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FELTFAIR
02 Mar 15 16:08
Joined:
Date Joined: 01 Jun 10
| Topic/replies: 8,601 | Blogger: FELTFAIR's blog
First forfeit stage tomorrow. Don`t anticipate anything earth shattering or market moving but as usual the available market is overbroke.
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Report FELTFAIR March 5, 2015 6:51 PM GMT
Over 300 drop out at first forfeit stage, leaving just over 100 still entered.

A O`Brien has over twenty still in and looks to dominate the market again.
Report lingbleed April 6, 2015 5:31 PM BST
i see epicuris was defeated at longchamp today ,not sure if the derby was on the agenda . He traveled well ,and set what looked a descent pace ,before hitting at wall at the furlong pole .he did kept on for second ,the winner wasn't to far from the back silverwave ,and now remains unbeating
Report FELTFAIR April 6, 2015 8:17 PM BST
Not currently entered I believe.
Report FELTFAIR April 11, 2015 8:39 PM BST
Entered now at second entry stage.
Report FELTFAIR April 11, 2015 8:40 PM BST
First chance to look at John F Kennedy tomorrow.
Report Millerracing67 April 12, 2015 3:57 PM BST
Heavy ground 1st time out not ideal, but he looks iffy to me???
Report Fallen Angel April 12, 2015 4:08 PM BST
Ryan Moore didn't look overly hard on him but was an awful effort.
Report FELTFAIR April 20, 2015 2:57 PM BST
Betfair market in disarray. Zawraq current favourite after his win in Ireland but the ground was very bad as was the winning time.Would want to see what happens with him next time out before even thinking about backing him.

The next four weeks will clarify things hopefully.

I backed John F Kennedy at 9 and have layed 5.1 and Old Man River at 11.5 and have layed 8.6 so far.May regret laying the latter but you know it makes sense.

Is this the year when something comes out of the woodwork perhaps from across the pond?

We`ll see.
Report Millerracing67 April 20, 2015 7:14 PM BST
Only played small in the Derby so far, Ol Man River @ 11.0 & 12.0.
Not sure he will get the trip on his dam side, but sire a strong influence on stamina.
Hope he lines up in the 2000gns at Newmarket 1st time up.
Report FELTFAIR April 20, 2015 7:46 PM BST
Camelot the only Montjeu three year old to win a Group 1 over a mile. Think he`ll go a different route but happy if he does go to Newmarket and run well. Not really involved in the Guineas. Might have a minor interest on the day but the Derby holds the key to the success or failure of this flat season for me.
Report Millerracing67 April 21, 2015 6:14 PM BST
Strange betting structure to me if your whole flat season (win/lose) revolves about finding the Derby winner ??? On the bigger scale of things betting wise for me (even if it is the Derby) its just another race i have a bet(s) in, its a long season to make a profit from imo.
Report FELTFAIR April 21, 2015 6:29 PM BST
Like to focus on the colt`s classics for the jackpot and just enjoy all other racing throughout the year but rarely going in with both feet.

It works for me.
Report ffs April 22, 2015 1:11 AM BST
I appreciate Feltfair's leanings - it is the most important race of the year also, so whatever can make it they won't be held.

The market is really directionless, OMR to me is the standout chance on the bare form of his physical appeal and his Beresford win.

JFK completely flopped - he didn't look like a racehorse to me, or that he'd grown an inch over the winter.

For all I'm very happy to see Dermot Weld in the winners' enclosure, Zawraq must be one of the weakest Derby favourites at this time of the year for many, many years.

I suppose all eyes are where/when OMR emerges as he's the one with the potential to dominate the betting
Report marve April 22, 2015 10:34 PM BST
the derby don't produce dodgy results

just look at the history of the winners, all fancied horses
Report FELTFAIR April 23, 2015 9:17 AM BST
Quite right. Also there is tremendous value to be had over the Winter months. Yes it can be high risk but it does represent tremendous trading value if you are careful and lucky with your selections.
Report FELTFAIR May 4, 2015 6:00 PM BST
Aidan o`Brien interview today.

Ol`Man River goes to the Dante,John F Kennedy goes for Derrinstown and Giovanni Canaletto scoped bad and misses the Chester Vase.
Report FELTFAIR May 4, 2015 6:15 PM BST
And Sir Isaac Newton goes to Chester on Wednesday for a maiden.
Report marve May 4, 2015 8:10 PM BST
praying the guineas was a blip and will be forgotten when he bolts up in the dante
Report FELTFAIR May 4, 2015 8:27 PM BST
LaughLaughI`m with you.
Report Spock May 5, 2015 8:53 PM BST
Reiterate a comment made on a seemingly dead post - think Mr Gosden has a great chance with Christophermarlowe.

Am surprised he is going to Lingfield, considering the comments made after his latest Epsom win, but maybe it is a bit of benchmarking by his conx or the horse just needs it...

Great type, and so far his form stands up better than anything else (bar Gleneagles)
Report Paterson92 May 5, 2015 10:41 PM BST
Taken the last of the 12's on Sir Isaac Newton before his Chester appearance tomorrow. Hoping for a visually good performance upped to 10f tomorrow. It seems O'Brien has taken his time with this one.
Report FELTFAIR May 6, 2015 4:55 PM BST
CryCry
Report Steamship May 6, 2015 7:32 PM BST
Looks like the Dante winner will be the favourite I have not backed him yet but Elm Park does look the one to me.
Report FELTFAIR May 6, 2015 7:45 PM BST
It seems the more trials that are run the more confused the Derby picture becomes.

As you say we have the Dante next week,but there is also the Derrinstown on Sunday,the Prix Hocquart in France,the French Guineas and the Irish Guineas that can add mud to the waters.Do they still have the Predominate at Goodwood?
Report FELTFAIR May 6, 2015 7:51 PM BST
Forgot Lingfield Derby trial on Saturday.
Report shevvy May 6, 2015 10:00 PM BST
A potentially interesting addition...

A Royer De Dupre
Karaktar
3 b c High Chaparral - Karawana
Winner of a listed by seven lengths and recent winner of the group 3 Prix Noailles, where he came from off the pace to easily score by three and a half lengths.
"A truly exceptional horse who really stands out. He has such a great action, everything is so fluid, and the day after he won he trotted like he hadn't run the day before. A really interesting horse who at two won on his second start and then had a terrible run in the Group 3 Prix Thomas Bryon. Before that I thought he could have run in the Criterium, but following that third place we decided to just leave it at that for the season. That was probably a good thing, as he really progressed this winter, and has won in heavy ground and on fast ground. He has the option of both the Prix du Jockey Club or the Derby, for which he would have to be supplemented, but that wouldn't be the problem. There shouldn't be any stamina issues, even though on his dam's side there were a lot of sprinters in the third generation, which is why he has so much speed. But this is what makes the Aga Khan families so precious, and is why he has had great champions like Dalakhani and Zarkava, capable of winning over the mile and over the mile and a half. Karaktar is like those."
Report FELTFAIR May 7, 2015 8:56 AM BST
Will watch out for this one.
Report PeteTheBloke May 10, 2015 4:30 PM BST
On Twitter...

Racing Post ‏@RacingPost 11m11 minutes ago

Success Days could be supplemented for the Investec Derby after his runaway victory in today’s Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial
Report FELTFAIR May 10, 2015 5:08 PM BST
Like Zawraq the clock is a major negative for me. Time will tell.
Report metro john May 10, 2015 5:13 PM BST
Looking away from the main suspects, Sherlock Holmes trained by AOB got a great pedigree, not raced yet,but if I was gonna have a token shot in the dark it would be this one.Consort form worked out well, not convinced it would stay but another that promises much if still breathing? They may yet take chance with Gleneagles you never know?
Report FELTFAIR May 22, 2015 4:43 PM BST
Supplementary stage to come but surprised at the small number left in at the 2nd forfeit stage.Pleased to see Epicuris`s name is still in the list. You see that Figgy.
Report FELTFAIR May 26, 2015 8:36 AM BST
Epicuris comes to Epsom. Good news and big chance.
Report FELTFAIR May 26, 2015 8:36 AM BST
If they can get him in the stalls.
Report FELTFAIR May 30, 2015 12:32 PM BST
Confirmation of Entry stage for the Oaks today. If Found is left in the Oaks then I would think it unlikely that they would would go ahead and supplement her for the Derby on Monday. There is always the Prix Diane for her also.

I`m guessing and also hoping she sticks with the Oaks or preferably the French equivalent Sunday June 14th.
Report FELTFAIR May 30, 2015 12:49 PM BST
Confirmed for The Oaks.
Report Paterson92 May 30, 2015 8:43 PM BST
Was that only 5 day stage confirmations? If she's been supplemented for the Derby, we'll find out on Monday. In my opinion, the only way she's not being supplemented for the Derby is if Gleneagles is supplemented. I cannot see Gleneagles being supplemented. Hope I'm wrong though, I've had Found backed for The Oaks for months now.
Report lead on May 31, 2015 5:33 AM BST
Ermm...think you'll find Gleneagles doesn't need to be supplemented...he's in already
Report FELTFAIR May 31, 2015 8:45 AM BST
Correct.
Report HarmonicaPhil May 31, 2015 12:24 PM BST
Will be amazed if Gleneagles runs
Report Figgis May 31, 2015 5:51 PM BST
http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/news/article/465/9871107/derby-momentum-grows-for-gleneagles

Aidan O'Brien, speaking from Chantilly on Sunday, said it was likely the dual Guineas winner would be left in the premier Classic at Monday's confirmation stage.

"I think there is another stage tomorrow and I didn't hear that he was going to be taken out, so I presume he is going to be left in tomorrow - I presume," said the Ballydoyle handler.

Owners Coolmore also have the option of adding the filly Found into the field on Monday.

O'Brien said: "I didn't hear anything about the filly being supplemented in it yet, anyway.
All the colts that are in it, are in it.There is a supplementary stage tomorrow and I didn't hear that the filly would be supplemented."
Report metro john May 31, 2015 6:39 PM BST
Golden Horn looks the one, John Gosden produces the finished article, in Johnny g we trust, Zawrak is the danger and a big one, but maybe too much pace????
Report Sandown May 31, 2015 6:43 PM BST
Weather forecast is for temperatures reaching 29 degrees by next weekend. Likely that the ground will ride fast. This will have an impact on the chances of horses like Elm Park and Jack Hobbs imo.
Report Paterson92 June 1, 2015 2:46 AM BST
My apologies regarding Gleneagles being "supplemented" ... genuinely have no idea why I wrote that, think the word had been stuck in my head after reading about Found before posting. I stand by what I say though, highly doubt Gleneagles will appear and for that reason I think Found will be supplemented. Hope I'm miles away from reality, only time will tell.
Report FELTFAIR June 3, 2015 8:04 AM BST
Topped up on Epicuris just in case the thunderstorms forecast for Friday hit Epsom.
Report sinfin June 3, 2015 1:19 PM BST
feltfair I hope for you it goes in the stalls ok it was very bad last time and its more time this time to get worked up
Report FELTFAIR June 3, 2015 4:38 PM BST
Yes I know but if it doesn`t go in the stalls then I win a little less on all the other runners. If it does go in the stalls I`m in a position to lay some of it as I anticipate the price will drop if he does go in.Thought it was worth the risk.

Here`s hoping.
Report sinfin June 3, 2015 10:01 PM BST
gud luck im on the way down tomorrow night I also think it has big chance if going in
Report FELTFAIR June 4, 2015 9:41 PM BST
Hope he goes in and I can trade but still leave it a nice winner.

Have a good time and good luck.
Report FELTFAIR June 5, 2015 9:40 PM BST
Final score just for Fig and Harry.

The green win profile(see "Jack Hobbs" and this thread for detail)

Pale green = Jack Hobbs
Light green = Giovanni Canaletto
Green = All runners except those above and those below
Bottle green = Golden Horn
British racing green = Epicuris

The green place profile

Green = Epicuris not in frame
Bottle green = Epicuris in the frame

Good luck everybody.
Report Figgis June 5, 2015 9:49 PM BST
Thanks, but I'm not interested in anybody's profit or loss or all green books, just opinions on races and racehorses.
Report FELTFAIR June 6, 2015 5:53 AM BST
There`s no pleasing you.Cry
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