Horse Antepost
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25 Apr 15
21:35
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04 Oct 09
Whats the consensus here guys? Do we think this jolly is right price, too short a price, or will it just shorten and shorten the closer we get to the race?
I have just had a first look at it and i know some of you look at this from the moment horses are born pretty much that might run in these sorts of races in like 3 years time. Each to their own but i am just trying to get a handle on the market.
I have just had a first look at it and i know some of you look at this from the moment horses are born pretty much that might run in these sorts of races in like 3 years time. Each to their own but i am just trying to get a handle on the market.
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Raed the Guineas thread then STS.
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Some of us who have been watching/tracking the market since it first opened are still trying to get our heads around it STS.
It all depends on what the line ups going to be whether Gleneagles is considered too short or not @ this stage and things will become alot more clearer after the confirmation of entry 5day stage tommorrow. If Territories/Intilaaq and Zawraq where supplemented and AP Obs other 2 run then @ current price you would want to be a layer and I have been around the 3.75 mark for a while . If none of them are supplemented and he only runs Gleneagles then hes going to be into 7/4/2/1 here. As his form in the book suggets there is very little between him and Territories and lines thro War Front and Aktabantay say hes inferior to Estidhkaar who ive been banging on about all winter.His other form int the book beating the likes of Tombelaine /Dutch Connection/Toscannini/ Vert De Greece doesnt make him a clear fav for the guinneas in my book Trained by anyone other than AP Obrien then he would be a 6/1 shot plus |
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Thanks geoff m, the kind of post i was hoping for. Very informative as not just your opinion.
Being a fan of horse racing in all codes but with a massive preference for national hunt i always do it to myself, get to Sandowns bet365 meeting and then say to myself, hang on, its the guineas next week and i am left lost lol. I have read both the guineas threads but this time around felt the need to post this thread because i treat the flat differently to NH in that i don't trust the form at all! I use the markets and have a couple written down to back for my first couple bets of the flat season but wanted to know whether gleneagles is likely to shorten or not before playing as that would effect the prices of the rest of the field |
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And don't get me started on breeding, jeez, so one horse shags another and makes a baby horse and then it gets trained to race at 2 so what lol. Its about as much as i know about that and want to know about that lol. Whether one horses form dips cos his dad never went on that ground etc might be important to some its way over my head!
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Currently there are 35 horses in the Betfair market including the to be supplemented Territories and the market is currently at around 107%.
Apart from Cockney Rebel`s Guineas normally less than 20 runners turn up which if this pattern is mirrored 15 or more have to come out and the 7% overround will disappear and the prices will contract on all the horses I would suggest. How much Gleneagles will contract if at all is debateable but I would be surprised if it dipped below 2/1 on here. There are those on here who think this pretty skinny and I don`t disagree but the market is the market. Overall I would wait for the declaration stage on Thursday and take note of the weather forcast.Based on the local forecast I doubt good/firm will pevail. Then make your selection. Last of all,good luck. |
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Gleneagles' mum didn't train on. Not sure why people think Gleneagles will.
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Still 28 left in with a few more to come out on Thursday I would think. Favourites price unchanged but a few around him reduced in price.
Still looks like a big field 20+ maybe which bucks recent trends but perhaps connections see the race as wide open and are prepared to take their chance. I read somewhere that the track was to be narrowed to prevent splitting into two or more groups but with the possible 20+ runners it still looks highly likely. Glad I`m not heavily involved. |
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Sacred Kingdom - Didn't the dam have an injury at the start of her three year old career?. Her delayed first run at 3 was actually quite a good one - 4th in an all age Group 1, beaten just over a length.
In any event, Gleneagles is a boy  and his full sister trained on (Won the Irish 1000 Gns) and Galileo's seem to progress with age. I have seen far more likely candidates for not training on . Whether he will be good enough is another matter. |
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Gleneagles drifted out to over 3/1 on here countered by the contraction of, almost exclusively, Old Man River. The market is still around 108% which says to me that more withdrawals are expected and if not prices will drift out I would suggest.
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Hughes: Ivawood can turn tables on Estidhkaar
http://www.racingpost.com/news/horse-racing/richard-hughes-hughes-ivawood-can-turn-tables-on-estidhkaar/1864981/#newsArchiveTabs=last7DaysNews Encouraging for me that Hughes still has belief in the horse, although I would've preferred to have heard him say Ivawood worked spectacularly than "blew the house down". Hopefully it is just a case of fitness rather than him becoming slow. |
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Oops wrong thread.
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More support for Old Man River in the Guineas and Derby market.
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I have as many as eight of the declared runners rated higher than Gleneagles. I know a horse can only beat the opposition it's faced with but for me Gleneagles was extremely lucky to be running in such weak Group races last year. Looking at his form from all aspects, the runners he beat, the manner he beat them, the way some of the races were run and the times he clocked, my conclusion is this is a pretty slow horse in Gp1 terms. I suppose an argument could be made that he just does enough, which is a possibility, but it's a slim one to be clinging to when taking such a short price. Whatever the outcome on Saturday, I know that in the long run the layers will come out ahead of the backers with this kind of horse at this kind of price. I've laid him to win and even though it may be a bit risky to place lay a runner in what could be a weak field I'll be laying him in the place market too.
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I should add, though, that a couple of the runners I have ahead of him are doubtful stayers.
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