Horse Antepost

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29 Oct 14 11:57
Date Joined: 20 Aug 07
| Topic/replies: 5,105 | Blogger: BJG's blog

Horse    Age    Owner    Trainer

First Lieutenant (IRE)    9    Gigginstown House Stud    M. F. Morris

Harry Topper (GB)    7    Mr A. N. Solomons    Kim Bailey

Champagne Fever (IRE)    7    Mrs S. Ricci    W. P. Mullins

Lyreen Legend (IRE)    7    Lyreen Syndicate    D. T. Hughes

Triolo d'Alene (FR)    7    Mr & Mrs Sandy Orr    Nicky Henderson

Houblon des Obeaux (FR)    7    Mrs Julian Blackwell    Venetia Williams

Rocky Creek (IRE)    8    The Johnson & Stewart Families    Paul Nicholls

Medermit (FR)    10    The Dunkley & Reilly Partnership    Alan King

Ballycasey (IRE)    7    Mrs S. Ricci    W. P. Mullins

Katenko (FR)    8    Mr A. Brooks    Venetia Williams

Smad Place (FR)    7    Mrs Peter Andrews    Alan King

Ballynagour (IRE)    8    Mr Allan Stennett    David Pipe

Fingal Bay (IRE)    8    Mrs R. J. Skan    Philip Hobbs

Bury Parade (IRE)    8    HighclereThoroughbredRacing- Bury Parade    Paul Nicholls

Hadrian's Approach (IRE)    7    Mr & Mrs R. Kelvin-Hughes    Nicky Henderson

Vino Griego (FR)    9    Mr C. E. Stedman    Gary Moore

Don Cossack (GER)    7    Gigginstown House Stud    Gordon Elliott

Unioniste (FR)    6    Mr J. Hales    Paul Nicholls

Walkon (FR)    9    McNeill Family    Alan King

The Romford Pele (IRE)    7    Trembath & Outhart    Rebecca Curtis

Black Thunder (FR)    7    Donlon, MacDonald, Fulton & Webb    Paul Nicholls

Theatre Guide (IRE)    7    Mrs Jean R. Bishop    Colin Tizzard

Le Bec (FR)    6    Tim Syder    Emma Lavelle

Restless Harry (GB)    10    Mr R. G. Whitehead    Robin Dickin

Easter Meteor (GB)    8    Mr & Mrs S. C. Willes    David Pipe

Sam Winner (FR)    7    Mrs Angela Yeoman    Paul Nicholls

Monbeg Dude (IRE)    9    Oydunow    Michael Scudamore

Buywise (IRE)    7    Mr T. Hywel Jones    Evan Williams

Annacotty (IRE)    6    Mrs Peter Prowting    Martin Keighley

Wiesentraum (GER)    8    G. Pascoe & S. Brewer    Lucy Wadham

Mendip Express (IRE)    8    The Mendip Syndicate    Harry Fry

Lamb Or Cod (IRE)    7    Mr Terry Warner    Philip Hobbs

Many Clouds (IRE)    7    Mr Trevor Hemmings    Oliver Sherwood

Easter Day (FR)    6    B. Fulton, Broughton Thermal Insulation    Paul Nicholls

Present View (GB)    6    Sir Chips Keswick    Jamie Snowden

Just A Par (IRE)    7    Paul K. Barber & C. G. Roach    Paul Nicholls

Djakadam (FR)    5    Mrs S. Ricci    W. P. Mullins

Court In Motion (IRE)    9    Mr N. Mustoe    Emma Lavelle

Roalco de Farges (FR)    9    The Brushmakers    Philip Hobbs

Wychwoods Brook (GB)    8    Kevin & Anne Glastonbury    Evan Williams

Midnight Prayer (GB)    9    The Legends Partnership    Alan King

The Druids Nephew (IRE)    7    The Stonehenge Druids    Neil Mulholland

Mountainous (IRE)    9    Walters Plant Hire & James & Jean Potter    Richard Lee

Via Sundown (FR)    6    The Old Brokers    Gary Moore

Knock A Hand (IRE)    9    Mr Alan Halsall    Richard Lee

Pantxoa (FR)    7    Mrs June Watts    Alan King

Mullaghanoe River (IRE)    6    Mrs Patricia Hunt    Noel Meade

Victors Serenade (IRE)    9    Michael & Angela Bone    Anthony Honeyball

Gevrey Chambertin (FR)    6    Roger Stanley & Yvonne Reynolds III    David Pipe

Merry King (IRE)    7    Mr F. Gillespie    Jonjo O'Neill

Edmund Kean (IRE)    7    Walters Plant Hire & James & Jean Potter    Peter Bowen

Gallant Oscar (IRE)    8    Mr G. Kelly    A. J. Martin

What A Warrior (IRE)    7    Mr & Mrs Gordon Pink    Dan Skelton

Handy Andy (IRE)    8    Brocade Racing    Colin Tizzard

Le Reve (IRE)    6    Mr P. H. Betts    Lucy Wadham

Tour des Champs (FR)    7    Mr H. R. Mould    Nigel Twiston-Davies

Saroque (IRE)    7    Mr A. Brooks    Venetia Williams

The Paparrazi Kid (IRE)    7    Byerley Thoroughbred Racing    W. P. Mullins
Pause Switch to Standard View *THE HENNESSY GOLD CUP*
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Report custardcream64 November 24, 2014 6:01 PM GMT
Midnight Prayer off a low weight could go well at a decent price if showing up. Fav is a very silly price imo.
Report harry callaghan November 24, 2014 7:26 PM GMT
just started going through these...very disappointed sherwood has managed to land a 7lb penalty for winning a tin pot race at carlisle, it certainly doesn't give the punter much to play with
Report nocturnal November 24, 2014 11:59 PM GMT
Handicap connundrum of class v weight.
Some good cases made already for a few.
Purely on handicapping Merry King looks really well treated,looks to have plenty of stamina and on flatter tracks jumps well.
Second guessing jonjo can be a route to the poorhouse, sneaky suspicion this horse might get some headgear,he travelled really well in 1st time visor at haydock before breaking blood vessel next run.Not sure he needed the 4 mile slog at ayr,however Linehan took the ride with a claim,keen to see whos booked saturday.
Soft ground would be fine,sure to get decent pace,he will be staying on.
Report alleged22 November 25, 2014 8:45 PM GMT
jackadam looks a proper 3 mile chaser to me travelled comfortably in the JLT, agaist 160 animals over a trip to short

shrewd judge to know after 2 miles and a fall the potential that was to come over 6f further Cool
Report alleged22 November 25, 2014 8:47 PM GMT
6f more than the jlt, and after he,d completed 2 miles of said race   Blush
Report alleged22 November 25, 2014 8:52 PM GMT

  29 Oct 14 15:40 
Joined:   20 Aug 07      | Topic/replies: 29,741  | Blogger: BJG's blog   

I like Djakadam but anyone backin at single figs this far out is off their rocker imo (hes 8s fav)

Has never won over further than 2m5 - has never won on ground with good in the description(may nt be but still), has never won in a field with a double digit amount runners (has fallen and unseated on both occassions that he has run with more than 10 runners) so may nt like horses around him

^^^^ I totally agree with this comment that was posted 27 days agoLove, and now its 4-1 Surprised
Report ReaseHeath November 25, 2014 9:22 PM GMT
just looking through the JLT result, he was n't even particularly fancied for that...

went off at 14/1, 9th in the market out of 12 and fell four out so too early to know what would've happened.

Therefore the price can only be a function of the confidence of his connections given that he's not jumped a fence in public since- he might win, he might be a superstar but I think the great thing if you're a punter in this race is that if you're taking him on you're not going to be beating yourself up afterwards if he wins and you lose.
Report alleged22 November 25, 2014 9:44 PM GMT
imo the price is all about the weight to be carried, rather than conections comments or form or his age or his trainer or the fact its coming from Ireland.

place lay imo
Report alleged22 November 25, 2014 9:46 PM GMT
im not a layer so disregard that last statement
Report ReaseHeath November 25, 2014 10:03 PM GMT
if it's just about the weight then surely there's one or two other potentially progressive horses in the race who must therefore be overpriced - Le Reve and Via Sundown for example...
Report ashleigh November 25, 2014 10:07 PM GMT
wonder who will ride smad place with w hutchinson confirmed as out injured. 
all quiet on the choc thornton return.
Report ReaseHeath November 25, 2014 10:16 PM GMT
well, I can't see a JPM horse in the race, AP is back tomorrow and will presumably be at Newbury to ride More Of That.

Jonjo might offer him the ride on Merry King I suppose but he's not ridden MK the last twice.
Report alleged22 November 25, 2014 10:17 PM GMT
there sure are rease but which one?
Report ReaseHeath November 25, 2014 10:20 PM GMT
I know, mate - quite fancy Ballynagour myself but he's got plenty of weight, it's trappy as per...
Report Ibrahima Sonko November 25, 2014 10:57 PM GMT
Been raining lightly all day in Newbury, i was going to treat the ground as soft but it wont be far off heavy on the day.

The good thing about jump racing is that the clerks cant change the ground in the aid of bookmakers Grin

I think i will be able to remove the doubtful stayers if the rain continues.
Report Addictedtowinning November 25, 2014 11:15 PM GMT
ReaseHeath makes a number of good points about the JLT. The Hennesey is a race for real 3 mile plus stayers and requires solid jumping in a big field. Not convinced that Djakadam has these qualities but I am certain that he would be double figures if trained by anybody else and is no value at the price. So level stakes on Smad Place and Many Clouds and if Djakadam wins then so be it.
Report Mr Eboue November 26, 2014 12:08 AM GMT
If he was trained by anyone other than Mullins the beast would be a 20/1 shot.
Report shockster November 26, 2014 9:52 AM GMT
I've gone over this now a few times and the way I see it is quite clear. 

Djakadam could be the fly in ointment as we just don't know about him.  He does look well weighted but there are too many questions to be answered to back him at 4/1 or perhaps shorter. 

The next 3 in the market are the horses that interest me most.  Smad Place as I have mentioned before is my personal favourite.  Has won on first appearance of season twice out of 4 attempts and would have been 3 out of 4 but for falling at the last last season when well clear.  He won at this meeting in the 4yo hurdle in 2010 and on his only other appearance at the track last February when he beat Sam Winner (won at Chelt 2 weeks ago over 3m3f) over 3m on heavy, so 2 from 2 course form.  Only beaten once when completing in chases when 2nd in RSA.  155 is ok if you believe he is a Gold Cup horse as would need to be 165/170 to be in with a chance.

Many clouds off 151 reads well on a line through O'faolains Boy, but would have been of real interest off 144 if he had not raced at Carlisle 4 weeks ago.  It also appears his best form is going right handed, but again if he is a Gold Cup horses 151 is a winable mark.

Fingal Bay also has to be of interest off 153 if his lack of experience over fences can be overcome. His 2nd behind Dynaste if taken literally has him thrown in here, but lots of runners on only his 4th chase start is a worry, but it would not be a great surprise if he won IMO.

The rest look pretty exposed to me or not good enough. Ballynagour IF he stayed would be a possibility but it's a big IF.  Black Thunder could be in the mix if he runs but Nicholls says he had a hard race at Ascot and has been put up 6lb.  If any of the 3 mentioned initially are Gold cup class then I can't see any of the lower weights being anywhere near good enough even in receipt of weight.

Smad Place just, for me with Fingal Bay and Many Clouds just behind.
Report dementia November 26, 2014 11:01 AM GMT
ANNACOTTY and VIA SUNDOWN at big prices for me. Both have won on soft going, both had a recent run, both have some decent form and both could be improvers. Speculative i know but only small stakes for a bit of fun.
Report Angel Gabrial November 26, 2014 11:08 AM GMT
Djakadam was going no better than Sizing Gold who ended up beaten 24L in the JLT.

At the time of the fall there was plenty of racing left and his previous novice form was nothing special. Possibly he would have been outpaced and finished quite  a way behind.

I think Ricci has his tongue in cheek when says he was the winner so far out and that he will be a 160 chaser. Bright New Dawn is nothing special and was giving Djakadam  plenty of weight when staying within a few lengths of him. He maybe a 150 horse in my eyes but he only 5 and is error prone. No chance should he be a 4/1 poke.

Smad Place and Fingal Bay to fight this one out.
Report shockster November 26, 2014 12:17 PM GMT
GOING: Hurdle - HEAVY (Soft in places); Chase - SOFT (Heavy in places) (GoingStick 5.1)
Report ReaseHeath November 26, 2014 12:33 PM GMT
thanks, in other news Denis O'Regan rides Smad Place (Tom Bellamy on Midnight Prayer for same stable)
Report Can't Catch Me November 26, 2014 1:38 PM GMT
Really, really like Smad Place for this and have a good few bob on at 7-1 NRNB. Agree with all the comments re Djakadam... a big talking horse but a crazy price on what he has achieved and its a big step up in heavy ground.

Smad Place at 20-1 for the Gold Cup also looks great value and he could be half that by Sunday. Watched the re-run of the RSA again this morning, and it really does look top class form with the front two pulling so far clear.
Report tim6 November 26, 2014 4:36 PM GMT
Think Rocky Creek has a big chance and was aimed at this by Nicholls, Look at how much Silvi Conti improved after his run think same will be said about rocky seems to be Nicholls MO these days
Report boy wonder 07 November 26, 2014 4:43 PM GMT
I bet rocky creek last year that was probably his chance 3lb higher in hcp this time and 5lb more on his back
Report Angel Gabrial November 26, 2014 5:29 PM GMT
Rocky Creek didn`t have a prep run last year boy wonder. The race at Down Royal would be a good pipe opener for the season.
Report sageform November 26, 2014 5:44 PM GMT
I am in two minds on Rocky Creek. His run at Down Royal might have got him fit, but I am never keen on backing horses that have been placed in a National back over park fences.
Report Flashy November 26, 2014 7:15 PM GMT
Smad Place should be fav in my opinion. His form is rock solid - ground, trip, course all fine. Also fulfills all of the stats for the usual winner of the race. will be hard to beat.
Report Angel Gabrial November 26, 2014 7:17 PM GMT
When you say placed, you don`t mean placed do you.Or do you? 5th
Report Angel Gabrial November 26, 2014 7:18 PM GMT
Report shockster November 26, 2014 7:27 PM GMT
I just can't have Rocky Creek and I might be proved wrong, but this seems a stronger race than last year and he's 5lb higher.  He certainly doesn't strike me as a Gold Cup winner and if any of Smad Place, Fingal Bay, Many Clouds or even Djakadam which are potentially Gold Cup horses prove to be so, then Rocky Creek faces an impossible task in giving them all weight in this race.  He should run a good honest race but I will be very surprised if at least a couple don't beat him at these weights.
Report saxon farm November 26, 2014 7:34 PM GMT
FWIW I think Unioniste is a big price 25-1 NRNB with Spoylesports.
Report filbert street November 26, 2014 7:53 PM GMT
Rocky Creek would have won last year if we had this years going Triolo de alene a good ground horse so fwiw i think 5lbs extra no problem its just he has to give fav so much weight who is thrown in on 142 according to experts. But I am going for rocky to give a Denman like performance he is guaranteed to love the ground top jockey/trainer perfect trip/course good jumper will come on for down royal a ton whats not to like
Report ReaseHeath November 26, 2014 8:45 PM GMT
theoretically at least, the ground should help the dour stayers which would bring the likes of Rocky Creek, Merry King and Midnight Prayer into contention.

I agree Unioniste is interesting too, looks like he's been targeted at the race, still only 6yo so open to improvement, won a decent Cheltenham handicap as 4yo, a good handicap at Aintree last season and has a novice chase win at Newbury over 3 miles, by Dom Alco so ground and trip should suit.

Going back to Ballynagour, he did win a PTP over 3 miles as 4yo so that offers some positive indication he might stay.

So leaning towards small speculative ew punts on Ballynagour and Unioniste at the moment but I also agree Smad Place particularly has very solid credentials for this so will wait and see what the prices are on Saturday morning...
Report Ibrahima Sonko November 26, 2014 9:57 PM GMT
Noel Fehily booked for Unioniste, which is a big plus. He will certainly love the ground.
Report sageform November 27, 2014 9:10 AM GMT
Angel, sorry I thought he was placed higher than fifth until I looked back. I now remember that I backed the fifth and sixth finishers for a place.Sad It doesn't change my view that any horse that is fighting out the last mile of a Grand National has a very hard race.
Report metro john November 27, 2014 9:39 AM GMT
Merry Kingredients will like ground and trip,looks the e/with pick at the prices.
Report metro john November 27, 2014 9:41 AM GMT
Always fun posting on your mobile Excited
Report bazzar November 27, 2014 10:16 AM GMT
IBRAHIM, where did you see that FEHILY had been booked
to ride UNIONISTE?
Report shockster November 27, 2014 10:31 AM GMT
On Twitter last night Bazzar.
Report bazzar November 27, 2014 11:16 AM GMT
Thanks shockster, don't use twitter so not up to date.
Report shockster November 27, 2014 11:29 AM GMT
Final Decs - 19 Runners

Horse    Age    Owner    Trainer
Houblon des Obeaux (FR)    7    Mrs Julian Blackwell    Venetia Williams
Triolo d’Alene (FR)    7    Mr & Mrs Sandy Orr    Nicky Henderson
Rocky Creek (IRE)    8    The Johnson & Stewart Families    Paul Nicholls
Ballynagour (IRE)    8    Mr Allan Stennett    David Pipe
Smad Place (FR)    7    Mrs Peter Andrews    Alan King
Fingal Bay (IRE)    8    Mrs R. J. Skan    Philip Hobbs
Vino Griego (FR)    9    Mr C. E. Stedman    Gary Moore
Many Clouds (IRE)    7    Mr Trevor Hemmings    Oliver Sherwood
Unioniste (FR)    6    Mr J. Hales    Paul Nicholls
Monbeg Dude (IRE)    9    Oydunow    Michael Scudamore
Annacotty (IRE)    6    Mrs Peter Prowting    Martin Keighley
What A Warrior (IRE)    7    Mr & Mrs Gordon Pink    Dan Skelton
Djakadam (FR)    5    Mrs S. Ricci    W. P. Mullins
The Druids Nephew (IRE)    7    The Stonehenge Druids    Neil Mulholland
Wychwoods Brook (GB)    8    Kevin & Anne Glastonbury    Evan Williams
Midnight Prayer (GB)    9    The Legends Partnership    Alan King
Via Sundown (FR)    6    The Old Brokers    Gary Moore
Le Reve (IRE)    6    Mr P. H. Betts    Lucy Wadham
Merry King (IRE)    7    Mr F. Gillespie    Jonjo O’Neill
Report SEATHESTARS....NO1 November 27, 2014 6:05 PM GMT

Now I know I usually back one or two in these lol and this one is none different lol but I have been looking for a jackpot horse as I always do and have picked this lad out!

has had a prep, need his first run last season, ground against him in the rsa and not knocked about beaten 42 lengths by o'faolains boy, won a race this time last season easy 10l win on bridle at 12/1 green flag behind had via sundown behind 2nd run of last season which was also a win fto this season beat 5 lengths in a non handicap, i find that interesting
Report GI MAC November 27, 2014 7:00 PM GMT
There's a lot to like about Annacotty, will love the ground and the extra distance could bring some improvement, blinkers back on. There are worse 25/1 shots. No mentions for Via Sundown, think he might be under rated, progressive type, and another who'll love the ground.
Report Ibrahima Sonko November 27, 2014 7:05 PM GMT
The trainers form is a major concern.
Report SEATHESTARS....NO1 November 27, 2014 7:11 PM GMT
Yes, as via sundown was begin him on one occasion and has some form he I one for smaller stakes as feel you can't ever back one without the other in these sorts of races as one piece of form ties in with the other. And could be progressive.

Who's trainer do you talk of IS?
Report Ibrahima Sonko November 27, 2014 7:15 PM GMT
M Keighley, even his stable stars have been well beaten this season
Report GI MAC November 27, 2014 7:21 PM GMT
SETHESTARS your gonna have to translate that last post!

Keighley form a worry, but in stable tour on Monday says Annacotty in great form fwiw.
Report slash. November 27, 2014 7:33 PM GMT
Unioniste an smash place for me can't wait
Report SEATHESTARS....NO1 November 27, 2014 8:17 PM GMT
Ive backed smad place 8/1, rocky creek 10/1 & unioniste 25/1 so far. Intention is to add annacotti tomorrow morning to the list. Basically looking for 33s for a cash bet (in shop) but will accept 28s. If still 34-38s on here he will be sat morn somewhere some point.

Translation to above post is and put simpler I always usually just follow the markets right, never normally now a days anyways do I look at form but fancied a little change here and thought add take a little look.I have been following the ante-post market however had no bet as felt apart from the fav when 8-10/1 there has been no edge. (fwiw I don't and have never fancied the jolly for anything anyways).
I start from the bottom of the card, working my way up looking for anything I feel could be a long term plan by stable/connections. (I believe trainers always know what they have got)and the first one that sprang to the eye was via sundown. Initially I thought the yard have probably lost sire de grugy for the season and what better compensation would be if this beast was to prevail, so I mull him over, he has a couple of pieces of form that with improvement which isn't out of the question and a light weight might give it a chance. So I then find Annacotty and the more I look at his form the more confident of him I become. Tbh wish I never bothered. I am a lazy bettor of horses these days pmsl (apart from antepost) I let you guys do the hard work and then get prices that have already gone on a Saturday morning lol.

I know via sundown trainer has got two in and stable jock I on other but unless money comes in not touching him.

Sorry, I rattle on a bit Blush
Report GI MAC November 27, 2014 8:49 PM GMT
a bit more sense! I wouldn't let the fact Jamie being on the other one put you off Via Sundown, Joshua always rides him. A bit of money for it would be nice to see, I backed it a wee while back at 33/1, think we could see bigger than that on the day. I believe he will run a decent race if it stays soft / heavy. He's the outsider I like, think Smad is the one to beat, more so with current stable form.
Report the bloob November 27, 2014 8:53 PM GMT
glad I took 28/1 on Unioniste yesterday
Report penzance November 27, 2014 9:01 PM GMT
like Ballynagour and Wychwood Brook.E/W.
Both around the 20-25s mark.
Report ACStafford November 27, 2014 9:16 PM GMT
Had a very small bet at 38 on Unioniste. Wish I'd gone bigger but when something looks too good to be true it usually is in my experience, so I wanted to wait for NRNB. Hoping he drifts back out on the day, as the only one that Nicholls seems to be talking about is Rocky Creek. I'll add either Smad Place or Fingal Bay too. Haven't decided which one yet. The form book is telling me Smad Place, but I'm finding it difficult to oppose Hobbs.
Report Ibrahima Sonko November 27, 2014 9:39 PM GMT
I love fingal bay but if he is any good and equal to his hurdle rating over fences why isnt he entered in the king george ?
Report spyker November 27, 2014 10:56 PM GMT
I like Annacoty and Unioniste - Keighley looks to have some decent runners tomorrow so will stick them in multiples in anticipation of an, ahem, return to form and plunge on Annacoty.......
Report brandyontherocks November 28, 2014 7:07 AM GMT
Fingal Bay is running off 153, the same mark he has over hurdles. So he is going to have to improve on what he shown so far to figure here.
Of course that is possible as he is still lightly raced and the Hobbs team in such good form. But he isn't thrown in on hurdles form.
Report dunlaying November 28, 2014 11:55 AM GMT
One can make out a case for most of them but for a speculative e/w punt what about Le Reve?
He has a recent winning run under his belt and although a conservative assessment of that form makes him out to be no better than fairly treated he could be a lot better. The runner up that day ,Saroque, held an entry for this very race.
33/1 and drifting when last I looked.
Unioniste may find it too hard a task first time up but he must be respected.
Report SEATHESTARS....NO1 November 28, 2014 3:07 PM GMT
Thats me backed all i want to now, Smad Place 8/1, Rocky Creek 10/1, Unioniste 25/1, Annacotty 25/1, Monbeg Dude 25/1 and Midnight Prayer 25/1.

I will only add more if the prices are right or bigger than on here in shops tomorrow morning. I.e The Druids Nephew might go 12s somewhere as a push out, if he does, I will be on Tongue Out
Report Ibrahima Sonko November 28, 2014 4:14 PM GMT
Backed Smad Place & Triolo D'Alene. Even though most people think Triolo is a good ground horse he has won on soft & very soft and is open to improvement being still only 7, he comfortably beat Rocky Creek last season so at the prices he is worth an ew punt.
Report bazzar November 28, 2014 4:46 PM GMT
SEATHESTARS, your post reminds me of racing on TV many years ago,
the presenter was looking for someone who had backed the the of that days DERBY,
they found this woman and interviewed her, he asked how many horses had she backed to find the outsider, she said 16, he looked at her incredulously and said, but there were 17 runners
which one did you leave out , she said the favourite, which by the way had broken it's leg coming down Tattenham hill, he was totally non plussed.
Report SEATHESTARS....NO1 November 28, 2014 5:48 PM GMT
I might have backed half the field by race time Crazy but i 99% of the time always get the value and stake accordingly to price giving the best chance of profit! Silly
Report CVByrne November 28, 2014 6:08 PM GMT
Is anyone saying Djakadams age is why he won't win?

Long Run ran wrongly in the Paddy Power off 158 when he was a 5yo instead of the Hennessy. Can you imagine how easily he would have won that race getting 24lbs from Denman given he beat him later in the season in the Gold Cup off levels by 7l. I mean age is not the same for these French horses as Irish bred Chasers.
Report CVByrne November 28, 2014 6:11 PM GMT
Anyway, my 3 ap bets. Djakadam my main one. Merry King as he is a cliff horse and he'll win a race for me eventually. Hadrians Approach is a n/r.

I think Smad Place I'll get 10/1 at around 10am tomorrow and will go e/w on Rocky Creek as he just can't be out of the 5.
Report Ibrahima Sonko November 28, 2014 6:18 PM GMT
Age means very little, like you said especially with a french bred, i remember a certain Big Bucks running as a 5yo in this and he very nearly won.
Report CVByrne November 28, 2014 6:19 PM GMT
Djakadam - I believe he's chucked in off this mark, he'll end up being over a stone higher rated by the end of the season is my view. But is his price enough value, he was my antepost bet for this but I would also take him @ 6/1 or bigger on the day. I wouldn't be surprised if Ruby takes it up a long way from home, the horse has a huge stride and a light weight and a master at judging it from the front.

Smad Place - The RSA is always a good pointer for this race, King had a treble on Thusday and his stable are in form. Smad has won on heavy ground at this track last season, with Sam Winner behind him. That horse has gone on this season to show he was better than his mark. Smad will do similar.

Fingal Bay - Hasn't jumped a fence in 2 years and it's tough to be bullish with him here at his current odds. Might prove to be on a good mark but don't think this is the race for him to return to fences.

May Clouds - He was right in the mix for this in my book until he won lto. I don't understand why they went to win that tbh. He's 7lbs higher now and 11-6 instead of 10-13 is the result. Add to that he was tipped p with Pricewise and the value isn't there now.

Rocky Creek - Will not be out of the places. Could easily win here and will not be stopping at any point. He has a first time tongue tie fitted and maybe that's going to eek out improvement. Big Player

The Druids Nephew - I'd be very surprised if he proved good enough to win this. Not to mention his single figure odds are of no appeal.

Merry King - Ah my cliff horse and already backed. Suffice to say he'll plug on for a place at the least. There is a big handicap in him and this type of slog is right up his street. I think the light weight is also a big asset in this ground. Cheeck pieces are back on and I think they will improve him.

Unioniste - Stamina is his forte and this slog will suit him. I think he is a very talented horse in his conditions and is a national type. It's hard to gauge how he will run here fto though. A danger.

Monbeg Dude - He's handicapped up to the hilt off 146, would be a huge effort to win this. Could be ridden for a place.

Triolo D'Alene - Needs good ground, running here to lower mark.

Ballynagour - Surely too much weight to try this extended trip on this type of ground. But he runs very well fresh so if he stays is a danger.

Midnight Prayer - Wouldn't be a massive shock if he won this, it'll be a huge test of stamina and this horse has it in spades having won the 4 miler. King yard in form. One for an e/w as he'll plug on past beaten horses at the least.

Annacotty - Loves this ground and has been aimed at this. Blinkers back on. Don't know what to make of him tbh.

What a Warrior - Who knows if there is more improvement in him, but this is a massive step up in and he's up against it.

Houblon Des Obeaux - Handicapped up to the hilt now

Le Reve - Won well lto but think this is a much too strong test for him.
Report ReaseHeath November 28, 2014 6:40 PM GMT
Mixed messages from Sherwood on the Many Clouds Carlisle race - he said he was so concerned about what might happen to his handicap mark that he rang Phil Smith beforehand - but also said he was n't expecting Many Clouds to win it...

If I was n't having a bet, I'd be cheering Many Clouds on - would be great to have a genuine Gold Cup contender from a smaller UK based stable (no disrespect to Jim Culloty who worked the oracle last year for Ireland or Bridgy but I don't think TGB is ever going to be quite good enough to win it).
Report CVByrne November 28, 2014 6:48 PM GMT
I'd rather Many Clouds not win as conditions are in his favour, he would have been a much bigger price had he avoided being seagulled and if 7lbs lower. I'd be all over him. But just not now at single figures off 11-6
Report stevo1 November 28, 2014 8:33 PM GMT
Cv good luck in trying to get 10/1 Smad Place in morning.
Report alleged22 November 28, 2014 8:47 PM GMT
ive only backed the one unioniste, wish id took the 28,s at the begining of the week, but instead waited and got 20,s after 48 hr decs, I believe the trip is ideal the ground is ideal and being by dom alco wots not to like. Lack of a recent run doesn't bother me he,ll need to be fresh in this ground, the only problem I have is the weight.. if he wins this he,ll have to be considered a gold cup horse, when ideally the GN is the long term aim.... cant see him out the first 4 with the welsh GN next target.
Report Masterminded November 28, 2014 10:41 PM GMT
I have added Unioniste and Fingal Bay earlier in the week but I think Djakadam could run away with it like Strong Flow did. He is extremely well handicapped imo and I don't think 11/2 and above is a bad price. He has plenty to prove still in terms of his reputation but he doesn't need to be the nest Denman or a G1 horse to win tomorrow.
Report Ibrahima Sonko November 28, 2014 10:52 PM GMT
Trying to find negatives re Djakadam.

Ruby chose a different horse at cheltenham, the novice form took a battering from The Paparrazi Kid today.Never won over the trip.

I actually like the horse and i would be a backer at 10/1, just think he has far too many questions to be the fav.
Report festivalfanatic November 28, 2014 11:03 PM GMT
Very competitive and the winner will need both the run of the race and luck in running. Very disappointed with the WPM runners this side of the water so far this season. I like Smad Place,Rocky Creek and Many Clouds though I'd prefer the last named going right handed.

I've plumped for Rocky Creek and I hope he's hard to keep out of the frame.

Report ThunderRoad November 28, 2014 11:07 PM GMT
The problem with Djakadam is that he's only favourite because the Mullins stable rate him highly. But what's that based on? How well he's schooled? How he's strengthened up over the summer? His work on the gallops?

The issue is that none of these give us any indication that he'll stay 27 furlongs under these conditions. He may be working all over Mullins' other 140-150 horses at home, but at the end of the day that gives us no indication of how he'll get on over the extended 3. Trainers will almost never work a horse over much more than 2 miles, so whether he'll stay or not is as much of a mystery to the Mullins yard as to us.

Smad Place and Fingal Bay for me. Both will stay. Both love the ground. Both are on marks they'll eventually outrun. Both stables are confident. Would be surprised if one of them doesn't win.

GL all.
Report Ibrahima Sonko November 28, 2014 11:32 PM GMT
why anyone would back a horse that has already proved to crap, is beyound me.
Report stevo1 November 29, 2014 5:54 AM GMT
Sea, you better hope Fav dont win or you have done your -ollox,nice to see you only backed 6 so far you cutting back? Good luck and enjoy should be decent race, fwiw on Smad Place @13 on here and Fav @6/1.
Report metro john November 29, 2014 9:55 AM GMT
Have bet Merry king and The Druids Nephew conditions fine for both,Merry king can disappoint?
Report CVByrne November 29, 2014 10:41 AM GMT
Added Rocky Creek @ 11/1 and Smad Place @ 7/1.

Going to war with, in order of biggest win to least.

Merry King
Rocky Creek
Smad Place

Good luck all
Report FELTFAIR November 29, 2014 12:06 PM GMT
Backed the top three clock horses each way.

Via Sundown,Midnight Prayer and Rocky Creek.

Wide open but hoping for the best.
Report ReaseHeath November 29, 2014 12:52 PM GMT
gone for Ballynagour 33/1 ew (drift alarming and pleasing in equal measure considering he was generally 20/1 at 5 day dec stage) and Unioniste at 20/1 ew (missed the best price there earlier in the week).

Many plausible winners, good luck all...
Report SEATHESTARS....NO1 November 29, 2014 1:05 PM GMT
Smad Place might start fav Shocked
Report GI MAC November 29, 2014 1:52 PM GMT
^ he will indeed.

Ballynagour and Via Sundown carry my money today, good luck all.
Report PJay November 29, 2014 3:02 PM GMT
Haven't done a lot of work on this but the one I've put my pennies on is Rocky Creek at 13.0. Nicholls in flying form and this one could find the ground more to his liking this year.
Report PJay November 29, 2014 3:06 PM GMT
Rocky not at the races!
Report PJay November 29, 2014 3:13 PM GMT
Well done winners!
Report CVByrne November 29, 2014 3:14 PM GMT
Well that taught me a lesson!!!

Well done winners. Hard to know of Djakadam blew up or didn't stay.
Report PJay November 29, 2014 3:19 PM GMT
Many Clouds will be a popular winner.
Report penzance November 29, 2014 3:50 PM GMT
Report unclepuncle November 29, 2014 4:14 PM GMT
Well done Sint and other backers.Cool

I was on him at big prices for the RSA last year and did look at him when the Hennessey was first priced up but I think the best price was 14/1 which didn't tempt me - then he won at Carlile and shortened further so I left him alone.Cry
Report Facts November 29, 2014 4:21 PM GMT
Well done IS and Sin for putting up the winner
Report Ibrahima Sonko November 29, 2014 4:27 PM GMT
Well done winners.

Sadly i didnt back him even though he was my original choice, put off by the weight rise.
Report ReaseHeath November 29, 2014 6:45 PM GMT
yep, well done winners did n't back him but pleased for connections
Report SEATHESTARS....NO1 November 29, 2014 7:15 PM GMT
CVByrne 29 Nov 14 15:14 Joined: 14 Mar 06 | Topic/replies: 4,111 | Blogger: CVByrne's blog
Well that taught me a lesson!!!


Back to being lazy, following the money, pw and bookies offers again!
Report sintonian November 30, 2014 11:34 AM GMT
Pleaseing scenes :)

Not a fan of Champagne Fever for the KG because I reckon hus jumpibg is dodge but hed make a nice xmas cracker as he's in an ew double with Many Cliyds

Will never understand Djakadams price. He had more questions to answer than Amanda Knox.
Report sintonian November 30, 2014 11:35 AM GMT
Apologies for spelling mistakes..using phone.
Report stevo1 November 30, 2014 7:38 PM GMT
Well done Sint,good to see horse you follow come up with the goods.
Report ReaseHeath November 30, 2014 8:05 PM GMT
some random post race thoughts:

1. The first three were a fair way clear of the rest...

2. Monbeg Dude has run two decent races this season and surely will be a factor in the major staying handicap chases to come (Chepstow,Aintree)

3. Thinking about Djakadam and Ballynagour particularly, I wonder if it's a good idea to run a horse untested over a trip in excess of about 2.5m under rules in this race first time out - ground was testing enough (albeit no worse than proper jumping ground), trip in excess of 3.25m and rivals with a fitness edge - it's a lot to ask (I should factor that thought into my punting too).

4. The weights and measures sometimes mean we/I overlook the obvious - Many Clouds went up 7lbs for winning at Carlisle but in return he got more valuable jumping experience and a boost in fitness and confidence - which turned out to be preferable to being apparently better handicapped but less experienced and less race fit, a very good trade by Sherwood to take the 7lb rise (hindsight on my part of course but worth bearing in mind in future).
Report Angel Gabrial November 30, 2014 8:42 PM GMT
Been busy moving house this weekend and seen no racing but did the runner up/top weight ever go off 50/1 and the fav go off well, so 45 marks lower. It still baffles me.
Report Angel Gabrial November 30, 2014 8:43 PM GMT
Report shockster December 1, 2014 8:55 AM GMT
Back at work after a cracking weekend at Newbury.  Highly recommended if you get the chance of going to the Hennessy weekend. Great meeting and good atmosphere in the town. In my earlier post I narrowed it down to 3 including Many Clouds, but sadly for me went "all in" on Smad Place. Well done winners.
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