Clarence House Chase - DODGING Bullets 11/4

I'd take Somersby over Dodging Bullets, Somersby loves Ascot.

I'll be going to this to see the big black airplane. If he is withing 20lbs of the old Sprinter he'll win.

Looks a pure guess up as to what might happen in this race. Everything revolves around SS. I guess you can say DD will mean it's no cakewalk, ofsorts, as at least he'll get to within 10 lengths of SS if SS is at his best.

Screams of a no bet, just watch race imo.

You jest Sint. Dodging Bullets wouldn't get within 20l of Sprinter if Sprinter was at his best.

yes true, 10 lengths was being kind. At least he will push SS to the point he'll have to be pretty fit etc.

can see all the Irish horses staying at home and there only being 4 or 5 runners, Henderson would presumably be happy if that occurred.

I do think Somersby is improving last 2 runs... yes this may be his gold cup... but I felt Dodging Bullets did have the measure of him last time out... and considering the form of Nicholls string ... you would probably put DB in front..

As for Sprinter Sacre... we dont know which horse will turn up... he may win by 20 or he may need the run... or he may wait for the Game Spirit ...

"...Asked if missing Ascot could mean re-routing to the Game Spirit Chase at Newbury on February 7, the intended target for current champion chaser Sire De Grugy, Henderson said: "I don't think the opposition is important as you are going to come up against good horses wherever you go, and it sounds like Dodging Bullets will be going to Ascot...."

so many ponderables with that horse... id back anything except him at this stage... (just my opinion)

baldy laying 5/2 bullets or 9/2 somersby ew 3 places. looks like 2 great plays.

I can't see Sprinter Sacre running with all the rain about so Somersby e/w @ 11/2 looks a cracking bet with only 3-5 runners.

Loves the track and ground and running well enough this season - though I do remember saying all the same things and lumping on e/w last year and he fell.

Was thinking of backing Somersby and then laying off the bet if Sprinter runs.

The only reason to have a bet in this is if you think SS isn't turning up.

Quite so.

Clerk of course believes it'll be soft after the rain wednesday into thursday as it's good to soft now.

Twinlights runs.. all thats left now is see what Henderson decides with SS...

Market is always the key to hendos runners more than any other trainer i feel. Can't see him turning up judging on how quickly anything appearing at 3.3+ is being laid

Henderson to make late call on Sacre Ascot run

BY JON LEES 2:20PM 14 JAN 2015

NICKY HENDERSON will make a last minute decision over Sprinter Sacre's participation at Ascot on Saturday with doubts around the nine-year-old's participation resulting in him being deposed as favourite.

The trainer has admitted that he is "a bit nervous" about the weekend but added he remains keen to give the former champion his first start in 13 months in the Grade 1 Sodexo Clarence House Chase.

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However, Sprinter Sacre will not be committed to the race until his trainer is confident ground conditions are suitable.
Sprinter Sacre missed the whole of 2014 as a consequence of the irregular heartbeat he was found to be suffering from when pulled up in the 2013 Desert Orchid Chase at Kempton and connections do not want to bring him back in very testing going.

Henderson said: "We'll have to leave it until the last possible moment. I'd like to leave it until Saturday morning.

"We have to declare on Thursday morning, which is a bore, as it doesn't give us the luxury of seeing what the weather is going to do on Thursday and Friday.

"I'm desperately keen to try and run him this weekend, I must admit, but the forecast at the moment is horrific and we're just starting to get a bit nervous about it."

Paddy Power replaced Sprinter Sacre as favourite for the Ascot Grade 1 on Wednesday, with Dodging Bullets now 13-8 market leader, while Sprinter Sacre is now 15-8 (from 7-4).

Sprinter Sacre has the Game Spirit Chase at Newbury on February 7 as an alternative but Henderson recognises ground conditions may be no different as he prepares the horse for the Queen Mother Champion Chase.

"You could say you'd wait for the Game Spirit, but what are the chances of getting better ground?" the trainer told BetRacingNation TV.

"This weather isn't going to be any better next week, or the week after, and the Game Spirit is at the beginning of February.

"I think he's got to have a race to give himself the belief that everything is 100 per cent. With his work at home, I'm sure it is."


Last price matched on here 4.5 hmm

Tracked leader 3rd, challenged 6th, led next, came easily clear after 3 out, impressive (tchd 1-4, tchd 2-7 in a place)

Sorry, that was what happened the last time SS raced on heavy ground (in a grade 1, at Cheltenham). Somersby 17l behind. Yes, can see why they are so worried about it. I'd love to ask NH exactly what he means by not wanting to "risk him" in very soft ground. Is he worried he might trample mud into his horsebox perhaps? Or that he might need a wash afterwards? He's a ******g horse ffs, he's perfectly waterproof.

Yes but was that after 13 months off and a heart problem? The drift tells you all you need to know, the 11/4 on DB looking good so far.

No Paterson, it wasn't, and I'm not saying he's a certainty if he runs, he may or may not have properly recovered from whatever it was and no-one will truly know until he races. What I'm saying is, the ground doesn't make any difference to him, and shouldn't be a factor in the decision.

Only 10mm overnight and ground still soft this morning, so looks like NH won't have that excuse now!

6/4 Sprinter at Freds now declared so NRNB.  Will do for me.

what a funny market... Dodging Bullets now 5/2 SS evens...

never seen such undecisive pricing in the last few days...

think there will be more drama to come...

still have faith in Dodging though...

a lovely ploy by the bookmakers to get dodging bullets in the book for this race at the short prices...worked an absolute treat

well I suppose people were playing on the view that SS wont turn up so would look good with 11/4 with DB... (that was my strategy)

Clear Henderson has the power play here... with punters and bookies weighing up his clues...

but 1-0 to bookies there...

Now Henderson to try to win it? hopefully it rains lol...

Sprinter 5/4 on the sportsbook on here, being laid at evens on the exchange. I've exhausted my cards so help yourselves.

nothing wrong with the 11/4 strategy iris de balme because that is the price he should be on the day...nothing wrong there at all

my point was he was 6/4 - 5/4 yesterday and people were taking that price

they probably didn't take a penny on sacre and now have a full book on dodging...sprinters form on soft was never in doubt either a lovely coup

Dodging Bullets 3/1 (antepost can be fun) ...

If they are to beat SS need to really go for it... and make it a real test of speed... push as I think SS connections dont want a battle...

May be the only chance to beat SS if fit... wont be a second.

well done iris de balme just kept finding and at a good price

why fehily isn't stable jockey for nicholls defies belief

7/2

Great shout Iris. PN really is a trainer... He has improved that horse out of sight.

Duplicated what he did at Sandown with Sam Twiston Davies up who like Fehily, if the horse is good enough, he will deliver.

Much improved horse this year the winner.
Gd 1st run back for Sprinter, hopefully all is well with him between now & Chelts.
Would fancy him to reverse the form.
Hope to Sire back on track soon as well, will make the Champion Ch a race to saver
Well done with your play I D B Thou i bet your were hoping not 2 see Sprinter line up 2day.

Very fast time on today`s ground and best horse on the day.

Well done Iris

do you rate twiston davies on the same level as fehily then feltfair???

Yes.

good stuff

Overall I don`t compare jockeys and the jockey is not a consideration for me when I back a horse. As you almost certainly know my god is the clock.

I have the utmost respect for all jockeys and accept that some are a bit special(Ryan Moore for instance)but the jockey is never the deciding factor for me when having a bet.

Incidentally the clock horse today was in fact Dodging Bullets based on his time against Western Warhorse last year at Cheltenham. Having said that Sprinter Sacre at his best has never been extended and has not had to beat the clock to win. Today was his best ever performance against the clock and he can clearly topple his opponent at Cheltenham but I don`t think it will be a cakewalk.

personally feltfair i don't in regards jockeys unless they feck it up like saunders did on a ride at lingfield today...anyway i still believe fehily to be the better horseman and riding at the top of his game and has also done this for a while...twiston davies is one dimensional in his riding imo...yes he is ok but fehily is bar far the better rider imo

Noel Fehily was an under rated jockey for years when riding for Charlie Mann and has so much more experience at the top level than Sam TD. Sam is getting better all the time though. I thought the ride of the day yesterday was Daryl Jacob on Kings Lad. Outpaced before the last bend but kept pushing to keep in touch and then pounced when the first 2 got tired. Both he and Fehily were good in the mares race as well.

Think there was so much hype around Sprinter Sacre....professional pundits saying he is unbeatable and opposition not in the same league...etc.. Bit annoying around hype of media always looking for that fairy tale story....It was obvious the horse was vulnerable... And how Dodging Bullets got to 7/2.is beyond me... I thought 11/4 was generous!

I feel sorry for those that backed dodging at 6/4 .. ...

As for Sprinter Sacre... Will he win the CC if he turns up on better ground . Erm I think he will - he so needed the run... There were glimpses of the old SS - But 3/1 still skinny... Not sure Cheltenham plays towards Dodging bullets strengths... There is also Sire de grungy to consider -so great we have a vibrant market for CC!

WD on the winner.

I was also right with no point in getting involved antepost unless SS didn't show up though.

Was quite impressed with the way the winner stayed to be fair. Looked better at the end than at any other stage. Agree SS the one to take out of the race. I'd take 3/1 on the day for sure but not antepost.