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Interesting Nicholls has only declared one runner... Hope he will turn up and with 11-8 expect a claimer on board. Has some real decent form last season, but doesnt seem to have sparkled this season in graded company. Now back in listed company cant help thinking he will defy his odds.
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Already in my shortlist for the race. Thinking Sean Bowen will be aboard. Nicholls had hoped he'd be a World Hurdle horse this season, so should have stamina and class to win this if he has Sean on, who is a fantastic young jock.
i quite like hello george for this.
not beaten far by jollyann despite making mistakes, then beaten again when odds-on over 2m by robinsfirth who franked the form at cheltenham behind thomas brown.
looks crying for a step-up in trip, very workable mark of 128. 8/1 a good bet imo.
not beaten far by jollyann despite making mistakes, then beaten again when odds-on over 2m by robinsfirth who franked the form at cheltenham behind thomas brown.
looks crying for a step-up in trip, very workable mark of 128. 8/1 a good bet imo.
Lac Fontana won a handicap off 130 at the start of last season. I know PFN has always rated him and he progressed a lot but if he wins this off 151, even with the claim, i'd be stunned. That said, i've not looked at the race in detail.
That's not true like. He did win one half way through the season off 127 though... and then the County at the festival off 139 though.
With bowen taking off 5lb he'd effectively be off 146 here. Every reason to believe he ought to be competitive off of that mark but last time out was an absolute shocker.
Warrantor one of very few who are actually unexposed and could be well ahead of his mark.
With bowen taking off 5lb he'd effectively be off 146 here. Every reason to believe he ought to be competitive off of that mark but last time out was an absolute shocker.
Warrantor one of very few who are actually unexposed and could be well ahead of his mark.
Saphr Du Rheu hacked up last year off top weight. If you forgive Lac Fontana his last run, his form reads very well. Look at the quality of horses he was finishing in around and beating. Sean Bowen is a superb jock so claiming 5lbs off gives him a big edge here. He's a grade 1 winning hurdler after all. Splash of Ginge is rated in the 150's over fences and he had him behind.
Dawalan if he has some bloody headgear on has a big chance. I see Geraghty Jocked up.
16/1 & 9/1 seems good prices to me. I'll take those
Dawalan if he has some bloody headgear on has a big chance. I see Geraghty Jocked up.
16/1 & 9/1 seems good prices to me. I'll take those
CV Not sure Dawalan will go on ground which looks likely to be very soft. Lac Fontana defo worth interest with Bowen on at 14s.
Charlie Longsdon is weighing up whether to run topweight Kilcooley in the William Hill Lanzarote Hurdle at Kempton on Saturday, and said on his website: "It will depend on what rain comes in the next 24 hours."
ah just read this...am surprised people want to bet without knowing whether he was a runner or not
ah just read this...am surprised people want to bet without knowing whether he was a runner or not
Sean Bowen off to hospital... suspected shoulder injury - fingers crossed he is ok - or there goes the chance of Lac Fontana even turning up...
Stevo I'd still follow Dawalan for next 3 starts (backed him on all starts this season) so he can have a score of my cash until he gets up to the high 140s. Coral Cup next if he loses here I'd imagine. I think he is a 150 horse and improvement from headgreat will be significant. IF he has some on here then I'll be happy. But whenever he has it on will improve him. If I owned him I'd wait till Cheltenham for headgear.
Really struggling to see how he's well-handicapped tbh but that's the name of the game.
SDR was an unexposed 5yo when he won and came into the race in form. No comparison in his profile at all.
Dawalan or Lac Fontana are you talking about Sint? Re: well handicapped?
young Bowen was booked to ride Dark Glacier for his dad in the Classic Chase at Warwick before his injury - I doubt he could have ridden both because there's only 55 minutes between the 2 races.
Looking through the Lanzarote 5 day decs, there's no AP or Jonjo representative and AP partnered Lac Fontana when he won the Grade 1 at Aintree in the Spring, he'd probably have the option of riding Bordoni for Ferguson and perhaps one or two of the others but it's not the biggest stretch to see Lac Fontana being declared with AP riding.
STD down to ride Hawkes Point in Warwick race, Fehily and Schofield other obvious options I s'pose but Fehily likely to be on Kilcooley for Longsdon and although Schofield rode him at Ascot on his penultimate outing, I believe AP was still out injured then - plus Schofield partnered the lesser fancied Un Ace for Kim Bailey when Lac Fontana won at Aintree.
Perhaps I'm over analysing but it looks a strong possibility to me.
Looking through the Lanzarote 5 day decs, there's no AP or Jonjo representative and AP partnered Lac Fontana when he won the Grade 1 at Aintree in the Spring, he'd probably have the option of riding Bordoni for Ferguson and perhaps one or two of the others but it's not the biggest stretch to see Lac Fontana being declared with AP riding.
STD down to ride Hawkes Point in Warwick race, Fehily and Schofield other obvious options I s'pose but Fehily likely to be on Kilcooley for Longsdon and although Schofield rode him at Ascot on his penultimate outing, I believe AP was still out injured then - plus Schofield partnered the lesser fancied Un Ace for Kim Bailey when Lac Fontana won at Aintree.
Perhaps I'm over analysing but it looks a strong possibility to me.
chatlie Deutsch will ride kilcooley not surprising considering the handicapper put him up 18lbs for his haydock romp
yep, and McCoy goes to Wetherby where he has a full book of rides for 7 different trainers, so much for my powers of deduction...
Dell Arca at 12/1 for me, good form in Betfair and Coral last season, if forget lto would be almost Fav for this?
Tea For Two for me, looks a superb ew but i expect it to win.
Given Geraghty was jocked up on Dawalan you'd imagine it was ground why he's n/r
My two
Heath Hunter – He has first time blinkers and a good claimer aboard. He’ll strip fitter for his run where he ran well but fitness told and faded on run in.
Shotavodka – He’s well treated off 138 which is 10lbs lower than his highest chase mark. Fehily is a strong booking and the cheekpieces will hopefully help him too. His best form has been on soft ground
Heath Hunter – He has first time blinkers and a good claimer aboard. He’ll strip fitter for his run where he ran well but fitness told and faded on run in.
Shotavodka – He’s well treated off 138 which is 10lbs lower than his highest chase mark. Fehily is a strong booking and the cheekpieces will hopefully help him too. His best form has been on soft ground
Quite like the Shotavodka selection back over hurdles, but it's not easy working out which of the Pipe runners will go well, a case can be made for all three.
I'd be surprised if one of the unexposed novices does not take this, they are all promising. I do like Hello George who will appreciate the step up in trip, he did well to finish where he did last time. I'm probably leaning towards Warrantor, plenty of those behind him in his last two races have come out and won, he could make a joke of his mark I feel. trainer very bullish in a stable tour a while back, especially about him stepping him up in trip and wanting soft ground, 6/1 is fair I think and I have a feeling he might be pricewise selection.
Hammersly Lake on the other had has quite a high mark, but is still unexposed. Tea For Two will be running with a featherweight of 9.12, but I'm not convinced yet about the jockey.
I'd be surprised if one of the unexposed novices does not take this, they are all promising. I do like Hello George who will appreciate the step up in trip, he did well to finish where he did last time. I'm probably leaning towards Warrantor, plenty of those behind him in his last two races have come out and won, he could make a joke of his mark I feel. trainer very bullish in a stable tour a while back, especially about him stepping him up in trip and wanting soft ground, 6/1 is fair I think and I have a feeling he might be pricewise selection.
Hammersly Lake on the other had has quite a high mark, but is still unexposed. Tea For Two will be running with a featherweight of 9.12, but I'm not convinced yet about the jockey.
I was hoping Shotavodka would go under the radar and I'd get some crazy price here on befair before the off, but saw he was tipped on sportinglife so had to go in now for fear of his price coming in
aye, your other selection has been tipped as well by pricewise, hopefully your on that one too, he's gone for Hello George as well.
Aye I backed all my horses before I left work and updated my blog
http://jumpsadviser.com/blog/
I've also gone for Ardkilly Witness at Kempton, Alisier D'Irelande too worth a go at his price given Roger Brookhouse paid £300,000 for him and he's held in very high regard by Hobbs
I'm also thinking of giving Mosspark a chance at 8/1 in handicap company with cheek pieces on.
http://jumpsadviser.com/blog/
I've also gone for Ardkilly Witness at Kempton, Alisier D'Irelande too worth a go at his price given Roger Brookhouse paid £300,000 for him and he's held in very high regard by Hobbs
I'm also thinking of giving Mosspark a chance at 8/1 in handicap company with cheek pieces on.
Expecting Dell Arca to run very well here. Possibly one to lay ir these days though.
As I said earlier in the thread; Warrantor is the standout of the unexposed ones to my mind.
As I said earlier in the thread; Warrantor is the standout of the unexposed ones to my mind.
Hope you right Benjy re Dell Arca weakest race he been in for while.
My worry with Dell Arca is if Scu feels his chance is gone he'll "fade" and then end up dropped 3lbs and run back in the Coral Cup off 142. I've noticed this with a lot of the horses Scu rides, you think he's picked them as he thinks they've the best chance but if he feels the chance is probably gone he'll make sure they at least get a few lbs off.
He's certainly good enough to win off this mark though.
He's certainly good enough to win off this mark though.
really keen on warrantor here very progressive so far over hurdles
lots of horses the wrong price - i can see you getting bigger prices on the one paced saffron waldon in the run, i can see the angle on heath hunter but he is deplorable value i put him in at 16-1...just not that keen on hello george although a step up in trip will probably suit i just can't get an angle on him or the ladbroke at this stage, tea for 2 trained by a master is interesting but am with gi mac in regards rider but more worries are in the horses actual ability, he is the one i have struggled to evaluate, more because of the wigwam horse but you still have to respect the trainer who would of plotted him for this after his course win
hammersly lake is also interesting in this as he was blatantly outpaced last time and a trip looks like what he wants, he got 5lbs for the privilege for that effort which isn't ideal and makes it tougher for him but he still promises to be a nice horse
i was very keen on del arca for this earlier in the week but wanted some headgear plus a slight drop in the weights would of been preferable...he still has his chance but i have regrettably passed him over just for a saver because of the concerns
the rag foxcub is a sick price considering his bangor romp and is a good jumper...he hit one hard in the ladbroke and his rider soon gave up the ghost...he may just not quite get home but isn't a 80 poke although his rider isn't good imo but i like this horse and they will continue to have fun with him although his mark doesn't give them much to work with
anyway i like warrantor and have saved on a few but hello george, saffron wells, heath hunter and the other pipe runner will be poor result
tricky lanzarote as always
lots of horses the wrong price - i can see you getting bigger prices on the one paced saffron waldon in the run, i can see the angle on heath hunter but he is deplorable value i put him in at 16-1...just not that keen on hello george although a step up in trip will probably suit i just can't get an angle on him or the ladbroke at this stage, tea for 2 trained by a master is interesting but am with gi mac in regards rider but more worries are in the horses actual ability, he is the one i have struggled to evaluate, more because of the wigwam horse but you still have to respect the trainer who would of plotted him for this after his course win
hammersly lake is also interesting in this as he was blatantly outpaced last time and a trip looks like what he wants, he got 5lbs for the privilege for that effort which isn't ideal and makes it tougher for him but he still promises to be a nice horse
i was very keen on del arca for this earlier in the week but wanted some headgear plus a slight drop in the weights would of been preferable...he still has his chance but i have regrettably passed him over just for a saver because of the concerns
the rag foxcub is a sick price considering his bangor romp and is a good jumper...he hit one hard in the ladbroke and his rider soon gave up the ghost...he may just not quite get home but isn't a 80 poke although his rider isn't good imo but i like this horse and they will continue to have fun with him although his mark doesn't give them much to work with
anyway i like warrantor and have saved on a few but hello george, saffron wells, heath hunter and the other pipe runner will be poor result
tricky lanzarote as always
While he may well look after him if beaten I've no doubt they will be trying to win this in the first instance. It's a reasonable pot for a more than winnable race. The Coral Cup will be considerably more competitive for about 20k more.
Suprised Nicholls doesnt have a runner... and even more disappointed with Lac fontana not turning up...
back to the drawing board for me!
back to the drawing board for me!
I was talking about Lac Fontana. Looked a poor price at 14/1
Had a win bet on Warrantor for the obvious reasons, looks very progressive. And had an eachway bet on Saffron Wells as his form figs over hurdles on Soft or Heavy are 2132 whilst 243 with Good in the description. 6/1 & 12/1.
Does your blog reflect Dawalan and Lac Fontana bets CV?
I don't post antepost bets there Sint, I post the best prices available the day before the race for anything I've taken antepost and track the p&l of the prices posted on my blog. Blog is there for my mates to follow my bets so now I'm posting all of them at once on a Fri and telling them when it's updated. The time of the post is there if you hover over the date so prices can be checked back to oddschecker.
Originally I was trying to maintain the Betting Advice and Blog section as a way to let me tip horses I really fancied for a Saturday and allow myself to bet away on 10 horses on a Saturday and track it in the blog. This layout just confused my mates tbh. But from my analysis I have just decided that the shorter priced horses just need to end basically, which just reduces the number of available bets on a weekend. So the blog is now weekend tipping basically.
I've done very little antepost in weekend races this season so the materiality to me is insignificant. Also the odd time I'll back something before the off on betfair when a price looks too big but I just don't track that on my site at all as it's impossible. But again it's really immaterial, my p&l is almost exactly the same as my blogs p&l.
I've no idea what to do for Cheltenham. I always book build prior to the festival so it's impossible to post everything on my site as the method involves laying off horses I don't want to be on closer to the day. I'll just keep Cheltenham to myself bar the handicaps I'd say.
Got any pointers or feedback on ways I can improve the site? My mates told me to join the bettingtools with jumpsadviser as the name and slap in bets there. I was thinking of joining the thread on here too. Think structure to betting is a way to improve. Hence my Friday picking for saturday races.
Originally I was trying to maintain the Betting Advice and Blog section as a way to let me tip horses I really fancied for a Saturday and allow myself to bet away on 10 horses on a Saturday and track it in the blog. This layout just confused my mates tbh. But from my analysis I have just decided that the shorter priced horses just need to end basically, which just reduces the number of available bets on a weekend. So the blog is now weekend tipping basically.
I've done very little antepost in weekend races this season so the materiality to me is insignificant. Also the odd time I'll back something before the off on betfair when a price looks too big but I just don't track that on my site at all as it's impossible. But again it's really immaterial, my p&l is almost exactly the same as my blogs p&l.
I've no idea what to do for Cheltenham. I always book build prior to the festival so it's impossible to post everything on my site as the method involves laying off horses I don't want to be on closer to the day. I'll just keep Cheltenham to myself bar the handicaps I'd say.
Got any pointers or feedback on ways I can improve the site? My mates told me to join the bettingtools with jumpsadviser as the name and slap in bets there. I was thinking of joining the thread on here too. Think structure to betting is a way to improve. Hence my Friday picking for saturday races.
The best thing to do is make everything consistent. That way it is simple to follow and there is no room for ambiguity. I see the Staking has changed too.. from points at the beginning of the season to now stating stakes.
There are verified services people use as a way of tracking there bets and proofing it to the wider public but the betfair thread is excellent as no one has the option of moderating it. Everything is there in black and white.
There are verified services people use as a way of tracking there bets and proofing it to the wider public but the betfair thread is excellent as no one has the option of moderating it. Everything is there in black and white.
Yes I posted screenshots of my big wins over Christmas. What I'm also going to do is post my entire betting history either as a video or a series of screenshots. Or just post screenshots of the 10 biggest wins from my blog. I'll probably join bettingtools and I'll defo join the thread on here next season. All that will force myself to place bets in a more structured manner, I'm trying to eradicate bad habits like too many bets, lazy betting etc..
What I don't like is how poor pts tracking really is, return on investment or yield is more significant. If I bet 1000pts a season and make 100pts profit that's a yield of only 10% which means if people following miss a few of the prices I've taken on a Friday they may well end up breaking even or losing over a season.
One of my mates had told me he only took horses who were bigger odds from my site and ignored the short ones and asked why I even bet on those. That got me looking back on it. The yield on my bigger than 4/1 shots is 81.4% which is bloody awesome. Seeing that was like a big wake up call.
The key going forward is transparancy, building up strong credibility and permanent places like the betting thread here and bettingtools site is next for sure.
What I don't like is how poor pts tracking really is, return on investment or yield is more significant. If I bet 1000pts a season and make 100pts profit that's a yield of only 10% which means if people following miss a few of the prices I've taken on a Friday they may well end up breaking even or losing over a season.
One of my mates had told me he only took horses who were bigger odds from my site and ignored the short ones and asked why I even bet on those. That got me looking back on it. The yield on my bigger than 4/1 shots is 81.4% which is bloody awesome. Seeing that was like a big wake up call.
The key going forward is transparancy, building up strong credibility and permanent places like the betting thread here and bettingtools site is next for sure.
Shotavodka @ 25s - i just like the name 
Got a link for your blog CV? Apologies if I'm missing an obvious one...
http://jumpsadviser.com/blog/
@cvbyrne
I update it on Fridays around 5/6pm before I leave work when I place all my bets. I'll tweet if I back one midweek but they are not that common.
@cvbyrne
I update it on Fridays around 5/6pm before I leave work when I place all my bets. I'll tweet if I back one midweek but they are not that common.
warrantor must of lost a leg judging by the betting
was out to 8.2 mac
just a master trainer nick williams well done if you were on
just a master trainer nick williams well done if you were on
wd winners,
Heath Hunter traveled very well then faded tamely. One to watch nto over shorter trip.
Heath Hunter traveled very well then faded tamely. One to watch nto over shorter trip.
my granny could have won on that today.
wd winners
Warrantor very disapointing.
wd winners
Warrantor very disapointing.
GI mac, not sure if your granny can ride or if she gets the 7lb allowance. My original point was that with a competent rider using sensible tactics, the 7lb is a huge advantage. Tea For Two would have won with another 10lb as it happens.
which original point Sageform, can't see anything on the thread? Anyways, my post was a tongue in cheek reply to Iris, the post directly above.
GI MAC... got that lol
my granny who is in her 90s wouldnt have even got on that horse...
my granny who is in her 90s wouldnt have even got on that horse...
Apologies, it must have been on the horse racing forum where I made the point that Lizzie Kelly kept it simple and made best use of her 7lb allowance by riding up front, getting the horse jumping well and made it look very easy which it was.
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