Horse Antepost
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Forget the rush to fill column inches and write off Sprinter Sacre based on his good run lto. He got tired having been off the track for a long time, he was keen early and went wide around a few bends and it was soft ground. He was beaten by a fit and improving rival who is trained by a master who had him in A1 form.
Sprinter Sacre is not the horse of old. But he doesn't need to be to win a bog average Champion Chase. Sprinter's run at Ascot lto was only 3lb below all his rivals best RPR. Sprinter only needs to improve the expected amount for that run to win the Champion Chase.
Forget the Big Bucks comparisons, he isn't 11yo and wasn't beaten by a 148 rated horse. He was beaten by the race fit 171 rated Tingle Creek winner. Sire De Grugy ran a poor race and was beaten when unseating on his first run of the season but looked much improved in how he ran when next seen.
Finally we ave the real comparison. Denman, who had a more serious heart problem which required medication to fix, unlike Sprinter. Denman came back as was thumped 19l on his first run back, then ran a huge race to improve massively and come 2nd in the Gold Cup. He ran a career equaling 182 when winning his 2nd Hennessy later that year.
Sprinter Sacre only needs to improve a few lbs to win. He has to find just a little bit of the 20lbs he used to have. He'll probably bet 4/1 on the Wednesday morning when he will be a big target for the bookies. My advice, join me in having a big cut at it. Stick in a stake lay around the 2.2 mark as insurance and enjoy the race.
He'll run a 177 and win
Sprinter Sacre is not the horse of old. But he doesn't need to be to win a bog average Champion Chase. Sprinter's run at Ascot lto was only 3lb below all his rivals best RPR. Sprinter only needs to improve the expected amount for that run to win the Champion Chase.
Forget the Big Bucks comparisons, he isn't 11yo and wasn't beaten by a 148 rated horse. He was beaten by the race fit 171 rated Tingle Creek winner. Sire De Grugy ran a poor race and was beaten when unseating on his first run of the season but looked much improved in how he ran when next seen.
Finally we ave the real comparison. Denman, who had a more serious heart problem which required medication to fix, unlike Sprinter. Denman came back as was thumped 19l on his first run back, then ran a huge race to improve massively and come 2nd in the Gold Cup. He ran a career equaling 182 when winning his 2nd Hennessy later that year.
Sprinter Sacre only needs to improve a few lbs to win. He has to find just a little bit of the 20lbs he used to have. He'll probably bet 4/1 on the Wednesday morning when he will be a big target for the bookies. My advice, join me in having a big cut at it. Stick in a stake lay around the 2.2 mark as insurance and enjoy the race.
He'll run a 177 and win
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Replies: 23
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Wrong Forum. Doh
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so why havent the hendo massive who spend their lives mopping up pennnies on here been all over him at fancy prices
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ladbrokes cash offer if in 1st 2...says it all
was a phenom but ain't anymore |
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Would not be so quick in writing SS off just yet.
Fancy him & SDG to fight this out imo. Backed both: 4s & 6s respectively  Ground coming gd for SS |
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it just depends how you read the rating he ran to at ascot...clearly the O.P thinks he ran to a decent mark...personally i don't rate dodging as high as he was rated here...ground ideal, so no excuses and if he can run to a mark anywhere near where the O.P thinks he can he will win...personally i don't think he is anywhere near his best or able to run to this sort of mark, so will be happy if he becomes a public gamble on the day and fingers crossed he goes short...
it seems people who rated the ascot race rated it through somersby who imo ran like a rat on the day, which puts sprinters run into perspective, yes he can only come on for the run but judging by how he collapsed quicker than a cheap millets tent when put under pressure he isn't the horse he was...i am happy to take him on, the only trouble with this is the horses we are tackling him with, like cut in the ground, so it won't be easy anyway if he wins it will be great for racing and fingers crossed he comes home safe and sound...i'm on mr mole coupled with the mullins horse with a saver on the good moore horse who should win...in all fairness it is the most competitive champion chase we have seen for years and if sprinter can turn back the years he will win but not for me until i see him back up a run |
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'the only trouble with this is the horses we are tackling him with, like cut in the ground'
the next 2 in the betting have already won Cheltenham Festival Grade 1s on Good ground |
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People who fancy Sire De Grugy and Sprinter sacre base it on sentiment/nostalgia ... form people will look at Mr Mole and Dodging Bullets.
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duncan in reply to your comment
yes agree they have - however personally i would argue that both horses are far better horses with cut in the ground i would also ask you then duncan - do you believe these 2 horses are better horses on good ground or do you believe they are just as affective on better ground?? champagne fever got mugged on better round last year and the bumper he won was a poor race, sire de grugy just won a poor race last year imo personally i believe both to be better on soft ground myself but handle good ground... i just think when betting we/i want everything in our favour and it just isn't quite here with the prevailing ground my main point above is i don't believe sprinter ran to the mark that was given at ascot but now we are dealing with his ideal conditions... whereas i don't believe the other horses have there ideal conditions thus enabling them to run to there maximum figure to give us the edge and believe you me i am desperate to get the good horse here, it just isn't going to be as easy as i first thought in all honesty... i will still be taking him on as think he is vulnerable, i'm just not sure of my staking now and need to think it through tbh as the prevailing conditions are taking me to task and am get a tad twitchy in regards getting him out the frame...much to ponder in the next 2 days People who fancy Sire De Grugy and Sprinter sacre base it on sentiment/nostalgia ... form people will look at Mr Mole and Dodging Bullets. not sure i agree with this iris in regards sire de grugy who has just given a huge amount of weight and a good beating to some nice horses and imo ran a career high... in regards sprinter i do agree |
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correction-he was the best 2 mile chaser but that was 2 whole years ago. Calgary Bay was a top class chaser then as well but he can't get placed in a hunter chase now. I'm not suggesting that SS has gone back that much but 2 years is a long time and Dodging Bullets beat him very easily. The other factor is the stable. I know that they are still running well in novice hurdles but just 6 novice chase wins in 8 months is hardly encouraging. Not a single handicap or conditions chase win since August!
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No sentiment in my betting plan.
I've backed who i think are the best 2 horses in the race (imo) |
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Dont know how timeform (I think it was them) who rated Sire De Grugys win lto on par with Dodging Bullets - shows some serious flaws in there ratings. Shows serious flaws in pundits sitting on the bandwagon without thinking it through.
Even Nicholls questioned why DB should not be favourite based on his runs. I did feel for SS such a shame to see a Champion lose, they should have retired him with his legacy intact. |
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I thought Nicholls had( on the flip side)suggested that Dodging Bullets may not be a spring horse, as his form tapered off last year around March time, so although he highlighted the form aspect of the horses chances he also issued the negative of perhaps the horse may lose it`s form now that spring had arrived, but he was wrong of course.
This was certainly a race where everything had question marks and hearts where ruling heads. |
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Sacre does not not jump the same as he once did, he should be retired. Exuberance at his fences was his game, with that now obviously gone why even ponder the decision.
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Agree SS should be retired he's not got it physically any more. In hindsight he was probably overraced in his champion season - had he been put away for the season after the festival things might have been different.
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Think it was the Punchestown run which was one too many when you look at the distance he smashed Sizing Europe at Cheltenham and then the distance 2 months later in Ireland. But at least connections raced their champion, they weren't to know his heart would give way.
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where did CVByrne go?
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CVByrne does seem to hang on to past champions for a little too long. He did something similar with Long Run even though horse had shown us that he would down tools when meeting the hill at Cheltenham. Heart ruling the head syndrome.
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Well, I can see the angle CVByrne comes from... in that SS was unbeatable at one time and was winning at a canter... and if you take the fact at how close Somersby got close to winning that Champion suggests well a fully fit SS would have gone close... for that matter Sire De Grugy too.... and it sometimes pays to be loyal to class horses - however, more horse are seen to improve in a shorter space of time... so the window of opportunity reduces... last season would anyone have put Dodging Bullets as the Champion? You couldnt really not based on his runs at Cheltenham 4th in an Arkle, 9th Supreme Novices does not scream out to me... thats my point ... the improvement the horse has shown is reflection that great work trainer has done on the horse over the season... and sometimes potential does outweigh class... and if you look at Uxizandre... Coneygree... Faugheen... etc you need to go into the races with a clear head and forget sentiment... and look at form.
As for SS and SDG if you look at their last runs... it was quite obvious they are not the horses they were... beaten by DB and Mr Mole respectively - BUT out of the two I think SS should be retired - I dont think Henderson is great at longevity of his horses (take Bobs Worth - totally regressed from last season)... and that window is long gone with SS - Shame to see a Champion go so far down the pecking order of champion chasers. However, Sire De Grugy is a different proposition, I think there will be more to come from this horse, I feel connections were rushing the horse a bit to get to Cheltenham - think that was there undoing really - running at Chepstow was imature to say the least... patience is required for a horse coming out from an injury ... but hopefully next season I think he will be a lot closer to Dodging Bullets... if fully fit and connections have learnt their lesson. |
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Iris
To be fair Dodging Bullets only had to improve 7lb from last season to be the victor this year. In a way it was just natural progression and it happened to be good enough. Sacre only needed to tighten up to beat Dodging Bullets on the Ascot form but Cheltenham will find you out if your equilibrium is out of kilter. I didn`t see Sacre jump one fence with the old zest at Ascot but he did travel well to a point, so i can see why people where hopeful. The Moore camp believe Sire De Grugy needs further than 2 miles these days, so that will be interesting although i guess if it was soft would they would fancy him for the CC again? to pick up the place money. |
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Again, I dont think they gave the horse a great chance - I do believe the extra run ruined any chance for the CC... It was quite clear beginning of season he might not get to Chelt - but still managed to get 2 runs before then... not sure many would have risked that.
Just using Somersby as a yardstick id expect DB to have pulled away easy from him and it was much closer than I expected... Tells me its not a Vintage renewal with Special Tiara 3rd but I do expect DB to improve ... I havent finalised my conclusions on SDG and I will wait until early next season... but with UN DE SCEAUX in the picture probably putting everyone off... But SDG yard need to be patient before upping him up on trip... and take him CC route next season - they will know by Dec which route to take, well, unless he gets slammed early by UDS. |
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CV imho is always worth reading as his knowledge and enthusiasm for NH is second to none on this forum but l agree with another poster on this thread about him holding onto falling stars for too long....l remember he was still crazy mad for binocular when everyone knew he had gone. There is little room for sentiment in gambling but lots of room for it in NH racing, CV keep up the good work.
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I think our top performing horses are more fragile than what we think, they perhaps give more the the next horse which is why they are champion material, but when that more begins to hurt they soon fall back into the pack.
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Another week passes by and Henderson chasers continue to run poorly.
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