QEII - Ascot

ran poorly in france early this year when backing up quick after the lockinge

would be worried about that however he may not got the trip

Not sure you can say common sense should prevail when he has 2 weeks between each run and he put in a big effort yesterday to win the way he did. Wouldn't touch him ante-post personally until confirmed a runner, regardless of the weather. Night of Thunder also handles the soft ground really well too and is the fresher horses.

Integral had a 2 month break before winning on Saturday and connections are now considering her for the race.

Why are the bookies not betting on this race yet but are on the Champion Stakes..

Prob waiting for Ladbrokes to tell us all that Oz is going for the QEII

Olympic Glory not running, retired. Toronado does.

Toronado is going to be 2lb better off with Charm Spirit and Night of Thunder from their runs last time out. Toro has won on Good to Soft twice (maiden and Sussex Stakes) but has never tried it softer. Herbert states he'll run unless it's really bad ground. Given his record at Ascot he could go off Favourite?

Toro's form figs at Ascot are 121 and personally I thought he should have been awarded the SJP when he got knocked sideways by Dawn Approach.

Obvious to say here but the Ground conditions are going to decide the winner of this race! Good ground and I think Toro will reverse form with Charm Spirit at this track. Any softer and it becomes a bit harder to say with conviction.

do you know if the Hannons are sending Toormore as well as NoT and Toronado, sint?

Looking at the entries I'm struggling to get excited by the race to be honest, Integral would be an interesting runner I suppose.

I struggle to see more than half of the entries having any impact at all.

Not sure Rease. He was in the sales not so long ago but had a £750k reserve price I believe so no-one bought him. Not surprised!

Interesting. Someone on twitter is suggest Hughes may ride NOT.

was Ryan Moore a bit unhappy with the way the Prix Moulin unfolded ? .. just think I remember he said he could have done better, ... ?

"Ryan (Moore) told me that he felt he would definitely have won had he not got shuffled back at a crucial stage,

From R Hannon's website .. now I'm no genius like Ryan Moore - but watching the race I fail to see how he was so inconvenienced apart from being a bit slowly away ...

Can anyone shed some light on this please .. ?

and it's not as if they went a crawl and was hurt by being at the rear, as Esoterique who he ran alongside also came storming home to nab 4th place .. pretty much to form ..

This looks the most competitive race of the meeting,a cracker,Integral is improving and hard to overlook,NOT looks on the way back with hold up tactics,they look close together,it will be interesting too see how many drop out,not a betting race for me.

I think Interval has a sound chance based on reversing form with Esoterique and Miss France and Esoterique running the colts to under 2 lengths in the Moulin.
Sint re Olympic Glory where has it been reported hes retired as all the books still have him priced up . £3.65 having him shorter than Toronado whos a stand out 7s.

Harry Herbert said it the other day on C4 racing Geoff.


Anyone else see it?

Yup

Custom Cut is one of 13 horses in contention for the Qipco-sponsored prize, with Joel Stakes runner-up Captain Cat set to renew rivalry with O'Meara's ace after he, too, was added to the field.

Despite last year's winner Olympic Glory now retired to stud, trainer Richard Hannon is still triple-handed at this stage with Toronado, Toormore and Night Of Thunder.

Cheers Sint.

Kingsbarns could be a fascinating runner see Ladbrokes already shortest priced by miles on him. Always got to take note. Still a doubt whether he runs though. They must be desperate to win a big one with him though.

Like the chances of Night of Thunder this Sat myself.
He goes well on the soft & i think the stiff str mile will suit him well.
Would not be surprised to see Toronado taken out (ground to soft) & keep him fresh for the B C mile in 2wks time (come Sat)

yep I don't think they'd run him on Soft/Heavy tbh.

agree about Toronado, suspect that's why they've left Toormore in i.e. he'll run if Toronado does n't (Hannon might also be thinking about place prize money with Trainers championship in mind).

RICHARD HANNON on Tuesday reduced his Queen Elizabeth II Stakes hand to two, diverting Toronado to the Breeders' Cup Mile and leaving Richard Hughes to jump aboard the 2,000 Guineas winner Night Of Thunder on Qipco British Champions Day on Saturday.

RELATED LINKS
QEII Stakes card
Hannon hopes Ryan Moore, who rode Night Of Thunder when he was a neck behind Hughes on Toronado in the Moulin last month, will be free to ride his other contender, Toormore.
The absence of the Group 1-winning Toronado is another blow to British Champions Day, which the bulk of this season's top performers in Europe will miss.

Hannon, speaking at the Tattersalls October Yearling Sales, said: "Hughesie rides Night Of Thunder with Toronado going for the Breeders' Cup Mile. I hope Ryan Moore is available for Toormore, I don't know for sure."

Hughes dismissed any ground concerns for the Classic winner, the only horse to beat Kingman in his career, pointing out: "Night Of Thunder will be fine on the ground. He won on unraceable ground as a two-year-old and it was soft when he won a Listed race at Doncaster last year."

Top Notch Tonto is bidding to go one better than last year and hopes are rising with the prospect of similar soft ground to a year ago when only Hannon's Olympic Glory could pass him in the straight.

The four-year-old went into last year's race, finishing in front of Kingsbarns and favourite Dawn Approach, on the back of two wins and has been winless since but trainer Brian Ellison saw positives in his last two runs on faster ground.

Ellison said: "Everything has gone fine - his last two runs have been much more like it. I think he has come back to form and we know he goes on the track and on the soft ground."

Lightning Moon, second favourite for the Qipco British Champions Sprint, is only 50-50 to make the line-up after an unsatisfactory blood test.

Trainer Ed Walker said that a decision regarding the unbeaten colt's participation in Saturday's showpiece would be made once the colt has cantered and been tested again on Thursday morning.

thanks, had n't read that before I posted, honest!

They're really shrewd at placing 'em imo - I think supplementing Pether's Moon for the Champion Stakes is a clever move too, he's unlikely to win but could quite easily see him running into a place if some of the principles underperform or don't turn up.

Me neither. Just seen it on RP website. I have now backed NOT at 3/1 ew. I know it is not an eachway price but I wouldn't feel confident backing him to win as both Charm Spirit and Integral have winning form on Soft too so will take the lesser loss if he places.

Hannon's hope of getting Moore to partner Toormore will depend on Integral's participation, his quote above suggests Integral might be a doubt or maybe he just does n't know.

good point. Integral is in-training next season and maybe they would not want to give her a tough race against colts on bad ground.

We'll see though as they were pretty sure she'd run last week.

No great surprise that Toro is out of Sats race
Should have took a bit of the 3s about N of T yest .

There must be some Charm Spirit backers? He is nearly joint favourite with NOT. He was 3 3/4 lengths behind NOT in the Guineas but since then has seemingly improved and won 3 on the spin. I don't agree with Hannon that NOT got shuffled back in the Moulin, but he was slowly away meaning he was always travelling 2/3 lengths behind CS who was nicely perched on the rail. NOT had to close that gap and nearly did so can see why Hannon would fancy the reversal but like I say CS has to be respected.

Think (& hope) its 3s the field come sat morn for this, & it should be imo.
Granted a gd pace i would fancy N of T to get the better of the Fr colt, but not by a lot sint.
Just fancy this stiffer mile of Ascot`s to swing the balance, we shall see.
But its not a two horse race by any means, Integral is a class act (tho heavy would be a concern & another quickish run) after her Sun Chariot win.
Custom Cut is much improved this season, Top Notch T does go well in heavy ground (2nd last yr in this race) So an open race that should be 3s the field imo.
On the balance of things in my book i just favour N of T atm.

The one thing I would be absolutely confident about in this race is that NOT will beat Charm Spirit by a comfortable margin. I suppose that means he will win the race then, as the male elders don't look like elite group 1 performers and Integral had a hard race two weeks ago. NOT's prep could hardly have gone much better on a track diametrically opposed to his needs. Charm Spirit is a typical French miler/Moulin winner - skimming around bends and quickening up in a short straight. I can see a virtual rerun of last year's renewal with NOT, like Olympic Glory, powering clear in the final furlong. The Guineas form was absolutely genuine, and this is his first chance since then to show his forte - a gruelling straight mile slog.

The one thing I would be absolutely confident about in this race is that NOT will beat Charm Spirit by a comfortable margin. I suppose that means he will win the race then, as the male elders don't look like elite group 1 performers and Integral had a hard race two weeks ago. NOT's prep could hardly have gone much better on a track diametrically opposed to his needs. Charm Spirit is a typical French miler/Moulin winner - skimming around bends and quickening up in a short straight. I can see a virtual rerun of last year's renewal with NOT, like Olympic Glory, powering clear in the final furlong. The Guineas form was absolutely genuine, and this is his first chance since then to show his forte - a gruelling straight mile slog.

So confident I said it twice.

I think Night of Thunder's the NAP of the entire weekend. Would be shocked to seem him beat in these conditions.

Im a big NoT fan as well and have topped up at 11/4 this morning. Think Tullius could chase him home...

Let's hope it is one for the good guys! Integral is the one I fear most!

Richard Hannon didn't manage to win any of the Group 1s at HQ today. Hopefully better luck tomorrow, if it's on!

More rain forecast overnight & during race time
Bloody nightmare
Heavy ground is a great leveller in form & class.
Like 2day, tread carefully 2moro imo.

Charm Spirit for me.

On this ground every bet is decidedly risky.

So I`m going to give a small amount of money away on the clock horse, Kingsbarns e-w.

Fastest here on my clock is Integral. I have her Ascot win 2lbs better than the slightly overrated (imo)Guineas form and with the 3lbs allowance she meets the 3yos at level weights. The run in France can be forgiven as she returned with bruised feet but maybe she was just feeling the effects of her previous two races anyway. She proved at Newmarket that she handles soft well and looking at the straight reading today I'm not expecting it to be markedly softer. Her latest win was only 2 weeks ago but as it was slowly run I wouldn't usually expect that kind of race to have taken too much out of her.

I'm not sure if Night of Thunder is still the same horse that won the Guineas, maybe these soft conditions can bring about a return to his best but I wouldn't bank on it, if at his best he can go close. I'm not convinced Charm Spirit has improved much since the Guineas and think it's more likely he's been taking advantage of slowly run races. If he wins so be it but there's no way I could back him. Basically I believe if Integral runs her race she wins and I'm having a good bet on her.

I have backed Charm Spirit at 9/2. There were excuses for him at Newmarket and he keeps improving. He has a couple of pounds to find if Night Of Thunder reproduces his Guineas form but 9/2 looks fair.

Well done Charm Spirit backers, obviously better than I'd credited him. Troubled run from Integral, although I'm not sure what was in the tank anyway.

A noticeably slow comparative time for this race. Those held up had to be disadvantaged, particularly in that ground, don't know what those jockeys were thinking of really as even to the eye it looked a moderate pace. Not that I'm saying the winner wouldn't have won anyway.

I suppose the winner had an obvious chance but I thought Toormore was particularly unlucky. I don't know who makes the decisions but KF missed a chance to press for the lead drawn 11 he gave it up without a fight and then spent four furlongs strangeling his mount. He was crossed by NOT a furlong out and still nearly ran him down with hardly any use of the whip. May not have won but should have finished in front of NOT in any event.

I definitely underrated Charm Spirit but still not sure as to the extent to which I underestimated NOT. perhaps he would have won with a better ride - why hold him up at the rear on the rail - but I'm not sure he was good enough anyway.

I'm not too sure about that, Howellsy. When you look at the way NoT was finishing compared to the winner and compare his latter sectionals then it's not so clear cut who the better horse was. Of course it's all relative and if you do less early, like NoT, then you're more likely to be running faster late, but given that it was a slowly run early pace on soft ground leading to a relatively poor overall time then it's a possibilty if you switched jockeys you'd switch the result.

The first three might finish in a different order with different draw/going. I was on Tullius win and place and went from getting excited about a possible win at the furlong pole to losing both bets in 100 yards.

Thought NOT should have won that. Had a feeling before race Hughes would find trouble but always possible it would pan out that way. Charm Spirit is to be retired now.

I thought Toormore should have won. KF had the plum draw and gave it up cheaply for no apparent reason. Especially as it was likely they would go steady on the ground and his best performane this seasonwas from the front, just didn't make any sense. He then spent 4 furlongs strangling it before looking for an out. Was crossed by NOT a furlong out and was beaten nothing by him at the death. I did back him for a place at 6s so came out of it OK but should have won imo. NOT was always going to be held up and Hughsie would have to come around the field and he nearly did it. It just looked at the death like he wasn't getting the winner. I could be wrong about that.

See things as they are and not how you want them to be. The best horse on the day won and also didn`t have an untroubled passage.

Olympic Glory should have won.

It's not just a case of the troubled passage, which sometimes can't be helped, it's more about the tactics of holding a horse up in rear in soft ground in what was obviously panning out to be a slowly run race. It's known that it's more difficult to make up a lot of ground in soft going (although it's a lot easier when they go too fast, as in Madame Chiang's race). The more slowly run the race the more chance of finding trouble but most importantly the more slowly run the race the more difficult it is to give ground away early on.

NoT doesn't have to be ridden like that, he won his first two starts in soft ground tracking the leaders, he also wasn't right out at the back in the Guineas. I wouldn't be sure if he could've turned the form around in different circumstances but given the data there's certainly an argument that he might have and in my view the jockey didn't give him the best chance of winning.

Couldn't disagree with that F. What did you think about Toormore, s run? I think he was one of yours before the 2000 gns.

I am Felt. My opinion.

Toormore not good enough, imo. I rated him highly before the Guineas but in hindsight I see where I went wrong, we can't always get it right but on this occasion my judgement was crap, as poor as Hughes' tactics on NoT (regardless of whether he would've won or not). I wonder if he will be so ready to admit his error or will he dismiss it as bad luck and £10 punter pocket talk, even though my 'tenner' went elsewhere.

Toormore beaten a half length by NOT with RH getting a whip ban. Something to look forward to for next year I think. Be intersting in the Lockinge if Hughsie switches back.

looking at the toormore run again.....THATS A SHOCKER

Messy race full-stop imo
All wanting to huddle over to the standside rail for better ground.
Very steady pace, then a 3f sprint to the line (French style racing) & winner .
Hold-up horses at a disadvantage the way things panned out.

Only ones happy with the result were the backers of the winner (punters wise) WD

Thought it was Toormore's best performance this season. The first time he has ran to the line. Maybe the change if tactics by KF was the reason why.