Lexus Chase

What is the forecast ground expected to be?

At present Yielding ( soft in places ).

Of the big priced runners Texas Jack is worthy of consideration for an e/w bet. His last run looks to have been his best and on Sunday he may well get his ground. He needs to find a few pounds but at 33/1 could have some value.

Dun he beat Lord Windermere over 2m 5f last Jan on heavy, so is overpriced without doubt, also not far behind him few weeks back either,may back e/w myself now.

Can't wait to see Lord Windermere. I would still expect Jim to have him less than 100% fit until March, but he is still the clear form choice.

4/1 about Bobsworth is tempting. If you ignore the GC run, which wasn't that bad anyway, and you trust NJH in that the horse is better than ever..

If is a very big word though?

It's a race I won't be betting in.. no idea who'll win.

Boston Bob the value for me at 6/1. Was badly hampered last time which got lost in the post race praise of Lord Windermere's effort. Smooth win in the Punchestown Gold Cup, beating First Lieutenant in better style than Bobs Worth did earlier in the season. Huge improvement from Down Royal to Punchestown this term and expect him to take another step forward. Doesn't seem to be a massive amount of rain forecast which is also a positive. I'd have him favourite.

Road To Riches is a horse I've always liked and finally looked to be getting somewhere lto. Think he's overpriced to be honest. May not be easy to dominate from the front again here but I'm not sure he needs to.

People have written bobs worth off far too easily, 3 time winner at the festival and i know NHenderson doesnt seem to know how to train a horse over a period of time at the moment.

His 6th in the Haydock race was the only ever time Cue Card has won a staying chase, something not right about the form/ground/distance.

Bobs Worth looked at least being 2nd in the gold cup on near fast ground, something more than the slow pace went on that day. 

Not often you can back a horse that has won 10 of his 15 races and is rated 170 at 5/1

sorry 7/2

I think there are question marks about a few of these. The balance of Lord Windermere's form seems to point to him needing better ground, Bobs Worth may be not as good as he was (obviously best horse if spot on), Sam Winner gives me impression he is just below top class, Boston Bob unreliable....it leaves me thinking Road to Riches may be worth an interest. Probably have a small bet for a bit of interest as not that confident! Good luck to all.

Bobs Worth is by far the safest bet here imo. I know there are doubts about a lot of them including Bob's Worth but I think he has to be the safest option. On the others:

Boston Bob - Mullins says the ground is gone against him. I personally think he's a doubtful stayer and I'm not sure he's top class.
Lord Windermere - You''d have to be concerned by his runs at Leopardstown last season and as the above post says, it looks like he'd prefer faster ground.
Road to Riches - Best form in the summer all on right-handed tracks. He's an improver but the races he's won I feel have fallen apart and there's a lot more depth to this.
First Lieutenant - Really like this horse, he has a fair record at Leopatrdstown at Christmas: 1222 but massive concern about the ground too.
Sam Winner - The danger I feel. Nicholls has been in great form all season and this horse is a stayer but maybe not with the class of the others which is what might be needed.

Bob's Worth won this last year after kind of getting outpaced and staying onto the line. Geraghty said afterwards the horse doesn't like soft ground but I think he needs to bring his stamina into play. Ran well in the Gold Cup after being outpaced again and that weird jink at the end seemed odd. I'm not sure what the extent of his injuries were but everything at Henderson's seems to be encountering problems - still he says this is back to his best and he has a great record fresh. If you can take Henderson's word for it, then he has to be a great bet at around 7/2.

Will be chancing Sam Winner. Nicholls bringing one over is eyecatching in itself and has won this with unsexy horses like What a Friend and Tidal Bay and maybe he thinks Sam Winner is approaching that kind of level of ability. (Obviously not comparing Sam Winner to his PN's other Lexus winner Denman). You occasionally get the superstar winner, but sometimes you can step out of handicaps and win, like that one paced handicap soft ground plodder Synchronised a few years ago.

Also put up by Tom Seagul and Judorick.

If Sam Winner beats these then at least 3 of them have run 15-20Lb below form. Beating up serial handicap losers at Cheltenham off 147 and then 2 opponents at Ascot, one that's a serial loser albeit in top class or just below usually and a handicap winner off 150 that was smashed in G1 company, doesn't seem that great formwise to me but I've been wrong before.

Sam Winner is an improving hores though imo,would not write him off in this type of race, could take some winning today.

Hope Road to Riches runs a big race,hes my fancy for the Gold Cup. A race I shall watch with no bet I think.

Agreed Buddeliea, SW improving but could be said to be behind ROR, who has completed the ascent into graded company that SW has yet to do. I have had a few quid on ROR for the Gold Cup as well, so hoping he show's up well here today.

Texas Jack has good form against Lord Windermere and Boston Bob. Ran well for a long way on his return. 50/1 to tempting to ignore.

It`s a swerve for me and a no bet for him.

Well done benjy, few underwhelming performances in behind, Bobs Worth, Lord Windermere. Don't think Conti got too much to worry about from that field.

Lovely,enjoyed that. Both RTR and Sam Winner ran big races,be a lot shorter for Gold Cup now RTR.

carlingford lough ran a decent race after a decent bit of time off..should come on bundles for it lord windermere i just cannot work him out pretty much ran an identical race in this years lexus as last years! thought he wouldve been bang there after his comeback over a shorter trip. the gold cup wide open! i have backed 2 morning assembly and carlingford lough.. doubts about morning assembly going to cheltenham now though..does anybody know where lyreen legend is?

Dec 28, 2014 -- 9:07AM, stevo1 wrote:

Well done benjy, few underwhelming performances in behind, Bobs Worth, Lord Windermere. Don't think Conti got too much to worry about from that field.

Cheers

Good to see Bryan Cooper agreed that he didn't necessarily need to be in front. Very good ride there.

Will hold off on the GC for now I think.

Thought SW had it jumping the last.

Brave, gutsy stuff from the winner getting up there. I wouldn't dare lay him at Cheltenham, all I'd question is whether he can he keep doing this? He's been on the go almost non stop for the last year, was running at Galway when the big names where having their 6 months off.

Appreciate what you're saying but; 'on the go' is probably a bit ott. he's still had very few runs. That was his 7th run in a 12 month period and only his 14th under rules, which is obviously very few (3 days before) being an 8yo. I'd like to think he'd be capable of keeping it up for another 3 months and 2 runs...

Having said that I'd rather them freshen him up and go straight to Cheltenham but the plan seems Hennessy GC first.

Agree Benjy, I'm hoping they pass the Irish Hennessy

7 in 12 months is going some for a chaser.

Aye 5 is probably about average but all horses are different... He's hardly looking laboured so I assume it's doing him no harm.

With Bob's Worth running a shocker it is very unlikely that we saw a Gold Cup winner here but if I had to take a horse from this race it would have to be Boston Bob (25/1) EW Gold Cup because come March on goodish ground is well capable of  being placed  and with the exception of Silviaco Conti(???) looks a very open race.