Horse Antepost
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Amber Sky is over his issues and I'm not convinced Peniaphobia is best at 1000m though the 1000m is on turf, Lucky Nine doesn't mind travel and seems to be coming back to his best and likes the first.....Designs on Rome has to be a huge chance in the Sheema Classic over 2400m, just wish they had tried Able Friend over 1800m in Dubai instead of the soft option in HK.
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Hong Kong has got another strong team coming over and agree with you HK, it's a shame Able Friend isn't on the plane. I think he would have beat the bunch that are pencilled in the Dubai Turf (Duty Free), not much depth in the race this year IMO. Mshawish 5-1 says it all for me!!! Funnily enough Team Valor just tweeted the Magic Man will be riding Euro Charline in the Dubai Turf. She is a filly I like and is the EW bet for me... especially now!
The Al Quoz Sprint looks Hong Kong's for the taking, I haven't been impressed with any of the sprinters that have been running during the Carnival. I think Amber Sky might find it a bit harder this year to win from the front and hold them all off and I'm leaning towards backing Bundle of Joy mainly because I think the trip and track might suit him more than Peniaphobia. The draw could be a big factor so I will wait and see before placing a bet on the race. What are the vibes like coming form Hong Kong regarding these three HK? Always thought 12f could be the trip for Designs On Rome and the Sheema Classic will be a very interesting race. He's shown he stays 10f strongly and always does his best work towards the end of the race so a step up in trip seems the right call. He has had one go at 12f but that race was a mess which was run at a crawl so I can forgive him that plus he had a lot of racing before. My only doubt with DOR is he likes to race well off the pace which I'm not sure is a tactic you want at this Meydan track and it's a big worry for me, especially if there is no pace in the race. Flintshire ticks a lot of boxes and everything should be in his favour next Saturday, it will be a toss up between the two but at the moment Flintshire just edges it for me. I'm pretty peed off though that Epiphaneia isn't running in this race because I think it would have been bang on for him and I also think he would have had a better chance than Harp Star (same owner) over this 12f trip. They should have put her in the Dubai Turf instead! I think U Carrot Farm have got it all wrong this year going for World Cup with Epiphaneia instead of the Sheema Classic... money talks I suppose. I had an antepost bet on Tonalist for the Dubai World Cup but that went down the gurgler, surprised connections decided not to go for it. Not sure who to back now for the big one but I don't think it will be Epiphaneia, 10f and dirt surely a no, no! He will go and bolt up now.   |
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I like African Story...
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Looks a horrible race to me..
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Aye, WC looks the least interesting race on the card to me as well. Would be tempted with Prince Bishop if he showed any interest in the first mile of the race.
Sheema Classic looks very good. Hope Designs on Rome can do it and he's never looked like he's stopping over 10f so don't see trip being a problem, although (as said above) his one run over 12f was disappointing. Main Sequence is the one I'd be most worried about tbh. Should be a good race though and I just hope we don't get a shocker. Despite MrDinos knocking him, Mshawish is the one I'm most interested in the Duty Free. Looks a weak race to me and Mshawish has improved since going to the US for me and has some pretty solid course form. Think those in front of him in this last year would all fancy this renewal. Be shocked if he doesn't go very close. Bit disappointing your not keener on Peniaphobia tbh. Thought he beat Bundle of Joy quite cosily last time out (over 5f) despite the SH margin. What's the deal with Amber Sky's issues, HK? Gold Cup I'm expecting a big priced winner (again). May chance something like Star Empire who always looks like he may have a big run in him. Tamarkuz probably a good thing in the mile? |
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like to see california chrome win the dubai world cup, should have a good chance.
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Benjy, I wouldn't be surprised if any of the Hong Kong sprinters won and I think the draw could play a big part. Agree Peniaphobia won a shade cosy in his last race against BOJ but BOJ did beat him by 2 lengths giving 1Ib away last October over 5F. There ain't much in it and I think BOJ might be a bigger price on the day so will be better value for me! If Amber Sky rediscovers his form he will be bang there as well but I don't think I will chance it with him this year.
I followed Mshawish last year and backed him in various races and have also posted about him before. I came to the conclusion he is just a G2 horse and no better having thought he could be a top class horse on fast ground. He has been winning poor G2/G1 races in America IMO and I don't think he has improved so will not be backing him again... definitely not at single figure prices that's for sure. American trained horses have a wretched record in the turf races on World Cup night as well. |
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I correct myself, followed Mshawish during his 3yr old days so that was 2013 and 2 years ago but did back him last year at Sha Tin when Variety Club gave him a 10 length beating. That was the final straw for me.
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salutos amigos looks primed for a big run in the Golden Shaheen....2 very smart wins out in New York this year.
I suspect Main Sequence has been underestimated again...would've had him shorter for the Sheema....the one thing you can give Designs on Rome is that he's unexposed at 12f and it's not like they're going to be going a breakneck Arc type speed here. From the family of Grey Swallow who exploded on his first start @ 12f in the Irish Derby...smashed up north light that day. |
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Have just nipped out and had a fairly sizable bet on African Story with baldys at 8s 3 places. Although they are only 1/5th the odds i cannot see where 8 runners is coming from if the market on here is anything to go by although there is not a bookie on oddschecker yet only offering 1/4 1-2.
Last years good winner has had 2 runs so far on the surface this year surely to put him spot on for another crack, i know maybe missed the juicier prices but 8/1 still big imo and surely wont start anywhere near that big |
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Amber Sky bled again in his last race and was also lame after so can be excused his poor run, they think he's back to his best now and the fact he travels is a positive - unknown for BOJ and Peniaphobia. It's no secret that AS is one of my fav HK horses and the other 2, on times, are closely matched, I'm loathed to do it but I think I'm going to desert AS and go for Peniaphobia - with AS and BOJ in the race it may well be set up for Peniaphobia to do them both on the line, though the only downside for Peniaphobia is that it's 1000m and he's had quite a few runs this season already - at the top level too.
I do like the chances of Lucky Nine in the 1200m, he ran a cracker last time but he's so in and out these days that you never know which one will turn up. Think DOR may be too good for them in the 2400 and at the current odds is a good ew bet as he should get placed. MrD - Able Friend has 2 more runs in HK and then all systems go for Royal Ascot.....what price do you think he'd be for that and what's the competition likely to be like if he does make it? Did you see his last 2 wins in HK? |
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Think Ryan Moore is riding Amber Sky too - this was his latest trial run....impressive and beat trees but he looks in form
http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/video/play.asp?type=brts&date=20150303&no=02&lang=eng |
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hey chaps what are you making of golden barrows in UAE derby seems very short in betting for winning some big field condition races...likely improver but what sort of times has he been running?? and how do you read him
am trying to find a decent runner and so far only designs on rome really looking solid but even he has questions to answer in regards trip, at least he has the class to beat these after a perfect prep...flintshire will race him, in what looks a match to me the duty free is the most interesting race to me with the grey gatsby coming back off the lay off, on pure ability looking clear pick, however i think he may just need it plus the pace of the race is likely to decide his fate...freddie heads gelding makes a lot of appeal and just keeps improving i like him...faraaj is a good a horse on his day and may just improve again this season, he isn't out of this if in top shape...euro charline was a big improver last year but i think she will struggle against real top notchers and she would surprise me if she were good enough, she will win her share this year probably in grade 2 company or against inferior turf horses in the states |
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Thanks HK for the Amber Sky trial link, very impressed with the way he travelled through out the trial run. Looked a strong piece of work to me and has got me changing my mind again! As I posted before the draw will be key to this race and I think you and Benjy are probably right about Peniaphobia. For him to win this he will need to get a good tow into the race so he can pick them off at the depth, if he's drawn away from speed balls it could be a race which he never gets into. I will wait until Wednesday when the draw is made before making my final decision. The Hong Kong horses will be out on the Meydan track for the first time tomorrow, it will be interesting to see how they all are after shipping in.
I love Lucky Nine but not sure about him on dirt HK. His run last time was what I was expecting in the Hong Kong Sprint, it was a cracking effort and shows he has still got it. He has been backed today for the race with the 12-1 long gone... he's now as short as 6-1! I'm just not sure the dirt will be to his liking and the Americans look like they have got a strong hand in the Golden Shaheen. ELG could be onto something with Salutos Amigos.  Not sure why Solow is favourite for the Dubai Turf, he's won some weak G2/G3 races and I think he will have to step up a fair bit to win this. Agree with you Harry regarding TGG, he's the best horse in the race winning two good G1 races but he will need a strong pace to see him at his best and that's not guaranteed. I'm more than likely going to back Euro Charline EW, she might not be good enough but she has never raced against colts in a Group race before, so I'm willing to give this tenacious little filly a chance... she might surprise a few Saturday with the Magic Man on board. If it's a slow muddling race it could play more to her strengths. The fillys have had some success in this race over the years as well, a few winners and placed efforts. Able Friend was awesome in both races and I really hope he does come to Royal Ascot HK. Not sure who he will be up against in the Queen Anne Stakes because most of the good 3yr olds have been packed off to stud but I would make him a very short price favourite HK... I'm looking for anything odds against!  |
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Depth, I meant death!
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Pat Cummings @DubaiRaceNight · 49m 49 minutes ago
Absolute consensus from many here, me included, Lea looks FANTASTIC! |
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MrD - can't agree on the draw - peniaphobia was drawn 1 in the race when he beat BOJ over 1000m on 25th jan, BOJ had the plum draw in 8. The more I look at it the more I think P will win. Also L9 has won on dirt and trialled very well on it recently.
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There was only 8 runners in that race HK, not sure it would have been a massive disadvantage. There could be double that in the Al Quoz sprint and I think the draw will play a big part. Do you think Peniaphobia will win if he's drawn away from the pace HK? I'm not sure.
I know Lucky Nine has got placed a few times on synthetic tracks but didn't realise he had won on dirt. 10-1 still available! |
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He's got good gate speed and will get to where it is - the more I look at it the more I think he'll win (back Amber Sky now chaps!!)
Seems Moore is pleased with DOR too - the only issue I can think going against DOR is that it's a LH track ,Sha Tin is RH so it may be an issue. |
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Yep, Amber Sky will do for me now. Bundle Of Joy and Peniaphobia both out on the wings!!
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Looking at the race HK all the speed is high so maybe Peniaphobia will get a nice tow into it even though he's on the outside. Keep changing my mind but between the two for me now.n
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AS drawn next to Peniaphobia
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Amber Sky in 10 and Peniaphobia in 16 but Capsian Prince in 12 and the American speed ball Distinctiv Passion in 14. Distinctiv Passion is supposed to be very quick out of the gates.
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Set up for Peniaphobia
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Sticking with Peniaphobia but Hototo provides pace for the low drawn horses. No excuses.
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peniaphobia lost weight on the flight over but is putting it back on
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Super competitive races which have made me change my mind way too many times but I've had a dabble in a few of the big ones. The Al Qouz Sprint has been my biggest headache, took the advice of Benjy/HK and have now backed Peniaphobia at 11/2. Most of the pace looks like it's going to come from the middle to high drawn horses so looking for Peniaphobia to get a good lead off Distinctiv Passion and finish off the race better than the rest. Very tough race this one.
 In Dubai Golden Shaheen I've backed Salutos Amigos at 11/2 mainly because of the fact he's in great form and will have no worries with the Dirt. One slight concern is his form in G1 races which is not great but he's got a good draw in barrier 5 so gone with him. I kept debating with myself whether Lucky Nine likes Dirt but HK is confident so that's good enough for me. I couldn't let my old mate go unbacked so added him at 10/1 EW. The Dubai Turf should be The Grey Gatsby's for the taking and his price is starting to reflect that (should be fav) but I'm not that confident he will get the strong pace I think he needs so backed Euro Charline 11-1 EW. Drawn in 1 is not great and it could be tricky getting a good position from there but I really like this filly (tough and gutsy) and hope she runs as well as Team Valor think she will. She also has the Magic Man onboard.  The Sheema Classic was another head scratcher for me, torn between Flintshire and Designs On Rome. Made the easy decision and backed both at 9/2 hoping one of them wins. I was going to leave the Dubai World Cup race alone after my antepost bet on Tonalist never took off but decided to back Hokko Tarumae at 12-1 EW. One of the Yanks will probably win but HT's run last year was too bad to be true (had colitis soon after) and with this race back on Dirt and a good draw in 2 for his style of racing I think he might run a lot better... should at least beat the ambulance this time!!! Good luck all. |
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? was main sequence on the magic juice all its runs in the usa ,as all drugs are banned here i believe ,think he has a good chance if his form has not been helped by lasix in the usa
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Good luck MrD - I've done Peniaphobia and Designs on Rome......my largest bet is on DOR, I really think he's much better than Flintshire based on the form of the HK Vase (I'm assuming DOR will get the 2400), the horses in 2nd, 3rd and 4th in the Vase were given a lot of weight and a beating by DOR on 7th Feb (Over shorter distance) but I just think he'd do the same to them over further. I'm not overly confident in Peniaphobia with the weight loss but I think he's the best HK sprinter (though Gold Fun and Aerovelocity may have a shout but they aren't in the races)......so I have to back him, if Amber Sky is back to form it's going to be a great finish.
Good luck all |
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One point to mention for DOR - you may well get a big price in running as he takes a bit of stoking up
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Good luck HK, I think we might need some today. I really struggled with some of these races but looking forward to it and the Sheema Classic and Al Quoz Sprint look the best races on the card IMO. I would have been just a DOR backer but I'm not sure where the pace is going to come from in this race and it keeps reminding me of that 12f race at Sha Tin when DOR never landed a blow because of the muddling slow pace. If the Magic Man can get him closer this time I'm confident he will have a chance of winning but I've got a feeling the race pace might suit Flintshire better with his style of racing. The other thing with Flintshire he ticks a lot of boxes stats wise, one of which is winning form over 12f which DOR doesn't have. I like both horses a lot and will be a happy camper if one of them wins but really hope DOR wins so we will both be happy!!
How do you think Aerovelocity will get on in Japan tomorrow HK? He's got a great draw and shouldn't have any problems with the track but rain is forecast tomorrow!? |
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He's in good form and is drawn well but hasn't run on anything worse than good going so you're taking it on trust if it get softer, he'd be a very short price if it was being run Sha Tin against this field.
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No odds available for the race yet here but will keep my eye on it... will be a backer if the wet weather stays away!? Cheers HK.
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Have had to back Sole Power as he is 18-1 on HKJC
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Nice price HK on Sole Power, thought Peniaphobia had it but could see Sole Power coming and won like he has many times... cracking race.
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Aye, WD HK.
Two 2nds running for me  |
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I'm still not convinced 1000m is Peniaphobia's best distance, though he is only 4 so should get better. Sole Power ended up 14-1 so not too bad (some awful prices on there for HK horse - DOR is evens!!). Very good race though and winner did it well.
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I've done Lucky 9 MrD as I think he'll like the dirt.
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Close but no cigar Benjy, two good runs.
Better than 11-2 HK, well played. I'm still not sure about Lucky Nine on Dirt in a G1 but we'll soon find out. He's by Dubawi so hopefully he will! |
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very strange ride on L9 - not his normal way of riding
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