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sintonian
15 Sep 14 17:37
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Date Joined: 21 Sep 04
| Topic/replies: 3,279 | Blogger: sintonian's blog
I am yet to nail the winner of this race. Thought I had it last year when I had a big bet on Code of Honour at 20s but think he was seriously unlucky that day Cry

LOADS of entries at the mo so it's hard to call from a punting p.o.v.

John Gosden has 5 horses all at 20/1 and under.

One I have had a bet  on so far at a big price is Madeed. He has good 10f form (finished 2nd to The Corsican 2 starts back conceding him 7lb) and has the right profile for the race. Doubts for me are if the horse is a little soft/awkward and the trainer tbh, but at 33/1 with 5 places i'm happy to have a bash. OR is 95 so not guaranteed a run but I can see loads dropping out so we'll see.
Pause Switch to Standard View 27th Sept Cambridgeshire H'cap.
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Report slowerthanjohn September 15, 2014 9:41 PM BST
Mellottie, Halling, Katy Nowaitie, Beauchamp Pilot, Pasternak, Formal Decree, Pipedreamer and last year Educate it's pretty easy reallyCrazy It is my favourite race of the year and been a very lucky race for me but to show what a difficult race it can be two years ago I backed Mukhadram off 101!!! I think this years race is very trappy as the betting suggests, Cornrow ran a great trial over 7f which I seem to remember previous winners Penny Drops and I Cried For You doing. Haggas has yet to win the race but went close many moons ago with Missile and he has a few interesting contenders Princes Trust, Our Channel. Zarwaan the PW selection is interesting as I'm certain he has a big race in him as he was running well when Dunlops weren't generally. Ran a great race in the Britannia when stopped at a crucial stage and that's hot form, the doubt the trip? could improve for it and maybe it's what he wants but is an imponderable.
Report Millerracing67 September 16, 2014 6:03 PM BST
Think Prince of Stars is a group horse in the making.
Would be very interested if he is being aimed at this by Jonny G.
Zarwaan & Mange All are two that i have had a bit ew £££ on this season, both ran well in defeat (placed thankfully)Happy Would be another 2 for my list.
Not played on anything ante-p yet.
Report BJG September 16, 2014 7:17 PM BST
Agree about POS but surely no chance wat so ever of gettin in here bein 85th on the list
Report slowerthanjohn September 17, 2014 10:25 PM BST
A lot of the more fancied ones withdrawn and I'll stick with Cornrow.
Report morpteh mackem September 18, 2014 7:36 AM BST
cornrow for me too
Report Jack Bauer '24' September 18, 2014 6:15 PM BST
I fancy Cornrow too, he looks the right type to me.
Report sintonian September 18, 2014 7:52 PM BST
Well Madeed aint running so that's my bet down the toilet.
Report Fashion Fever September 20, 2014 11:06 PM BST
cant see air pilot getting in with a 5lb pen still
Report sintonian September 21, 2014 1:28 PM BST
It may sound like pocket talk but i'm gobsmacked Meehan took Madeed out of the Cambridgeshire prematurely. It's looks a mistake now that he was pulled out of yesterdays race at Newbury (the one Air Pilot won) due to soft ground.
Report betilyerded September 21, 2014 6:10 PM BST
I like the chances of Tres Coronas despite being 7 yo and running off a higher mark than last year. He has arguably improved and beat the upwardly mobile senockian star at Chester. Versatile regarding ground, you could say he easily won last years race drawn on the wrong side given that Educate ended up with the high drawn horses and there was a fair way back to the next low drawn horse. I backed Nanton as a 9 yo at 40-1 rated 102 and having previously placed in the race before so 40-1 will do me given hes a definite runner and has been aimed at the race.
Report jameschildshieldwinner September 21, 2014 7:46 PM BST
I believe Air Pilot only gets a 4lb penalty.
Report bazzar September 22, 2014 4:17 PM BST
SLOWER, I would stick with 101, this time.
Report BJG September 22, 2014 4:53 PM BST
1    650444    Educate49      5    9-10    Ismail Mohammed67    110    94    117
2    122011    Tenor10 7x      4    9-7    John Ryan100    110    98    117
3    131733    The Rectifier13    7    9-6    Seamus Durack67    106    104    119
4    356410    Energia Davos7    6    9-5    Marco Botti86    105    111    117
5    124035    Gabrial´s Kaka37      4    9-3    Richard Fahey50    103    110    120
6    13930-    Indian Chief377    4    9-2    David Nicholls29    102    —    —
7    0-0771    Queensberry Rules35    4    9-2    William Haggas63    102    95    117
8    72-797    Quick Wit126      7    9-1    Saeed bin Suroor82    101    99    112
9    2-5820    Boomshackerlacker57    4    9-1    George Baker57    101    100    121
10    272847    Spa´s Dancer10    7    9-1    James Eustace    101    110    120
11    501072    Balty Boys21    5    9-0    Brian Ellison62    100    105    122
12    512909    Tres Coronas28    7    9-0    David Barron64    100    118    122
13    108730    Pacific Heights21    5    8-13    Brian Ellison62    99    98    117
14    410742    Bronze Angel14      5    8-13    Marcus Tregoning89    99    112    122
15    11400    Sea Shanty16    4    8-12    Richard Hannon68    98    96    119
16    875102    Don´t Call Me7    7    8-11    David Nicholls29    97    99    122
17    47103    Velox14    4    8-11    Luca Cumani75    97    103    119
18    05-310    Soviet Rock113      4    8-11    Andrew Balding57    97    101    118
19    80-190    Niceofyoutotellme60      5    8-10    Ralph Beckett60    96    90    121
20    002757    Ingleby Angel14      5    8-10    David O´Meara35    96    108    122
21    001301    Big Johnny D17 4x    5    8-10    David Barron64    96    104    120
22    511170    Lawmans Thunder21    4    8-9    Ismail Mohammed67    95    73    97
23    254113    Bartack17      4    8-9    David O´Meara35    95    110    120
24    45858    Bancnuanaheireann35 7    8-9    Michael Appleby70    95    104    120
25    648604    Fort Bastion21      5    8-9    Ruth Carr27    95    111    122
26    611-13    Cornrow21      4    8-8    John Gosden75    94    96    122
27    302610    Dance And Dance63      8    8-8    Ed Vaughan100    94    106    120
28    200-16    Homage31      4    8-8    William Haggas63    94    100    124
29    111177    Genius Boy33      4    8-8    James Tate70    95    95    118
30    040600    Hi There9    5    8-7    Richard Fahey50    93    110    124
31    1-124    Maverick Wave14      3    8-7    John Gosden75    98    84    120
32    066002    Starboard33    5    8-7    David Simcock33    93    99    120
33    00-200    Yeager63    4    8-7    Jeremy Noseda80    93    74    99
34    357880    Chancery21    6    8-7    David O´Meara35    93    101    118
35    0-7162    Forgotten Hero14    5    8-7    Charles Hills69    93    107    122
36    05301    Tinghir7 4x      4    8-7    David Lanigan100    93    100    116
37    123121    Extremity21 4x    3    8-7    Hugo Palmer50    98    102    122
38    165405    King Torus17    6    8-6    Ruth Carr27    92    101    120
39    014226    Spirit Of The Law7      5    8-6    Richard Fahey50    92    104    118
40    622150    Sound Advice21    5    8-6    Keith Dalgleish37    92    105    121
41    72123    Buckstay21      4    8-6    Peter Chapple-Hyam67    92    112    120
42    4-4502    God Willing8    3    8-6    Ed Dunlop60    97    100    119
43    870954    Burano17    5    8-5    Brian Meehan100    91    99    123
44    220341    Tigers Tale21 4x    5    8-5    Roger Teal25    91    102    118
45    2/2121    Air Pilot7 4x    5    8-5    Ralph Beckett60    91    109    129
46    339152    First Flight7    3    8-4    Saeed bin Suroor82    95    102    123
47    363050    Truth Or Dare16    3    8-4    Richard Hannon68    95    95    118
48    121    Basem29      3    8-4    Saeed bin Suroor82    95    88    117
49    141604    Muharrer7    5    8-4    Michael Dods63    91    110    121
50    45-412    Ree´s Rascal48      6    8-4    Jim Boyle33    90    111    120
51    432290    Ansaab7    6    8-3    Alan McCabe33    89    107    118
52    513915    Munaaser36      3    8-3    Sir Michael Stoute93    94    93    121
53    711115    Top Diktat119      6    8-3    Gary Moore50    89    113    119
54    918184    Cashpoint27      9    8-2    Ian Williams67    88    104    120
55    028488    Ifwecan33    3    8-2    Mark Johnston63    93    98    119
56    314051    Knight Owl18 4x    4    8-2    James Fanshawe    88    110    120
57    000607    Mabait7      8    8-1    David Simcock33    87    84    107
58    005404    Moonday Sun7    5    8-1    Amanda Perrett50    87    107    121
59    31512    Mange All16    3    8-1    William Haggas63    92    108    124
60    383127    Angelic Upstart16      6    8-0    Andrew Balding57    86    102    120
61    52221    One Pekan33      4    8-0    Roger Varian86    86    110    118
62    744323    Jodies Jem42      4    8-0    William Jarvis67    86    109    119
63    40-11    Gm Hopkins15 4x    3    8-0    John Gosden75    91    91    120
64    221116    Puzzle Time15    4    7-13    Giles Bravery100    85    106    117
65    121185    Halation7    3    7-13    David Simcock33    90    103    117
66    849009    Busatto7    4    7-13    Mark Johnston63    85    102    124
67    111534    Arab Dawn7    3    7-13    Hughie Morrison100    90    96    118
68    221    Lacan107    3    7-12    Clive Cox82    89    86    115
69    11U626    Border Bandit17    6    7-12    Tracy Waggott50    84    100    117
70    312-88    Ty Gwr8      5    7-11    Brian Ellison62    83    110    121
71    271115    Chain Of Events85      7    7-10    Michael Wigham100    82    107    116
72    226467    Braidley28    3    7-10    James Bethell    87    109    117
73    74141    Nanton35      12    7-10    Jim Goldie43    82    79    113
74    081210    Top Of The Glas7      3    7-10    Brian Ellison62    87    99    116
75    441340    Rydan28    3    7-9    Robert Mills50    86    107    115
76    36-370    Big Whiskey150    4    7-8    Edward Creighton50    80    —    —
77    221528    Coincidently7    4    7-8    Alan Bailey100    80    93    116
78    574700    Showboating11    6    7-8    Alan McCabe33    80    100    116
79    854164    Eurystheus15      5    7-8    Michael Appleby70    80    109    113
80    02411P    Miller Beach11    4    7-7    J F Levins50    79    103    107
81    1-2023    Miguel Grau34      4    7-7    Roger Varian86    79    84    111
82    364431    Karaka Jack35      7    7-6    Jim Goldie43    78    92    111
83    261053    Sheila´s Buddy8    5    7-6    J S Moore33    78    99    112
84    315760    Another For Joe9      6    7-6    Jim Goldie43    78    102    113
85    252053    Ventura Quest7    3    7-5    Richard Fahey50    82    98    112
86    81217    Unison30      4    7-5    Peter Makin67    77    82    111
87    505847    Anton Chigurh24    5    7-3    Philip McBride75    75    86    116
88    061418    Desert Ranger10    3    7-1    James Tate70    78    93    106
89    962377    Tight Lipped15      5    6-13    James Eustace    71    87    107
90    476409    Commissar49      5    6-12    Ian Williams67    70    88    105
91    44144    Tiger Jim17      4    6-12    Jim Goldie43    70    95    104
92    274565    Order Of Service9    4    6-11    Jim Goldie43    69    81    105
93    026460    Mayfield Boy9    3    6-9    Mel Brittain    72    83    102
94    760626    Silver Duke22    3    6-3    Jim Goldie43    66    64    93
95    237421    Plucky Dip7 4x    3    6-2    John Ryan100    65    81    87
96    567327    El Mirage31    4    5-13    Dean Ivory40    57    76    91
Report slowerthanjohn September 22, 2014 9:30 PM BST
Forgive me bazzar for being thickWinkI don't understand?
Report slowerthanjohn September 22, 2014 9:32 PM BST
But bet surely you have to mark up Educates effort to win last year for going off a straight course??
Report sintonian September 22, 2014 10:17 PM BST
Seriously cannot believe Meehan pulled out Madeed Crazy
Report Facts September 22, 2014 10:55 PM BST
Cornrow for me.
Report deepingfox September 23, 2014 12:29 AM BST
BRONZE ANGEL here, upward profile, top claimer rumoured to be lined up to take weight down to 8st 8lb and won the race 2 years ago, performing well over shorter LTO,  whats not to like.
Report mac99 September 23, 2014 8:24 AM BST
Like about six right now foremost of which is Niceofyoutotellme, looks primed for a good run and has track form .
Report Facts September 23, 2014 9:19 AM BST
deepingfox     23 Sep 14 00:29 
BRONZE ANGEL here, upward profile, top claimer rumoured to be lined up to take weight down to 8st 8lb and won the race 2 years ago, performing well over shorter LTO,  whats not to like.


Looked at this , and you're right, what's not to like ! Happy  the current price c 20/1 is bound to shorten.
Report stevo1 September 23, 2014 11:12 AM BST
Cornrow as well for me if settling cracking chance, Air Pilot may not run if ground firms up needs cut so Cornrow could go off around 5/1?
Report sintonian September 23, 2014 11:21 AM BST
Lots of people seem to be jumping on Cornrow ...why?
Report IrisDeBalme September 23, 2014 11:35 AM BST
BRONZE Angel likes it very fast... I have had my fingers burnt few times early season and was not declared becuse of the ground... is there a chance of that happening... as maybe some rain tomorrow... dry rest of week tho...
Report stevo1 September 23, 2014 11:39 AM BST
Looks like lots of improvement to come after only 5 starts,good weight goes on any ground,trainer targets race.Not many declared open to much improvement apart from couple inc Air Pilot who needs cut in ground.
Report sintonian September 23, 2014 12:20 PM BST
Is 5 starts enough though? Experience is vital in races like this
Report stevo1 September 23, 2014 12:30 PM BST
He has run in 5 double figure fields so far, lto was competitive 17 runner handicap but 30 horses plus spread across track who knows? But he is a prominent racer so that hopefully will help.
Report bazzar September 23, 2014 1:49 PM BST
SLOWER, it was deliberately cryptic, but you have access to
the past form which contained your 101 bet, I suggest a repeat!!!
Report slowerthanjohn September 23, 2014 7:21 PM BST
Well I'm hoping that you mean the jockey and not the horse BAZZARWink but if you do mean the horse he has an obvious chance as he looked very good that day but not many horses win 2 Cambridgeshires.

Cornrow is the horse with any amount of improvement and John Gosden does target the race and although the form of his last run isn't working out very well, it was an inadequate trip and after travelling well, he really rallied well and ran a great trial for this. I backed Air Pilot on Saturday and he was very impressive but this is a better race and the ground was soft will it be as soft this Saturday? He has form on quicker ground but you have to feel his ideal conditions are with plenty of give, plus I don't think it's ideal coming out so quick again?
Report unclepuncle September 23, 2014 7:36 PM BST
Tinghir and Fort Bastian for me.
Report willie the milk September 23, 2014 7:49 PM BST
If Air Pilot gets in, he wins
Report unclepuncle September 23, 2014 7:56 PM BST
^ On paper he does look a penalty kick but he did have a very long time off the track and then trying to follow up just a week after his comeback might not be easy. Look at Muthmir - based on his Portland win he clearly should have been a shoo-in for the Stewards Cup but got beat a week after his impressive York win.
Report slowerthanjohn September 23, 2014 8:05 PM BST
So Willie have you gone all in?
Report IrisDeBalme September 23, 2014 10:22 PM BST
Air Pilot... lto may be a bit flattering as won on soft going ... not sure a race on faster surface a week later will bring out the best in the horse...

Think he is a false price... will be bigger on Saturday... and dont think he will win

CORNROW and EDUCATE for me.
Report sintonian September 23, 2014 10:25 PM BST
12f on Soft at Newbs is so different from 9f on Good over a straight track at HQ, but we all know that. Impressive as he was, even if he gets a run, I couldn't have him on my mind tbh.
Report willie the milk September 24, 2014 3:10 PM BST
10f on Sat Sint although it was soft it still will de differing conditions.... but he won so so easy that 4points won't stop him and the likely fast pace will make it feel like 10f+.
Not "All in" but decent enough bet
Report johnnyrant September 24, 2014 5:01 PM BST
Think the going will be on the slow side of good tomorrow but even with heavy dews it should dry out by Sat, which makes me think the trip is likely to be a bit sharp for Air Pilot. Factor in potential bounce and too many doubts for me to justify his short price.
Report Millerracing67 September 24, 2014 5:13 PM BST
What the going is like for 2moro wont have any baring on sats race?
Prob be g/f come Sat if weather is dry.
Would not expect to see the fav line-up if so.
Report slowerthanjohn September 24, 2014 8:04 PM BST
I don't the trip will be a problem at all for Air Pilot he's not short of speed and even the ground as long as it's not fast in any way. If he does make the line up which he stills needs 10 to drop out then I will be having a saver on him. I'd just prefer a longer time between the races, as even though he won easily but on that ground it still has to take something out of him and he has been fragile. I'll be honest and say I hope he's balloted out and then no one loses Wink
Report johnnyrant September 25, 2014 10:30 AM BST
Racing Post ‏@RacingPost 4 mins

Ante-post favourite Air Pilot misses the cut for Saturday's Cambridgeshire by one
Report li0nhead September 25, 2014 12:12 PM BST
Cannot believe the stupidity of not declaring Air Pilot for the silver race, its due to go up 12lb soon.

That 12lb is lost due to the trainer not covering the entry with a Silver race entry.
Report Millerracing67 September 25, 2014 12:20 PM BST
Think he is going up 18lbs after Sats romp (sure i heard that on atr)
Personally think the ground will be near g/f by 2moro, that & the drop in trip would have went against his chances imo.
Report bazzar September 25, 2014 1:51 PM BST
Beware of a trainer named RALPH and pronouncing it RAFE!!!!!!!
If he had thought it through he should have won before with his horse
and then won as he actually did to pick up the double penalty to be
sure of getting in.
Report bazzar September 25, 2014 3:31 PM BST
Slower, you are missing the point with that 101 result,
it definitely was NOT a fluke!!!
Report unclepuncle September 26, 2014 8:06 AM BST
With my main antepost bet Fort Bastion drawn very low in 2 I've had a couple of savers on Cornrow (7/1) and Bancnuanaheirann (33/1)drawn very high.

I've also had to throw a few quid on God Willing who I tipped up last year after his debut as a potential top class horse.Cry
Report sintonian September 26, 2014 1:54 PM BST
Unoriginal here but I have backed Velox eachway at 10/1, sly-bet are offering 6 places. Ground and trip all look plum, yard still in good form and he's only had 10 runs which is not that many for a 4yo. Cam Hardie back on. I can't have the favourite at all tbh.
Report mac99 September 26, 2014 1:54 PM BST
Also like Bancnuanaheirann close running on fourth when ridden by  W carson  two years back ,  mullen  strong enough to get a bit more out of him ,  Appleby in form and  Horse likes  g/f gl
Report sintonian September 26, 2014 1:57 PM BST
Do not bet with Ladbrokes or Coral on this race unless you're going win only, s****s only offering 4 places.
Report sintonian September 26, 2014 2:05 PM BST
Quotes from Cumani's website after his last run.

Velox ran a very satisfactory Cambridgeshire trial in the concluding mile handicap at Doncaster and might well have gone very close to winning had he not been caught a bit far back in a steadily-run race and then found trouble when beginning his challenge. He left the impression that the straight nine furlongs at Newmarket will suit him very well and if there is a silver lining to this unlucky defeat it is that he didn’t pick up a penalty for the big race.
Report Steamship September 26, 2014 3:18 PM BST
Can I ask if any of you have thoughts on Buckstay?
Report unclepuncle September 26, 2014 3:30 PM BST
Looks like the fast ground and tailwind is massively favouring those ridden handy..
Report PJay September 26, 2014 4:30 PM BST
BRONZE ANGEL at 20/1.
Report Millerracing67 September 26, 2014 4:46 PM BST
Going to be fast ground 2moro.
Get ready for a handful of NRs Plain
Report sintonian September 26, 2014 5:14 PM BST
Gosden wins the Silver version. Stalls 2 & 11 first two home.
Report sintonian September 26, 2014 5:15 PM BST
11 & 2 & 8 first three. Mange All 4th from 24
Report Millerracing67 September 26, 2014 5:16 PM BST
& came over to the high side draw ??
The plot thickens ?
Report sintonian September 26, 2014 5:21 PM BST
I know, odd really. Would be inclined to think there is no bias.

Billies offering 7 places now btw.
Report sintonian September 26, 2014 5:45 PM BST
Buckstay has a chance Steamship. He's been in good form recently, upped 10lb this season. Conditions look ok for him??
Report unclepuncle September 26, 2014 5:53 PM BST
Middle to stands side looks the place to be and with Gosden/Buick winning the Silver Cup in a canter up the stands rail (especially considering he had to come all the way over from stall 11) I can see Cornrow going off 5/1 or under. Have lumped on at 8/1's with a view to layoff.
Report metro john September 26, 2014 8:28 PM BST
Corncrow and God Willing  make most appeal to me,the latter is a little disappointing but still capable at a decent price e/w, for the places Spa's dancer could put up a good show?
Report slowerthanjohn September 26, 2014 8:39 PM BST
Well there can be no excuses for Cornrow tomorrow everything looks in place for him. Bronze Angel looks sure to run well as all looks ideal for him as well but I feel Cornrow has the more scope for improvement and thought his last run over 7f was a fantastic trial for this. Good luck to everyone especially those who are on CornrowWink
Report Paterson92 September 27, 2014 10:18 AM BST
GABRIALS KAKA ... today is the day! Trip fine, hold up horse who will get the pace required in this big field. The ground is the only reservation but with SkyBet paying 6 places and Hills paying 7 places, 25/1 can't be ignored. I've saved the best to last ... JAMIE SPENCER IS NOT THE JOCKEY TODAY!!! The mighty Pat Smullen takes over!
Report FELTFAIR September 27, 2014 10:30 AM BST
Desperately difficult race but need an interest. Small e-w Niceofyoutotellme.
Report Steamship September 27, 2014 12:53 PM BST
Velox looks sure to go well but it's that high numbers that I don't like. Buckstay seems a good price but I don't do well following Chapple Hyam. The pin has come down on Fort Bastion, yard have had 3 winners in the past week, got the low draw, only a short head behind Cornrow last time. I have managed to convince myself.

Good luck all
Report ReaseHeath September 27, 2014 1:41 PM BST
similar thoughts on draw, pace high but faster ground low theoretically

Velox looks to have a lot going for him so him ew at 12/1, I also like Gabrial's Kaka so him also and, although it goes against the grain to back more than two usually, I feel obliged to cover the draw so Educate ew at 20/1 - only negative is that he is 6lbs higher than last year but I generally like horses who've been there, seen it and done it in these big field handicaps.

Small stakes because it's difficult.

Trainers of Educate and Gabrial's Kaka seem to think they'd prefer a bit more ease in the surface but their form does n't necessarily support that - although it's quick for the time of year, it's not like the rattling fast ground you sometimes get in high summer.

Good luck all, quite prepared for it to unravel spectacularly later on...Grin
Report PJay September 27, 2014 2:23 PM BST
Gabrial's Kaka definitely has more improvement and was very much on my shortlist. But they have always indicated that he prefers anything but firm. Spencer also mentioned it after the Spring Cup. I wouldn't read as much into going preferences as some but in such a competitive field it has to be taken into consideration. If not today he'll have a big day next season.

In any case I'm more than happy with Bronze Angel as a pick. Has won here in the past of course but more importantly has shown hints this year that he is more than capable. Louis Steward's 5lb claim (49 wins) is a more than pleasing addition.


But it is the Cambridgeshire. Huge field and possible biases aplenty. In the words of Ryan Moore, "This can turn into a stupid contest"

Can't wait.
Report mac99 September 27, 2014 4:00 PM BST
well done winners , good run by Niceofyoutotellme , cunning old devil Treggoning !!
Report Facts September 27, 2014 4:15 PM BST
Yep, Wd winners. Especially deeping fox, who made me relook at bronze angel - thank you Happy
Report unclepuncle September 27, 2014 4:31 PM BST
Well done winners - hacked up. He's a horse I've backed numerous times this season.Cry

Funny how the draw completely changed from the Silver Cup less than 24 hours previously where the low horses all came over??
Report PJay September 27, 2014 4:34 PM BST
Delighted with that. Won it well. Louis had him in the right place and timed it perfectly.

Ralph Beckett was very visibly gutted. Unlucky if you were on Niceofyoutotellme.
Report bazzar September 27, 2014 7:53 PM BST
slower than everybody, just would not believe his eyes and the form of 101.
Report sintonian September 27, 2014 11:34 PM BST
wd Pj and Steamship with Buckstay placing.


Never see the race but Cumani keeps going close in the race, Swop a few years ago. Another place for me but yet to back the winner!
Report mac99 September 28, 2014 10:49 AM BST
mac99 27 Sep 13 22:51 Joined: 18 May 10 | Topic/replies: 1,132 | Blogger: mac99's blog
I think Bronze Angel  has the best form in the race  by a few pounds


from last years posts

It gets worse , a work friend called me after the race asking me  how well i had done with in the race  after i had assured him that BA would win the Cambridgeshire this year some months ago  , suppose this is a case classic of  after timing , or another whinging  hard luck racing  story, be assured  it is the latter  . Cry  just thought the horse was   becoming a bit of a rogue , hence the application of blinkers and  running over  the seemingly unsuitable trip  of seven furlongs , all part of the plan  it seems .

well done to those who cottoned on to a cleverly conceived  handicap plot  and plenty did on here , put him up  twelve pounds mr handicapper do it for me and others who missed out Mischief
Report pipedreamer September 28, 2014 11:24 AM BST
Nice performance by Bronze Angel,i wonder if having been near one of the 2 plum draws helped?,possibly a question of more clay than topsoil?.
Notice previous Kempton winners failed again,a bit like the horses that can ONLY do the biz at Gooodwood,[Pipedreamer an exception].
Once again it will be proven that horses beaten in this race will win group races.Im heartily fed up with pundits saying "hes a group horse running in a handicap",just like the Hunt Cup,they come on telly going on about  a group horse is needed to win it,How many have said winners of the race went on to win a group race?none?.
Look at the winning trainers of the Cambs previously,Wigham, Morrison,Mohammed,Tate,Swinbank,Butler,Harris,Given,hardly group horse trainers!!!.Its the same as the English Classics,Pundits come on after Royal Ascot with quotes about the winners for the next years classics,yet since 1971 although there have been around 171 classic races run, since then how many Royal Ascot winners have won an English Classic?.Answer?.THREE!!!!!!!.
Same as the Triumph hurdle,since 1967 only 3 winners of the Triumph Hurdle won the Champion Hurdle the following year.Things may change with this stats for this race  as its not the race it used to be,that is in its a smaller field these days that probably will affect the type of horse needed to win it.
No doubt we will continue to be treated to more "Expert" analysis in the future from these guys on the box,i just wish people would do some analysis,well research is the work i'm looking for,but then that would require them do actually the the minimum of work!!
If YOU are a person that pours over form stats and OTHER STUFF perhaps you would like to respond?
Report FELTFAIR September 28, 2014 11:51 AM BST
I pour over the clock.
Report SOULDANCER September 28, 2014 12:03 PM BST
pipedreamer, good post. I would never have thought your Royal Ascot, English Classics facts were right. Thanks for the heads up.
Report PJay September 28, 2014 12:32 PM BST
I wouldn't get too caught up with it pipedreamer. If unexposed horses are being over-hyped and over-bet that can only be a good thing.
Report slowerthanjohn September 28, 2014 3:32 PM BST
Bazzar I saved on Bronze Angel as I backed him ew at 20s as thought he was sure to run his race but got caught up in the Cornrow hype so not as profitable as it could have been but happy enough.

The point about a Group horse is a valid one but like I mentioned with Mukhadram earlier in the thread some of these horses aren't battled hardened and fully matured to cope with these tests. The other point is with Bronze Angel for example he seems best with a big field and a fast pace, how many Group races do you get like that?

I think the best example I can remember is a handicap at Royal Ascot in 1995 Celeric the future Gold Cup winner finished 11th off 83 fair enough the 1m 4f trip was too short but back in 17th off just 82 was Pilsudski who went on to win 6 Group 1's! Two Group horses in a handicap but just like Mukhadram they were not the finished article.
Report Jack Bauer '24' September 28, 2014 3:58 PM BST
I backed Pilsudski that day. Taipan another future Gp1 winner was beaten in that race too.
Report slowerthanjohn September 28, 2014 4:55 PM BST
I didn't realise that Jack so 3 future Group 1 winners beaten in a handicapCrazyIt would tame lions!
Report Millerracing67 September 28, 2014 7:11 PM BST
Wd Angel backers Cool

Place ££ for me Happy (both)
Report bazzar September 29, 2014 10:49 AM BST
Glad you backed him eventually, I am concerned with letting out
too much info especially if I have not finished with my bets with
horse concerned, if too much is put forward then the price goes if
some punters take the hint.
I am not a big gambler but I get it right on many occasions,
in the early 80s I worked with several young guys who liked a bet
and had a £1.00 ew ante post bet, which gave me a £3,667 return,
I met one of these people and told him that BRONZE ANGEL was a certainty
for the Cambridgeshire, he asked what price it was and I told him 33/1
with the firm he was going to, he scoffed at a 33/1 shot being a cert,
saw him yesterday and he remarked, "GO ON RUB IT IN" I said why should I,
since it's obvious you didn't back it, my mate did all right as he trust me!!
Report pipedreamer September 29, 2014 11:42 AM BST
Feltfair are you referring to sectional timing?.Time is ok but it tells you who is probable fastest horse on time.Problem arises if then said horse runs in a race run at a slow pace what happens then?.Two year old esp because of the policy of packing them off early to stud means that most are probably too backward to run,those that do run and win do well but are then likely to be surpassed by later maturing horses.
leading up to the Classics some horses can even improve dramatically,and the only way of knowing is gallop reports and some can be very misleading.
So i feel that factoring in time is only useful to a point.Have you have spotted some other angle that can be used regards time?
I find it better to watch the pace of a race WITHIN the race,not neccessarily the final time,race comments like "ran on well through tiring horses"is a ridiculous positive that some pundits use,what you are looking for is horses that can go past horses that are QUICKENING not tiring.Small example was Ruler Of The Worlds first win as a 3 year old in Ireland the second started to draw away,Ruler Of The World went after it and run it down,and if you look you can see that they were pulling away from the placed horses,so obviously it wasnt a case of the second merely being caught because he was tiring.
I'll respond to other posts later,its obvious that there are smart punters on the forum here and i would very much like to communicate and swap knowledge to hopefully everyones benefit.
Report FELTFAIR September 29, 2014 8:45 PM BST
No not sectional timing but adjusted times based upon performances against track standard times.

For Saturday the top four based on this approach were

1. Balty Boys - Discarded because of doubts re getting the trip.
2. Niceofyoutotellme - Backed each way 4.8/1 in the place market.
3. Bronze Angel - Discarded because of up and down performances this year.
4. Gabrials Kaka - Discarded because of perceived bad draw.

Yes I could have backed them all but you can very quickly lose x4 times your money.

It is the only method that has given me a consistent level of return coupled with other parameters,such as draw, trip, etc.
Report knot in wood September 29, 2014 8:56 PM BST
i wonder if velox would have won if drawn low.(hypothetical i know)

bronze angel run well since royal ascot,high draw at goodwood a big no no.

bronze angel and niceofyoutotellme be nice lays if they come out next year on soft ground.
Report slowerthanjohn September 29, 2014 9:11 PM BST
Jesus FELTFAIR you're a hard man to please! Bronze Angel up and down performances??? He has been a model of consistency this. 7f isn't his trip and he has ran some decent races at that trip, he won and was placed at York, placed at Doncaster and ran a great race at Goodwood from a terrible draw. I'd love to own such a up and down performerWink
Report FELTFAIR September 29, 2014 9:14 PM BST
Yes,yes. You win some and you lose some.
Report knot in wood September 29, 2014 9:14 PM BST
and good-soft behind heavy metal at ascot.
Report pipedreamer September 30, 2014 12:43 PM BST
Feltfair,Balty Boys just missed being one of the horses in the 90% successful bunch,28 winners out of the last 31 years,[enables you to diss quite a few horses],and his victory at Epsom of all places hardly gave you encouragement.

Same as Cornrow and Tigers Tale and Extremity,those that can only do the biz at Kempton and Goodwood need to have a lot more goinf for them.Have a listen to the post race comments from the trainers of the winner and second,extremely enlightening as per that race.
In the analysis on the forum,very few posters mention a horses preference for certain courses,whether horses are speed horses or as Nicky Henderson said about his Gold cup winner after he was beaten on a speed track,commenting that the horses needed a hill at the finish.
What we are all looking for is a horse like Viking Flagship,who could respond when asked to dig deep on the Cheltenham hill,and still have enough speed to win at Aintree.
Most speed horses will run all day on a level  galloping course with a long straight,but when then hitting a hill finish empty out,E.G. One Man.Still Im rambling,a lot of you may already know all this and i'm wasting my time,would you like to comment so as to know whos who please?.Then i wont end up insulting certain peoples   knowledge,[nothing worse than being preched to.
Report bazzar September 30, 2014 2:32 PM BST
Pipedreamer, the way I looked at BRONZE ANGEL and it's
possibility of a second win, was that in usual circumstances
he should have gone up in the weights from his previous win
in Cambridgeshire, the miss as a 4yo helped him because of an injury,
however he showed he was back to something like his 3yo form when
he ran 4th in Royal Hunt Cup and later against LOUIS THE PIOUS AT 7f,
the trainer used young Steward very shrewdly and the lad does not panic.
in a series of past winners only one horse ran a faster time  than BZ
and he was the 4yo BEAUCHAMP PILOT who won on firm going whilst BZ won on good going,
to my way of thinking everything fitted perfectly!!!!!
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