Betfair Chase - Saturday 22nd November

Ma Filleule 25/1 for me

Having backed Dynaste for the KG I hope for a similar performance to last year.

I am going to watch this and very much looking forward to it, the new Grade 2 hurdle is a welcome addition to a decent looking card.

I've no idea what's going to win at this stage - Ballynagour is an intriguing entry but also entered in Fixed Brush Hurdle and the Hennessy plus, as pointed out above, the stable has Dynaste.

Ground currently soft but little or no rain in the current forecast - if it dries out sufficiently for Menorah to take part I'd give him a big chance, looked totally rejuvenated the last two runs and stable still flying.

I love Cue Card but was n't overly enamoured with his performance at Exeter in comparison to previous years and I was also underwhelmed by Conti at Wetherby so would be wanting to take those two on even allowing for different race, different day, different track.

I have Ballynagour on my shortish list as well Rease. He needs to find about 11lb but that is not impossible.

what course is this run on ?

wasn't it run on the flat course last year were time was astonishingly quick and stayers had no chance if so harry is a million and drifting

If the word 'soft' appears in the going, I'd be hugely keen on Taquin de Seuil's chances here. Needed his reappearance and found the ground at Wetherby a little too quick. A bit of cut it what this one needs and I like his price.

Conti to return to form hopefully,1st target of season re trainer.

9 left in after 5 day entries:

Cue Card
Silviniaco Conti
Dynaste
Taquin De Seuil
Menorah
Double Ross
Medermit
Harry Topper
The Giant Bolster

Still a good race if that lot turn up. What's the going likely to be? Soft everywhere around here after last week's downpours.

Currently soft, doubt it'll dry up too much.

Almost no rain forecast all week up here and not that soft. I think it might be Good to Soft, Soft in places by Saturday.

Dynaste to run RPR 175+ and finish no worse than 2nd (5 WINS, 3 SECONDS FROM 9 CHASES)

that level of form may well be enough for victory this time on first start as a 3rd season chaser

Thought you were a Cue Card fan, JR?

I've never thought that Dynaste was at his best over 3 miles. This years Betfred Bowl was proof enough of that; got a very average/slow pace to quicken off but was still outstayed by Silvi Conti. Can't see it reversing the form here.

up to you what you can and can't see, Dynaste finished in front of SC in this last year and no reason he can't again

and, no offence, I'll take my judgement over yours every time

CC has it all to prove plus has a complete wannnkker of a jockey on board, he won me a small fortune last year as I was amazed he was available at 13+ when it was obvious he would trade much shorter in running

but at less than 4/1 he is no value this year for me

Cue Card the class act in the race for me. Taquin for the forecast if it stays soft, otherwise Dynaste.

Fast pace + soft ground = Taquin Time

No idea why you went daggers out at Thunder Road there Judo!

Difference to last years race is that SC comes into it having had a run, he did not last year.

I don't think Dynaste quite gets the credit he deserves though tbh, as, if he does not win, he finishes 2nd. He is a very consistent horse, but I think he is being primed for the King George so i'll just hope for a big run on Saturday. 3m1f is just above his optimum imo, 3m at Kempton will be plum.

Both Cue Card and Conti were disappointing on their reappearance IMHO, you'd expect both to come on for the run but they have a lot to prove now

going is now described as soft (good to soft in places) with a GS reading of 7.2 on the chase course (for reference last year's renewal was run with a description of soft and a going stick reading of 5.2)

Different track but Menorah's win at Wetherby was achieved with a GS reading of 6.9 on the chase course and a description of Good (GS in places).Menorah was on level weights with Conti and TGB but gave weight and a comfortable beating to TDS (5lbs),Double Ross (4lbs)and Medermit (10lbs).

All that said, there is significant rain in the forcast now for late Friday and most of day on Saturday.

So I think Menorah is a player here but too much rain could still scupper his chances. I see Dynaste as the most likely winner but could also see TDS winning if the rain materialises.

So, for me, I have to wait before having a bet...

Not just daggers Sint, but a lovely aftertime

The book are finding it hard to split the top three but; I'm not sure Dynaste will be fully primed FTO, Silvi's Wetherby run was an absolute stinker and can't simply be a case of being unfit - I couldn't touch him and may even place lay. So preference would be for CC, he won it last time, he went well for a long way giving away a lot of weight LTO and this is more his trip.
If it's really testing the Harry Topper for a place could also be considered.

I agree regarding Menorah. When I saw the forecast that suggested little or no rain, I was leaning to him over Cue Card. However that seems to have changed with heavy rain due Friday night/Sat morning. I think I will wait until the day and see what they actually get.

I consider Conti and Cue Card the classiest horses in the race , but they were disappointing fto, even allowing for the need for race fitness. Both were well supported in their respective races so I don't think connections believed they were too far behind.  I think Conti probably needs soft ground to be at his best. Cue Card may have needed it more than expected due to the time off injured. Dynaste goes well fresh but I've never really warmed to him; not a big fan of Pipe tbh. I'm not convinced that TDS is ready to take these on off levels just yet - if there was much rain he'd become interesting however. Hobbs is still flying and Menorah looks overpriced if there's not much rain. Harry Topper considered if we have a downpour, but no chance otherwise. I'm not convinced Double Ross wants 3m1f and Medermit and TGB have no chance imo.

I may as well wait for the day now. Sorry for the babble. Thinking out loud really.

"...  plus has a complete wannnkker of a jockey on board "

[i]"Sorry for the babble"[/]

No need to apologise, AC. Babble is good. This is a great thread. I love reading everyone's views.

Can't wait for this race.

Huge Cue Card  fan so hoping he can win but will also be very happy if Dynaste or TDS comes home in front. Love The Bolster, too.

The main thing is that they all  come home safe and sound.

If Menorah runs 7/1 would appeal to me. It was a taking performance at Wetherby and he is entitled to come on for the run. A really good contest in prospect.

Makybe_Diva 19 Nov 14 14:24 Joined: 05 May 12 | Topic/replies: 8,252 | Blogger: Makybe_Diva's blog
"...  plus has a complete wannnkker of a jockey on board "

Shocked

Last five years
Daryl Jacob 149 Chase winners at a 23%S/R +£66 to level steaks
Joe Tizzard 59 Chase winners at a 14% S/R -£110 to level steaks (Not inc season 2014/15 obvs)

Not withstanding Joe's clear understanding with the horse, it's not inconceivable that he will improve for the new pilot. How he can be seen as a reason to oppose, is beyond me.......

Don't rate Daryl Jacob  as the worst, nor do I rate him as the best. I do rate him as a better jockey than Tizzard though. Would take him everyday over him.

I would much prefer Joe to still be riding Cue Card but I was pleased enough with how Daryl rode him at Exeter.

Cue Card posted the seasons best rating for a chaser in this race last year, he is the class act and likeliest winner - although the value has certainly gone. Conti the danger....has had a run unlike last year. If it rains heavy Friday night, the Topper is worth a saver - usually wins first time out.....

every time Dynaste has run over 3m out
of novice company he's been beaten.Think
he might be better at shorter against
genuine top class stayers.

Bear in mind that Pipe (rightly IMO) thinks that Dynaste has the speed for 2 miles also. He's just not got IT at the highest level

over 3 miles, sorry.

Yeh i am of that opinion re Dynaste, I do rate this horse but I really think his optimum distance is around 2 and  half at the top level.
Yes,of course he stays further his race record shows that,but I think hes slightly out his comfort zone at 3m sort of distance against top notch stayers.

Cheek pieces, soft ground, strong pace, 3m1f, Geraghty in the Saddle. Taquin Time

Jacob is a far superior jockey to Tizzard, that much should be obvious to anyone who watches the sport imo.

Assuming the ground improves slightly (good to soft I expect) this is between Cue Card and Silviano Conti, as boring as it seems. Hope CC can win it again tbh but with the benefit of the run this year and this actually seeming to be a target I expect SC to get much closer.

Will wait for the day before having any sort of bet.

There's rain due the next two days, so I suspect we'll be getting soft ground.

Menorah for me. He has found a bit of his old form i feel, gave Taquin 5ib and a comfortable beating lto when Taquin had had a run before that so wasn't his seasonal debut, SC was on levels with Menorah and beaten too far for me to be comfortable with although still at the same time wouldn't be surprised if he was to turn the tables with my selection on Saturday. Menorah has ran well on sft ground before, winning a couple times. CC back from injury, people are saying maybe he needed the run at Exeter, maybe, but he is back from injury and compared to 2013s haldon gold cup i feel that run this year is a little bit regressive on last seasons debut effort and therefore at 4.4 i'm willing to also risk him beating my selection also.

With the Hobbs stable in such blistering form, any price above 13/2 3 places 1/4 will do for me, and i can help myself to 9s!

Taquin on good ground is not the real Taquin.

Maybe so, but i can't get myself away from these two pieces of form, unless i am missing something

15Nov13      Chl 20.5Gd C2NvCh 12K    11-7    1/4 (nk Oscar Whisky 11-2) 3/1    A P McCoy  -  won a neck off levels

01Jan14      Chl 21Sft C1NvChG2 18K    11-7    2/4 (¾L Oscar Whisky 11-7) 6/4    A P McCoy  -  beaten by same horse on sft ground that people on here seem to think he prefers and in receipt of 5ib's

His form after those two runs is patchy too.

And i wouldn't have OW down as a top notcher, i once thought he was/could be and wish that he did but i would have OW around about the same level as Menorah et al

Ever thought there were bigger prizes in store?

Well TDS likes soft ground,but this aint 2 and a half. Hes yet to prove he stays well over 3m and soft ground may make that tricky to achieve.
Still he ought to be improving,and hes one I am interested to see,but certainly no bet.
Looking at the race I see no reason why Menorah cannot win again. Ground should be fine,hes in good form and the stables still going along nicely.

i'm up to my nuts with conti ante post for the king george, i'm going in again with him for the betfair chase, nicholls is the man to get him to peak for the big days - wetherby was just a pipe opener, expect massive improvement !!!!

first time cheekpieces also, just need it to rain and i can see conti going off 2/1 fav

my tickets have just arrived for haydock and I,ll be piling on conti as well, think it will be a good day for nicholls with AF at ascot aswell

My sense tells me Jonjo and Pipe don't really believe either TDS or Dynaste are natural/true 3m Chasers. When March comes round they have reverted to the shorter races. I think they want them to be 3m Chasers and Gold Cup horses and on flat tracks they may well be able to hold their own but when it comes to a true run 3m Chase against the real 3m Chasers they are not quite top notch. Just my gut feel. Saturday may blow my theory out of the water but if SC and CC give them a wooping I will be a wealthier man…….not a wealthy man but wealthier than I am today and will be putting my winnings on both Dynaste and TDS to win the Ryanair in March. 

not stopped raining all the way through this afternoon's meeting...

That is some strength on Dynaste in the market currently.

I remain with Cue Card and Taquin for the forecast. If it's bordering on heavy I'll take the latter to win as he'll handle it the best. Can't have Menorah as he's been beaten too many times by these in the better races (which don't include the Charlie Hall). SC is the danger. I won't back him as he showed no guts at Cheltenham. Cheek pieces are a good idea but blinkers would be even better. I suspect they're saving them.

took the 14's ew harry topper earlier its going to be bottomless cant have t d s never shown me anything to say he wants 3m

How about staying on last time on his first attempt at 3m?

Harry Topper fresh and on heavy ground is as good as it gets for him, this is his gold cup.

Massive TDS fan, he would stay 4 miles imo so the trip isnt really a problem, but his price doesnt represent value given all the variables.

Anyone know the race running of this race ?

which part of the track are they using etc ?

STAYING ON?

Third Intention today showed the improvement under a proper jockey that Tizzard's can make.

CC got the injury to prove he is over though so I've decided not worth risking for me.

My Tissue to about 100%

Silvi Conti  11/4
Cue Card      5/1
Dynaste       5/1
Harry Top     6/1
Taquin DS     7/1
Menorah       16/1
D Ross/Med    33/1
Giant Bol     100/1

The bet would have to be Harry Topper at 11/1.

Looks a great race just wish I was there.
Good luck all.

I take it with  your 5/1 quote for Cue Card and 6/1 for Harry Topper that the ground is looking like being heavy?

Do you think that Third Intention improved? The rest were a sorry bunch.

I thought the ground looked soft yesterday and had more rain since racing.
I was disappointed with Cue Card at Exeter. Harry Topper goes really well fresh obviously I think Silvi will win and it depends if I'm looking for the winner or my perceived value.

Despite my write up above have changed my mind

I've put a line through Menorah and instead going to back Silvi Conti and Harry Topper each way. Off out in 2 mins to grab the early prices in the shops, 4/1 Hills for conti and 12/1 HT

GL all

Nov 22, 2014 -- 1:23AM, sageform wrote:

Do you think that Third Intention improved? The rest were a sorry bunch.

Previously under Tizzard he always looked a dog. Traveled well and found little. Yesterday he kept going in front no problem at all.

Sea should have waited 9/2 Conti with b2bob now.

Of course staying on. If you look at Taquin's last run again and still think he wasn't staying on then it's back to the bat cave imo. If he is beaten today there will be no excuses on trip or ground.

TDS nearly going fav, but has less matched than SC or CC.

I can see SC improving on last year with the benefit of the prep run and cheekpieces (won't be spending my money to find out but would consider backing him to make amends in the Gold Cup) but I can't see why the ground conditions are being put up as a reason for him beating Cue Card. It's not as soft as it was last year when Cue card beat him. What's that all about?

I have backed Menorah, with more hope than confidence. But later on there may be some fancy prices offered about The Giant Bolster . He has the best heavy ground form by some way and just because he keeps his best for Cheltenham does not mean that he cannot perform elsewhere.

cmon TDS

GOWAN THERE THE CONTI NEXT STOP KEMPTON   

WHAT A RUN FROM MENORAH THOUGH TOO 

Pulled up.

Great prep run from Dynaste for the King George, imo.

did not jump a twig, desperate.

Dynaste not got it a 3m against
the best.

Thing is Ibra he has looked desperate on his debut run too.

Maybe Penzance but today was 3m1f on Soft, nearly Heavy. 3m at Kempton on GS, if we get it, should be plum for him. He's being trained for Kempton.

CC not looking the same horse, must have done something in the King George last year.

can't see him winning a KG unless the
top stayers miss the gig.Only my opinion,
though.
  GL

I appreciate he won it last year but... Cue Card I'm still not convinced sees out 3 miles. Should be targeting the Ryanair.

A fairly predictable result today, which is pleasing. Menorah ran a cracker as well.

Conti back as trainer thought trained for this, good performance but doubt we saw Gold Cup winner in field.

^ inclined to agree, backed Menorah in the end in spite of the ground, partly based on his appearance in the parade ring - he loooked fantastic - so close but no cigar...

Nicholls remains superb at getting his charges to concert pitch on the right days, not watched it back yet but it seemed SC just outstayed Menorah on the ground.I think Menorah now becomes potentially interesting for King George given decent ground though.

Who knows what the ground will be on Boxing Day though.

Agreed ReaseHeath

Benjy,
Last year with a proper jockey CC jumped, travelled, exuded confidence. Now with a different pilot it blunders about like it's blindfolded. Shame the previous pilot hung up his boots a year too soon.

Tempted by Menorah for the GC myself after that.

joe tizzard a proper jockey

wouldnt trust him to give cheryl cole a good ride

I was never a big fan of Joe Tizzard, but I think he'd developed a good relationship with Cue Card. Early in his chasing career he made errors like he did today. I don't think I can back him again now until I see the partnership work. Conti looked very good, as he seems to every other time. I fancy him for the King George despite the one win every two record though, at least if it's soft ground.

Nov 22, 2014 -- 1:41PM, Wicketd wrote:

joe tizzard a proper jockey wouldnt trust him to give cheryl cole a good ride

This.

He no doubt built a relationship with the horse being the only person to ever ride him.

Assuming Cue Card has recovered from the injury; I have no doubt in time that Jacob will be far better for the horse than Tizzard will be.

Spot on above about this being SC's gold cup as well.

King George should be a cracker. Hope Champagne Fever comes over and Simonsig gets there in one piece.

CC won a dubious distance and ground race last season.

Harry Topper has always been a poor jumper. He needs absolutely bottomless ground to trouble grade 1 horses. It wasn't as soft as people were expecting today. Class showed in the end, with the best 4 horses in the race (imo) filling the top 4 spots.

they should go to the Welsh National with Harry Topper but Bailey seems reluctant to run him in a big field handicap - in fairness, I think that might be because he thinks his jumping would come under even more pressure in a big field.

TDS will win a top H'cap before or at Cheltenham .

Can't agree with several posts here. Cue Card has now twice been soundly beaten by Silvi and was farther behind yesterday than at Kempton. Can't see the form being reversed over 3 miles or more.
Menorah looked a big danger at the second last but didn't stay as well as Silvi from there on. Can't see him getting the GC trip well enough to reverse the form.

The best trial for the Welsh National was surely Gas Line Boy. He will go up to around 140 so should easily get into the race and could be much better than that.

The King George seems to be between Silvi, Al Ferof and whatever Irish horses come over.

I don't see Menorah as a Gold Cup horse, I doubt he'll even run in the race especially given his trainer thinks his optimum trip is 2m 6f - they'll probably wait for the Betfair Bowl at Aintree again in which he was well beaten by Conti this year but finished in front of him just behind First Lieutenant in Apr 13.

I think we learned yesterday that the rejuvenated form shown by Menorah over his last three starts is not just down to racing on better ground (though I don't think the surface yesterday was so bad anyway). The score between him and Conti in 3m plus chases is now 4-2 in Conti's favour so it's far from implausible that Menorah could reverse the form on decent ground over 3 miles dead.

Having said that, I would n't be falling over myself to back him for the King George because it looks a deeper race than yesterday - I do agree that Al Ferof ran a very taking trial yesterday and may yet be a little bit underestimated for the Kempton race because of what happened last year.