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cryoftruth
14 Feb 15 15:42
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Date Joined: 22 Mar 04
| Topic/replies: 11,180 | Blogger: cryoftruth's blog
Masssive boost for his form from Blue Heron.

Hard to know quite how good Faugheen is but his complete thrashing of Blue Heron look a bit better now.

He looks a dead cert.

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Replies: 27
By:
Howdi
When: 14 Feb 15 22:27
Plain
By:
SoYouThink
When: 14 Feb 15 22:29
Form got a decent boost but Kempton race conditions in December differs to Cheltenham race conditions in March. Last horse to win at both meetings was Menorah. So Faugheen despite looking impressive and the form strengthening has a fair task on his hands to do the double.
By:
asparagus
When: 16 Feb 15 16:41
Faugheen's form didn't get a boost at all. 6 horse race with 2 complete no hopers. That left 4 horses which had all finished behind faugheen so whichever horse wins you can say the form has been boosted. Faugheen has got a very good chance but Saturday's race had no bearing on that at all imo.
By:
timtin
When: 17 Feb 15 10:47
@asparagus if Irving had won bookies would've cut him down to 16/1 or 14/1 with the reasons that he would've got second only few lengths behind Faugheen. At least thats what most of the so called `experts` said prior to the race, that on form Irving should've finished close second even though ALL handicappers had Purple Bay the 2nd rated horse coming into it on 160 official rating(they dropped him 1 pound after the race, don't ask me why..) Therefore the Kingwell did have a bearing because it proved that Irving even on form couldn't beat the 3rd on Christmas Hurdle which most people thought that would have been the case without being pulled up.
By:
IrisDeBalme
When: 17 Feb 15 12:33
Irving couldnt beat Blue Heron... they might take him out of CH ... every horse in the top 6 can beat Blue Heron... I dont think he is a good yardstick really...

To say that Faugheen form is given a boost... is hardly complimentary...

hardly a ripple on the CH market really?
By:
timtin
When: 17 Feb 15 13:38
IrisDeBalme you say that NOW after the events took place, most poeple were saying Irving would've got close second behind Faugheen and if he had beaten Blue Heron the CH market for him would've crashed into 14s. It is a form boost for Purple Bay more than for Faugheen.
By:
IrisDeBalme
When: 17 Feb 15 14:31
I disagree Blue Heron... not a good yardstick ...neither is Purple Bay.... The reason why Faugheen is so short... is that people are mixing potential and hype... Mullins horses just sneeze and they are favourite for races at Cheltenham... and media suggest noone else should turn up!

But if you look at the form of his Neptune win, its actually not that strong... and the subsequent races have been racing with horses that are clearly not CH class... and 5/4 for the race???

Unfortunately, Im quite confident he will get beaten by hardened Champion hurdlers... and next year will be his better chance...

I respect ppl if you want to back him now... but from a form perspective a definite no...
By:
timtin
When: 17 Feb 15 17:18
Maybe you got the Neptune year wrong as 3 proper horses from last year Neptune (Red Sherlock, Ballyalton, Rathvinden) haven't yet made the reappearances. If you read the trainers report they were destroyed by the hell Faugheen has put them through while they tried to keep up with his speed.

No, the form is not weak, especially with couple of group horses in behind over hurdles or chasers now. Its not just another Mullins horse. From a form perspective, Phil Smith head of BHA has come out yesterday on ATR and said Faugheen is the best hurdler around, Timeform envoys and their ratings classify Faugheen as the best hurdler around, so you're wrong again from a form perspective; even when he's facing a dual champion Fly which seems to be in the best form of his career, an unlucky TNO last year in the CH and the current champion Jezki who gives his best only at Chelt, Faugheen odds in the market are truly reflecting his chances of winning this year CH, not next year's when most likely he'll be sent chasing where he should've been this year if Mullins had a better hurdler in the yard.
By:
cryoftruth
When: 17 Feb 15 18:05
I disagree Blue Heron... not a good yardstick ...neither is Purple Bay.... The reason why Faugheen is so short... is that people are mixing potential

Sorry we disagree. Blue Heron ran a decent race against Faugheen at Kempton and everyone said his being as close as he was de valued the form. Then Blue Heron comes out and confirmss the form with Irving by winning a decent race in good style.

Faugheen's Kempton form was franked by Blue Heron.

As for a triumph of hype over substance, Faugheen keeps thrashing everything anyone puts up against him. In spite of winning with a great deal in hand I see that Timeform have him as their top rated hurdler in training and they don't rate horses by assessing hype; they assess form and times.
By:
jasey
When: 17 Feb 15 18:05
Faugheens races have been micky mouse affairs.I find it amazing that people seem to think that Faugheen is going to win without coming off the bridle.The only worthwhile form has been Jezki running the invincible Fly close three times.
By:
Can't Catch Me
When: 17 Feb 15 18:45
The only worthwhile form has been Jezki running the invincible Fly close three times.

I think that's a contradiction in terms. These two running against each other repeatedly isn't really telling us anything. HF is marginally better on soft ground races in air eland, and Jezki will no doubt be better on spring ground in a fast run CH.

I think it's beyond belief to suggest that what Faugheen has done isn't worthwhile form.
By:
timtin
When: 17 Feb 15 19:26
@Can't Catch Me, sometimes when I read opinions on Faugheen is like those bashing him have been away from racing since the last festival and now they're shocked to discover Faugheen's price so low, then they start looking through the form on superficial level without actually watching the races and seeing who he's beating, on what condition he was(on his seasonal debut for example he was 40 KG fatter than on Boxing day so he carried that day 90 pounds more and still beat Blue Fashion easily), the turn of foot he displayed(for example at Punchestown), etc. and then come on here or there and call him hype when in FACT everyone seriously involved in racing who's not been away from it in the last year knows that Faugheen, even though he still has to prove he's the best when he meets them, his form is rock solid and confirmed with all handicapers.
By:
jasey
When: 17 Feb 15 20:11
Timtim you must be going in full bank then
By:
timtin
When: 17 Feb 15 21:19
this isn't poker, this is investment, not going full bank, its more than money with these rare beasts..
By:
timtin
When: 17 Feb 15 21:20
I can't imagine how the owners, trainers, connections feel like when one of them confirms his status as a top class horse, I can only dream...
By:
IrisDeBalme
When: 17 Feb 15 21:46
...Faugheen's Kempton form was franked by Blue Heron...

what collateral form do you have that Faugheen will beat The New One...Jezki ... Hurricane... ah yes ... Blue Heron... puzzle solved! Yep horse is a machine.
By:
IrisDeBalme
When: 17 Feb 15 22:10
P.S.  Hurricane and Jezki is worthwhile form as we know Hurricane retains his ability ( on soft/heavy - was 16s early season now 8s) ... and Jezki is the Champion... and probably needs side of good... based on there meetings this season...

but it is a good yardstick as they have raced most CH contenders.... bar Faugheen. Prices realistically assess their chances!
By:
cryoftruth
When: 19 Feb 15 18:33
Faugheen has so far beaten about 90 horses at trips from 2 to 3 miles of going ranging from heavy to good by a rough total of 80 lengths very easily indeed.

He has now won 3 grade 1's and a grade 2 and 3 and won at 2 championship festivals.

Faugheen has 9 times looked like a championship and form and times confirm this impression. The best and most experienced ratings agency has him top rated whilst predicting significant improvement still to come.

Sooner or later when something that looks like a duck, waddles, swims, quacks and tastes good with orange sauce, you are obliged to conclude that It is, in fact, a duck.

Only Cheltenham without key fallers or injuries will tell us but Faugheen, if not a champion, is doing a damned good impresssion of one.
By:
mepoor
When: 02 Mar 15 00:29
good post but it is time that will tell, I personally agree with irisdebalme he does have to improve, in his last races he looked like super star  but the new one would have been there with him and with just as much in hand at last, so the question is can faugeen run faster early on to get true champion horses at it, and will he jump as well running faster, because he does need to improve or show that he can quicken after running solid pace, I deff thing the new one is the value bet  on this years form.
By:
marychain1
When: 02 Mar 15 11:06
Be a first if a duck won any race at the Festival, never mind the Champion Hurdle
By:
Arklearkle
When: 02 Mar 15 12:47
Chapoturgeon won at the festival and even though he wasnt a duck he really was good at it!
By:
IrisDeBalme
When: 10 Mar 15 22:08
Yep - you guys were right horse was a machine ...well done

Hometeam were disappointing.
By:
nocturnal
When: 11 Mar 15 00:17
Sooner or later when something that looks like a duck, waddles, swims, quacks and tastes good with orange sauce, you are obliged to conclude that It is, in fact, a duck.

Only Cheltenham without key fallers or injuries will tell us but Faugheen, if not a champion, is doing a damned good impresssion of one.

Quality stuff cryoftruth

Well played backers,he was the real deal.
By:
deepingfox
When: 11 Mar 15 07:48
Faugheen is doing this way earlier in his racing career than Istabraq  and Hurricane Fly too, both of whom had lots of runs on the flat before having at least 10 career starts over hurdles before winning the Champion.

Therefore he has so few miles on the clock, that his massive stride could take him to a 2nd and 3rd title, in the equivalent number of racecourse starts it Istabraq and Hurricane Fly had, before they won their first.
By:
cryoftruth
When: 11 Mar 15 11:23
Thanks for those kind words Nocturnal.

It was a hollow win in some ways though as Jezki and definitely The New One did not turn up. I was worried that The New One might not be physically right when he ran at Haydock with his severe jumping out to the right. He may need some serious veterinary work to get him back to his very best.

My day, like so many others I know was rather compromised by the last hurdle fall of Annie Power. I had the 4 timer and even before the race had Annie as home and hosed. It was really quite unreal when she fell at the last. She was going to win by 20 lengths.

Funny I think the only hurdler in training that can beat Faugheen is Annie Power (although Douvan fans would perhaps argue).

The way she was thrashing that lot yesterday makes me convinced she is a very very serious horse. I hope she is allowed to contest a top 2 miler soon.
By:
mange
When: 11 Mar 15 11:55
Champ Hdl normally a relentless pace start to finish and  any horse that can produce anything up the hill wins i.e. TNO...........Clever from Ruby to step it up when he did getting TNO off the bridle only to run on again far too late..........run at a slow time dident help a few...........I thought that hed try to burn em off hopeing that hed done that by the time of the hill..........falsely run race.......having said that........... it might well av won anyway..........G.L.
By:
cryoftruth
When: 25 Mar 15 21:16
From the racing post.

I knew he wasn't right. Who knows. he might have beaten Faugheen had he not been injured; I personally doubt it but he was probably not right at haydock to jump out to the right like he did.

THE NEW ONE was ruled out of the Crabbie's Grand National meeting on Wednesday and will not run again this season after Britain's leading hurdler was found to have kissing spines.

The problem was revealed after a bone scan conducted on the Nigel Twiston-Davies-trained horse in the wake of his disappointing performance in the Champion Hurdle in which he finished fifth of eight, nearly nine lengths behind the winner Faugheen.

Kissing spines is a condition where sections of the bone attached to the vertebrae are too close together leaving the horse feeling consistent, low-grade pain.

Twiston-Davies hopes the result explains the below par effort of his stable star, who had finished an unlucky third in the same race the previous year.

Twiston-Davies said: "The New One won't be going to Aintree. We were slightly disappointed with his run at Cheltenham so he went for a bone scan. He has some kissing spines in his back but they think they can help. We could patch him up and go but the obvious thing is to wait until next season.
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