MELBOURNE CUP

Are you staying east for December - Sha Tin 14th Dec and Happy Valley the weds before are a must.

Will be in Dallas then, staying with my daughter, but will be in HK Oct 17-19th.

Backed Mutual Regard....thought it was a solid enough win in the Ebor.

Was tempted by Van Percy but he'll need to win the Geelong Cup to get in....not impossible...Dunaden completed that double and Bauer went mightly close.

Also got a pretty decent bet on Adelaide for the Cox Plate. Would have an outstanding chance of he goes for that.

Anyone hear anything about Ernest Hemingway?

Godolphin usually have a couple for this race each year and have gone close on a couple of occasions. I like Ahzeemah who was a little unlucky not to win the Goodwood Cup behind Cavalryman in my opinion. Not sure if he is guaranteed a run or not?

Godolphin have opened stables in Australia so its a fair bet that they would like to make a big statement in Oz so will pay attention to their entries.

Murtagh has expressed an interest in the MC for Mutual Regard and horse has nice profile, so will keep eye on that one.Adelaide is lightly raced and being a Galileo should stay but is out of Elnadim mare so might there be a stamina doubt for 14f should he be given an entry?

Like the look of Gai Waterhouse's fav The Offer so any comments from Aussie contributors on that one?

Meant 16f not 14f of course re Adelaide. Ernest Hemingway dosn't appear to have any entries so don't know what situation is there. Anyone?

I see that Saeed Bin S has mentioned that Cavalryman will be aimed at the MC and will be sent to Oz with Willing Foe plus one other to be named.

Interesting how aussies train.  The Offer is to run a prep over 8f on Saturday having won over 16f last time. He has a turn of foot for a stayer and is clearly better than when with AOB.

Yep, Gai Waterhouse somehow builds loads of muscle and bulk into them. Fiorente, her first winner of the race I believe, looked totally physically different from when he finished 2nd the year before.

I would have thought Ernest would have prepared for this behind Leading Light in the Irish Leger. Dammit Apob get him on the plane!

Nice to see a good thread started already chaps, had 2 ante post bets for the Aussie Big Un's later in the season -

Terrubi for the Melbourne Cup and Dan Excel for the Cox Plate

2 x Singles (EW)
1 x EW double

Something to keep an eye on as the Valley gets things underway this coming weekend !!!

Gonna be awesome !!

RP today

Estimate heads British entry for Melbourne Cup
By Lewis Porteous 7:02AM 2 SEP 2014

THE QUEEN'S Gold Cup winner Estimate and popular stayer Red Cadeaux spearhead a strong British team among a total entry of 148 for the A$6.2 million Emirates Melbourne Cup on November 4.

RELATED LINKS

    Full list of entries courtesy of Racing Victoria

If Estimate was to contest the race that stops a nation she would become the second Melbourne Cup runner for her owner, who watched Arabian Story carry her colours to sixth back in 1997.

The Sir Michael Stoute-trained mare, who finished runner-up in the Lonsdale Cup at York last month, and dual runner-up Red Cadeaux are joined by the likes of globetrotter Side Glance, the Marco Botti-trained duo Dandino and Seismos and Godolphin's Goodwood Cup winner Cavalryman.

Ireland's best hopes appear to rest with Lonsdale Cup winner Pale Mimosa, trained by Melbourne Cup-winner Dermot Weld, and Johnny Murtagh's Mutual Regard and Royal Diamond.

A total of 31 overseas entries were received for the race on Tuesday morning, including the return of Japanese runners for just the second time since Delta Blues and Pop Rock dominated in 2006, with Admire Rakti and Bande among the nation's possible runners.

"The Emirates Melbourne Cup is the world's premier staying race and the quality of the local and international entries for this year's race is really pleasing," said Racing Victoria's Greg Carpenter.

He added: "This year marks the changing of the guard in many ways with recent winners Dunaden, Americain and reigning champion Fiorente now retired to stud, the latter two here in Victoria.

"We have entries from seven countries and are excited to welcome Japanese participation for the first time since 2010, along with renewed interest from German trainers.

"The Australian-trained contingent, led by Gai Waterhouse's Sydney Cup winner The Offer, carries much promise and the stage is set for yet another brilliant renewal of the Emirates Melbourne Cup."

As well as ante-post favourite The Offer, 2012 winner Green Moon and last year's Caulfield Cup winner Fawkner - who are among 12 entries for four-time Cup-winning owner Lloyd Williams - feature in the home team's entry.

Weights for the Melbourne Cup will be revealed on Tuesday, September 16, with first acceptances for the race due on Tuesday, October 7.

Is Adelaide being transferred to an Australian trainer or is he running in O'Brien's name and if so, will they use a local jockey? 3yo's carry 7-11 (bit low for Joseph)....not sure if Adelaide a 3yo or a 4yo though with the change of hemisphere?

Melbourne Cup Field           
      
Puissance De Lune         
Fiorente          
Sea Moon     
Dandino (GB)     
Green Moon          
Mount Athos (GB)       
Ahzeemah (UAE)          
Bayrir       
Brown Panther (GB)       
Red Cadeaux (GB)       
Royal Empire (UAE)       
Very Nice Name (FR)          
Brigantin          
Carlton House          
Ethiopia       
It's A Dundeel (NZ)          
Jet Away       
Seville          
Simenon (IRE)          
Voleuse De Coeurs (IRE)       
Willing Foe (UAE)     
Admire Rakti (JPN)          
Araldo       
Beaten Up     
Castlzeberg          
Gold Ship (JPN)    
Hawkspur          
Kelinni          
Kesampour          
Main Sequence (GB)       
Michelangelo     
My Quest For Peace       
Nevis          
Pakal          
Pale Mimosa (IRE)       
Prince Cheri          
Royal Descent          
Royal Diamond (IRE)       
Thought Worthy          
Top Trip (FR)          
Verema (FR)          
Ernest Hemingway (IRE)       
Forgotten Voice (GB)          
Galileo's Choice (IRE)       
Glencadam Gold          
Joshua Tree (GB)       
Lost In The Moment (UAE)
Now We Can (FR)          
Sneak A Peek     
Star Rolling          
Sun Central (GB)     
Super Cool          
Waldpark          
Au Revoir (FR)     
Colour My World     
Dear Demi          
Glen's Diamond (GB)          
Hammerfest (FR)    
Kindergarten Kid (FR)          
Kingdoms          
Masked Marvel          
Moriarty       !
Motivado          
Mourayan       
Opinion (GB)    

Not much help until we get the weights.

Apologies,the wrong field

Anyway found the correct field,had a brief look,and La Amistad is fascinating if it turns up?,no run yet this year but that was a terrific  effort,feel time running out mind for more experience?

From what I heard...it was the Coolmore Australia team who have been begging Aidan to bring Adelaide over for the cox and there's limited opportunities for him in Europe with Australia set to take up the sort of races you'd expect Adelaide to compete in.

The weights will be interesting....I don't think he'll be able to get the southern hempishere 3 yr old allowance....as a four year old Grandera had to carry the same weight as the horses 5 years and above and actually gave weight to Lonhro who was 4 at the time.

I'd imagine Adelaide would have to carry the weights for a four year old.

The Offer ran good prep beaten 2 lengths over 8f. trimmed to 12/1

On Adelaide, he's got 56kg for the Cox Plate, so he's receiving 3kg from the mature horses.

http://www.risa.com.au/FreeFields/Weights.aspx?Key=2014Oct25,VIC,Moonee%20Valley

Also, Ryan Moore said he's likely to ride in the Cox Plate, so I'd think Adelaide would be his mount.

ME2

Adelaide will  be in a yard of bullies.....and will be in a world of pain the last 220m of the Cox Plate

Gai Waterhouse is training The Offer on the track, gradually stepping him up in  distance. So far, the trip has been an inadequate 8f 9f 10f but he has been running on strongly.I'm sure that he will go close in the MC.

Van Percy being renamed Lord Van Percy to avoid confusion with Australian horse Van Persie. Alosy (My) Ambivelant.  I presume all wagers stand?

interesting move on Red Caudeaux in the last 5 minutes ;)

Put up by Pricewise this morning.

Wages stand, Jan.

Sandown, does The Offer not have a little too much weight after winning the Group 1 earlier in the year iyo? What do the Aussies on the forum also think?

Sandown, does The Offer not have a little too much weight after winning the Group 1 earlier in the year iyo?



Possibly, Sintonian but let's remember that presently  it equates to 8-13  and he is a big strong horse. I'd be more concerned if it comes up fast for this horse although looking at past runnings the going description given is mostly  "good" or if not then on the soft side.

Anyway, with this race it appears that what happens form-wise in the 2 weeks or so before the race can have a big impact on chances and prices, as can the draw.

It's such huge prize money that getting the horse to peak on the day matters more than what happens in recent races and winners come from last time out winners to down the field runs.

I'm keeping an open mind for the moment and haven't gone in hard yet although I have backed The Offer. I will keep tabs on this thread whilst I'm over there and will update, if I remember.But Aussie contributors views would certainly be welcome.

Any idea if FOUNDRY (Former  Ballydoyle) is being aimed at Melbourne Cup?

Foundry withdrawn at last forfeit stage

http://www.racingpost.com/horses/result_home.sd?race_id=612127&r_date=2014-10-11&popup=yes#results_top_tabs=re_&results_bottom_tabs=ANALYSIS

SEEMS THE MARKET HAS MOVED FOLLOWING THE HERBERT POWER STAKES (GROUP 2 QUALITY HANDICAP)

Thanks for the update! :)

I also backed The Offer.

Has a big weight to carry after his win in the Sydney Cup but as a three year old back in Ireland he lumped top weight of 10stone / 63.5kg when beating the older horses around Naas...pretty tough performance that....reckon Gai is bringing him along sweetly for is just as she did for the Sydney cup....

Anyone got a minute to explain how it is they wittle them down to the final field in this?

Has Stipulate got a chance of making the final decs?

Stipulate looks like he is 26th on the list atm, Star, & pretty sure the max field is 24? Dandino is out though so that puts him up to 25. You're certainly looking in better shape than my strongest AP fancy in the race - Van Percy, now re-named Lord Van Percy who is down in 37th on the decs list atm

Cavalryman has the class to take this.

Anyone got the up to date list in ballot order?

The only ones I can find have Stipulate way down in like 54 (although they are from a week or two ago). I did find a list where he was 26 but can't find the damn link!

2014 Melbourne Cup – Latest order of entry (October 27)


The Mike Moroney-trained Araldo has moved into the prized 24th place in the Melbourne Cup order of entry after second declarations were released on Monday.

Just 40 horses remain in contention for the $6 million handicap on Tuesday week with six entries that were inside the top 24 in the previous order of entry dropping by the wayside at the second declaration stage.

Those that are no longer in Melbourne Cup contention are Silent Achiever, Dandino, Kirramosa, Hawkspur, Sertorius and Zanbagh.

The reshaped Melbourne Cup order of entry has seen Brambles (previously 27th), Mr O’Ceirin (previously 28th), Opinion (previously 29th), Au Revoir (previously 31st), Lidari (previously 30th) and Araldo (previously 33rd) all move into the top 24 spots.

A total of 13 horses currently outside the top 24 places in the order of entry will chase a berth in the Melbourne Cup via the ballot exemption offered to the winner of Saturday’s Group II Lexus Stakes (2500m) at Flemington.

This year there is also the possibility that two horses running in the Lexus Stakes can book a place in the field.

If the Robert Hickmott-trained Amralah (currently 38th) runs and finishes second or third the performance will see him meet the first ballot clause of the race and with an allocated weight of 54.5kg it would move him equal 18th place in the order of entry if connections elect to run.

Amralah, along with Let’s Make A Deal (currently 33rd) are also nominated for the Group I MacKinnon Stakes (2000m) on Saturday. A placing in the Mackinnon Stakes would also ensure the first ballot clause is passed by Amralah.



The 2014 Melbourne Cup second acceptances are listed below.


#     Horse     Trainer     Hcp Rating

1     ADMIRE RAKTI (JPN)     Tomoyuki Umeda     114
2     AMRALAH (IRE)     Robert Hickmott     104
3     ARALDO (GB)     Michael Moroney     100
4     AU REVOIR (IRE)     Andre Fabre     103
5     BIG MEMORY (FR)     Tony McEvoy     100
6     BRAMBLES (NZ)     Peter G Moody     105
7     CARAVAN ROLLS ON (GB)     Danny O’Brien     100
8     CAVALRYMAN (GB)     Saeed Bin Suroor 111
9     FAWKNER     Robert Hickmott     115
10     GATEWOOD (GB)     John Gosden     107
11     GREEN MOON (IRE)     Robert Hickmott 111
12     GRIS CARO (GB)     Jake Stephens     101
13     JUNOOB (GB)     Chris Waller     108
14     LA AMISTAD     Michael, Wayne & John Hawkes     99
15     LET’S MAKE ADEAL     Nigel Blackiston     99
16     LIDARI (FR)     Peter G Moody     105
17     LIKE A CAROUSEL     Ken Keys     96
18     LORD VAN PERCY (GB)     Andrew Balding     100
19     LUCIA VALENTINA (NZ)     Kris Lees     108
20     MARKSMANSHIP (IRE)     Ciaron Maher     97
21     MR O’CEIRIN (NZ)     Ciaron Maher     103
22     MUTUAL REGARD (IRE)     Johnny Murtagh     107
23     MY AMBIVALENT (IRE)     Roger Varian     109
24     NOBLE PROTECTOR (GB)     Robert Smerdon     95
25     OPINION (IRE)     Chris Waller     104
26     PRECEDENCE (NZ)     Bart & James Cummings     104
27     PRINCE OF PENZANCE (NZ)     Darren Weir     100
28     PROTECTIONIST (GER)     Andreas Wohler     110
29     RED CADEAUX (GB)     Ed Dunlop     111
30     ROYAL DIAMOND (IRE)     Johnny Murtagh     108
31     SEA MOON (GB)     Robert Hickmott     105
32     SEISMOS (IRE)     Marco Botti     109
33     SHOREHAM     Saab Hasan     99
34     SIGNOFF (IRE)     Darren Weir     97
35     THE OFFER (IRE)     Gai Waterhouse     109
36     THUNDERBIRD ONE (NZ)     Francis Finnegan     89
37     UNCHAIN MY HEART     David Hayes & Tom Dabernig     99
38     WHO SHOT THEBARMAN (NZ)     Chris Waller     107
39     WILLING FOE (USA)     Saeed Bin Suroor     107
40     WISH COME TRUE (IRE)     Peter G Moody     97

Read more: http://www.races.com.au/melbourne-cup/melbourne-cup-field/#ixzz3HKYYXq9x
Races.com.au, home of the best horse racing bonus offers

green moon n/r.

If you've not seen it you can access the draw here:

http://www.racenet.com.au/melbourne-cup/barrier-draw.aspx

Mutual Regard for me...

Anyone know the horses balloted out?

Not sure if this is helpful as I don't understand the criteria of the ballot but it appears it was Mourinho and Chivalry... I stand to be corrected though...

Ignore last post, wrong race...

I'm playing Mutual Regard and Protectionist but it is a very difficult race to call.

AU REVOIR e/w for me,decent price.

First time Monsieur Fabre has had a runner in this race. If he had not been drawn on the outside, I would have fancied him strongly. Good luck, metro john.

Anyone think Gatewood has a squeak at 100/1?

I think I'll also have a stab at another 100/1 poke and I'll row in with Metro John's advice...that entirely down to the trainer.

Had a shilling to place Signoff.

ARALDO 25/1
Win & place
Big bet

cheers Clerkmore,you are correct the draw a nightmare,but half the odds with a good draw(too big to leave)

Yet another BIG G1 race for the best jockey in the world.
Has any GB jockey ever won this amount of G1s in 1 season world wide?
I would think not.
Well done Ryan Moore

Somewhat brassed off. The clear clock race was that run at Caulfield on October 11th when Signoff(2nd) beat Protectionist(4th). The weights were identical so backed Signoff to confirm the form. What happens Protectionist bolts up and Signoff finishes fourth. To add insult to injury a 22 runner handicap and Betfair only pay 3 places, what`s that all about?

Won on day,lost on AP,net profit overall. Atmosphere great, as was media coverage.
Otherwise, overcrowded, poor facilities, overpriced, poor viewing. Needs investment.MC a great race but support ing races poor. Not a patch on Arc day. Impressive winner but overbet The Offer.  Not paid for trip but ahead on day and that's good enough.

Willing Foe 5th has to make you think Cavalryman would very likely have been in the first 3. He would have loved the fast pace & been staying on strongly - very frustrating having backed him at big odds AP.