SAPHIR DE RHEU - Hurdle or Chases

Cant believe they put him in a chase? Heres hoping for a clear round of jumping...

Might have a lovely weight for the Hennessey next season.

Yeah... I think horse is in crossroads though ... I think it depends on how he does tomorrow... dont think theyll go chasing with him next season if he loses... and take the hurdle route instead...

PFN as stubborn as they come though. He believes the better ground will help him, but these fences take no prisoners.

These are stiff fences. Probably the stiffest in the country so it will be a good test for him today.

I'm looking forward to seeing him chase again as I thought he looked really good when he won at Exeter earlier in the season.

Strange to think that he has been sent off favourite twice against Coneygree. Can he just pop around unscathed?  At 7/4 he is a proper gamblers bet.

He's been sent off favourite but we don't know how he would have done Angel. We can suspect given how well Coneygree won the gold cup and had he been kicked off the track he wouldn't be this price. He may well win but right now it's a case of 2+2 =35 with people taking how good he has proven over hurdles and assuming he is a 160+ horse over fences when we have no evidence for such an assumption as yet.

Great stuff

EO

Did you look at the ratings before this race? Regardless of how he would have done against Coneygree he was 7/4 because he was rated 10lb superior to everything else.

He may well win but right now it's a case of 2+2 =35 with people taking how good he has proven over hurdles and assuming he is a 160+ horse over fences when we have no evidence for such an assumption as yet. WTF

His chase rating was 163 EO. That was given for his Exeter race over FENCES.

must be an error.

and I thought he would be a better hurdler...!

Look forward to this horse next year!

Nicholls doing relly well though... next stop Zarkander

Very nice performance. Another contender announces himself for next season.

Sorry Angel but I don't see how you could give him a chase rating of 163 after Exeter. That rating was based on what he'd done over hurdles. Had that not been in the equation he'd have been given a mark around 150 or just over.

It was the rating shown on the SL site, i think it is his hurdle rating (cole harden 166)

The OH has to judge the ease of the victory EO. Not just the distance of victory.
If he had given Saphir Du Rheu a rating of 150 or just over, then he would be suggesting the horse only had a couple of lengths up his sleeve. He beat a 137 rated horses by 11L easily.

The question you need to ask yourself is could  Saphir Du Rheu have beaten Horizontal Speed giving it two stone? The OH believed so.
Would Saphir Du Rheu have beaten Horizontal Speed giving it one stone(your rating) well what price would he be on your ratings?

Easily can = another stone.

163 was his chase mark as well Sonko. It is/was the same as his hurdles mark. Coincidence? When you beat a 137 horse by 11L easily then what is the OH supposed to do when you are aware of the horses engine?

He must be up to 170 after todays performance.

Angel Gabrial 10 Apr 15 00:08 Joined: 09 May 05 | Topic/replies: 20,397 | Blogger: Angel Gabrial's blog
PFN as stubborn as they come though. He believes the better ground will help him, but these fences take no prisoners.


Not bringing SDR into this comment but it couldnt be more wrong. PFN Eventually works his horses out. NTD is a trainer who is stubborn.

Agree Sint, dont know what NTD is doing with his horses... theyre getting worse...

I like the trainer... but horses aint showing the same form as last year... Pipe is very close behind

Sint

I was not referring to PFN in the pig headed sense of stubbornness but in the single minded/determination sense as he always had this horse down as a better chaser than hurdler. I was in favour of him running the horse over fences as opposed to the view of Iris.

Yes he does work his horses out but he won`t be wavered if he sees what others don`t. Big Bucks apart he will be remembered for his chasers, this is where he likes to be measured with his chasers. Quitting on novice chasers of high potential would be the last resort.

The official handicapper can do as he pleases Angel. That wasn't a 163 performance in my opinion but today's was in excess of that.

You say it wasn`t a 163 performance due to your own assessment of what was in reserve EO.
He is now a 170 horse but you think the performance at Exeter was that of 150 because he didn`t extend but won easily.How much was that ease worth? let the experts have their say 3lb or 13lb?. If the OH had given him only 3lb for the ease of victory his judgement would have been brought into question.
I think it`s safe to say the OH judged it right on this occasion.

How much weight would have stopped SDR beating Horizontal Speed at Exeter? To the eye it looked like about 2 stone do you not think?

My point is that I think it's very difficult to seek to give novices a handicap mark after just one run Angel. Far too many variables for any degree of accuracy in my view. Sometimes the handicapper will be right and sometimes he'll be wrong. It seems he was right to be impressed. I'm not sure what else I can say. I thought he was a poor price pre race but he won like a very good horse and more importantly for the future I thought he generally jumped well.

The only variable is whether Horizontal Speed ran his race EO. if it is deemed so, then giving the winner an OR is not that difficult.

If Mo Farah decided to run in the Steeplechase and beat a 137 runner by 11L without extending himself what would his mark be(if equated the same as horse racing handicapping)?

Would you judge him on the 11L and only 3 more(for the ease) or would you sensibly feel as though he could have doubled the margin if he had extended himself? We know Mo Farahs` engine capability after all from his previous non steeplechase races.
Similarly when SDR won on his novice chase debut the OH was aware of his engine capability to determine what was left in the tank.

I think it is unfair to assume that a top class hurdler can already equal its rating over fences in 2 runs.

I remember a similar thing happening to Aiteen33, won a 5 runner and 4 runner race beating nothing and was rated 159 after those, basically ended the horse's career.

No wonder trainers fiddle.

Unfair on who though Sonko. I doubt PFN thought it was unfair.

There needs to be a sensible approach here and an assessment made on the ease of victory as well.

Take Smad Place he was a 158 rated hurdler, wins his novice chase by 7L and gets a chase mark of 148. The OH is more thoughtful than he gets credit for.

I think you're retrofitting here Angel. Had Saphir been beaten off you wouldn't be on here singing like a canary. On this occasion the handicapper has been proven right. Fair enough. I thought he had insufficient evidence to form a view. You disagree. Again fair enough.

I thought he had insufficient evidence to form a view.

You watch a race, pick a reference point and form a view. It`s not that difficult EO if you watch enough racing.

Really? You must let the official handicapper know then. If all it takes to handicap horses is to pick a reference point then they can do it straight away and certainly don't need to be generally concerning themselves with waiting until a horse has run three times in order to give it a mark.

EO no idea why you are over complicating this.

You suggested that the OH did not have enough evidence to form a view. Of course he did, this is however different from giving a 3 race OR( which will be different )

You seem to think that the OH should not form a view, yet strangely enough you have by offering a mark of 150 or thereabouts.

I think you're the one over complicating it and then coming over the top of that and misrepresenting what I've written Angel. The fact is that Saphir had an OFFICIAL RATING of 163 prior to Aintree. That is different from anyone forming a view on the merits of that one run at Exeter which the handicapper and anyone else is perfectly entitled to do. There is a reason why they give horses an official handicap mark after three runs which allows for the fact that one run isn't enough to base the rating on.

There is a reason why they give horses an official handicap mark after three runs which allows for the fact that one run isn't enough to base the rating on.

At the very start of the horses career though EO. The horse jumped well at Exeter this is important , so did he run to 163? the yardstick + the ease/known capability + could he have jumped any better = yes.

How many runs do novices usually have before the official handicapper usually gives them a mark?

It should be 3 completed Novice chases, if not then they will be judged by their hurdle rating. He should remain on 163

At last:

That rating was based on what he'd done over hurdles.

We always get there in the end.

Of course we do