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Im hoping he will turn up... if he does it will give Amy Ryan a chance to redeem herself... thought she did not give him the best of rides in the Ayr Gold Cup... but came swooping late to nab third... The horse had a great draw considering the Silver and Bronze cups were won high... but made life difficult by staying at the back for maybe a bit too long... so when he ran on Louis the Pious had flown. But for me was the best horse in the race... should have won that.
Amy Ryan back on board again... so hopefully... gets another bite on the cherry @20/1 if he turns up wont be that price.
Good Luck!
Amy Ryan back on board again... so hopefully... gets another bite on the cherry @20/1 if he turns up wont be that price.
Good Luck!
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Can't get away from Princes Trust. Very impressive last time out. Good apprentice booking. Another potential Group horse from Haggas ?
not sure blaine stays 7f heavens guest got to go close especially if they get a bit of rain
How many of these big field straight course handicaps does Haggas win?,esp between 5f to about a mile.
Trainers tend to train to a certain regime and preference for races
John Dunlop for inst never even smelt the Cambridgeshire or Stewards cup,yet won the Wokingham.
Although Hamdan Al Maktoum has the better horses,and nearly all would be described as Group horses, as a percentage how many of their horses win these type of races?.
These races TEND to be won by a variety of middle of the road to slightly higher trainers who lay them out for a go,and they end up being the "occasional" horse,specific to that specific race.
Of course Richard Fahy,not a trainer of group horses and Mark Johnson who do well in these races [obviously Fahy in sprints],may not be described as ordinary trainers,but i think you get my drift.
Trainers tend to train to a certain regime and preference for races
John Dunlop for inst never even smelt the Cambridgeshire or Stewards cup,yet won the Wokingham.
Although Hamdan Al Maktoum has the better horses,and nearly all would be described as Group horses, as a percentage how many of their horses win these type of races?.
These races TEND to be won by a variety of middle of the road to slightly higher trainers who lay them out for a go,and they end up being the "occasional" horse,specific to that specific race.
Of course Richard Fahy,not a trainer of group horses and Mark Johnson who do well in these races [obviously Fahy in sprints],may not be described as ordinary trainers,but i think you get my drift.
Ayaar at 20/1 is the one I fancy at this early stage.
4th in the Victoria Cup on good to soft on his second start for Luca, who always maintains he's a fast ground horse.
Hampered big time when making a run in the Royal Hunt Cup on good/firm. Finished 5th.
Pulled out of the Bunbery Cup because of soft ground.
Bad draw and dwelt in the Longines. Made an encouraging run up the far side but couldn't challenge. Good ground.
5th/7 in a Gr2 race in Turkey on very soft.
The going is good(good/firm) this morning and there's a warm dry week forecast. I think he's a much improved horse since joining Luca Cumani's yard. Has gone close here at Ascot but still races off 96. I think he could go well.
But this is Ascot. The entries and the draw could change everything. I've had a nibble but will be waiting for entries and the draw before going any further.
4th in the Victoria Cup on good to soft on his second start for Luca, who always maintains he's a fast ground horse.
Hampered big time when making a run in the Royal Hunt Cup on good/firm. Finished 5th.
Pulled out of the Bunbery Cup because of soft ground.
Bad draw and dwelt in the Longines. Made an encouraging run up the far side but couldn't challenge. Good ground.
5th/7 in a Gr2 race in Turkey on very soft.
The going is good(good/firm) this morning and there's a warm dry week forecast. I think he's a much improved horse since joining Luca Cumani's yard. Has gone close here at Ascot but still races off 96. I think he could go well.
But this is Ascot. The entries and the draw could change everything. I've had a nibble but will be waiting for entries and the draw before going any further.
Haggas is man who you write off in any handicap at your peril. Muthmir, Conquest, Yeast, Fast or Free, Penitent, Rex Imperator, High Standing are just some of the major winners I can think of from 5f to 1m. At the end of the day they are very difficult races win.
yep, I was just about to write similar - he's won the Wokingham twice and the Stewards Cup last year. Muthmir won the Portland and the Skybet Dash this year.
Prince's Trust, appropriately enough, is owned by The Queen and has had only one run for Haggas, having been with the Hannons last year. Not looked at the race properly yet but, on profile alone, I can completely understand why people want to back Prince's Trust.
Prince's Trust, appropriately enough, is owned by The Queen and has had only one run for Haggas, having been with the Hannons last year. Not looked at the race properly yet but, on profile alone, I can completely understand why people want to back Prince's Trust.
the weather forecast looks like it's going to make the ground hard to predict. There's some nasty weather that's due to hit on Saturday, the sort of rain that could really get into the ground. Could be anything from GF to Soft by race time
Looks like Ayaar doesn't go. The three market leaders are in.
It looks a poor £150,000 handicap to me.
It looks a poor £150,000 handicap to me.
Reese and John,yes i take your point,its very valid,but to me Haggas has come to these races before with horses that went on to be Group winners and failed,Mukhadram,being one example.
Because of the compression of the weights less unexposed types fail to get into these races, making it possible for winners to nick Group 2/group3 races later e.g. Tazeez.
But predominately, group races are a different type of race entirely,normally on a round course for 7f to further,and different pace esp when O'Briens not around.
One more important thing is experience.Horses need to know what to do in a race like this,as one big trainer said when he gave the game away,he said "you can't lay a horse out for a race like this unless you know he can do the biz".
Until then i see the horse only as a speculation of what it can do.Winning mickey mouse races easily tends not to be the way to go.Ask Abseil backers,yes altho his backers may point to his high profile win at Epsom [Epsom runners bar Mr Aviator dont win the Hunt Cup]he has been a disappointment.
As for Ayaar,good two year olds rarely return after their 3 year old flops.they tend to be small horses [thats why they ran at two so much]and return with very high weights which being small they find it hard to carry.
I have a lot of respect for Ayaar and because of his trainers past and present,he may be prepared for a one off.With victories this year for Chilworth Icon and Heavy Metal,previous high class 2 y olds, the trend may be changing,but they have to belong to the right trainers who have experience of doing this.
Of course these things that i have mentioned are only a guide they are not set in stone [or concrete as my mate used to say!!!].Stats and trends eventually change,good luck to all anyway.
Because of the compression of the weights less unexposed types fail to get into these races, making it possible for winners to nick Group 2/group3 races later e.g. Tazeez.
But predominately, group races are a different type of race entirely,normally on a round course for 7f to further,and different pace esp when O'Briens not around.
One more important thing is experience.Horses need to know what to do in a race like this,as one big trainer said when he gave the game away,he said "you can't lay a horse out for a race like this unless you know he can do the biz".
Until then i see the horse only as a speculation of what it can do.Winning mickey mouse races easily tends not to be the way to go.Ask Abseil backers,yes altho his backers may point to his high profile win at Epsom [Epsom runners bar Mr Aviator dont win the Hunt Cup]he has been a disappointment.
As for Ayaar,good two year olds rarely return after their 3 year old flops.they tend to be small horses [thats why they ran at two so much]and return with very high weights which being small they find it hard to carry.
I have a lot of respect for Ayaar and because of his trainers past and present,he may be prepared for a one off.With victories this year for Chilworth Icon and Heavy Metal,previous high class 2 y olds, the trend may be changing,but they have to belong to the right trainers who have experience of doing this.
Of course these things that i have mentioned are only a guide they are not set in stone [or concrete as my mate used to say!!!].Stats and trends eventually change,good luck to all anyway.
Nice bit of back tracking Pipe 
So what if Haggas wins with Group horses? You said he doesn't win these races too often, which you were proved wrong
I'll let you use my Mukhadram example from the Cambridgeshire thread
Totally agree about the compression of the weights, an example of this is in 1990 Final Shot won the Ayr Gold Cup off 81, that mark this year would have only got her into the Bronze Cup. Racing is changing that's why I think stats are even more dangerous as lot's of them are becoming outdated, anyway I'll leave the stat's thing don't want to start WW3!!!
As for Abseil in my opinion has gone the wrong way for whatever reason? Maybe he needs the cruellest cut of all? or something else is troubling him? Because his Epsom win is good form but he has sadly gone backwards.
Anyway it's all opinions and who's right? everyone now and again
So what if Haggas wins with Group horses? You said he doesn't win these races too often, which you were proved wrong I'll let you use my Mukhadram example from the Cambridgeshire threadTotally agree about the compression of the weights, an example of this is in 1990 Final Shot won the Ayr Gold Cup off 81, that mark this year would have only got her into the Bronze Cup. Racing is changing that's why I think stats are even more dangerous as lot's of them are becoming outdated, anyway I'll leave the stat's thing don't want to start WW3!!!
As for Abseil in my opinion has gone the wrong way for whatever reason? Maybe he needs the cruellest cut of all? or something else is troubling him? Because his Epsom win is good form but he has sadly gone backwards.
Anyway it's all opinions and who's right? everyone now and again
Yes John you are right its not an exact science.I relented a bit because i thought my posts looked as if it was saying that it was an an exact science,its all a question of balance,stuff can only nudge you here,nudge you there.
A lot of classy trainers,Stoute for inst has turned up in the Cambs with good horses,Major Role in '82 was backed down to 6-1 fav,beaten yet went on to win a group 2 at Longchamp,he and Dunlop turned up every year with good classy horses,even Cecil turned up sometimes with a classy horse.
I think that what i really mean is that they turn up with loads of horses that on basic form should have done a lot better.
Still as you say its all opinion,stats will change because of the mucking about that the BHA etc do.
Back before the eighties Classics were run at a a fast pace with pacemakers being used,and beaten horses in them could drop down in class to win these big handicaps.Then the classics were run at a slow pace with a sprint finish [Erhaabs Derby an exception],[Shergars time was actually slower than the Oaks that year!!!],classy group horses then couldnt drop down and win these type of races.
Now with the weight compression and O'Brien et al using pacemakers,perhaps its changing again,i reckon its all about pace and the type of a certain horses ability to cope with it.Anyway lots of luck to all.
A lot of classy trainers,Stoute for inst has turned up in the Cambs with good horses,Major Role in '82 was backed down to 6-1 fav,beaten yet went on to win a group 2 at Longchamp,he and Dunlop turned up every year with good classy horses,even Cecil turned up sometimes with a classy horse.
I think that what i really mean is that they turn up with loads of horses that on basic form should have done a lot better.
Still as you say its all opinion,stats will change because of the mucking about that the BHA etc do.
Back before the eighties Classics were run at a a fast pace with pacemakers being used,and beaten horses in them could drop down in class to win these big handicaps.Then the classics were run at a slow pace with a sprint finish [Erhaabs Derby an exception],[Shergars time was actually slower than the Oaks that year!!!],classy group horses then couldnt drop down and win these type of races.
Now with the weight compression and O'Brien et al using pacemakers,perhaps its changing again,i reckon its all about pace and the type of a certain horses ability to cope with it.Anyway lots of luck to all.
Is relenting your way of saying you are wrong about Mr Haggas
The thing is when so called classy trainers as you put it, turn up with horses in these races people are backing the potential rather the substance and the bookies are only to happy to slash their prices!
Just one other thing you have done Mr Fahey two disservices you spelt his name wrong and he is one of the best trainers currently training! If he had the fire power that some of these other top trainers had then he'd be champion trainer. A very underrated trainer and it seems he's not fashionable enough to train for the very top owners, a shame for him.
The thing is when so called classy trainers as you put it, turn up with horses in these races people are backing the potential rather the substance and the bookies are only to happy to slash their prices!Just one other thing you have done Mr Fahey two disservices you spelt his name wrong and he is one of the best trainers currently training! If he had the fire power that some of these other top trainers had then he'd be champion trainer. A very underrated trainer and it seems he's not fashionable enough to train for the very top owners, a shame for him.
Sorry about this,i must have been thinking about Fahy the jockey but i did say that Fahey and Johnson "may not be described as ordinary trainers",the bit about him not being a trainer who gets group winners,was in fact me just stating it as a fact,and not actually my opinion.
Like you i believe that given the right ammo he could do as good as the big boys,as we know he is a mean winner of sprints.
As for being wrong or right,well it depends which way you look at it.It would be too harsh of me to declare that Haggas winners of these races as a percentage is less that the norm 50%,trainers cant do that figure its impossible.
I'm just saying that what we should all look for is stats or equations,which is what i do also, that are better than the norm.Naturally this is very hard to achieve,but with some races such as the Cambs,one stat at least is 90% successful in that it knocked out nearly half the field,which included some well fancied ones.Track bias stats knocked it down further.
All i'm saying is that the thing that we're all looking for.
I'm not saying that Princes Trust WON'T win,its all opinion based on whatever stuff you use.If he wins well done you,its all conjecture.
Like you i believe that given the right ammo he could do as good as the big boys,as we know he is a mean winner of sprints.
As for being wrong or right,well it depends which way you look at it.It would be too harsh of me to declare that Haggas winners of these races as a percentage is less that the norm 50%,trainers cant do that figure its impossible.
I'm just saying that what we should all look for is stats or equations,which is what i do also, that are better than the norm.Naturally this is very hard to achieve,but with some races such as the Cambs,one stat at least is 90% successful in that it knocked out nearly half the field,which included some well fancied ones.Track bias stats knocked it down further.
All i'm saying is that the thing that we're all looking for.
I'm not saying that Princes Trust WON'T win,its all opinion based on whatever stuff you use.If he wins well done you,its all conjecture.
Its all irrelevant any way cos Highland Acclaim wins. I hope!!
Pipedreamer stop digging you stated Mr Haggas didn't win many straight course handicaps between 5f- 1m I gave you a list of the ones I could remember and I forgot Sholaan and an ex South African horse whose name escapes me but won a big 7f handicap at Ascot and other with far more knowledge than me could probably name more! I would say Mr Haggas has a comparable record to any trainer in big handicaps and it's just a case you an invalid point and won't admit it. I hope I'm misunderstanding your 50% comment??? I can't be silly enough to believe you are talking about a 50% strike rate??? No trainer has that in any races never mind ultra competitive handicaps. So I'm clearly missing your point.
But to be honest you saying Richard Fahey doesn't train Group winners is nonsense, I think you must be confused again. Mayson, Garswood, Utmost Respect, Superior Premuim, Supplicant, Barefoot Lady, Wootton Bassett, Glens Diamond, Sandiva, Anna Pavlova, Mickdaam, Ladys First, Knot In Wood and probably more? but not bad for someone who doesn't train Group winners.
I don't like to go as it about opinions but your's aren't based on facts I'm afraid
But to be honest you saying Richard Fahey doesn't train Group winners is nonsense, I think you must be confused again. Mayson, Garswood, Utmost Respect, Superior Premuim, Supplicant, Barefoot Lady, Wootton Bassett, Glens Diamond, Sandiva, Anna Pavlova, Mickdaam, Ladys First, Knot In Wood and probably more? but not bad for someone who doesn't train Group winners.
I don't like to go as it about opinions but your's aren't based on facts I'm afraid
Well bet I hope you're wrong I'm on Princes Trust and American Hope at 10s and 14s but got side tracked by daydreamer going on!
I'm on Princes Trust and American Hope at 10s and 14s but got side tracked by daydreamer going on!
You have to give a speculative shout to HEAVY METAL...@20s... Johnston horses hard to predict... but Heavy Metal was in better form when winning at Ascot... at 7f... was agonising 2nd at Goodwood... 4lb extra this time... Franny has chosen this over Almargo... and hopefully is on ability rather than faith...
I prefer Johnston horses at Ascot on better ground... so worth a chnace here.
I prefer Johnston horses at Ascot on better ground... so worth a chnace here.
Heaven's Guest @ 12/1 - Somehow the ground at Ascot today is being reported on the softer side of good and there is heavy rain forecast for tomorrow morning/afternoon. This will bring everything into favour for Richard Fahey's gelding. There are currently four ahead of him in the market and any rain will be a negative to them all.
Rain aside, 7f at Ascot is exactly what he wants. Won here last year under Ryan Moore and has run some impressive races this time around. Won the Bunbery, grabbed 2nd just after the line in the Longines, nothing wrong with his Goodwood Mile race on fast ground and surprised Fahey with his 4th in the Ayr Gold Cup on fast.
He doesn't have much on the handicapper but is a classy, consistent sort.
12/1 available everywhere. No way he'll be this price tomorrow.
Rain aside, 7f at Ascot is exactly what he wants. Won here last year under Ryan Moore and has run some impressive races this time around. Won the Bunbery, grabbed 2nd just after the line in the Longines, nothing wrong with his Goodwood Mile race on fast ground and surprised Fahey with his 4th in the Ayr Gold Cup on fast.
He doesn't have much on the handicapper but is a classy, consistent sort.
12/1 available everywhere. No way he'll be this price tomorrow.
I think you are right ... has a great chance if it rains... the Ayr Gold cup is a good guide for this race in recent times ... 4 of the last 5 winners had raced in the Ayr Gold Cup... so BLAINE and HEAVENS GUEST fit that profile... obv Im with Blaine... but HG is not a bad bet if it rains.
A great bet regardless of the rain. The rain will be a plus.
Kevin Ryan is another who doesn't want rain and will be as surprised as everyone else that it has come up easier than good today.
Kevin Ryan is another who doesn't want rain and will be as surprised as everyone else that it has come up easier than good today.
Totally agree with Heavens Guest this horse is bullet proof and if the more sexy ones don't fulfil their hype this horse will be their to take advantage. Really like his Bunbury Cup win over Absolutely So think that's really good form, he is very much like Bronze Angel last week with a lot in his favour and his trainer although he's not a Group winning trainer according to some
is top top notch. Pjay can I ask why you think rain would be against Princes Trust please?
is top top notch. Pjay can I ask why you think rain would be against Princes Trust please?
Speculating as much as I can on such a lightly raced horse slowerthanjohn. You're right to question it as it wouldn't be guaranteed. But he improved last season for the good/firm ground and Pat Dobbs mentioned that day that he liked the ground. Either way I'm opposing him.
Be interesting to see what way Tom Segal goes now shortly. I'm guessing he'll avoid the first four and go for Heaven's Guest, Fort Bastion or Sirius Prospect.
Be interesting to see what way Tom Segal goes now shortly. I'm guessing he'll avoid the first four and go for Heaven's Guest, Fort Bastion or Sirius Prospect.
Tom steered clear of the first four alright and went for Chil the Kite again.
I read where the ground was considered too fast at Newmarket last season. Also Invincible Spirits tend to like cut in the ground but could be wrong. Fort Bastion is interesting for the fact he has gone to Mr O'Meara and he is applying the visor which in recent weeks he has applied headgear to Watchable and Louis The Pious to great effect.
Prince's Trust is by a Galileo mare as well so the ground should not be a problem on pedigree, sometimes the trainers see it differentlybased on the horses action though I suppose - if it rains a lot and Haggas has any qualms he could pull him out but there's a lot of ifs in that sentence.
Also getting towards that stage of the season where if trainers pull them out due to ground there might not be another opportunity for similar prize money plus if they don't act on the ground, they've likely plenty of time to get over it.
Probably over analysis on my part but always worth covering the angles...
Would be preferable if rain held off until after racing but that does n't look likely.
Also getting towards that stage of the season where if trainers pull them out due to ground there might not be another opportunity for similar prize money plus if they don't act on the ground, they've likely plenty of time to get over it.
Probably over analysis on my part but always worth covering the angles...
Would be preferable if rain held off until after racing but that does n't look likely.
Haggas won't pull him out as he's trying to get him qualified for the Balmoral and it's the last qualifier. Top 6 will do.
But I wouldn't be surprised if the field dropped below 16 runners tomorrow.
But I wouldn't be surprised if the field dropped below 16 runners tomorrow.
On breeding Princes Trust should appreciate give but it doesn't always work like that. It's unknown quantity and he maybe even better on it? Time will tell. Outback Traveller gave his Yarmouth win a boost today as well.
Prince's Trust looks the obvious choice but at the price,50/1,I could not let Brazos go unbacked. His Jersey form stands inspection as does his latest effort. Andrea Atzeni on his back is no hindrance either.
Sirius Prospect has place claims too.
Sirius Prospect has place claims too.
Trainers comments about Brazos were extremely positive... but Brittain does get over excited...
seems there coming for Heavens guest... must be raining there...
seems there coming for Heavens guest... must be raining there...
agree on both counts dunlaying (I often seem to agree with you!) - they'll be my two ew bets in the race, market suggests Brazos's effort in the Hungeford Stakes was a fluke, not sure why that should be...
Respect many of the others, particularly Heaven's Guest and Redvers.
Good luck!
Respect many of the others, particularly Heaven's Guest and Redvers.
Good luck!
I think that is because of the time but the Jersey was run at a good clip.
Fort Bastion 2nd week running for me with this horse but O Meara has him now
American Hope out, the ground is at the very least good/soft Chill The Kite will appreciate it.
Too soft for Princes Trust ? Never in the race at any stage !
Ran a stinker, the trainers representative reported that the gelding was unsuited by the ground.
Ran a stinker, the trainers representative reported that the gelding was unsuited by the ground.
have to be honest ...way off the mark there... didnt expect Instransigent to win... he made it look easy.
The trainer was as shocked as anyone that the winner ran so well on the ground. That's racing. There's always a randomness involved.
Happy with Heaven's Guest as a pick. Came in for plenty of money as expected and ran well for 3rd, beating the original market leaders.
Onto the Cesarewitch!
Happy with Heaven's Guest as a pick. Came in for plenty of money as expected and ran well for 3rd, beating the original market leaders.
Onto the Cesarewitch!
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