Horse Antepost
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A certain firm who's name includes the number of days in year are betting on the QMCC non runner no bet and best odds guaranteed.
Sprinter Sacre is 7/4.
The way I see it, he's a highly strung horse who's always likely to get himself fairly fit, so if he's over his problems and still the same horse, he will win the Clarence House doing cartwheels and go odds on for Cheltenham. If he's not the horse he was, he'll probably pull up on Saturday and be retired.
The only way he can line up in the QM and start 7/4 or bigger is if he has a close race with DB, and looks healthy but maybe not as good. That may lead to "he may as well take his chance" and then he could be a bit bigger. So worst case is you have an SP bet you might not really want, and it wouldn't cost much to trade out of your position if you want to get rid.
Unless I'm missing something, this is pretty much free money. Certainly it seems like a better option than backing him on Saturday, because if he wins on Saturday you immediately have a risk free bet in the QM, and if he looks his old self you have 7-4 on probably a 1-4 chance. Whereas if he flops, he doesn't run at Cheltenham and you get a refund.
Any thoughts?
Sprinter Sacre is 7/4.
The way I see it, he's a highly strung horse who's always likely to get himself fairly fit, so if he's over his problems and still the same horse, he will win the Clarence House doing cartwheels and go odds on for Cheltenham. If he's not the horse he was, he'll probably pull up on Saturday and be retired.
The only way he can line up in the QM and start 7/4 or bigger is if he has a close race with DB, and looks healthy but maybe not as good. That may lead to "he may as well take his chance" and then he could be a bit bigger. So worst case is you have an SP bet you might not really want, and it wouldn't cost much to trade out of your position if you want to get rid.
Unless I'm missing something, this is pretty much free money. Certainly it seems like a better option than backing him on Saturday, because if he wins on Saturday you immediately have a risk free bet in the QM, and if he looks his old self you have 7-4 on probably a 1-4 chance. Whereas if he flops, he doesn't run at Cheltenham and you get a refund.
Any thoughts?
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from a betting perspective I prefer if he needed the run...
if he comes 2nd they may drift him - which is better with any 7/4 the more ponderables the better for a race like this... so bookies/punters are presented with so many ifs and buts... as we have seen in the last few days... and prices are better... but if you think he wins doing cartwheels - then take the 7/4 .. I would of 2 years ago... |
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If it was 2 years ago he wouldn't be 7-4, more like 1-4. I think if he wins at all he will shorten. If he wins well he will shorted a lot.
If he's the horse he was, he won't exert himself enough to blow up. |
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The time to do him NRNB was when Betfair Sportsbook were 11/4. The arguments were the same, but the price was
a good bit bigger. Someone on here flagged it up but I can't remember who. I didn't bet it. |
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Indeed. But if you're thinking of taking 2-1 all in now, I'd still say 7-4 NRNB is a better option.
A month ago, for all we knew, there was the risk he might go straight to Cheltenham, which would make a mess of this strategy. |
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3/1 now Barry. NRNB would have been good if it were BOG.
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3/1 now Barry. NRNB would have been good if it were BOG.
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I'm still not convinced he'll make it to Cheltenham, despite a perfectly fine run. My concern was Hendersons facial expressions as he was watching the race. I got the feeling he was disappointed. And his post race comments were upbeat despite looking like he was about to burst into tears. Think he was expecting a little more.
The nrnb scenario makes sense, as if he does make it to Cheltenham, all the media hype will shorten his price on the day, 5/4 ish, time to lay off. |
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It was BOG Sintonian - still is, and at 5/2 now. I agree completely with bwonky. Can't see him running and starting 5/2 or bigger.
But he didn't look as good to me. Maybe they have been soft on him, and he was exceptionally tenderly handled in the race. He should improve, but I doubt he will improve the 20lbs+ he would need to to be back to his very best. I think he'll improve more than he was beaten by, but DB will probably improve again too, and SDG might have beaten both of them if he'd run on Saturday - but is less likely to do so on typical festival ground. Dodging Bullets looks progressive and a proper QM horse to me now. Better ground will suit him better, and he should enjoy Cheltenham. It looks a very good race now. |
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I am a huge DB
 fan and backed him at 12s but i am not sure he is at his best at Cheltenham 12s a price to find out, 5/1 or shorter no thanks |
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Good after-timing
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