Horse Antepost
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crazy!
People don't even know what the state of the ground will be like
Whether the horse is fit or injured?
Whether someone sabotages the horse before the race ?
Whether the trainer wants to run the horse in another race?
Faughueen 2-1 fav. He's probably 6/4 to make it to chelts fit and ground in his favor.
LAY FAUGHEEN. IF he make it to chelts. lay off for a small loss.
People don't even know what the state of the ground will be like
Whether the horse is fit or injured?
Whether someone sabotages the horse before the race ?
Whether the trainer wants to run the horse in another race?
Faughueen 2-1 fav. He's probably 6/4 to make it to chelts fit and ground in his favor.
LAY FAUGHEEN. IF he make it to chelts. lay off for a small loss.
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People like to 'willy wave'.
I'd say any horse without a history of injury is about 1/3 to make Cheltenham fit and well and Faugheen went rather well on fastish ground last year so the going is a non issue imo.
Still not taking 5/2 though.
I'd say any horse without a history of injury is about 1/3 to make Cheltenham fit and well and Faugheen went rather well on fastish ground last year so the going is a non issue imo.
Still not taking 5/2 though.
I'd be more than happy to take that 1/3.
I do agree that a lot of value has gone from antepost markets these days. Cue Card for example was shorter antepost in the week than he was today and this is quite often the case with favourites in these markets.
Antepost no doubt has it's place; when taking a proper speculative long range punt or when confident a race is going to cut up for example but I've certainly scaled down the level of my antepost bets over the years. Not got any antepost singles on the Cheltenham festival atm.
I do agree that a lot of value has gone from antepost markets these days. Cue Card for example was shorter antepost in the week than he was today and this is quite often the case with favourites in these markets.
Antepost no doubt has it's place; when taking a proper speculative long range punt or when confident a race is going to cut up for example but I've certainly scaled down the level of my antepost bets over the years. Not got any antepost singles on the Cheltenham festival atm.
I like antepost but use it only on a couple of events a year. Cheltenham festival being one and the King George being the other basically because they are priced up from 12 months in advance. I use antepost to build a 'under-round' book and choose my selections very very carefully. I follow the markets on here religiously before placing a bet with bookmakers and do it rather successfully. Quite often all i need is the race to be run and the result to be known to collect.
I agree though, taking short prices is not the way forwards. I wasn't around in the good old days of antepost you talk about above so i wouldn't know about it, maybe my method is used far wider out there and this be the reason why it isn't as good for you old timers. Or maybe its just a case of information and news being more widely available to most and also since the inauguration of the betting exchanges. Like i already said, before betfair i wouldn't have ever dreamed of ever placing an antepost bet cos quite often you know your fate by following the markets on exchanged before the media tells you.
What kind of prices e/g would Cue Card have been in the week leading up to todays race and what would you have expected to have seen on SC for the King George in the 'good old days'
I agree though, taking short prices is not the way forwards. I wasn't around in the good old days of antepost you talk about above so i wouldn't know about it, maybe my method is used far wider out there and this be the reason why it isn't as good for you old timers. Or maybe its just a case of information and news being more widely available to most and also since the inauguration of the betting exchanges. Like i already said, before betfair i wouldn't have ever dreamed of ever placing an antepost bet cos quite often you know your fate by following the markets on exchanged before the media tells you.
What kind of prices e/g would Cue Card have been in the week leading up to todays race and what would you have expected to have seen on SC for the King George in the 'good old days'
I still enjoy the antepost but i feel the massive prices have gone like it used to be 10 years back.
in 2006 i backed a horse at 499/1 and 749/1 that finished 2nd in both races.
I guess we are all dreamers and live in the future.
in 2006 i backed a horse at 499/1 and 749/1 that finished 2nd in both races.
I guess we are all dreamers and live in the future.
antepost bets pay for holidays, days out, season tickets etc etc
My particular reason for betting ante post is as follows :-
BRONZE ANGEL 33/1 for Cambridgeshire Handicap, have done
these type of bets since the early 1960s with some success,
sometimes have had non runners, but have taken that with
an amount of "what will be, will be", overall very successful.
BRONZE ANGEL 33/1 for Cambridgeshire Handicap, have done
these type of bets since the early 1960s with some success,
sometimes have had non runners, but have taken that with
an amount of "what will be, will be", overall very successful.
Silviniano Conti started at about the best price he ever was for the Betfair Chase yesterday. Ante post is fine if you are or know a connection of the horse and know for sure that it is an intended runner. Horses that shorten up and win always make the headlines but just as many winners are easier to back on the day than 6 months earlier.
As the op is pointing out to take a SHORT price several
months in advance, is utterly stupid, but if there are several
short priced horses in different races, could be taken in
multiple ante post bets, that would make sense but individual
ante post bets, NO!!!!
months in advance, is utterly stupid, but if there are several
short priced horses in different races, could be taken in
multiple ante post bets, that would make sense but individual
ante post bets, NO!!!!
personally ante post betting is pretty dead for me now, as we are getting near the same prices near the day a lot of the time
i have stepped out for one bet this year as i feel the price is very wrong and i am getting the edge on a mistake by the layers, only imo of course and if he does a leg it will be an expensive experience but am happy to keep accommodating the price until it shortens dramatically to its true price reflected by the horse true ability...people will argue about ground and they are right but when you have a horse who goes on both types of ground it is helpful, however generally i don't play ante post anymore
i have stepped out for one bet this year as i feel the price is very wrong and i am getting the edge on a mistake by the layers, only imo of course and if he does a leg it will be an expensive experience but am happy to keep accommodating the price until it shortens dramatically to its true price reflected by the horse true ability...people will argue about ground and they are right but when you have a horse who goes on both types of ground it is helpful, however generally i don't play ante post anymore
My only AP bet so far is Lord Windermere for the Gold Cup. He will probably still be the same price on the day though as Jim C is unlikely to have him fully wound up before the big day.
I only really do antepost betting on the chelt fest and try to concentrate on the novices, if I remember rightly faugheen was available at this time last year at 16,s, so antepost betting is not dead yet...
I take the point on prices and this is the case most weeks for the 'normal' Saturday big races on tv, however it is not always the case for some of the biggest meetings of the national hunt calender i.e cheltenham fest and king george. A couple of handicaps come into that category too, Grand National is a good one and but to a much smaller extent the Welsh National.
I've had a couple bets so far,
CF @ 8s and Al Ferof @12s for the KG, i fully expect them to be joint 2nd fav's come the 26th Dec of around the 9/2 - 5/1 area and don't think any bookies out there would want to be pushing them out to what prices they were ap. I backed SC at 4s yesterday, ok this one is more dodgy cos if Simonsig comes out and proves his wellbeing and is as good as he was he surely be made jolly and SC is out to 9/2 for ap purposes but on the day SC wont be more than 7/2 2ndf, if sig dont come back SC is 7/4. I cant see sig being shorter than 7/4 if he comes back on the day. In fact i expect more like 5/2. So with them three bets their already beating the on the day prices comfortably which ever way you looking at it and still have milage to back a couple of the others staking carefully and odds 10/1+
I've had a couple bets so far,
CF @ 8s and Al Ferof @12s for the KG, i fully expect them to be joint 2nd fav's come the 26th Dec of around the 9/2 - 5/1 area and don't think any bookies out there would want to be pushing them out to what prices they were ap. I backed SC at 4s yesterday, ok this one is more dodgy cos if Simonsig comes out and proves his wellbeing and is as good as he was he surely be made jolly and SC is out to 9/2 for ap purposes but on the day SC wont be more than 7/2 2ndf, if sig dont come back SC is 7/4. I cant see sig being shorter than 7/4 if he comes back on the day. In fact i expect more like 5/2. So with them three bets their already beating the on the day prices comfortably which ever way you looking at it and still have milage to back a couple of the others staking carefully and odds 10/1+
Have done a few for the festival already, mostly in the in any race market with hills mind you but even at them prices ive took on them bets they will either beat or be the same as on the day i expect.
Those who enjoy ante post and make it pay have my admiration. I rarely get it right. My only Festival ante post bet before Xmas last season was Garde La Victoire in the Supreme. He was twice the price on the day and it was his only really poor run of his career so far! Not that he would ever beat Vautour at level weights.
SAGE, look at BRONZE ANGEL form when winning his first Cambridgeshire as a 3yo,
picked up an injury as a 4yo and did not start UNTIL that years Cambridgeshire,
ran down the field which could only be expected first time out, ran once more
and put away for winter after.
First show of everything back to normal was at Royal Ascot when running on 4th,
kept ticking over for 3rd attempt at Cambridgeshire, where he was lower in weight
when he won it as a 3yo, Laddies were laying bigger than anyone else at 33/1,
managed to get 36 on here once before betfair were laying less than laddies.
In most intances horses improve from 3 to 4 and then again from 4 to 5, so
in theory ANGEL was well in on the handicap, this is not an isolated incident
as it happens at infrequent interval, look at FUNFARE WAYNE form in AYR GOLD CUP.
picked up an injury as a 4yo and did not start UNTIL that years Cambridgeshire,
ran down the field which could only be expected first time out, ran once more
and put away for winter after.
First show of everything back to normal was at Royal Ascot when running on 4th,
kept ticking over for 3rd attempt at Cambridgeshire, where he was lower in weight
when he won it as a 3yo, Laddies were laying bigger than anyone else at 33/1,
managed to get 36 on here once before betfair were laying less than laddies.
In most intances horses improve from 3 to 4 and then again from 4 to 5, so
in theory ANGEL was well in on the handicap, this is not an isolated incident
as it happens at infrequent interval, look at FUNFARE WAYNE form in AYR GOLD CUP.
I certainly don't back as much antepost as I used to. Bookmakers are less and less willing to take a bet and therefore offer some pretty rancid antepost prices now. I do think it's become quite popular as people like to have something to look forward to I guess but a lot of the value in it is gone.
Many years ago, as a teenager I took a price for the GRAND NATIONAL,
a horse which had fallen at the 26th fence, I think.
This bet defined my thinking of ante post because I took 12/1 12 months
before the following years NATIONAL, NEEDLESS TO SAY, THE HORSE WON AT 20/1,
that horse was SUNDEW, although I did get the bigger price but nearer the date.
SUNDEW was ridden on both occasions by FRED WINTER, on the first occasion he had tried to make all only to fall at the 26th fence when about 15 lengths clear, this ride was for a small training establishment, he did exactly the same on his second attempt,
the difference being he stood up and won by 7 lengths.
a horse which had fallen at the 26th fence, I think.
This bet defined my thinking of ante post because I took 12/1 12 months
before the following years NATIONAL, NEEDLESS TO SAY, THE HORSE WON AT 20/1,
that horse was SUNDEW, although I did get the bigger price but nearer the date.
SUNDEW was ridden on both occasions by FRED WINTER, on the first occasion he had tried to make all only to fall at the 26th fence when about 15 lengths clear, this ride was for a small training establishment, he did exactly the same on his second attempt,
the difference being he stood up and won by 7 lengths.
There's a market. Punters who build a book, layers who want to take them on. For most
AP players it's a slow-burning market that takes shape over many months and reaches a
perfect crescendo a few days before the race. Sometimes it pans out, other times it doesn't.
I doubt many of the serious AP players on here pick 1-2 horses; most of them build a position
brick by brick as they read the clues. Some of the in-depth knowledge shown on this forum is
astonishing. Some people almost know what trainers are going to do before the trainers themselves.
AP players it's a slow-burning market that takes shape over many months and reaches a
perfect crescendo a few days before the race. Sometimes it pans out, other times it doesn't.
I doubt many of the serious AP players on here pick 1-2 horses; most of them build a position
brick by brick as they read the clues. Some of the in-depth knowledge shown on this forum is
astonishing. Some people almost know what trainers are going to do before the trainers themselves.
If you seee a horse win one of the trials for the, 1000, or 2000 guineas, well, in the spring its almost guaranteed to be significantly shorter on the day.
The Grand National has only a few recognised staying trials if a horse wins one of these easily his starting price often shrinks drtamatically compaired to the price you could get backing him immediately after his trial.
The Grand National has only a few recognised staying trials if a horse wins one of these easily his starting price often shrinks drtamatically compaired to the price you could get backing him immediately after his trial.
Betting a long way ahead is for those with very good information about running intentions, fitness etc but betting a week ahead of a race is fair enough Even then prices of most horses don't move much. I backed Gods Own for the Tingle Creek a week ago but he has only shortened half a point and could easily be longer on the day.
I used to love antepost betting, especially on here where you could trade huge prices as horses won their trials etc. It's all but dead for me nowadays though, the bookies run terrified of anything that looks Cheltenham bound and more and more people are clued up earlier on due to (fantastic) season preview books etc etc
Champagne fever is a lay for me this boxing day. it is a doubt to go.
I have started this week using all the Free bets I get to place bets for the Festival. Should be in a decent position come March at no cost. Money back 2nds and fallers etc
Shockster, i do something similar with my freebets, allows you to ride out the ante-post volatility thinking that you have only used promotional money
I do back AP at big prices on here, but the free bets are usually losing concessions so will have about 14 weeks of them to build up a Cheltenham bank. We'll see how it goes.
ante post is only good for those who follow the markets really closely.
For any part time backers, for Cheltenham especially, just wait for day of race - BOG, money back for 2nds, extra places and so on. Plus you know which race your horse is actually running in which is a real bonus :)
For any part time backers, for Cheltenham especially, just wait for day of race - BOG, money back for 2nds, extra places and so on. Plus you know which race your horse is actually running in which is a real bonus :)
Brandyontherocks, if you look at my bets I was
trying to forecast the future, now curb your jealousy and
think before you post, maybe this is why you are ON THE ROCKS!!!!!!
trying to forecast the future, now curb your jealousy and
think before you post, maybe this is why you are ON THE ROCKS!!!!!!
The upside down form of many yards is making ante post betting a dangerous game this season. Henderson is all over the place, Hobbs has been on fire until now but there were a few signs over the holiday that they may have peaked, Nicholls has some running really well while others are running poorly. Rebecca Curtis seems right out of form, McCain still not over whatever is wrong there etc. It might make sense to back Ireland to win about 15 of the festival races!
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