Horse Antepost
Welcome to Live View – Take the tour to learn more
Start Tour
There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
Evening All
Somewhere to share any thoughts and exchange views,as the 5 day decs approach most of my work will start.The handicaps can be a minefield,large fields with a combination of progressive horses running against those with proven credentials.Armed with the formbook alone,they are time consuming,and with overnight decs the only guarantee of the field,many a festival fan has to burn the midnight oil.
My own approach is to combine a set of criteria,stats and trends some will call them,with the formbook.There are many reasons I use this,in short I just do not get to watch enough racing,I am sceptical of almost every post race analysis I read,and when faced with a field of 24 etc.... where do you start?What I do know is that using this method will generally,not always,give me the profile of the type of horse that I am looking for.
Added to this, 2 factors in our favour,95% will be on a going day,not to be under estimated,and these races are run every year at the same track,under similar conditions,with a wealth of history and information we can use.
Day 1
2-40 Handicap Chase 3m 1f
Half furlong longer than last year
Age 7-10,the recent trend has been toward the younger brigade
27 from 30 winners carried below 11-2
Irish poor record overall
21 from 21 won or placed over 3m
13 from 17, 5-11 chase runs
11 from 15, 4 runs or less current season
19 from 22 ran within 45 days
last 14 winners rated 145 or below
21 from 26 1st or 2nd on either of last 2 starts
11 from last 14 came from off the pace
7 from 12 won lto
Above from gaultstats,there are other factors like course form, festival form etc....that I look for.
Two that would be on radar from initial 89 entries
Clondaw Knight 140
Cowards Close 129
L russell had a placed horse last year that would have been closer with softer ground.
PFN has a poor record in this,however if CC were to get in off 129 ,it is in my opinion well handicapped.
Whatever approach you use feel free to argue your case,or disagree with mine,lets see if we can find one or two handicap winners during the 4 days.
I will stick my shortlist up once plans are known.
GL ALL
Somewhere to share any thoughts and exchange views,as the 5 day decs approach most of my work will start.The handicaps can be a minefield,large fields with a combination of progressive horses running against those with proven credentials.Armed with the formbook alone,they are time consuming,and with overnight decs the only guarantee of the field,many a festival fan has to burn the midnight oil.
My own approach is to combine a set of criteria,stats and trends some will call them,with the formbook.There are many reasons I use this,in short I just do not get to watch enough racing,I am sceptical of almost every post race analysis I read,and when faced with a field of 24 etc.... where do you start?What I do know is that using this method will generally,not always,give me the profile of the type of horse that I am looking for.
Added to this, 2 factors in our favour,95% will be on a going day,not to be under estimated,and these races are run every year at the same track,under similar conditions,with a wealth of history and information we can use.
Day 1
2-40 Handicap Chase 3m 1f
Half furlong longer than last year
Age 7-10,the recent trend has been toward the younger brigade
27 from 30 winners carried below 11-2
Irish poor record overall
21 from 21 won or placed over 3m
13 from 17, 5-11 chase runs
11 from 15, 4 runs or less current season
19 from 22 ran within 45 days
last 14 winners rated 145 or below
21 from 26 1st or 2nd on either of last 2 starts
11 from last 14 came from off the pace
7 from 12 won lto
Above from gaultstats,there are other factors like course form, festival form etc....that I look for.
Two that would be on radar from initial 89 entries
Clondaw Knight 140
Cowards Close 129
L russell had a placed horse last year that would have been closer with softer ground.
PFN has a poor record in this,however if CC were to get in off 129 ,it is in my opinion well handicapped.
Whatever approach you use feel free to argue your case,or disagree with mine,lets see if we can find one or two handicap winners during the 4 days.
I will stick my shortlist up once plans are known.
GL ALL
Show More
Cowards close is a very interesting runner,looks very well placed forbig run, I like Heaney e/w, the Irish struggle in these hcps in recent years,the English handiccapper dictates that,but this one may have slipped under the radar?,and looks solid enough for a place.
I've not read anywhere to tell me that Black Thunder is running in this (if someone has plese let me know), if it was softish ground I'd be interested in him. With Shutthefrontdoor heading to the GN, I think Annacotty could top the weights, Keighley mentioned he is aiming him at festival, Annacotty has two entries including the festival plate, but they have Champion Court for that so I think he'll run here; all imo.
As such I think weights will go up 6lb, as to what will be bottom, I've no idea, last year a rating of 129 got you in the race I doubt it will be the same this year. A compressed handicap always changes the nature of the race favouring the classy top weights, as such I might wait until decs to bet.
The ones I like at the moment are:
Mendip Express
Put away and has been aimed at this after two good runs at the start of the season, had a spin over hurdles to get him ready. He's lightly raced for a 9yo and could still progress from this mark. His chance would increase with any cut in the ground.
Grand Jesture
His Punchestown win is good form, and he looked like he wanted to go further and had a bit in hand, I'd forget his run at Leopordstown as the ground was dire, he needs decent ground to be seen at his best. He interests me from a stable who can win here, his only entry and 33/1
Ned Stark
The whole industry is tipping this one and you can understand why, young progressive chaser who promises to be better than his mark of 143. King does well in this race, he's priced up accordingly but Lads still go 10/1 which I must admit is tempting me.
Vino Griego
Mark has been tumbling, and jockey has been bigging him up on the preview circuit, big price he is and would not surprise me if he were tow win.
Irish Cavalier
A similar type to Ned Stark but much bigger in price, young and progressive and has to be better than 137. His latest run was good form in amongst good sorts over a trip of 2m5f which feels too short. Can see him running a big race.
Pendra
Has had a wind op since his Newbury run, and he ran well at last years festival off 3lb lower, expected to run well over this trip. You can see why he's been backed but I'm not convinced yet.
That's some of my thoughts at the moment, one thing I do not understand however, why is mud loving The Druids Nephew favourite?
As such I think weights will go up 6lb, as to what will be bottom, I've no idea, last year a rating of 129 got you in the race I doubt it will be the same this year. A compressed handicap always changes the nature of the race favouring the classy top weights, as such I might wait until decs to bet.
The ones I like at the moment are:
Mendip Express
Put away and has been aimed at this after two good runs at the start of the season, had a spin over hurdles to get him ready. He's lightly raced for a 9yo and could still progress from this mark. His chance would increase with any cut in the ground.
Grand Jesture
His Punchestown win is good form, and he looked like he wanted to go further and had a bit in hand, I'd forget his run at Leopordstown as the ground was dire, he needs decent ground to be seen at his best. He interests me from a stable who can win here, his only entry and 33/1
Ned Stark
The whole industry is tipping this one and you can understand why, young progressive chaser who promises to be better than his mark of 143. King does well in this race, he's priced up accordingly but Lads still go 10/1 which I must admit is tempting me.
Vino Griego
Mark has been tumbling, and jockey has been bigging him up on the preview circuit, big price he is and would not surprise me if he were tow win.
Irish Cavalier
A similar type to Ned Stark but much bigger in price, young and progressive and has to be better than 137. His latest run was good form in amongst good sorts over a trip of 2m5f which feels too short. Can see him running a big race.
Pendra
Has had a wind op since his Newbury run, and he ran well at last years festival off 3lb lower, expected to run well over this trip. You can see why he's been backed but I'm not convinced yet.
That's some of my thoughts at the moment, one thing I do not understand however, why is mud loving The Druids Nephew favourite?
Evening GI/MJ
The top three there are players for me GI,still early days re decs as quite a few in the kim muir.Cowards close not declared,pfn had a few entered near the top,if thunder goes possibly claimer on board,bowen or sherwood?
A 6lb rise would change things,and may bring a few of those lower down into play.
Indian Castle ran well for a long way 2014,thought the old course might suit him more,looks like he may be going elsewhere by the price on here,radar material.
Like all good jigsaws, we need all the pieces,not long now.
The top three there are players for me GI,still early days re decs as quite a few in the kim muir.Cowards close not declared,pfn had a few entered near the top,if thunder goes possibly claimer on board,bowen or sherwood?
A 6lb rise would change things,and may bring a few of those lower down into play.
Indian Castle ran well for a long way 2014,thought the old course might suit him more,looks like he may be going elsewhere by the price on here,radar material.
Like all good jigsaws, we need all the pieces,not long now.
Vintage Star fits a lot of the trends and also slipped down the weights slightly. Was sent off 16-1 in this last year and 40-1 was available last time I looked for this years race.
Backed Vintage Star last season at 40s,before it was the plunge horse on here.
Don't jump well enough,and nothing this season to back again?
Don't jump well enough,and nothing this season to back again?
Il have to have a few quid though Steve as ive backed it a few times and have bad memories in this race in the past with Golden Chieftain. Used to back that one over a cliff then gave up on him as a dodgepot, then he wins this at 28-1 :(
Good luck sc,like me backed good few times not in this again though.
Also will need good few to come out to get run at present no 35 at present.
24 is max field so touch and go.
Also will need good few to come out to get run at present no 35 at present.
24 is max field so touch and go.
Ned Stark Ultima, hits most trends, well weighted novice Kings best chance of week allegedly 10/1.
Fred Winter
Can't find anything sneaky in here at the moment so please enlighten me.
My unoriginal three against the field are:
Hostile Fire @ 9/1 (
)
Zarib @ 12/1 ( His mark remained the same after winning lto
)
Arabian Revolution @ 12/1 ( Form choice
)
Can't find anything sneaky in here at the moment so please enlighten me.
My unoriginal three against the field are:
Hostile Fire @ 9/1 (
)Zarib @ 12/1 ( His mark remained the same after winning lto
)Arabian Revolution @ 12/1 ( Form choice
)
Day 1
5-15 Novices Handicap Chase 2m 5f
7yr old or younger
Ran within 60 days
won class 3 chase/hurdle
festival form positive
OR 132 or above
1st in either of last 2 runs
Second of day 1 handicaps with very few stats to go on from small sample.Handicap will be compressed, so weight not a big issue here,top weights good record.The only other potential angle may be last time out winners,not unsurprising as we are looking at improving novices.
Nothing stands out for me at present.
Thomas Crapper ran a cracker last year,whether he,s as good over fences remains to be seen.
Will be looking for any clues from jockey bookings and headgear etc.... in a word.....Tough
5-15 Novices Handicap Chase 2m 5f
7yr old or younger
Ran within 60 days
won class 3 chase/hurdle
festival form positive
OR 132 or above
1st in either of last 2 runs
Second of day 1 handicaps with very few stats to go on from small sample.Handicap will be compressed, so weight not a big issue here,top weights good record.The only other potential angle may be last time out winners,not unsurprising as we are looking at improving novices.
Nothing stands out for me at present.
Thomas Crapper ran a cracker last year,whether he,s as good over fences remains to be seen.
Will be looking for any clues from jockey bookings and headgear etc.... in a word.....Tough
Killala Quay and Thomas Crapper, saver Irish Cavalier, tough is correct Nocturnal.
Like Clondaw Knight re Ultima,but backed him in Kim Muir nr nb at 20/1.
Like Clondaw Knight re Ultima,but backed him in Kim Muir nr nb at 20/1.
Not likely they will get in ,so Knock A Hand would be the selection.
Day 2
2-40 Coral Cup 2m 5f
Age 5-7 6/7
weight 15/21 below 11-03
OR 128-147 (not whisper/medinas)
4 runs or less current season 7/7
11/14 10 hurdle runs or less
8/10 second season hurdlers
15/18 top 6 lto
7/12 winner lto
11/12 break 32 days
Consecutive stat breakers in Medinas/Whisper rated 148 and last year 153.
Prior to these two the general trend was to horses below 11-03.
Older horses can run well,GMOH,however the younger brigade have the edge in recent renewals.
Volnay de thaix holding down the weights,only entry,without him things could change significantly.
Three fit the general profile at this stage for me....
Arbre de vie
Zabana
Baradari
Baradari gets in last at present,has the perfect profile and ran really well at last years festival.
VW is adept at winning these competitive handicaps,normally with chasers.Stepped up in trip last time out,no reason to think he still may have a few pounds in hand,versatile re ground this is his only entry.
One of the established Handicaps,normally produces a cracker,plenty good priced winners recently.
2-40 Coral Cup 2m 5f
Age 5-7 6/7
weight 15/21 below 11-03
OR 128-147 (not whisper/medinas)
4 runs or less current season 7/7
11/14 10 hurdle runs or less
8/10 second season hurdlers
15/18 top 6 lto
7/12 winner lto
11/12 break 32 days
Consecutive stat breakers in Medinas/Whisper rated 148 and last year 153.
Prior to these two the general trend was to horses below 11-03.
Older horses can run well,GMOH,however the younger brigade have the edge in recent renewals.
Volnay de thaix holding down the weights,only entry,without him things could change significantly.
Three fit the general profile at this stage for me....
Arbre de vie
Zabana
Baradari
Baradari gets in last at present,has the perfect profile and ran really well at last years festival.
VW is adept at winning these competitive handicaps,normally with chasers.Stepped up in trip last time out,no reason to think he still may have a few pounds in hand,versatile re ground this is his only entry.
One of the established Handicaps,normally produces a cracker,plenty good priced winners recently.
Day 2
4-40 Fred Winter H,cap Hurdle 2m 1/2f
Just the 10 runnings,last 3 winners 33/1,25/1 and 40/1,so this should be fairly easy.
OR 124-133
11-03 or below 8/10
7/10 3 hurdle runs
Ran within 32 days 9/10
4/8 fillies from low % of runners
5/10 won lto
last run graded race or novice hurdle
french breds positive
The only one I can see that meets all is Zarib.
Hostile Fire and Souriyan both ran 39 days ago,not really a negative.
The narrow range in OR,9 lb,may be a starting point.
Looking for a horse just below triumph standard,kept out of h,caps,french bred positive,lightly raced.
Couple winners had claimers on board.
Only the 22 this year,bookies benefit last 3 yrs,bragging rights guaranteed for finding the winner 2015.
Replies to GI MAC who I,m reliably told owns this race!
4-40 Fred Winter H,cap Hurdle 2m 1/2f
Just the 10 runnings,last 3 winners 33/1,25/1 and 40/1,so this should be fairly easy.
OR 124-133
11-03 or below 8/10
7/10 3 hurdle runs
Ran within 32 days 9/10
4/8 fillies from low % of runners
5/10 won lto
last run graded race or novice hurdle
french breds positive
The only one I can see that meets all is Zarib.
Hostile Fire and Souriyan both ran 39 days ago,not really a negative.
The narrow range in OR,9 lb,may be a starting point.
Looking for a horse just below triumph standard,kept out of h,caps,french bred positive,lightly raced.
Couple winners had claimers on board.
Only the 22 this year,bookies benefit last 3 yrs,bragging rights guaranteed for finding the winner 2015.
Replies to GI MAC who I,m reliably told owns this race!
nothing reliable in this game noc 
Arabian Revolution wins this surely.....
Arabian Revolution wins this surely.....
GI.....He certainly fits the profile,just above the weight range for previous winners,on the downside this trainers horses can seem world beaters at times,yet rarely deliver on the big stage.I see he,s booked BJG,6 from 18 for the stable,big positive there,the form with Beltor looks promising,giving him 7lb,its whether he has shown his hand too early for me,there will be a few who will outrun their mark,he is interesting though.
Its always the worry with that trainer, but he's learning and will crack it one day. I'd be surprised if there's not more to come from AR, his mark underestimates him if you take the Beltor form literally.
Decs out for Monday can get stuck into the two hcps now.
Decs out for Monday can get stuck into the two hcps now.
5.15 CHAPS RESTAURANTS BARBADOS NOVICES´ HANDICAP CHASE
6lb covers the 20 runners, a handicap in name only.....
6lb covers the 20 runners, a handicap in name only.....
All yours is very well handicapped imo in the fred winter, pretty sure he is well above at 137 horse. GL
foz... keep an eye on him,needs a few to come out as you say
swardean....see he,s got 4 entered,whatever he runs worth noting,Bouvreuil looks interesting.
swardean....see he,s got 4 entered,whatever he runs worth noting,Bouvreuil looks interesting.
2-40 Day 1
The chelt handicap pin has been found after a year of inactivity,now gleaming and ready to go.
Nothing here meets all the criteria,not unusual,settled for 3 at the prices,in order of preference.
Indian Castle.....20/1
Black Thunder......20/1
Grand Jesture......28/1
I Castle...ran a cracker in K Muir as a 6 yr old when with the out of form DM yard,jumping was a concern,watched all his races this season and its much better,course form in big fields,nicely weighted,trainer/jockey combo not high profile,I think he,s overpriced.
B Thunder....going against the stats re weight here,champ trainer had several entered yet relies on this fella,good claimer booked,eyecatching run behind many clouds last time,sound jumper versatile re ground,nicholls will break his chase hoodoo soon.
G Jesture.....Another with time on his side,big field experience,looks to have been kept for this,will appreciate g/soft or better,has to overcome the poor irish record,priced accordingly,lack of course form worry however his trainer knows all about whats required around here.
Of those heading the betting, Ned Stark has strong claims,lack of big field experience and 4 chase runs only are negatives for me.
GL ALL
The chelt handicap pin has been found after a year of inactivity,now gleaming and ready to go.
Nothing here meets all the criteria,not unusual,settled for 3 at the prices,in order of preference.
Indian Castle.....20/1
Black Thunder......20/1
Grand Jesture......28/1
I Castle...ran a cracker in K Muir as a 6 yr old when with the out of form DM yard,jumping was a concern,watched all his races this season and its much better,course form in big fields,nicely weighted,trainer/jockey combo not high profile,I think he,s overpriced.
B Thunder....going against the stats re weight here,champ trainer had several entered yet relies on this fella,good claimer booked,eyecatching run behind many clouds last time,sound jumper versatile re ground,nicholls will break his chase hoodoo soon.
G Jesture.....Another with time on his side,big field experience,looks to have been kept for this,will appreciate g/soft or better,has to overcome the poor irish record,priced accordingly,lack of course form worry however his trainer knows all about whats required around here.
Of those heading the betting, Ned Stark has strong claims,lack of big field experience and 4 chase runs only are negatives for me.
GL ALL
5-15
Horizontal Speed....16/1
Irish Cavalier....14/1
Plenty guesswork here,as GI points out, very compressed.
Horizontal Speed looks to be improving with each run,settling much better early on in his latest race.Not sure he has gears,hope RJ can get him to the front and set the pace,winding it up down the back.Jumping needs to be brushed up,perfect profile.
I Cavalier ran well behind G Ransom at chelt,not given a hard time,stuck on really well,think he might turn that form around which puts him in the picture,townsend booked,he has a fine record for this stable.
Horizontal Speed....16/1
Irish Cavalier....14/1
Plenty guesswork here,as GI points out, very compressed.
Horizontal Speed looks to be improving with each run,settling much better early on in his latest race.Not sure he has gears,hope RJ can get him to the front and set the pace,winding it up down the back.Jumping needs to be brushed up,perfect profile.
I Cavalier ran well behind G Ransom at chelt,not given a hard time,stuck on really well,think he might turn that form around which puts him in the picture,townsend booked,he has a fine record for this stable.
Interesting that Black Thunder runs, keeps weights down for a few, I quite like him but don't think there's enough juice in the ground, similar thoughts on Mendip Express and a couple others.
I have the following shortlist:
Pendra
Third in a hcp at last years festival, and might have won had he not hit the last, that was off 137, this year hes on 139, so I can see the attraction. he made a few mistakes last year not just the last, oposable at the price and up in trip.
Grand Jesture
I like him and he's my main bet in the race, progressive and his Punchestown form is solid, Id forget his last run over ground which does not suit. He fits a lot of the trends and at 33/1 is worth a pop, only concern would be track, never raced on it before.
Ned Stark
Its very hard not to like him, 4 chases this season, won 3, his only defeat was behind Ptit Zig over a trip too short, he ran well on the course on decent ground.
Lost Legend
Massive price for this race given connections. The one thing that puts me off is the fact he is a summer jumper, they don't win at festival.
Indian Castle
Should not be underestimated. Watched his race from last years festival where he ran well as a 6yo novice, before blundering at the last. He was held at the time, but another year older, stronger and rated 1lb less. You get the feeling this has been his aim all season.
Lamb or Cod
When he got beat by Romford Pele, he should have won (off 144), he was a bit exhuberant and lost valuable momentum at the last. The Romford Pele was bang in form at the time, so a solid effort. Saying all that his last 2 efforts have been poor, maybe the ground is a fair excuse as he must have good ground and he lost a shoe lto. I like his mark and trainer is in form.
Gevery Chambertin
Pipe special? I can see him run a big race, they put him away when he ran well lto to protect his mark, course form puts me off.
Barakilla
He's very interesting and might prove better for the step up in trip, I'd prefer a bit more than 12/1 in a race of this nature.
Dursey Sound
Laid out? JJ/JP @ 50/1....
I have the following shortlist:
Pendra
Third in a hcp at last years festival, and might have won had he not hit the last, that was off 137, this year hes on 139, so I can see the attraction. he made a few mistakes last year not just the last, oposable at the price and up in trip.
Grand Jesture
I like him and he's my main bet in the race, progressive and his Punchestown form is solid, Id forget his last run over ground which does not suit. He fits a lot of the trends and at 33/1 is worth a pop, only concern would be track, never raced on it before.
Ned Stark
Its very hard not to like him, 4 chases this season, won 3, his only defeat was behind Ptit Zig over a trip too short, he ran well on the course on decent ground.
Lost Legend
Massive price for this race given connections. The one thing that puts me off is the fact he is a summer jumper, they don't win at festival.
Indian Castle
Should not be underestimated. Watched his race from last years festival where he ran well as a 6yo novice, before blundering at the last. He was held at the time, but another year older, stronger and rated 1lb less. You get the feeling this has been his aim all season.
Lamb or Cod
When he got beat by Romford Pele, he should have won (off 144), he was a bit exhuberant and lost valuable momentum at the last. The Romford Pele was bang in form at the time, so a solid effort. Saying all that his last 2 efforts have been poor, maybe the ground is a fair excuse as he must have good ground and he lost a shoe lto. I like his mark and trainer is in form.
Gevery Chambertin
Pipe special? I can see him run a big race, they put him away when he ran well lto to protect his mark, course form puts me off.
Barakilla
He's very interesting and might prove better for the step up in trip, I'd prefer a bit more than 12/1 in a race of this nature.
Dursey Sound
Laid out? JJ/JP @ 50/1....
5.15
Rum & Butter appears to be well handicapped, Vivaccio is also interesting me.
Rum & Butter appears to be well handicapped, Vivaccio is also interesting me.
Thats a long shortlist GI!
Looking at the morning tv from course,bright sunshine and breeze,reckon it will be quicker than forecast,holding fire until we see the time of supreme.
Best of luck to all,fantastic days racing to look forward to.
Looking at the morning tv from course,bright sunshine and breeze,reckon it will be quicker than forecast,holding fire until we see the time of supreme.
Best of luck to all,fantastic days racing to look forward to.
aye, it looks like grand jesture and lamb and cod for me, god ground beats
good luck all indeed
good luck all indeed
Day 1
4 out of 5 placed,all at decent odds,irish cavalier getting up close home to land the finale,good start to the handicaps,onwards to day 2.
Well played Stevo and GI,at least GI has the sense to back his e/way,will I ever learn!
4 out of 5 placed,all at decent odds,irish cavalier getting up close home to land the finale,good start to the handicaps,onwards to day 2.
Well played Stevo and GI,at least GI has the sense to back his e/way,will I ever learn!
I play ew a lot I guess, more so at Festival as it's so competative, a fair return on the race.
Coral Cup
I found myself eliminating lots of runners quite quickly in this, mostly the top weights including festival winner Lac Fontana, just couldn't see them winning. Then I stopped and went over last years renewal, and it has a similar feel to this year.
2015 Top rated 158 bottom rated 138 (-20)
2014 Top rated 154 bottom rated 135 (-19)
Compressed to an extent, making it easier for the top weights to perform well. Last year it was Whisper (Nico claimed of him) and GMOOH from those at the top who ran well, Nicky has both 1 & 2 in this years race (both have claimers). He has 6 entries in total! Lac Fontana also has a claimer, so he is on 146 effectively, so does not have to give much weight away to those at the bottom, he has to be considered now given his festival form.
Prior to this rethink I had Baradari and Tagliatelli as my main selections, however I may be reconsidering my bets on this race.
Coral Cup
I found myself eliminating lots of runners quite quickly in this, mostly the top weights including festival winner Lac Fontana, just couldn't see them winning. Then I stopped and went over last years renewal, and it has a similar feel to this year.
2015 Top rated 158 bottom rated 138 (-20)
2014 Top rated 154 bottom rated 135 (-19)
Compressed to an extent, making it easier for the top weights to perform well. Last year it was Whisper (Nico claimed of him) and GMOOH from those at the top who ran well, Nicky has both 1 & 2 in this years race (both have claimers). He has 6 entries in total! Lac Fontana also has a claimer, so he is on 146 effectively, so does not have to give much weight away to those at the bottom, he has to be considered now given his festival form.
Prior to this rethink I had Baradari and Tagliatelli as my main selections, however I may be reconsidering my bets on this race.
Baradari and Lyvius not lot between them on lto run,Lyvius is defo overpriced backed at 40/1 ew,
Baradari 20 e/w.
Baradari 20 e/w.
Coral cup......more plots than gardeners world!
Very salient point GI re weight,I think the top one is there to assist at least one of his other entries.We saw yesterday how previous festival form comes to the fore time and again,the other point on todays race is how few are distance winners.
Baradari....perfect profile,upped lto at ascot,nagging doubts are age,only 5,and whether he can see it out up the hill.
Zabana....hits trends,qualified for pertemps,hit with 144,guaranteed to get the trip,no claimer?, dark horse.
Bears affair.....Is this the one,would normally passover,yet the claim brings him down to feasible mark,the run behind Dawalan is the eyecatcher for me,that horse is graded material,no problems with the distance or going,is he another whisper.
Cracker of handicap,could pick 10 and still not hit the frame.
GL ALL
Very salient point GI re weight,I think the top one is there to assist at least one of his other entries.We saw yesterday how previous festival form comes to the fore time and again,the other point on todays race is how few are distance winners.
Baradari....perfect profile,upped lto at ascot,nagging doubts are age,only 5,and whether he can see it out up the hill.
Zabana....hits trends,qualified for pertemps,hit with 144,guaranteed to get the trip,no claimer?, dark horse.
Bears affair.....Is this the one,would normally passover,yet the claim brings him down to feasible mark,the run behind Dawalan is the eyecatcher for me,that horse is graded material,no problems with the distance or going,is he another whisper.
Cracker of handicap,could pick 10 and still not hit the frame.
GL ALL
Day 2 Update
coral cup....Zabana 33/1 caught on the run-in
,bears affair ran well in 7th,baradari never showed,he is worth watching off current mark.
Fred winter....Bouvreuil 14/1 another 2nd,zarib had his chance coming to the last.
Close but no cigar,on to day 3 where it does not get any easier.
coral cup....Zabana 33/1 caught on the run-in
,bears affair ran well in 7th,baradari never showed,he is worth watching off current mark.Fred winter....Bouvreuil 14/1 another 2nd,zarib had his chance coming to the last.
Close but no cigar,on to day 3 where it does not get any easier.
^ Aye, no easier, Pertempts a normal nightmare, 14lbs cover top and bottom. I'm thinking it might pay to stick with the proven battle hardened types today, I'm not seeing any superstars lurking with a stone in hand. Edeymi could be a blot but price is awful.
My selection at the moment is Trustan Times, who was close last year off 2lb higher, I'm not too bothered about his form this year, think its all about this race, trainer hitting a bit form. 22/1 seems fair. Small stakes and may add another later.
My selection at the moment is Trustan Times, who was close last year off 2lb higher, I'm not too bothered about his form this year, think its all about this race, trainer hitting a bit form. 22/1 seems fair. Small stakes and may add another later.
Festival Plate
I nailed my colours to the mast very early in this with Champion Court, so its disappointing to see no money for him today, especially with stablemate Any Currency running well yesterday. He looks well handicapped, but maybe he has just regressed; who knows, will find out today for sure. If he isn't up in the vanguard immediately then my money is gone.
Monetaire is obviously interesting in this given connections, put away for this after winning lto, only concern would be how he handles this livelier surface. I just can't bring myself to back his sort of prices in a festival hcp.
One I do find very interesting is Rawnaq, whose chase figures this season are 1 4 1, so progressing and his fourth was against some decent sorts giving weight away. Seems to need good ground, and has ran well at the course before. A stiff mark possibly, but 25/1 seems fair and a different line of form completely.
Attaglance could run well on his favourite surface, as could Rajdhani Express, but you have to be concerned with Hendo's form.
I nailed my colours to the mast very early in this with Champion Court, so its disappointing to see no money for him today, especially with stablemate Any Currency running well yesterday. He looks well handicapped, but maybe he has just regressed; who knows, will find out today for sure. If he isn't up in the vanguard immediately then my money is gone.
Monetaire is obviously interesting in this given connections, put away for this after winning lto, only concern would be how he handles this livelier surface. I just can't bring myself to back his sort of prices in a festival hcp.
One I do find very interesting is Rawnaq, whose chase figures this season are 1 4 1, so progressing and his fourth was against some decent sorts giving weight away. Seems to need good ground, and has ran well at the course before. A stiff mark possibly, but 25/1 seems fair and a different line of form completely.
Attaglance could run well on his favourite surface, as could Rajdhani Express, but you have to be concerned with Hendo's form.
Morning GI
Pertemps Final
Compressed handicap which throws out alot of previous trends,as ever looking for horses that can outrun their current mark.
Sybarite....the claim drops him to 10-02,NTD knows how to win this,trip and ground ideal.
Spirit of Shankley....qualified on ground he hated,couple of sighters over 3m,around 65 on here,overpriced.
Run ructions run....eyecatching in qualifier,not sure why they ran him again lto,interesting jockey booked.
I will have a saver on pipes frontrunner,first time blinkers on today,not sure the handicappers got him yet.
GL
Pertemps Final
Compressed handicap which throws out alot of previous trends,as ever looking for horses that can outrun their current mark.
Sybarite....the claim drops him to 10-02,NTD knows how to win this,trip and ground ideal.
Spirit of Shankley....qualified on ground he hated,couple of sighters over 3m,around 65 on here,overpriced.
Run ructions run....eyecatching in qualifier,not sure why they ran him again lto,interesting jockey booked.
I will have a saver on pipes frontrunner,first time blinkers on today,not sure the handicappers got him yet.
GL
4-00
The Mildmay
Running short on time,as usual!
Rawnaq
Bally legend
Hollow penny
With you here GI,think he will love the ground,ran well here before hurdles,inexperience slight negative,if he jumps he can win.
The Mildmay
Running short on time,as usual!
Rawnaq
Bally legend
Hollow penny
With you here GI,think he will love the ground,ran well here before hurdles,inexperience slight negative,if he jumps he can win.
nice to hear, hoping I might get bigger than 25's for Ranwaq. My mate has been shouting at me since decs yesterday about Sybarite, I can see the attraction.
Potentially NTD could have a good day, I think Benbens has an excellent chance in the kim Muir, he's my selection in a very tough handicap to fathom.
good luck
Potentially NTD could have a good day, I think Benbens has an excellent chance in the kim Muir, he's my selection in a very tough handicap to fathom.
good luck
Kim Muir
Benbens
sixty something
grandads horse
Comes out well stats,could argue he wants more cut,positives are he will stay, and this pilot knows him already.
I do like the webber horse,blinkers on today.
One of three devilish handicaps,need a little bit of lady as ever.
Benbens
sixty something
grandads horse
Comes out well stats,could argue he wants more cut,positives are he will stay, and this pilot knows him already.
I do like the webber horse,blinkers on today.
One of three devilish handicaps,need a little bit of lady as ever.
sixty something is a big price, will bear it in mind if I'm flush later in the day!!
Day 3 Update...
Pertemps...nothing placed or close,sybarite spat the dummy out very early
Mildmay...Rawnaq went close at 25/1,the other two finnished 5th/6th
Kim muir...nothing placed,sixty something tipped up 4 out going ok
Just the one winner so far,on to day 4.
Pertemps...nothing placed or close,sybarite spat the dummy out very early
Mildmay...Rawnaq went close at 25/1,the other two finnished 5th/6th
Kim muir...nothing placed,sixty something tipped up 4 out going ok
Just the one winner so far,on to day 4.
unlucky with Sixty Something Noc, good shout. The fall was defo the fault of the jockey, he should have just left him to tip along.
I fancy plenty in the County Hurdle, wide open, just the 12lbs covering top and bottom weight! I'm going to stick a few quid on a couple who I think are silly prices, both handle the course and any further rain won't make much difference.
Ballglasheen @ 80/1
Orgilo Bay @ 40/1
I fancy plenty in the County Hurdle, wide open, just the 12lbs covering top and bottom weight! I'm going to stick a few quid on a couple who I think are silly prices, both handle the course and any further rain won't make much difference.
Ballglasheen @ 80/1
Orgilo Bay @ 40/1
Grand Annual
Grumeti, Blood Cottil, Ned Bunteline, I like all the fancied ones.
My Brother Sylvest, if its not too soft he comes into the picture for me.
Grumeti, Blood Cottil, Ned Bunteline, I like all the fancied ones.
My Brother Sylvest, if its not too soft he comes into the picture for me.
my 2 against the field in the grand annual
FESTIVE AFFAIR 34
GRUMETI 21
FESTIVE AFFAIR 34
GRUMETI 21
That was my fist thought GI,however up to that point he had given it a great ride,think he just chose the wrong fence,caught out many a good jockey,hopefully he will learn from that.Well done again with UXI....bet that was a long run-in for you?
County....Unoriginal here,gone with the trends,lightly raced younger types
Sort it out
Princely conn
Ebony express....only 6 day break,5lb not excessive,very few miles on the clock,canny trainer.
GL
County....Unoriginal here,gone with the trends,lightly raced younger types
Sort it out
Princely conn
Ebony express....only 6 day break,5lb not excessive,very few miles on the clock,canny trainer.
GL
Enjoyed reading your thoughts guys this week, and I normally do better in the handicaps, but didn't want to jinx my chances..........I needn't have worried, no joy other than Thomas Crapper placed Ante-Post price, and pennies on The Package.......it's been carnage 
I'll give it a bash today, as keeping my mouth shut hasn't done me any good.
County Hurdle
I bet The Game Changer 22's to 27's, missing the 33's (I put him on the "dark horse" thread, and he was 33's then)
Cheltenian
Modem
Martin Pipe
Noble Endeavour
Conquisto
Grand Annual
I've bet Eastlake and Grumeti Ante-Post, and I'll also take a chance on My Brother Sylvest.
Very best of luck with your picks.
I'll give it a bash today, as keeping my mouth shut hasn't done me any good.
County Hurdle
I bet The Game Changer 22's to 27's, missing the 33's (I put him on the "dark horse" thread, and he was 33's then
)Cheltenian
Modem
Martin Pipe
Noble Endeavour
Conquisto
Grand Annual
I've bet Eastlake and Grumeti Ante-Post, and I'll also take a chance on My Brother Sylvest.
Very best of luck with your picks.
4-40
all change here as hurdles looks softer than chase course
macnicholson
kauto grand mogul
on tour
GL
all change here as hurdles looks softer than chase course
macnicholson
kauto grand mogul
on tour
GL
Belated Hello to Fabulous/Zealot
I know what you mean re putting your thoughts up Fabulous,hopefully this one was about sharing views on the handicaps,nothing better than seeing someone work them out.All opinions welcomed and encouraged,do not fear I,m with you in the minus camp overall,fantastic week every year.
Day 4 update
county....sort it out 2nd,no chance with winner.
m pipe......kauto grand mogul placed at 33/1,another mullins winner
grand annual......went with 4,none placed,turn over sivola was 5th at 33/1,
One of those weeks where you feel things not quite worked out,but not far off.
On to aintree where battle is joined again.
GL ALL
I know what you mean re putting your thoughts up Fabulous,hopefully this one was about sharing views on the handicaps,nothing better than seeing someone work them out.All opinions welcomed and encouraged,do not fear I,m with you in the minus camp overall,fantastic week every year.
Day 4 update
county....sort it out 2nd,no chance with winner.
m pipe......kauto grand mogul placed at 33/1,another mullins winner
grand annual......went with 4,none placed,turn over sivola was 5th at 33/1
,One of those weeks where you feel things not quite worked out,but not far off.
On to aintree where battle is joined again.
GL ALL
Fabulous
Bad luck with Eastlake. Should have won. And if McCoy had been riding him ( as was rumoured the days before ) it definitely would have imo.
Bad luck with Eastlake. Should have won. And if McCoy had been riding him ( as was rumoured the days before ) it definitely would have imo.
Post Your Reply
Please login to post a reply.
Wonder
Instance ID: 13539