to win a champion hurdle Birds Nest. You would have thought 1 of them would have managed the victory but all got beat by the Fred Rimell trained Royal Gaye Interesting stats courtesy of John Randall when ever of these dual champions are mentioned it raises the question of who was the best ever champion hurdler?? Of the 3 most opt for Night Nurse followed closely by Sea Pigeon however the stats as follow raise doubts: This was the golden age of hurdling, and dual champions Night Nurse and Monksfield rank even higher in the equine pantheon than Sea Pigeon and Birds Nest. Those four cavaliers met repeatedly between 1975 and 1981, and the match scores between them were as follows. Sea Pigeon 9 Birds Nest 5 Night Nurse 6 Birds Nest 3 Night Nurse 4 Sea Pigeon 2 Monksfield 6 Birds Nest 0 Monksfield 5 Sea Pigeon 1 Monksfield 3 Night Nurse 1 Lies, lies and stats cry Sea Pigeon worshippers. Wouldnt it be great to see the likes of Faugheen Hurricane Fly and Jetski line up in a hcap hurdle?? Having been spoilt from its introduction always try and find a long range "plot" horse without a gr8 deal of success I hasten to add. So FWIW 1 i have thought has been plotted up for a big hcap is Olofi tenderly handled thro the winter by Brennan and despite that ruined a cracking mark of 133 by running The New One too close @ Cheltenham. Back to 2 miles hopefully of 138 he should put up a decent show. |
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Wow. Didnt realise the race had such history Geoff. My interest in the sport didnt really start until around 1982 as a wayward schoolboy but i do remember a race being called the Royal Doulton and I guess given my Grandad was always telling us to "keep the bloody noise down" when the racing results came on the radio that I must have picked up a lot of the old names by osmosis (if thats possible!) as they all ring various bells.
Youre right, it would be great to see top class hurdlers in handicaps but unless the prize money was on a par with grade 1 hurdles then it wont happen. According to wikipedia the race was the 4th most lucrative prize behind the national, gold cup and champion hurdle, which is clearly why it attracted such class horses. As for Olofi, I wouldnt give him much of a squeek, although he will enjoy the easier ground. Only former winner Dreams End has won the race as a 9yo since its inception and he does appear to be regressing. The one who does scare me is Gran Maestro for Dr Newland. Had been put away for the winter after a wind op and is clearly ready to make hay off his low rating. He is apparently being aimed at the Summer Hurdle at Market Rasen but looks very capable of this mark and was backed yesterday (possibly tipped up by Paul Kealy in the weekender as he is a big Newland fan) Good luck anyway and thanks for sharing your thoughts. Not sure if they declare today or tomorrow for the race? |
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Sustained support for Arzal so far today, probably due to the softening conditions. Hopefully Cheltenian will run under topweight, doubt Sign Of A Victory will though.
Newlands horse keeps getting nibbled at too. |
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Totally get what you're saying about Trainer form betil, and it's the biggest negative for me. I'll stick with him though, and left with the 16's. Took some of the 25's earlier in the week, but unfortunately it's in a mug 15 with 2 losers
 . I'll probably chuck in his other runner, and Royal Guardsman as well, and I've doubled up Bally with Emell in The Victoria Cup.Good luck with yours. |
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Oh look - the visors back on Ballyglasheen.
Well, didnt see that coming  Couldnt give Court Minstrel any chance on the ground and Moloney has chosen the other one as well. Happy with the price now on Arzal but surprised about the jockey booking for Handiwork, not that it should be detrimental to his chances. |
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Two against the field for me are Ballyglasheen and Lexi's Boy. Ballyglasheen has been well written up and Lexi's Boy ran a lot better than it's final placing at Aintree last time out. At 25/1 with some firms is well worth a dabble.
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All in with Arzal !! to hopefully give a good ending to what has been a very poor N.H.season for me. G l. to all.
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Good post in terms of ante post play...
For me its Ballyglasheen 18/1 @ laddies |
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Going to join the Ballglasheen love in.
Cheltenian sure to run well again too. Should be fav for me. Might add him e/w. |
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Eeeek. What a shocker. Time to consign NH betting to the bin and concentrate on the flat. Well done to anyone who got that one. I certainly didnt!
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I wouldn't be too hard on yourself - it was just one of those races ... winner didn't have too many miles on the clock and got backed into fav was 10s in the morning...
The write up was excellent. |
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Thanks Iris and i suppose youre right. Arzal obviously got into a war of attrition with Rayvin Black and they both ended up legless as a result. Its been said on more than one occasion that Handiwork is ready for a step up in trip and yesterday only confirmed that, as he simply couldnt lie up with the pace and just plodded on one pace when it was all over. He came up the hill at cheltenham well in last years Fred Winter so maybe the Coral Cup could be on the agenda, though Gollings isnt noted for targeting the festival. Places like Market Rasen are more his level of operation!
Evan Williams has shown with his exploits in the national that he does target certain races and this appears to be another. Ballyglasheen had no chance on his last two runs but put that all behind him yesterday with the headgear swop. Cheers anyway. |