Horse Antepost
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Backed Baraweez , and waiting on Cornrow at this stage.
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must be a doubt with baraweez and more so cornrow going on the ground if it stays heavy.
price as tumbled so bit after the lord mayors show but feel CHATEZ should run a big race on the prevailing ground,had a bit on ew at 14s hope it keeps raining. |
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14 was not available this morning when I looked at Chatez so I left him. I've had an eachway bet on Russian Realm who was hampered last time out at Chester and also has decent form on Soft ground, 16/1.
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Could it not dry out by Saturday and become
soft rather than heavy? |
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been trying to find a proper mud lover with decent form in this but struggling to find one.
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Baraweez booked his ticket with success in the final race of Saturday's meeting at Leopardstowm, the "Sovereign Path" Handicap.
And while he was a general 25-1 chance for the Cambridgeshire on September 27, Ascot is his intended target. Ellison said: "He's in great form but he won't be running in the Cambridgeshire. "There's that big £250,000 race at Ascot in another month, that's the one for him. |
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Gutted that my old friend!! Loving Spirit isn't entered - conditions would have been ideal.
 I'll have to with my other cliff horse who always runs well in these big handicaps but never wins, namely Jacks Revenge. I doubt he'll shorten in the next few days so will wait till Saturday and hopefully get some 25/1+. |
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Baraweez B.Ellison “At the moment I think hee runs .He has got a lot of speed so the ground is a worry.He has run on it at Beverley and finished second but it is abig worry”
From RP today facts |
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Russian Realm's form figs on offical soft ground are 221. And the second of those 2 form figs is over C&D where he was not given then best of rides by Ryan Moore and had to make up a lot of ground from the back conceding 17lb to the winner off 88. Now 95 but under saturdays conditions that could be ok.
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What's the maximum no. of runners?
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Thanks for the update BJG
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Sin
Russian Realm is a horse I've followed almost over a cliff. Sod's law says it goes in on Saturday. I take your point about the likely ground conditions being a positive. Won't be 16/1 on the day that's for sure ! |
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Sintonian, max runners 30.
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thanks Bazza.
Facts, I actually thought his price was tight enough tbh given the nature of the race but no doubt he'll attract money with ryan moore riding. By Saturday a lot of firms will be going 5 places too. |
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heavy ascot form decent run last time out i,m on sirus prospect at 25,s and as ellison doesnt mind winning with his 2nd strings ive believed all season dream walker has a big handicap in him,backed him ew at 40,s, levitate was also an eyecatcher last time out after drifting badly in the betting
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On likely soft/heavy ground the A King 3yo Chatez does look a big player for this.
Fav on here atm around the 8s mark. WD with the 14s  |
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Like sirus prospect. Will he stay?
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Buckstay @ 18/1 is my first bet.
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Awful shame that the ground is going to be so soft for this. Not going to make it easy. There's also the possibility that it will bring a strong draw bias into contention.
Russian Realm is short but Ryan Moore has never had much good to say about him regards winning something of this calibre. |
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I think this race is going to be the one for Stoute/Moore with Russian Realm. Having followed it, can't desert it now.
I see it's shortening, happy with the 16/1. |
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b0lloxs. Russian Realm does not run
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or does he? No entry listed on RP site but jocked up with Moore aboard on card
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Is entered
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Yep , he's entered Sin ! Good job I saw the betting shows before reading your post
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He's looking pretty short in the market now, not sure he should be that price tbh!
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besides my 5 ew at 40,s hope the rest of the cash on dream walker is from ellison and the owners,
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Gabrial's Kaka has a really good chance here at a huge price. We haven't seen the best of this big horse yet but he was strongly fancied to win the Lincoln when he ran a bit free. Made amends next time out and had a bit of an eyecatching race in the Hunt Cup when drawn wrong and finding as much trouble as possible. He ended up well down the field but it wasn't ground he'd like. Will be much more at home on the soft.
He comes from the back of the field so needs the breaks but a straight track and big field will be right up his straight. I'll forgive his run in the Cambridgeshire last time. It was very fast ground that day and he had no chance of making ground on the field. When he geared up for his run he was hampered and Pat Smullen let him get to the line in his own time. Anyway I have a sneaky suspicion that this was the plan since the Hunt Cup. Gabrial's Kaka @ 33/1 coral and 888sport |
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No surprise to see him in the Pricewise column.
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Yep, I've belatedly reached a similar conclusion.
A lot of these are n't going to go on the ground but figuring out which ones is an altogether different matter because plenty are unraced on Heavy and some are unraced on slower than Good To Soft. Only two have won on Heavy and one of those (Dream Walker) is trained by a guy who was 0-34 in the two weeks prior to today. The other one is Bold Thady Quill. Based on amateur pedigree analysis,the others most likely to act on the ground are: Gabrial's Kaka (trainer asserted ground was n't an issue after his defeat in the Lincoln, only other soft ground run in a 10f Group 3 at Chester in May behind Noble Mission) Levitate Chatez Cornrow Chill The Kite Three of those are drawn low and three are near the top of the market, limited sample size but analysis of other large field mile races on the straight course suggests a high draw might be best so I'm going to have to back Gabrial's Kaka. Levitate and Chatez are short enough so second bet will boil down to a choice between Cornrow and Chill The Kite. Just had to get that off my chest, good luck! |
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went for Chill The Kite ew and Gabrial's Kaka ew in the end.
more in hope than expectation... |
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Ascot can be awful cruel
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Bronze Angel in this ground ? Didn't even consider him
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w/d if you found that today.
like the horse,but not in that ground. |
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Another big handicap ruined by a massive draw bias.
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Russian Realm ran well to finish 8th, but had no chance - was on the wrong side !
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Frustrating unclepuncle. I'm as gutted as a very gutted man here.
I did say above - 'There's also the possibility that it will bring a strong draw bias into contention.' Today I think a lot of it was down to pace. They went that touch quicker on the far side and just didn't come back. Horribly frustrating when you have the winner of the wrong side at 33/1, for thousands. Would he have beat Bronze Angel had they come up the middle? Who knows. But when I had Bronze Angel in the Cambridgeshire at 20's I wasn't going looking for the race's hard luck stories. That's racing as they say. Now where's that stiff drink! |
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PJay
Bad luck !, |
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Ah that's the way it goes Facts. Cheers.
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Was RR beaten by the draw? Apparently he went 4 in running. I missed the race.
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the best thing was hislop and mellish going on about high numbers having a major advantage,on no evidence whatsoever.
not one horse had run on the far side in the previous races,so how did they come to that conclusion. |