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Shrews
18 Mar 15 23:53
Joined:
Date Joined: 24 Dec 03
| Topic/replies: 10,160 | Blogger: Shrews's blog
I had a go at doing this a few years ago and although I didn't get the winner (or places) one of my shortlist finished 6th from memory (Mars) and another finished 10th (Festive Cheer) so I did manage to get a run and plenty of fun tracking them through their 2yo and early 3yo careers. I had the winner (Ruler Of The World) in a long list but eliminated it for some daft reason.

Again I am going to concentrate on the Aidan O'Brien horses which cuts it down to 64.

From these I've removed any horse who does not have Galileo, Montjeu, Sadlers Wells, Kingmambo or Green Desert in their viewable 'free' profile, which cuts it down by 11 to 53 (52 don't have names yet!)

1       00a Z Warrior   3 9-0 A P O´Brien    —  — —
2       00airwave   3 9-0 A P O´Brien    —  — —
3       00another Storm   3 9-0 A P O´Brien    —  — —
4       00apticanti   3 9-0 A P O´Brien    —  — —
5       00artistique   3 9-0 A P O´Brien    —  — —
6       00ask For The Moon   3 9-0 A P O´Brien    —  — —
7       00banquise   3 9-0 A P O´Brien    —  — —
8       00bonheur   3 9-0 A P O´Brien    —  — —
9       00cherry Hinton   3 9-0 A P O´Brien    —  — —
10       00chintz   3 9-0 A P O´Brien    —  — —
11       00christmas Kid   3 9-0 A P O´Brien    —  — —
12       00circle Of Life   3 9-0 A P O´Brien    —  — —
13       00dame Again   3 9-0 A P O´Brien    —  — —
14       00dance For Fun   3 9-0 A P O´Brien    —  — —
15       00devoted To You   3 9-0 A P O´Brien    —  — —
16       00ecology   3 9-0 A P O´Brien    —  — —
17       00famous   3 9-0 A P O´Brien    —  — —
18       00flirtation   3 9-0 A P O´Brien    —  — —
19       00golden Dancer   3 9-0 A P O´Brien    —  — —
20       00halland Park Lass   3 9-0 A P O´Brien    —  — —
21       00honorlina   3 9-0 A P O´Brien    —  — —
22       00hveger   3 9-0 A P O´Brien    —  — —
23       00ideal   3 9-0 A P O´Brien    —  — —
24       00imagine   3 9-0 A P O´Brien    —  — —
25       00inca Princess   3 9-0 A P O´Brien    —  — —
26       00lady Icarus   3 9-0 A P O´Brien    —  — —
27       00lahinch   3 9-0 A P O´Brien    —  — —
28       00leonia   3 9-0 A P O´Brien    —  — —
29       00liscanna   3 9-0 A P O´Brien    —  — —
30       00moonstone   3 9-0 A P O´Brien    —  — —
31       00moving Diamonds   3 9-0 A P O´Brien    —  — —
32       00mubkera   3 9-0 A P O´Brien    —  — —
33       00mythical Echo   3 9-0 A P O´Brien    —  — —
34       00one Moment In Time   3 9-0 A P O´Brien    —  — —
35       00penang Pearl   3 9-0 A P O´Brien    —  — —
36       00penny Post   3 9-0 A P O´Brien    —  — —
37       00perihelion   3 9-0 A P O´Brien    —  — —
38       00pipalong   3 9-0 A P O´Brien    —  — —
39       00rags To Riches   3 9-0 A P O´Brien    —  — —
40       00remember When   3 9-0 A P O´Brien    —  — —
41       00rimth   3 9-0 A P O´Brien    —  — —
42       00rumplestiltskin   3 9-0 A P O´Brien    —  — —
43       00scribonia   3 9-0 A P O´Brien    —  — —
44       00seatone   3 9-0 A P O´Brien    —  — —
45       00secret Garden   3 9-0 A P O´Brien    —  — —
46       00sharp Lisa   3 9-0 A P O´Brien    —  — —
47       00sumora   3 9-0 A P O´Brien    —  — —
48       00tarbela   3 9-0 A P O´Brien    —  — —
49       00treasure Trail   3 9-0 A P O´Brien    —  — —
50       00walklikeanegyptian   3 9-0 A P O´Brien    —  — —
51       00walzerkoenigin   3 9-0 A P O´Brien    —  — —
52       00wonder Of Wonders   3 9-0 A P O´Brien    —  — —
53       Altissimo   3 9-0 A P O´Brien    —  — —

Next step is to look at the Dosage Profiles

These are the highest and lowest Dosage scores for any Derby winner for the last 11 years

Brilliant: Low 1: High 9
Intermediate:  Low 0: High 4
Classic: Low 5: High 21
Solid: Low 0: High 8
Professional: Low 0: High 3
Dosage Index: Low 0.54: High 3
Centre Of Distribution: Low -0.50: High 0.81
Intermediate/Classic/Solid (ICS) total: Low 6: High 29
Total Dosage Total: Low 10: High 38

Remove any that are not within these ranges  (will continue tomorrow.....)
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Report Shrews March 19, 2015 7:44 PM GMT
There are 15 eliminated based on the above:

   00another Storm   3 9-0 A P O´Brien    —  — —   Intermediate is too high (6)
   00apticanti   3 9-0 A P O´Brien    —  — — Classic, Solid, ICS and Total all too high
   00bonheur   3 9-0 A P O´Brien    —  — — Brilliant (10), Intermediate (6) too high
   00cherry Hinton   3 9-0 A P O´Brien    —  — — Intermediate is too high (5)
   00ecology   3 9-0 A P O´Brien    —  — — Intermediate is too high (6)
   00honorlina   3 9-0 A P O´Brien    —  — — Solid is too high (12)
   00imagine   3 9-0 A P O´Brien    —  — — Intermediate is too high (5)
   00lady Icarus   3 9-0 A P O´Brien    —  — — Solid is too high (9)
   00leonia   3 9-0 A P O´Brien    —  — — Professional is too high (4)
   00liscanna   3 9-0 A P O´Brien    —  — — Intermediate is too high (5)
   00moving Diamonds   3 9-0 A P O´Brien    —  — — Solid is too high, DI too low,ICS too high
   00rags To Riches   3 9-0 A P O´Brien    —  — — Intermediate is too high (5)
   00seatone   3 9-0 A P O´Brien    —  — — Solid is too high (13), ICS too high (35)
   00sumora   3 9-0 A P O´Brien    —  — — Intermediate is too high (6)
   00treasure Trail   3 9-0 A P O´Brien    —  — — Intermediate too high (11), ICS too high 32

Which leaves 38.

More to follow........
Report Shrews March 19, 2015 8:38 PM GMT
Remove those which are the furthest away from the 'Adjusted Average' (the average of the last 11 winners minus any abnormal figures i.e for Brilliant 3,9,6,4,7,5,5,4,1,8,4 the two abnormalities were:-  9 (Ruler Of The World) and the 1 (Sir Ivor), these were removed to basis the average on 9 winners)

ADJ AVERAGE    5    1    13    6    1    (1.12)    (0.19)    18.875    24.375

This eliminates nine horses:

Brilliant: 00rumplestiltskin, 00walzerkoenigin (both 8)
Intermediate: 00a Z Warrior, 00airwave, 00golden Dancer, 00penny Post, 00perihelion (all 4)
Classic: 00artistique (7)
Solid: None different to the above
Professional: None different to the above
DI: None different to the above
CD: None different to the above
ICS: 00wonder Of Wonders
Total: None different to the above

This leaves 29 horses

More to follow............
Report Shrews March 19, 2015 9:10 PM GMT
Again using the adjusted averages remove those who are more than 1 either side of the average for B,I,C,S,P i.e for Brilliant the 'Adjusted Average' is 5, so 4,5,6 are ok but 3 isn't and 6 isn't.  This time it needs two eliminations from each criteria to eliminate completely.

This removes 18:

   00ask For The Moon  - Classic and Solid
   00chintz - Classic and Solid
   00dame Again - Intermediate and Solid
   00dance For Fun -  Classic and Solid
   00devoted To You - Classic and Solid
   00famous - Classic and Solid
   00flirtation - Classic and Solid
   00ideal - Brilliant and Intermediate
   00inca Princess - Brilliant, Classic and Solid
   00lahinch - Classic and Solid
   00moonstone - Brilliant, Classic and Solid
   00mythical Echo - Brilliant and Classic
   00pipalong - Brilliant, Classic and Solid
   00remember When - Classic and Solid
   00rimth - Brilliant, Classic and Solid
   00secret Garden - Classic and Solid
   00tarbela - Intermediate and Classic
   Altissimo - Classic and Solid

This leaves eleven, so one to remove to find a top 10.  Hold on, I'll find a way  Grin......
Report Shrews March 19, 2015 9:50 PM GMT
Using the 'real averages' for B,I,C,S,P of 5,1,12,4,1 there were two horses who did not finish 'one either side' and both were for Classic and Solid.

   00penang Pearl 
   00halland Park Lass

So both these are eliminated, leaving just 9 horses left.  All these nine I am going to track and will 'name' them once their names are known.

The nine tracked horses are.....

   00banquise   
   00christmas Kid   
   00circle Of Life   
   00hveger   
   00mubkera   
   00one Moment In Time   
   00scribonia   
   00sharp Lisa   
   00walklikeanegyptian

All these horses are by Galileo, so I'm going to look at the record of the broodmares..........
Report Shrews March 19, 2015 10:50 PM GMT
00banquise - WON a 2m 6k handicap on Good in France   
   00christmas Kid - WON an 8f £158k Grade 1 Fillies race on fast Polytrack in the States   
   00circle Of Life - WON a 7f £72k Grade 1 Fillies race on fast Dirt in the States   
   00hveger - 3rd of 20 in a 10f £69k Grade 1 Fillies race on good in Australia (Schweppes Oaks) 
   00mubkera - 2nd of 13 in a 10f £16k listed Fillies race on Gd/Fm at Brighton   
   00one Moment In Time  - Unraced 
   00scribonia   - Unraced
   00sharp Lisa  -  WON an 8f £78k Grade 1 Fillies race on fast Dirt in the States   
   00walklikeanegyptian - WON a 5f £5k Nursery on Gd/FM at Folkestone

Of those, the 5 mares with the best form are:

00christmas Kid
00sharp Lisa
00circle Of Life
00hveger
00mubkera

The dams broodmare records are as follows:

00christmas Kid - best offspring Michaelmas, 2nd in a Group 3 7f 31k 2yo race in Ireland(OR = 103)
00sharp Lisa - best offspring Unanimous, WON a 5k 8f Maiden on Soft in Ireland (OR = 92)
00circle Of Life - best offspring Circular Quay, WON 2x Grade 2's and 1x Grade 3 in the States
00hveger - best offspring is Highland Reel, 3rd favourite for this year's Derby, full brother to 00hveger
00mubkera - best offspring is Green Destiny, WON the £28k Group 3 Arc trial at Newbury (OR = 119)

Selections:

1st - 00hveger
2nd - 00circle Of Life
3rd - Mubkera

Easy sometimes this racing lark!  Excited
Report Shrews March 19, 2015 10:51 PM GMT
00Mubkera
Report Shrews March 19, 2015 10:58 PM GMT
Anybody willing to give me 100/1 on those 3 horses for £2 stakes?
Report kincsem March 20, 2015 3:15 PM GMT
Shrews I'll give you £200 if any of them wins, assuming I'm alive at the time.
In the meantime I might ruin your thread by putting up my selection.
Like you I take a systems approach to racing.  I might take a while to come up with a nag for the 2016 Derby.
Keep posting.  I like this stuff.
Report Shrews March 20, 2015 10:14 PM GMT
All the merrier mate, it adds a bit of fun post-Cheltenham IMO.  I like to track these horses, it gives me some sort of connection to them.  Perhaps one day AOB will give me one of them for free.  I'll run him in the Derby and in the following years Triumph Hurdle  Laugh
Report Shrews March 22, 2015 3:35 PM GMT
Just searched for some sales info with regards to Galileo x Hveger and found this:

http://live.racingpost.com/Event/Tatts_Oct_9

Lot 327: b c Galileo - Hveger (Danehill)

Will join his brother Highland Reel under the Coolmore umbrella after selling for 775,000gns out of the Camas Park Stud consignment to MV Magnier.

He boasts a dual hemisphere pedigree as the son of the Australian-bred Hveger, who ran third in the Australasian Oaks. She is out of the AJC Oaks heroine Circles Of Gold and a half-sister to the top-class pair Elvstroem and Haradasun. The latter was campaigned by Coolmore to win the Queen Anne Stakes at Royal Ascot and up until recently stood for the operation in Australia.

In addition to Highland Reel, who is a general 10/1 shot for next year's Derby off the back of an impressive win in the Vintage Stakes for Aidan O'Brien in August, Hveger is also the dam of Valdemoro (by Encosta De Lago), who has been Group 1-placed in Australia.
Report sintonian March 22, 2015 4:51 PM GMT
when the Galileo x Hveger has been named post it on here...ta.
Report kincsem March 24, 2015 4:44 PM GMT
My picks for Derby 2016

1. “Phidian”............................. by Galileo out of Divine Proportions by Kingmambo (P Bary)
2. “00 multicolour Wave” ........by Shamardal out of Multicolour Wave by Rainbow Quest (John Gosden)
3. “00 aqaarid” ........................by Sir Percy out of Aqaarid by Nashwan  (David Lanigan)
Report PeteTheBloke March 24, 2015 7:16 PM GMT
Galileo x Kind trained by Andre Fabre. 66/1 Baldies and Race Bets.

Don't say I didn't tell you.
Report Shrews March 26, 2015 6:51 PM GMT
Galileo x Kind = Frankel !!!!!

Never raced over 12f, but that's not to say his younger full-brother won't.  You sure he's with Andre Fabre as the RP says 'trainer unknown'?

66/1 for Frankel2 in the 2016 Derby, might be worth a little punt!
Report Michrich March 26, 2015 9:06 PM GMT
Do you think Kind's children have proven to be better over 10 furlongs rather than 12? I know it shows a 1 for the Grand Prix De Saint Cloud last year but that is only because the winner was subsequently disqualified and NM had nothing left in the tank. His record over 12 furlongs was 2142341421 (3 from 10) and not including the original 2nd place being promoted to first which would have made it 2 from 10 but his 10 furlong record was 1234111121 (6 from 10) if if you exclude runs outside UK and Ire it was 12311111. Bullet Train won the Lingfield Derby trial in a week race but then was last of 12 in the Derby and well beaten in the King Edward VII. Would Frankel of stayed a mile and a half? Henry Cecil didn't seem to think he would at 3 years of age but maybe that was because he struggled to settle early in his career. If I was picking him for any race at this stage it would be the Prix Du Jockey Club.
Report PeteTheBloke March 29, 2015 1:55 PM BST
@ Shrews - I read the bit about Fabre on the Racebets website. They'll probably void my bet if it wins the Derby
and is trained by O'Brien Scared
Report Shrews March 29, 2015 2:30 PM BST
That's just silly.  It's 'trainer unknown' according to the RP. Surely they're taking that into account when pricing up the bet as you're taking it into account by reading the RP.  Take a screenshot of the RP and send it to them. 

Their price is surely based on 'trainer unknown'?
Report Shrewd_dude March 31, 2015 8:55 PM BST
Had a bit of the 66's myself as well. Teddy Grimthorpe said he would be trained by Fabre last December.
Report PeteTheBloke April 2, 2015 7:24 PM BST
I'm prepared to be surprised. For a bet this small I'm just paying to have "one to follow".
Report Shrews April 2, 2015 10:58 PM BST
I've just read that back, so just for clarification I did mean Racebets would be silly rather than your good self!  It's 'unknown' on the RP site (take a screenshot).  They can't void a bet based on who they think might be the trainer or they'd have to void every bet (unless of course the horse trains itself and still turns up 'unknown' on the day) Laugh They having got a prayer of voiding it!
Report PeteTheBloke April 3, 2015 9:41 AM BST
Shrews - I was joking (I hope).

I don't have a very high opinion of bookies, but I don't think they'd do that.
Recently I spotted a very decent arb on a European football match. It wasn't on
obscure teams - a big Spanish league game. I contacted the bookie and asked if all the
prices were good and they said yes. I had a tentative bet and they took it. I had
another and they took it. I waited a day and had another, and they took it. Meanwhile
I arbed each one on here. Then I got nervous, so I rang 'em up and said, "Is this price
still good?" and they voided ALL my bets. Luckily I was able to straighten my book on
here, but I was spitting bullets.

S p o r t i n g B e t
Report Shrews April 4, 2015 12:15 AM BST
Bookies running scared as far as horse racing goes? 

Maybe.

Let's face it the internet/information age has made it more of an equal standing, twenty years ago all we had was the form pages in the tabloids! However, nowadays the bookies casino's are coining it to make up for it!! And virtual racing, some people still actually bet on it  Shocked

Back to the thread, one of my nine tracked horses has been named!

00walklikeanegyptian (Galileo) - is now called Deauville
Report Shrews May 21, 2015 11:46 PM BST
00hveger has now been named as Idaho Grin
Report Shrews May 23, 2015 4:28 PM BST
There's been a purge on the naming front, with just two of my nine tracked horses to be named (best three in bold)

00banquise - now called New Millenium
00christmas Kid - now called Black Sea
00circle Of Life   
00hveger - now called Idaho
00mubkera - now called A Year To Remember
00one Moment In Time   
00scribonia -  now called The Major General
00sharp Lisa - now called Houses Of Parliament
00walklikeanegyptian - now called Deauville
Report Shrews May 31, 2015 4:39 PM BST
Update on my 9 'tracked' horses:

00OneMomentInTime is now called Unicorn
00Circleoflife is still to be named   


A Year To Remember
Black Sea
Deauville
Houses Of Parliament
Idaho
New Millenium
The Major General
Unicorn

Deauville won the 2.40 Listowel today over 7f @ 6/4
Report PeteTheBloke July 25, 2015 7:22 PM BST
TTT - Shrews - are you there?

Current fav with the books is Sanus Per Aquam (IRE) which has been beaten by the above-mentioned Deauville.
Report PeteTheBloke August 17, 2015 10:46 PM BST
Galileo x Kind is now called Proconsul

Where's Shrews? Hope he hasn't shuffled untimely off this mortal coil. Can I have his
AP vouchers, please Mrs Shrews?
Report PeteTheBloke August 17, 2015 10:58 PM BST
It's been a while since Fabre won the 2000gns. I wonder if he'd fancy a crack with Frankel's brother?
Report Howellsy August 17, 2015 11:06 PM BST
I think if you know you've got something special you've got to go to Newmarket. It's THE Guineas. I suspect Fabre believes that, and he would probably be directed that way by the owner anyway, if the horse was deemed special. Proconsul eh? That's really not an especially inspiring name is it?
Report Benjy September 5, 2015 5:14 PM BST
any thoughts on Foundation's prospects of being a derby horse?
Report lingbleed September 5, 2015 10:33 PM BST
Foundation ran really well and won easily ,but its that time of year where you can get funny ground ,soft , dead and sticky and prob a little bit of good in there some where as well .In laymans term's , i don't trust form on that weird sort of ground ,some go on it ,few like it ,and most don't go on it or like it
Report Beryl September 26, 2015 5:18 PM BST
What to make of Foundation and his breeding?

Was certainly impressive today.
Report unclepuncle October 14, 2015 9:36 AM BST
The colt out of Hveger is called Idaho and won very nicely on debut at the Currgah yesterday - hope you got a good price.
Report Shrews May 23, 2016 10:03 PM BST
So just a revisit on this one as the big day approaches.  Of the nine tracked horses just two remain, Idaho (Galileo x Hveger) and Deauville (Galileo x Walklikeanegyptian).

Idaho was my number one horse, so I'm sticking with that and 33's or so still available on here.
Report impossible123 May 23, 2016 10:21 PM BST
What about Us Army Ranger and Port Douglas? They are by Galileo/Moonstone and Galileo/Walzerkoenigin respectively.
Report lordnoise May 23, 2016 10:46 PM BST
(Shrews - great thread but do have a saver on Dermot Welds Harzand who beat your horse fair and square in the Ballysax. Although as little as 30 or so on here on the whole Harzands an 'under the radar horse' whos relatives have shown definite Summer ground proclivities).
Report Shrews May 23, 2016 11:06 PM BST
What about Us Army Ranger and Port Douglas? They are by Galileo/Moonstone and Galileo/Walzerkoenigin respectively.

Port Douglas = eliminated at the 38 down to 29 stage
US Army Ranger - eliminated at the 29 down to 11 stage

Harzand - not by Galileo or trained by AOB so I wouldn't consider that one, and although Golden Horn wasn't an AOB horse,he was a special animal and I'm expecting it to be business as usual for AOB this time.
Report impossible123 May 23, 2016 11:18 PM BST
Shrews

Thank-you.

Connections of Harzand has voiced preference for the Irish Derby and the St Leger.
Report lordnoise May 24, 2016 10:22 AM BST
From todays Irish Times ...
“We will review things closer to the time and see what the weather is doing and what the ground is like before making a definite decision. But there is a distinct possibility Harzand will run,” said the Curragh trainer who has famously yet to add the Derby to his illustrious CV.
Report kincsem May 24, 2016 2:32 PM BST
kincsem
Shrews I'll give you £200 if any of them wins, assuming I'm alive at the time.


Shrews, good luck. Cool
Report kincsem May 29, 2016 1:34 PM BST
Fingers crossed he runs.
Report kincsem May 30, 2016 1:55 PM BST
Shrews,
If Idaho struggles around and flukes the win I will be thrilled to pay.
Magnificent performance to pick a horse that made the field.
For the record he is 32s on Betfair and I've put €10 on as insurance.
PM me your address if the nag wins.
Report monksland June 1, 2016 2:49 PM BST
Agreed - great thread! Best of luck if he runs
Report The Headmaster June 1, 2016 3:05 PM BST
Very sporting kincsem.  You're the daddy.
Report Shrews June 3, 2016 7:30 PM BST
Don't forget that Deauville is also one of the nine tracked runners!

Kincsem I wouldn't take your money, instead you can put a tenner on something you fancy on Sunday and if that wins then give the winnings to a charity of your choice.

I already the 2017 version ready to go!
Report lordnoise June 4, 2016 6:55 PM BST
Enjoyed the thread Shrews (once I understood it Laugh ) Might be worth thinking about at least making sure u don't lose should any horse beat your selection in a prep race. Looking forward to 2017 already ...
Report posy November 19, 2016 12:44 PM GMT
just stumbled upon this thread whilst researching Dosage...a fantastic read.
Report kincsem November 21, 2016 3:12 PM GMT
Just to sidetrack the thread
Dosage
http://www.chef-de-race.com/farewell.htm
Report Shrews February 14, 2017 7:55 PM GMT
Apols, just didn't get around to posting the 2017 version, but here is the top 5

00penang Pearl - still unnamed
00you´resothrilling - now called Taj Mahal - currently 66/1
Finn McCool = currently 66/1
00ventura - now called The Swagman - no odds, still unraced
00famous - now called Abyssinian - no odds, just one poor run so far

Hardly an inspiring top 5!!

Best hopes possibly lie with the unraced duo.
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