Horse Antepost
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Made a nice wee pile last year laying Cue Card at evens, but there's no danger of that this year with him trading at 100/30.
Cue Card again has a tough task running off 172 against some decent (and potentially well-handiapped sorts). He's had a nearly a year off, the trip's perhaps on the short side and he presumably won't be fully revved up for this one. We can leave him alone.
Balder Succes is my idea of the winner, but I'm disappointed to see him so short. He was seriously impressive at Aintree showing a nice turn of foot before disappointing slightly at Punchestown. I still think he was much the best horse in the race that day, but was given a shocking ride by Wayne Hutchinson who had him too close to a suicidal pace that suited the hold-up horses. 162 is a fair mark and I think he'll prove hard to beat.
Somersby won this last year and had a very good season subsequently, most notably with a good second in the Champion Chase. He was arguably the second best 2 miler of the year and could prove a tough nut to crack off the front-end here. However, he is racing off a 9 pound higher mark than last year and that may be enough to get him beaten?
Hinterland didn't give his true running on his last start but was running eye-catchingly well when falling in the Champion Chase. He's obviously highly regarded by the Pumpkin and he handicapper has been generous to him with a mark of 154. May not appreciate the extra 3 furlongs, however. Though with him being the type to run well fresh, you should discount him at your peril.
God's Own was lucky winning a Group 1 at Punchestown and 155 doesn't exactly scream him being chucked in. That being said, he gets an extra 7 pounds from favourite Balder Succes and will get a strong pace to aim at from the back. He could go close.
Pepite Rose looks outclassed and doesn't appear well-handicapped. He can be left alone. Oscar Hill is likewise out of the handicapper but will help ensure a fair gallop.
The conclusion?
There are 3 or 4 front-running animals so we can ensure a good test will be had. Cue Card looks too high in the weights and Hinterland may not quite get home despite being well handicapped.
I think it'll come down to Balder Succes, Somersby & God's Own. The strong pace will suit the latter two more, and there's not much value about Balder Succes at 5/2.
I'm betting:
Somersby @ 9/2
God's Own 6/1.
GL - looking forward to some other views.
Cue Card again has a tough task running off 172 against some decent (and potentially well-handiapped sorts). He's had a nearly a year off, the trip's perhaps on the short side and he presumably won't be fully revved up for this one. We can leave him alone.
Balder Succes is my idea of the winner, but I'm disappointed to see him so short. He was seriously impressive at Aintree showing a nice turn of foot before disappointing slightly at Punchestown. I still think he was much the best horse in the race that day, but was given a shocking ride by Wayne Hutchinson who had him too close to a suicidal pace that suited the hold-up horses. 162 is a fair mark and I think he'll prove hard to beat.
Somersby won this last year and had a very good season subsequently, most notably with a good second in the Champion Chase. He was arguably the second best 2 miler of the year and could prove a tough nut to crack off the front-end here. However, he is racing off a 9 pound higher mark than last year and that may be enough to get him beaten?
Hinterland didn't give his true running on his last start but was running eye-catchingly well when falling in the Champion Chase. He's obviously highly regarded by the Pumpkin and he handicapper has been generous to him with a mark of 154. May not appreciate the extra 3 furlongs, however. Though with him being the type to run well fresh, you should discount him at your peril.
God's Own was lucky winning a Group 1 at Punchestown and 155 doesn't exactly scream him being chucked in. That being said, he gets an extra 7 pounds from favourite Balder Succes and will get a strong pace to aim at from the back. He could go close.
Pepite Rose looks outclassed and doesn't appear well-handicapped. He can be left alone. Oscar Hill is likewise out of the handicapper but will help ensure a fair gallop.
The conclusion?
There are 3 or 4 front-running animals so we can ensure a good test will be had. Cue Card looks too high in the weights and Hinterland may not quite get home despite being well handicapped.
I think it'll come down to Balder Succes, Somersby & God's Own. The strong pace will suit the latter two more, and there's not much value about Balder Succes at 5/2.
I'm betting:
Somersby @ 9/2
God's Own 6/1.
GL - looking forward to some other views.
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Thought Cue card is getting a jockey upgrade and would depend on fitness. I'm not too perturbed by they trip although would agree its probably maybe 2f too short of his optimum.
However I would have concerns around all the second season lot especially God's own who seems to have received his OR from a highly unsatisfactory running of the Ryanair Novice chase at Punchestown. Thought it might have been that many of the other runners were over the top. Previously he had been well beaten in Novice chases when rated 137. I wonder whether the ground found a few out that day. Moscow Mannon won yesterday which adds a bit of gloss but I wonder if last years runners both in the Aintree Chase and Arkle are a bit of an average to poor bunch. Be an interesting race none the less |
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There are other days for Cue Card and at evens I'd be a layer. But there's an argument to say that he isn't too badly treated, only giving 10lb to Balder Success doesn't sound too bad to me and as the OP has intimated, we don't know how good last years novices will end up being.
I know Tizzard has said he wants further, but I'm not so sure. Had they decided not to go over further following his Arkle second (mainly due to avoiding the beast), he could still be top drawer over the minimum and might well have won this years QMCC, he would certainly have been thereabouts. 100/30 is more than fair and having had no intention of backing him, I probably will (I couldn't let him win unbacked!). The saver will be a RFC with Hinterland, the one I do feel might be well in. |
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If you fancy Balder but he is too short, should you not be making this a non bet.
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Last years winner Somersby has to shoulder 9lbs more this year and he’s a year older now. Cue Card is using this as a prep for the Betfair Chase, he couldn’t win under top weight last year and he’s surely lost some speed as he’s getting older. He is a stunning horse but he has to give 20lbs to Hinterland who has an excellent record fresh having won fto for the past 3 seasons, his record right handed is 2211. I’d be inclined to forgive his effort at Aintree when he was pulled up and he was brought down in the Champion chase. He’s got a first time tongue tie fitted here which may indicate he had breathing issues last season. He was rated 154 which would put him on top here on ratings to boot. Balder Succes might just be a little over rated based on his novice form where skipping the Arkle let him win well at Aintree. While Gods Own would likely prove the pick of the rest here, but it’s important to note he ran his best in Spring last season.
Hinterland @ 4/1 http://jumpsadviser.com/blog/ @cvbyrne |
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^^^ tend to agree race revolves around balder for me.
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Backed Balder Success at 100/30 as his price has drifted to bigger than expected. I think he only missed Cheltenham due to the fall he had there on his second start (7 days after debut btw) where he was just unlucky to clip the top of the fence and come down, he would have won otherwise.
Hinterland looked promising on his first two chase starts but then had a 98 day break during the season for some reason. He was brought down in the QMCC before being able to tell how well he would have run and he then ran a stinker at Aintree. For that reason he's hard to judge, imo, so i'll have a saving stake only on him at 4/1. |
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Hinterland stands out like a chocolate flake in a 99er.
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I've backed Gods Own here, was running a cracking race first time up last year (admittedly not against horses of this calibre) won in Ireland and form franked by 2nd and 4th and gets a 7lb pull for beating Balder. 7/1 very fair.
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don't post often but I have to say Cue Card faces a monumental task and I'm surprised to see he has been backed from 4.3 to 3.6 today, 172 is a mighty handicap mark to overcome
giving 20lb to Hinterland alone will be very tough so I will be looking to lay win and place, particularly in running, especially if he goes very short I do love the horse and rate him highly but today he has everything against him |
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WD OP and otters
Cue Card went well for a long way, he'll have another good year. |
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Thanks Desmond.
Been looking on the racing forum to see how Cue Card had got on, but no one has posted anything. Wasn't expecting him to win today. I''m just very relieved he got round safely. Did he look to jump nicely for his new jockey? Hello Rick  |
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I wonder if it will transpire that Hinterland burst a blood vessel again...
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hey
he jumped well, just got tired and the trip was too short |
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Thanks, Rick
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Yes, just not fully wound up. Will just have to settle for winning the Betfair, King George and Gold Cup this season
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wd Shockster, I'd him down as pick of the rest. I'd imagine Hinterland burst again.
But how did Cue Card go forr 13/8f !! I mean when will people learn. I was in meetings all day but would have laid him had I seen it go that short. I backed him last year and learnt my lesson. |
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Nice day and the support for Cue Card pushed the price out. According to RP Hinterland did burst and has to be an iffy proposition going forward. CV You're right about exposed top weights in these handicaps, they really have it all to do against second season (unexposed) horses who have yet to peak. We all have our favourites though and sentiment sometimes clouds the judgement and fingers will be burnt.
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I remember the superb Twist Magic also failing to win under top weight three times and he was top class going right handed too. It's just a huge ask to shift that weight fto.
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And I fell into the Twist Magic trap
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Amazed by Balder's SP. He must have needed the run yesterday.
Suspicions confirmed with Hinterland. |