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harchibald
01 Nov 14 17:36
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Date Joined: 30 Sep 01
| Topic/replies: 592 | Blogger: harchibald's blog
Very early but no forum on here and entries out this week.

Court by Surprise a likely starter for Lavelle however, rain forecast in the area for the whole week so ground unlikely to suit.

Who thinks what heads here ?
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Report harchibald November 3, 2014 6:34 PM GMT
NO.    HORSE    AGE    WGT    TRAINER RTF%    JOCKEY    OR    TS    RPR
1    3FPP-2    According To Trev18      8        David Bridgwater        130    93    135
2    6P79-8    Ackertac21      9        Tim Vaughan        136    115    145
3    42PP-3    Alfie Spinner21    9        Nick Williams        127    113    134
4    1302-9    Bennys Mist21      8        Venetia Williams        139    132    143
5    F1132-    Benvolio258      7        Paul Nicholls        139    128    147
6    3265-1    Court By Surprise18    9        Emma Lavelle        138    97    142
7    P1/1P1    Creevytennant60      10        Fergal O´Brien        139    132    142
8    211P1-    Dare To Endeavour197    7        Tom George        138    122    142
9    2-1223    Deciding Moment24      8        Ben De Haan        132    90    136
10    41-5F5    Duke Of Lucca21      9        Philip Hobbs        141    89    147
11    5056-6    Golden Chieftain21      9        Colin Tizzard        134    93    142
12    P64-23    Handy Andy28    8        Colin Tizzard        129    106    132
13    4112P-    Ifyousayso205    7        Tom George        130    120    136
14    21476-    Just A Par218    7        Paul Nicholls        143    131    155
15    1-1122    Lamb Or Cod22      7        Philip Hobbs        144    126    146
16    1-29P0    Lamboro Lad7    9        Peter Bowen        129    103    133
17    9PP-17    Mart Lane21    9        Dr Richard Newland        140    115    141
18    PF050-    Opening Batsman196      8        Harry Fry        136    71    97
19    5P7261    Pantxoa13      7        Alan King        139    116    149
20    84PF-    Saint Are217      8        Tom George        129    -1    138
21    786U-2    Standing Ovation21      7        David Pipe        131    99    136
22    F11-11    The Young Master22      5        Neil Mulholland        130    67    133
23    121135    Workbench21    6        Dan Skelton        131    110    134
Report harchibald November 3, 2014 6:34 PM GMT
Lots to get stuck into here ...
Report CVByrne November 3, 2014 7:07 PM GMT
Can't wait for Saturday, I'm part of Harry Fry Racing Club and we've got Blue Buttons running in the mares h/c hurdle. The 12th man syndicate who own Opening Batsman will be there too. We're all headed down pretty early and it'll be some day if either of them win.

I'd keep an eye on the betting come Saturday. Mischief
Report harchibald November 3, 2014 8:52 PM GMT
Very interesting, I will be in the restaurant with the Mrs.

Is Opening Batsman 'back' then ? Very tempting mark if he turns up ... but that's one of the biggest IF's ever ...

I've a shortlist -

Benvolio
Dare to Endevour
Golden Chieftain
Standing Ovation
(Opening Batsman)
Report CVByrne November 3, 2014 9:05 PM GMT
Blinkers had him run well at Sandown the last day for a long way. He has form at Wincanton too and 136 is a very good mark if he can bounce back this season. I'll hold any bets until Saturday and see what's said. We think Blue Buttons is on a good mark of 126 and hope she can emulate Highland Retreat and win the h/c hurdle. This race has been the plan since she came back in and she's very well.
Report harchibald November 3, 2014 9:29 PM GMT
Thanks CV and I wish you all the very best with BB. Just watched the OB Sandown race and he just faded out of it at the Pond Fence. Harry can get them ready first time out no doubt - why did his form drop off so dramatically though ?
Report ReaseHeath November 3, 2014 10:08 PM GMT
will look in detail nearer the time but agree Golden Chieftain is back on a workable mark and ran well for a long way at Cheltenham the other week, Team Tizz not exactly firing in the winners though.

I chanced OB at Sandown and was quite hopeful for a long way, at first glance this does n't look as good a contest but it's guess work really as to whether he can recapture his old form so the price needs to be commensurate with that.

I find it really difficult this time of year, these are largely seasoned handicappers but it's hard to know how which ones will run well, a quick calculation shows 10 of the 23 entrants have at least one F,P or U in their last three starts.

Good luck with yours, CV - will watch with interest.
Report CVByrne November 3, 2014 10:16 PM GMT
Cheers RH. Looking forward to the day out.

Golden Chieftan & Ackertac are the two I'm looking at along with Opening Batsman. Both ran well for a long way fto. I'll hold fire till the day though.
Report sintonian November 4, 2014 6:19 AM GMT
Is the betting out yet?
Report ReaseHeath November 4, 2014 9:20 AM GMT
could n't see anything sint, only Elite Hurdle priced so far
Report harchibald November 5, 2014 8:28 PM GMT
Press out today in the Racing Post Weekender - I will summarise.

Kealey -

Puts up Standing Ovation as his selection. Writes off Just a Par, said Benvolio out of love with the game. Lavelle horse dangerous but too high a mark. Fry horse could be the danger watch the betting. Golden Chieftain highly tried but jumps badly and couldn't hack it here 2 years ago. Likes the Pipe horse a lot.

Heyhoe - (it is Malcolm isn't it ? )

He said he likes the Mulholland horse The Young Master. That is his selection. Again Fry horse could be the danger. Er, can't remember too much else about it.

That was about it. Currently the race is WIDE open for me ... I really would like to get this one right.

Could tell you what else he said about the Elite hurdle but focusing on this race.

Thanks
Report harchibald November 7, 2014 11:32 AM GMT
They're jocked up
Report harchibald November 7, 2014 11:34 AM GMT
21476-    Just A Par218 p    7    11-12    Paul Nicholls63    Sam Twiston-Davies    143    133    157
2    5P7261    Pantxoa13      7    11-12    Alan King64    Wayne Hutchinson    143    118    151
3    41-5F5    Duke Of Lucca21 tb      9    11-10    Philip Hobbs69    Richard Johnson    141    93    151
4    P1/1P1    Creevytennant60      10    11-8    Fergal O´Brien58    Alain Cawley    139    138    148
5    1302-9    Bennys Mist21 h      8    11-8    Venetia Williams20    Liam Treadwell    139    138    149
6    F1132-    Benvolio258      7    11-8    Paul Nicholls63    Sean Bowen7    139    134    153
7    211P1-    Dare To Endeavour197    7    11-7    Tom George50    Paddy Brennan    138    129    149
8    3265-1    Court By Surprise18    9    11-7    Emma Lavelle38    Daryl Jacob    138    104    149
9    6P79-8    Ackertac21 b      9    11-5    Tim Vaughan55    Alan Johns7    136    124    154
10    PF050-    Opening Batsman196 tp     8    11-5    Harry Fry100    Noel Fehily    136    80    106
11    5056-6    Golden Chieftain21 tp     9    11-3    Colin Tizzard58    Brendan Powell    134    104    153
12    2-1223    Deciding Moment24 t      8    11-1    Ben De Haan    Jack Doyle    132    103    149
13    786U-2    Standing Ovation21 t     7    11-0    David Pipe61    Tom Scudamore    131    113    150
14    121135    Workbench21 t    6    11-0    Dan Skelton56    Harry Skelton    131    124    148
15    4112P-    Ifyousayso205 t    7    10-13    Tom George50        130    135    151
16    3FPP-2    According To Trev18      8    10-13    David Bridgwater75    Jake Hodson7    130    108    150
17    F11-11    The Young Master22 p      5    10-13    Neil Mulholland50    Barry Geraghty    130    82    148
18    42PP-3    Alfie Spinner21    9    10-10    Nick Williams20    Adam Wedge    127    131    152
Report harchibald November 7, 2014 11:34 AM GMT
This in my candid opinion, looks like a race you could do your absolute boll ox on
Report harchibald November 7, 2014 11:35 AM GMT
So many stand their ground.
Report boy wonder 07 November 7, 2014 5:28 PM GMT
two bets for me standing ovation 7/1 and benvolio 12/1 both gtd
Report alleged22 November 7, 2014 7:01 PM GMT
gone for standing ovation meself aswell
Report shockster November 7, 2014 7:49 PM GMT
In these type of races I like to find if possible a less exposed hcp horse.  If Just A Par was known to be spot on I might take a chance on him.  He kept top company in Novice Chases last year, but was basically disappointing. However, this is more his bag and only slightly over a stone from top to bottom weight. It is pretty difficult though to back PFN horses first time up at present and for that reason I will leave him. The other 2nd season chasers don't inspire me either.  Therefore I'll wait until nearer to the race and see what the ground is like.  If the rain doesn't get into the ground I'll Chance Court by Surprise and hope he can build on his Exeter success. Alternatively and mentioned by CV earlier Ackertac has to be backed at 33/1 with a 7lb claimer on board.  He was only btn 14l behind Holywell at the festival and is a stone lower in the weights with the riders allowance.  That makes him a stone better off with Standing Ovation for 2 lengths.  Standing Ovation 13/2, Ackertac 33/1.  I'll take my chance.  Good luck.
Report Ibrahima Sonko November 7, 2014 9:02 PM GMT
Just A Par has been brutally treated by the handicapper, trained by a lesser name he could be off 135 here. Im not saying he wont prove to be very good but he has been handed a rating of 145+ for beating Third Intention. Reminds me of 1833 who was crucified for beating nothing.

Duke Of Lucca for me at his price 25/1.
Report ReaseHeath November 7, 2014 11:01 PM GMT
yes, Duke of Lucca appeals to me also but I'm a bit worried about the rain (I think it could inconvenience one or two of these).

Anyway likely to stick with Golden Chieftain and Opening Batsman (if he is going to recapture his best form it will surely be now as stable form is startlingly good)ew but will wait on the weather.
Report alleged22 November 7, 2014 11:23 PM GMT
im a great believer in horses for courses and this is not Cheltenham, Standing ovation e/w 4 places is a steal imo
Report judorick November 7, 2014 11:47 PM GMT
latest going report was good to soft, good in places

been waiting for Alfie Spinner to get proper soft going, so will be looking to see if the rain arrives

he ran second to Standing Ovation in this last year and is 10lb better off this time, will have needed his reappearance at Cheltenham so could run big here

but needs it soft or heavy in order to win
Report sageform November 8, 2014 8:01 AM GMT
Almost certainly going to be very testing ground.
Report Ibrahima Sonko November 8, 2014 9:55 AM GMT
Cant remember the last time it was testing at wincanton ?
Report judorick November 8, 2014 10:09 AM GMT
raining hard currently but it remains to be seen what the true state of the going will be - leaving betting till I know

yesterday the going stick said good to soft, good in places
Report barnesey November 8, 2014 10:21 AM GMT
Gone for 2 in this race Alfie spinner each way and Ackertac each way good luck all
Report ReaseHeath November 8, 2014 12:15 PM GMT
CoC just said they've only had 2mm this morning and still a mixture of Good and Good to Soft.

Will still wait and see how first couple of races go before getting involved...
Report ReaseHeath November 8, 2014 1:15 PM GMT
ground looks decent enough so have gone with Duke Of Lucca 25/1 ew and Golden Chieftain 11/1 ew (if you fancy the latter, you have to fancy the former on their latest running).

Will leave Opening Batsman as too much guesswork involved...

We know what happens next!!

Good luck, all...
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