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Can't Catch Me
28 Mar 15 07:50
Date Joined: 02 Apr 03
| Topic/replies: 28,246 | Blogger: Can't Catch Me's blog
Morning all. I have a friend who works at Godolphin and have been told this young lady is scorching the gallops and connections are very excited about her. The Oaks is the ultimate plan and still some 20-1 available.

Good luck.
Pause Switch to Standard View Beautiful Romance - Oaks
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Report gouger March 28, 2015 8:27 AM GMT
I was at Donny when she made her debut and she looked a picture in parade ring
Report sintonian March 28, 2015 8:29 AM GMT
good luck CCM
Report sintonian March 29, 2015 10:07 AM BST
Looks stacked full of promise but as always with Godolphin they seem to get their best ones injured. Anyone know if Be Ready is in-training this season.
Report Shrews March 29, 2015 7:02 PM BST
If she's going to win she's going to have to overcome a total Dosage score that's lower than anything for the last 25 years (and maybe beyond - not checked)

She has a profile of 1-1-7-3-0 (0.85)(0.00)ICS=11  Total =12

Average of the last 10: 5-3-15-4-2  (1.50)(0.20) ICS=22  Total=29

Average of the last 25: 5-3-16-4-2 (1.31)(0.13)ICS=23  Total=30

So as you can see, the average is pretty consistent and she doesn't really have an ideal Oaks Dosage profile. That said, she is in the boundaries of minimum scores

Brilliant - 3 fillies from the last 25 have scored as low as 1
Intermediate - 7 fillies from the last 25 have scored 1 or lower
Classic - 4 fillies from the last 25 have scored 7 or lower
Solid - 12 fillies from the last 25 have scored 3 or lower
Professional - 10 fillies from the last 25 have scored 0

However, she would be deleted from my choices on her total Dosage Index of 12.  No filly has scored that low in 25 years and only 5 have scored less than 20. That said, Snow Fairy in 2010 broke that statistic to reach a low of 14.

But not for me.
Report Can't Catch Me March 29, 2015 8:00 PM BST
Interesting stuff Shrews. Something I know absolutely nothing about, but you make a strong case.
Report Can't Catch Me April 15, 2015 5:13 PM BST
Nice Oaks trial imo... reckon that was a hot little race and she stayed on well.
Report cryoftruth April 15, 2015 8:00 PM BST
Whatever the dosage index is, if it's about stamina I suggest you find a new formula.

This filly is by a Derby winner out of a mare who won at a mile and a half and stayed a mile and three quarters.

She is certain to stay the Oaks trip and also certain to improve massively when she gets 12 furlongs.

She is a great price for the Oaks, as she is blessed with all that stamina and enough speed to finish well over 7 furlongs. She is a very interesting prospect indeed.
Report lobster luck April 15, 2015 8:17 PM BST
I was there today. She is a big strong filly and really took the eye in the paddock. Very relaxed but there will be considerable improvement imo as she was carrying plenty of condition.  I was on for the Oaks before the race and like Cryoftruth I think she will get 1 1/2 miles and 14/1 is a very good price.  Reminds me a bit of Sariska who I believe trialled over 7 at newbury in her oaks year.
Report cryoftruth April 15, 2015 8:24 PM BST
Maybe she can win the Guineas then en route? She will improve for the extra furlong for sure, maybe enough to reverse, although Osaila is also likely to improve some.
Report cryoftruth April 15, 2015 8:25 PM BST
For the Oaks the big problem is Found, who on her last run is the real deal.

It's also very early days and much can happen by Oaks day.
Report sintonian April 15, 2015 8:30 PM BST
For as good as Found looks, she is a truly awful price.
Report lobster luck April 15, 2015 8:40 PM BST
She was not as fit as Osaila today but they are different types.  Not sure about the Guineas tbh but I was surprised than ran her in this today.  She could place for sure but if she was mine I think I would go for the pretty polly or musidora next.  Blue Bunting was stoutely bred and the pace of the guineas can put an emphasis on stamina.  I have just topped up at 14/1, couldn't resist!  Agree about Found although I have a doubt about the trip beyond 1 mile 2, I think the trainer has said that too.  Found will take some stopping in the guineas and could prove a class apart.
Report deepingfox April 15, 2015 9:49 PM BST
Beautiful Romance was a surprising runner in a 7F trial, after bolting up on soft ground over 8F on her debut. She must be showing plenty, and in the pre-parade today she was a standout looker, tall strong and relaxed.  There are few fillies each year that are this attractive and talented, her price for the Oaks will contract markedly in the coming weeks.
Report cryoftruth April 19, 2015 10:06 PM BST
I quite hope you are right deepingfox. I have backed with a view to laying some of it off.

I have done well in the past at backing 3yos for Epsom who are bred to stay well but show really strong form over inadequate trips.

The list of such horses is very considerable. Just from memory, Generous, Sea The Stars, Mill Reef, Nijinsky, Time Charter, Nashwan, New Approach, Australia, are just a few classic winners at Epsom who ran very well in races over much shorter trips, a bit of research would indicate a load of others. It's no shock as to win at Epsom generally you need the speed as well as the stamina.

Beautiful Romance really has done very well to run so well over 7 furlongs. She has an obvious chance in the Oaks, and is a still a fair price too.
Report Can't Catch Me April 27, 2015 1:13 PM BST
BEAUTIFUL ROMANCE, who was as short as 12-1 for Sunday's Qipco 1,000 Guineas, will miss the race after meeting with a slight setback.

The daughter of New Approach won her sole start as a juvenile and finished third, beaten a length and a half, on her recent reappearance in the Nell Gwyn Stakes.

Trainer Saeed bin Suroor said: "It is nothing major, but it has held her up enough to rule her out of racing this weekend.

"But I am hopeful that she will be back on target for the Oaks and other big races this summer."
Report Figgis April 27, 2015 1:35 PM BST
In recent years it seems more horses from Godolphin miss their targets through injury than any other yard I can think of, more than bad luck I'd say.
Report sintonian April 27, 2015 1:38 PM BST
Yep,  so hard to back theirs ante post
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