Qipco Champion Stakes 18th October.

I have been back over three years and cannot find a stick reading any lower than 5 on either flat or jumps. It must be really deep in places

Yep, more rain too and I dubious of the improved going report yesterday before the rain, they will clearly be desperate for the meeting to go ahead. It is going to be a right slog in the mud.

but how can it be so bad if not heavy all round -- and from what I see the outlook is much improved -- I actually think it will be soft. Be v interesting to see the latest update.

and bazzar the Balmoral is on the straight.

I agree with John.W.Henry, 5 is a very low reading for the course, hard to see how it can be anything but heavy at the moment and I'd normally expect it to take longer to shift from heavy to soft than, say, soft to good to soft.

Reports of a 'monster' storm coming in off the Atlantic in the next couple of days don't auger well for lovers of good ground!

what chance that Free Eagle actually runs? I thought Dermot had said he was almost a certain non-runner on heavy ground? Wonder if anyone will refund stakes on the AP market if he is pulled.

Thanks for the info, ffs.

huge amount of rain homing in on Ascot atm - it won't escape another 10-15mm it looks like.

Let's hope the meeting is on because I'm going!!

About to have a monster bet on CDA, so pls try to convince me otherwise if I'm insane.  My view of this years form

- CDA beats Arc winner in a war
- CDA beats arc second on its best ground/trip - easily
- CDA from on heavy is astonishing
- CDA runs best when run recently, it has.

Pls let free eagle run!

No going update from Stickels yet today - obviously wants to keep quiet after the course took at least another 10-15mm last night.

Draw    Horse  OR  (Mj best of last 4 runs)

1 (8)     Al Kazeem  117 (120)
2 (9)    Cirrus Des Aigles  123 (127)
3 (5)     Noble Mission  117 (121)
4 (7)     Pether's Moon  114 (118)
5 (1)     Ruler Of The World     122 (126)   
6 (3)     Sheikhzayedroad  113 (116)
7 (4)     Ayrad  105 (111)
8 (2)    Free Eagle      105 (121)
9 (6)     Western Hymn  112 (115)

Well it's been nice talking about it,a shame the bloody thing will probably be cancelled!

they are claiming 5mm last night. still heavy soft in places according to the RP

sorry my mistake 2.5mm

can't believe 2.5mm having monitored rain radar.

Remember, this is the one(run at all costs)

if they get the 5 hrs of rain forecast tonight and rain thru tmrw morning. surely barely raceable

if misses heavy side of soft gluey ground

Oct 17, 2014 -- 2:39AM, Kevbetting superstar wrote:

Let's hope the meeting is on because I'm going!!About to have a monster bet on CDA, so pls try to convince me otherwise if I'm insane.  My view of this years form- CDA beats Arc winner in a war- CDA beats arc second on its best ground/trip - easily- CDA from on heavy is astonishing- CDA runs best when run recently, it has. Pls let free eagle run!

I had a monster anti post, largely for the same reason. Personally hoping Free Eagle doesnt run is he is the only unknown. Feel CDA has the rest beat.

I'll probably put in play lays on CDA at 1.5 and 1.2 as if he does get beat it wont be more then half a length or a neck.

How fast does Ascot dry out?

if it doesn't rain again then it's going to be like a glue pot....the old boy CDA might be the one to just keep on rolling in those sort of attritional conditions.

Reckon we need a nice shower tomorrow to open the ground back up...

I like the accu weather hourly forecast which gives a good indication of chances of rain.

http://www.accuweather.com/en/gb/ascot/sl5-7/hourly-weather-forecast/331506

At best the ground will be soft. Most likely it will be heavy, soft in places with slightly better ground in the straight.

Stickels conceded it will have Heavy in description in the paper this morning, so Soft (Heavy in places) is probably best case scenario.

John W. Henry's observation about the going stick ratings above is the most pertinent piece of information I've read about the going, one of the reasons why these threads are always worth reading, thanks to him for sharing.

I am really hoping the meeting is on as well as we have hospitality arranged and also on CDA at the 4/1 prices, dissapointed I am not going to be seeing Australia or Kingman though.

Expect 2.3 mm of precipitation over the next 3 hours.
Expect 2.8 mm precipitation over the next 6 hours.
Expect 3.8 mm precipitation over the next 12 hours.

about another 10 mil to come

all the helicopters coming in will dry the straight a bit imo

final thoughts

1:45 - FLYING OFFICER e/w like the route taken into race,ground no problem.
2:20 - LUCKY KRISTALE very small e/w,Thought the younger lot could take this,not been on this sort of ground,but could do ok?
2:55 - CHICQUITA ran a listless race in the Arc,but draw would have dulled hope?,hope for a revival.HADAATHA, excellent effort latest(have bet both)
3:30 - INTEGRAL,continues too impress,comes into the race the unfashionable way,e/w
4:05 - CIRRUS DES AIGLES, have bet,the old fella knows the game,but will need to find more than last start.
4:45 - CHATEZ, pin job.

Hi MJ. Looks like the rain ust kept coming. I'm working the weekend but hope to see a couple of races. I've taken on CDA and Noble Mission in the Champion so they will be bigish losers for me. The other races don't look like betting races really so I will looking at Gregorian and Gordon Lord Byron in the sprint. Chiquita in the F&M and the 3 year olds in the QE11. I'll make GLB my winner in the sprint I have alrady backed NOT antepost so I will have a few quid on Toormore with CS as my saver.If KF jumps Toormore out from his wide draw and leads he may just find his stride and show the form he showed in the Craven when he beat TGG etc. He hasn't been over raced and his Guineas run shows both RH's thought he should have beaten the other two Hannon horses.Could be a nice priced upset.Have a good one.

*biggish.

brigust, Have a good un

Have laid off my e/w stake on Cirrus (backed @ 9/2) so I hope Free Eagle is a non runner to reduce my lay odds even further.

Have also put up an in running lay of Noble Mission @ 2/1 (backed at 14/1)

I have also backed Western Hymn @ 20/1 - been tipping him for big races all year that he hasn't ended up running in so had to have something on.

Similar to my comments on the QEII, I`m going to give a small amount away on the clock horse, Al Kazeem.

When most people are trying to decipher just how bad the Ascot ground is it was poor stuff for RUK to ignore the time and cut straight to a load of waffle on a Catterick fillies maiden. If the on screen the can be trusted, which isn't always the case, then the ground on the round course doesn't appear to be too much softer than last year, which was plenty soft enough but not extremely heavy.

*on screen time

For me, CDA, Noble Mission and Free Eagle are the only three with form this year good enough to take this race. I have CDA and Noble Mission very marginally ahead and if this race was run earlier in the season I'd favour those two. However, Noble Mission really peaked at Chester and the Curragh and while he's still been running well since then his form has dropped a few pounds. Possibly the break will freshen him up and these ideal conditions might just see him return to his very best but I wouldn't be sure of it.

CDA has been a marvellous campaigner, in the last two seasons I've rated him lower than his very best but have still been surprised at the high level of form he's shown at the age of 8. He too had a busy early season campaign and returned lame after the Coronation Cup. The question is whether he can return to his early season form. His latest run didn't reveal whether he can as it was a slowly run race, he quickened from the front and was the best horse in the race but it wasn't run to show what he can really do. Obviously the hope would be for the race to bring him on but that has to be taken on trust.

I have Free Eagle with only 1lb to find on these terms, and while I don't go in for the hype that a horse could've won by lengths more if ridden hard, I think it's reasonable to think he could've at least found 1lb. The huge factor I see in Free Eagle's favour is he's the one I most expect to run his race as he's obviously a fresh horse. I've never subscribed to the 'bounce second run after a break' theory where young horses are concerned. I don't know for sure how he'll act on the ground but I'm not expecting it to be a problem while it doesn't appear too heavy. If either of the two older horses mentioned are on song they certainly won't be easy to beat but I believe when a horse looks almost guaranteed to run its race it is greatly favoured, as many horses simply don't run to their very best in most races. I was hoping for Australia to run and get a better price on FE but there is still just enough value in his price for me to back him.

can't see past Cirrus here

RotW for me along with Pethers Moon and     Sheikhzayedroad  ,afraid of Free eagle and would not grudge CDA the win on his 60th start but  at the prices thats it for me ,actually a great race and one to savour rather than lose on .

sensible folks will be on Free Eagle and last start did raise eyebrows but this is different and will be a war

cracking training performance. What a gutsy effort  WD winners.

Free Eagle never seemed to be travelling comfortably even during the slower paces so maybe the ground wasn't to his liking but no excuses for backing him as the ground was known and it wasn't a bad run. Well done Noble Mission backers, a worthy winner and a horse that I think has been underrated by some. Pity about CDA who was obviously well below his best. Well done Al Kazeem backers too, I'd seen nothing in this year's form to think he could put in a run like that, those who suggested the ground would bring out the best in him were right after all.

AK would have been a huge win for me having piled in at 40-1. Thought he was going to do it only for NM to battle back. Pleased for Lady Cecil as much as 2nd place is a wounder.

terrific ride on the winner judged the pace superbly

Excellent opening post , well done

Great race - pity Cirrus couldn't at least get involved as I love his trainer. He was beat a long way out so presumably feeling something.
Free Eagle ran a cracker and if he stays sound should be the older horse to beat next year.

well done noble mission backers he drifted to 7-1 in the end which was much fairer than the 9-2 in the week

well done sint on the OP as the 16-1 was a good pick at the prices and you got the ground

Yes well done, sint, for the opening post.

well done winners and great opening post .

great race

How many of the wining jockeys received what are in essence all weather bans today?

I am not sure George Baker (fine ride) being so delighted for James Doyle as soon as they passed the line is ruthless enough to cut it at the top table in any sport.

Great tipping once again, Sintonian

Absolutely delighted for connections. Who would have thought it at the start of the season? He didn't even make the TTTF lists! What surprised me today was the guts he showed when he was joined by AK a furlong out. I was sure he would fold as he has in the past. But today he stuck his head out and battled back and showed huge courage. Lady Cecil really needed it but she and her team should be congratulated for finding the key to this horse and for getting him spot on for his big day.

Yes well done winners. I couldn't have him on my mind though I did think AK may run a big race. Just a race, a bit like the Eclipse, to put a line through with the first two throughout finishing first and secind. If they all stay in training it would be interesting. The run by Free Eagle looked promising but I would have to see CDA run again before I conclude he has gone back badly. I just think the front runners dictated then quickened up in the home straight. A losing race for me but there you go. Thank goodness for GLB to ease the pain just a little.

Brig with the greatest respect this was not a race won just by tactics. It was run in a very good time for the conditions. If what you are saying was correct you would not expect to see the horses in behind the front two dropping off as they did. Watch the replay and you will see most of the field were under pressure some way out. They couldn't go with the front two. You can put a line through it if you wish but some of us predicted it and it was blindingly obvious that NM would lead and play catch me if you can. The simple truth is that none of them could.

he never actually gets it wrong it's the races that are run at a false pace

Well it was quite different from the Eclipse wasn't it. In the Eclipse they gave the front three far too much rope and couldn't make up the ground in the straight but were closing late on. Here the field were closely grouped and the front two simply galloped clear pulling away from the rest of the field and leaving them strung out. Nothing to do with tactics.

That is not necessary A_T. It was an observation not a criticism. I said I couldn't back the winner and I said I lost on the race.
With most races something can be gained for future reference but in this race unless they meet again on similar ground there is little to learn from it. I'm sure which horses ran to form or improved their form  and which horses under performed and by how much.
And to say tactics didn't win the race I disagree. Doyle set his stall out and executed his plans brilliantly and George had no intention of letting Doyle get too easy a lead so kept tabs on him. They deserve a lot of credit.

*I'm not sure which horses ran to form etc.

Well a rotten day for me at Ascot,well done if you found them. Noble Mission winning confirms the high opinion I found for Sea The Moon after the German Derby,Lucky lion beaten a long way in that race,and the best performance of the year for me,possible too good for Sea The moon,who must have had a very hard race which left a big mark.

Sea The Moon winning German Derby - http://youtu.be/-9S9MnCzTDA (note lucky lion behind)


Lucky Lion beating Noble Mission - http://youtu.be/M-_Lsye6iMw

One of those one off performances that German racing fans will be talking about for years, It's so hard to know what effect such a performance does have on the racehorse.

I have been a bit disapointed with the hard sell of this meeting at Ascot,it's a competitive world,but to have so many meetings within the month or so trying too make their own the main event, of the year, is silly. It is far too late and the fields were on the whole disapointing,this could be held at the start of the year,which lacks a high gloss start.

Simlar comments I would make of the Breeders this year,which is bad for racing,we send over the B team, and the Arc lacked the Derby winners? Its time racing started looking inward,the public well aware the racing being diluted.

Each too their own,I will stick with Wolverhampton and kempton AW,the bigger picture in racing for a long time very sad,their only concern filling a few choice racetracks,we may never have our most wanted worlwide Olympic event,the best we can do,is choose which event we want to watch or go too(which becomes increasingly difficult to plan for?)

On a positive note, the All Weather may be able to have our Olympics,with planning and the chance of structure,and hopefully rules of having to compete(run ) in qualifying events on the AW,a shared end of season event is possible,something simple for the public too follow(if you don't qualify you don't run).

No one had any intention of letting James have a soft lead Brig. With the exception of Sheikhy the whole field were bunched from the outset. Joseph was upsides George on ROTW the whole race. CDA was right there. Free Eagle was always right behind ROTW. There were no excuses. No hard luck stories. It was not a particularly tactical race and was run at a very decent gallop. Completely different from the Eclipse. AK was the only one that could go with NM when he quickened entering the straight. The two bets horses on the day fought out the finish.

Obviously conditions played a part but most the field handled heavy/soft ground. But anyway you just keep on under-estimating NM and I'll keep backing him at those lovely prices!!!

Cheers all. Made up for the seething state I was in after the qe2. Think night of thunder should have won

Yes well done Sin, hope you tookthe 16s to something good.
Of course you are right Joni about the best two horses on the day I couldn't disagree with that and I will continue to under rare NM that is the nature of gambling, there is a backer and a layer. I said in my earlier post I hadn't a clue what would win and so it proved. It happens in racing, you take against a horse and you are either right or wrong.

Cheers brig! Good shouts with al kazeem, too remorse.

No it was a good shout the facts are there.

Looking through my points I guess all the older horses looked about the same horse. With ROTW linked with CDA and also linked with Al Kazeem and Siljans Saga who is closely linked with NM then they are almost all the same horse. So if you get a group of horses all the same and the race is run at a sensible pace when they turn into the straight the horses in front will stay there and that is what happened. If for example CDA was a better horse than the front two he may have been able to get them but as he is only as good as them he was never going to catch them. Does that make sense?

I'm sorry Brig but in this case it doesn't make ANY sense and you are reading this race very poorly imo. Please watch it again. You call it a sensible pace but actually both commentators and pundits on C4 and RUK said it was a searching pace. This was no soft lead. This was not a case of those in behind not reaching the leaders it was a case of the front two drawing further clear with only Free Eagle able to stay anywhere near them. You are basically saying that whoever lead that race would have won it. Completely false. NM took no prisoners from the outset and they all tried to stay with him but only AK was able to.

The general consensus in the RP today is that it was the best race since Grundy v Bustino. That was a year or two before I got into racing but I can certainly say it was one of the finest races I have seen. It can't just be dismissed as lightly as you are trying to.

what a load of bollocks,he set a moderate pace.

It's getting very tiresome reading posts after big races claiming that the result was down to a slow pace. We even get this when the times are fast.

A bit like watching ATR Sunday forum, everything is great, this was the result everyone wanted,? what price was the winner?

Oh dear MJ.

did n't back the winner but enjoyed the race as a spectacle, I also think Free Eagle ran very well and will be a force to be reckoned with next season.

Both the winner and the second ran with guts and class, quite rightly the plaudits went to Noble Mission but Al Kazeem must be blessed with a fabulous temperament to re-submit to the training regime and prove just as good (almost!) as before he went to stud. He could quite conceivably win a G1 at the age of 7 next season.

Joni as George Baker said after the race "they didn't go that quick up front and that helped him relax" but we will all have to read it as we wish.  I'm pretty sure the ratings gus will not change anything at all for the reason I stated.
The best horse won on the day and the second best horse was second, if you ignore the fact that the winner broke the rules,
and unlike the QE11 no-one can claim to be unlucky. That is certainly nothing I have claimed at all. The only horse I think would have benefited from an end to end gallop would have been Weld's horse Free Eagle.
It doesn't matter if we see races differently that is what racing and gambling is about. I couldn't back Noble Mission with any money and he would have been my lay of the race but I was wrong and it cost me. Without that element there wouldn't be racing and gambling so enjoy the differences.

Not sure what all the hoohah is about. The race basically went exactly as expected - the only thing wrong with the last 2 furlongs is that it was Al Kazeem putting it up to Noble Mission in the straight rather than CDA.

Was it a top class race - no. The conditions played to one or two horses strengths and their jockeys maximised this so credit to them for that. The other horses either had off days (or just aren't as good as they once were - CDA/ROW) or didn't show up at all (Australia et al).

I find myself falling out of love with the game,hard sell TV with  Snooty and co telling me this is top class racing. Maybe I am just at that age?, but the lack of real debate in the game,and politics, the propaganda is sickening,feck it.

http://www.turftrax.co.uk/tracking.asp?t=BritishChampions2014

No soft lead there.

Did someone say it was a soft lead? That's assuming soft is based on time. I think he had an untroubled lead and not entirley sure what times can say when the ground is soft, heavy in places. Which places was it heavy exactly. Does turftrax tell us that?

what a load of bollocks,he set a moderate pace.

George Baker said they didn't go quick up front and I'm pretty sure with an untroubled lead JD would be saving something for the home straight, as it appeared. But with diverse goings how can sectionals tell you anything with jockeys giving horses breathers on that ground etc?

awful stuff - shameless

Anyone who thinks JD is going to run his horse into the ground after been nutted in St Cloud and Germany is doing the lad a disservice.

A_T, how did we get from setting a good overall pace to running a horse into the ground?

Based on soft/heavy ground seconds per furlong adjustments the fastest race against standard was the Champion Stakes.

And that's evidence. Taking the Jockey at his word is just one person's perspective, like an opinion. It does not amount to evidence likes times and other factors do.

No it isn't Sin. You are comparing with a 2m race and a 12f fillies and mares race. How can that be evidence. ROTW broke the course record in the Foy yet he set a steadyish even pace to start with apparently. Often fast finishing times are achieved off a steadyish early pace. Not knowing how or where the heavy patches were or how inconsistent the course was then times, in my opinion, are just times. That's just an opinion of course. I wouldn't someone explaining to me why that isn't so. I really wouldn't mind. Honestly.

Judging the pace correctly from the front is a real art - Doyle did a great job. Hughes often seems to hope that they will go too fast and he can pick them up from the back in the final furlong - when they don't go too fast and/or you get traffic problems like yesterday you encounter difficulties.

Perhaps all races should be run in lanes to eliminate this continuous and more often than not irrelevant banter. But then it wouldn`t be horse racing as we know it.

Hey Brig if Ruler of the World broke the track record on the Foy then what did Ectot do in the Niel?

Hey Brig if Ruler of the World broke the track record in the Foy then what did Ectot do in the Niel?

The point is it's not always irrelevant. It's important to analyse if a result may have been different under different circumstances. Most people accepted the 1986 Derby result at face vale but some didn't, the winner went of fav when they met again but those who said the second should've won were proved right. The overwhelming evidence here, though, is that Noble Mission was in no way lucky to win and no horse behind was inconvenienced by the way the race was run (maybe some were by the ground but that's a different matter). I would've thought the visual evidence was enough but it's also backed up by the final time, that time couldn't have been clocked under those conditions at a less than true pace. They even finished the last furlong quicker in the two mile race if more evidence was needed that it wasn't a sprint finish.

All fair points and I have never questioned the fact that the best horseon the day won. Ignoring the fact that JD broke the whip rules but that is a different point.
The fact that the 2m race final furlong was faster than the Champion Stakes could be a telling point but clearly NM and AK set too long before the final furlong so it is no surprise they were running out of steam. A fact not accounted for in the 2 miler where the winner belted away.
A point I would be interested in was the time by the 3rd horse, Free Eagle, in the final furlong by comparison.

Also Brig that super filly Treve beat the afore mentioned times in the Foy and the Niel in the Arc and carried the same weight 9-2. The clock never lies but horses perform differently on different days and on different ground, ignore the clock at your peril.

I'm far fom convinced Felt bu I am open to being convinced. So far all I am interested in is if a horse puts in a fast time the chance of a bounce is much greater. And recovery much longer.

Free Eagle's time for final furlong was 13.97s versus 14.12 and 14.13 by Noble Mission and Al Kazeem respectively (courtesy of the link kindly posted by Figgis above).

...might have misunderstood your point, brig - if you were looking for comparison between Free Eagle's final fulong time and the 2 mile race, then Forgotten Rules recorded 13.76s for final fulong.

the first 3 all clocked progressively slower times for the final 4 furlongs - not a symptom of a race run below normal pace.

Considering we are looking at potentially the stiffest part of the course until the final furlong that is understandable. And of course there is a possibility that GB was going so well on AK he thought the pace was steady but as I said before I don't think the pace really mattered except maybe for Free Eagle though he may have been flattered by the leaders weakening than him actually improving but that would be an effect of the race anyway.
I'm not sure what the final furlong time between FE and FR tells us. Anyone?

Free Eagle ran each of the last four furlongs quicker than the winner, but having backed him I have no complaints at all about the run of the race. It's not like Smullen held to him for too long, for me the horse was always being kept up to his work and if Smullen had forced even more out of him early he would've paid for it later. Initially I thought the gound may have been against him but on final analysis I have him only 1lb lower than his previous best, so a negligible amount and basically he ran his race. What his performance does confirm to me, though, is something I've always thought, that he'd be more effective over 12f, although we will just have to see if he goes on next year.

That is very interesting F. If FE was making ground on the first at the hottest part of the race that is only to his credit. Especially over a sustained period. But my eyes told me I would back FE to beat the others next time anyway that probably only confirms it. Good point though.

Just watched a replay. What a tough, reliable and genuine top class racehorse Noble Mission has become. Fantastic from Lady Cecil.

well done NM backers, he has clearly progressed more than I thought this season and clearly loved the ground. Was a really enjoyable days racing, even managed to get an invite in the betfair box to watch the main event.

very good call sintonian