Derby 2015

Granted Figgis. My point is that it's more likely to be a lack of class that beats GH, not the trip. I hope to be able to muster a horse by horse preview at some stage, but my basic argument is that only 3 horses can improve past Golden Horn: Zawraq (could just be a better horse), Jack Hobbs, and G Canaletto (both COULD be better at 12f than GH, but I doubt it on the ).

available evidence).

so really howellsy you knew the answer to your original rhetorical question?

so just to back up your opinion that you think goldern horn will win? funny

A stupid statistic against Golden Horn in this 15 runner Derby
Only one favourite out of eighteen "15 runner Derbys" has won, Lemberg in 1905.

Runners__________Fav won  /    Derbys
4 runner Derby____0 favs won / 1 races
5 runner Derby____0 favs won / 0 races
6 runner Derby____1 favs won / 3 races
7 runner Derby____3 favs won / 5 races
8 runner Derby____0 favs won / 3 races
9 runner Derby____5 favs won / 8 races
10 runner Derby___2 favs won / 8 races
11 runner Derby___10 favs won / 17 races
12 runner Derby___7 favs won / 15 races
13 runner Derby___7 favs won / 19 races
14 runner Derby___4 favs won / 9 races
15 runner Derby___1 favs won / 18 races
16 runner Derby___3 favs won / 9 races
17 runner Derby___4 favs won / 15 races
18 runner Derby___4 favs won / 15 races
19 runner Derby___2 favs won / 8 races
20 runner Derby___0 favs won / 8 races
21 runner Derby___3 favs won / 7 races
22 runner Derby___7 favs won / 14 races
23 runner Derby___3 favs won / 15 races
24 runner Derby___1 favs won / 4 races
25 runner Derby___3 favs won / 9 races
26 runner Derby___4 favs won / 8 races
27 runner Derby___5 favs won / 10 races
28 runner Derby___1 favs won / 2 races
29 runner Derby___2 favs won / 3 races
30 runner Derby___1 favs won / 8 races
31 runner Derby___0 favs won / 2 races
32 runner Derby___0 favs won / 3 races
33 runner Derby___2 favs won / 3 races
34 runner Derby___0 favs won / 1 races

Harry, I am fairly well acquainted with the last decade or so of the Derby but was hoping someone like Kingscem, with a vast knowledge of the race's history, would be able to help. My initial post clearly implied that I fancied Golden Horn, but I certainly didn't know whether or not there was a reasonably close match over the last fifty years or so. Do you?

@Howellsy -- fwiw I'd say it is not uncommon for the Derby to be won by a colt whose optimum trip is probably 10f: Australia, for instance. It might have been John Gosden who said the certain stayers are often too slow, though probably the sentiment is far older.

The first 3 home in the Dante go on to run in the Derby. Also, the beaten 5/2 Fav and an unplaced Stoute horse  both unplaced in the Dante also go on to the Derby. The sh hd second in the 2000 Gns ,and the beaten Gns fav (the 4th home)both go on to Derby.Surely one of these will win the Derby?

No, the winner was a maiden winner, only run twice, never further than 8f, who hadn't run that year.Price 12/1.

The year was 1996. The horse? Shaamit.

Sometimes the unexpected happens. This year has the same feel to it.

looks like zawrak as gone

fwiw I'd say it is not uncommon for the Derby to be won by a colt whose optimum trip is probably 10f


Although its much more common imo that the winner is a 12f horse who has the speed to win at 10f

looks like zawrak as gone


The bulletin yesterday that it had an 80% chance was somewhat over optimistic and very misleading.

the perils of ante post betting.....

That's two markets this week where important scratchings have come just a few minutes before 10am.  Surely trainers can wait until the deadline rather than allow the antepost markets to be corrupted?  Naive of me, I know...

was just completing my last bit of form work (bar a change from expected good going) when zawrak got scratched.

saved me a bit of time....

Now I see that Gosden could take out JH if the ground gets too fast plus there must be doubts about others who would prefer a bit of cut such as EP,SD,HH,Epicuris. Could turn into a fiasco.

dont think gf would ever be an intention ....could surely only happen if rain was forecast up to race time and didnt arrive....enough fo a forecast to avoid watering in fear of soft ground.

@Sandown -- could be too fast but there could be a mudbath depending on whether Friday's forecast scattered thunderstorms and flash floods avoid Epsom.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2643743

Met Office Warnings Issued For Greater London
Yellow early warning of rain
From:0600 on Fri 5 June
To:2350 on Fri 5 June
Updated 3 June at 12:15

Scattered thunderstorms are likely to extend northwards across eastern and southeastern areas of England during Friday giving some localised intense downpours. The public should be aware of the risk of localised surface water flooding which may lead to disruption to transport and outdoor activities. Frequent lightning could prove to be an additional hazard.

The thunderstorms should clear away eastwards on Friday night.As is typical of this type of situation there is considerable uncertainty as regards the extent and timing of any thunderstorms, with some places within the warning area probably escaping the downpours. Therefore this warning will be kept under review and updated as necessary.

So you pays your money and takes your choice.

I am very disappointed that Zawraq and Best Of Times are not running.
My major bet is on Storm The Stars so I should be pleased but I am pi55ed off.
I obviously don't understand 80%.
And now John Gosden is talking himself into taking out Jack Hobbs.

Spent several days and several phone calls to friends getting £2k on Zawraq at 12/1, the perils of ante post betting.

Serves Zawraq's connections right for missing two Guineas with him to wait for this. Very bad luck for his backers though.

Here's a possible scenaro--Hans Holbien acting as pacemaker leads followed by Epicuris (normally a front runner when he consents to run)and Success Days.The doubtful stayers decide not to follow the blistering pace until it's too late leaving one of the front three as the winner(possibly Epicuris)

Howellsy, I agree that the stamina issue has been overstated regarding Golden Horn. Since his debut I've always thought he'd get 12f. From my standards I'd say the 1m75y at Nottingham takes some getting for a 2yo even that late in the season, particularly on good to soft going. Even though the early pace was slow that day the race provided enough of a test and he came home very well. The owners may have been saying he's more of a 10f horse but Gosden appeared to have no qualms about debuting him over that trip in those conditions.

As you say, the big question is will he be good enough? I agree with Sandown that the Dante time was decent but really no more than about average for the race, despite reading elsewhere that it was supposed to be a great time. I know that horses can show improved form on the big day but I don't subscribe to the theory that most do, I believe that in most cases it is due to their previous races not being run at a great pace. That can't be said about Golden Horn, the pace of the Dante was a true one and every horse had the chance to show what it can do. Maybe some might think he had more in the tank but that's not how I saw it.

In my view the Dante form is good enough for him to be thereabouts but wouldn't be good enough to win in an average year. Of course, this could be a below average year, however at current odds I won't be backing him in the hope that it is.

What a **** Derby we are going to get. High class handicapper could have won this

How much Rain has track seen and how much is expected ? what is ground just now ?

I do my own pedigree numbers.  The calculations are a bit odd so I'll just put some info here.
My calculation that influences me for this Derby is a distance calculation expressed in furlongs.
This furlongs calculation does not say that the horse will last the furlongs distance the calc says.
The calc is only used to get the spread of the field, from non-stayers (imo) to stayers.

My main win bet is Storm The Stars at 53.93, with smaller bets on Jack Hobbs 15.5, Kilimanjaro 27, Hand Holbein 17, and small losses on non-runners Ol' Man River, Best Of Times, Prince Gagarin.
Another bet is a place lay of Golden Horn, my €301 to win €318.  I also have another €100 up for a place lay of this horse but haven't yet got the price I want.
I also have a win double: Together Forever 8/1 (Oaks) with Storm The Stars 50/1 (Derby).

Derbys winners from 1960 to 2014 (55 races):
8.7f (3); 8.8f (3); 8.9f (2); 9.0f (2); 9.1f (3); 9.2f (3) ;9.3f (3); 9.4f (2); 9.5f (3); 9.6f (6); 9.7f (6); 9.8f (3); 9.9f (2); 10.1f (5); 10.2f (2); 10.3f (1); 10.4f (2); 10.6f (1); 10.7f (3)

Average and median of the 55 races both 9.6f.  Nijinsky, The Minstrel, Commander In Chief were rated lowest at 8.7f.  St Paddy, Authorized, Pour Moi were rated highest at 10.7f


Now the 2015 Derby

Golden Horn  (8.3)
Success Days  (8.6)
Carbon Dating  (9.0)
Elm Park  (9.1)
Moheet  (9.1)
Epicuris  (9.3)
Giovanni Canaletto  (9.3)
Storm The Stars  (9.3)
Jack Hobbs  (9.4)
Rogue Runner  (9.5)
Kilimanjaro  (9.7)
Hans Holbein  (10.5)

This is work in progress, and I make changes.
Every day I rewrite the programs as I learn more/results contradict my figures.
Last week the numbers were different as I did a re-write last night.  But the spread was similar.
Horses are not computers.  I may be totally wrong, so I am putting this out before the race.

agree with Figgis and what he is written about the Dante. It certainly wasn't a great time and Golden Horn is no superstar in the Sea The Stars / Australia / Galileo mode.

Hence willing to overlook the Dante 1-2-3 and look elsewhere with that trio taking a massive percentage of the book.

In an ordinary Derby at best, willing to take a punt on Kilimanjaro at 20/1. Could be improving fast, I thought he handled the Lingfield hill perfectly fine despite what written elsewhere and pretty much hands and heels to win, still a green horse to me. His timefigure compared well to what the rest of this field have shown so far.

Also assuming that Joseph would have the choice over Heffernan, so presumably this rates a better chance than Hans Holbein at least? Given that one is fifth in the market, got to be thinking Kilimanjaro way overpriced as a guaranteed stayer which the favourite definitely is not

Heffernan almost certainly on HH to act as pacemaker

GH may not have recorded a good time in Dante but beat the field with authority (Elm Park was supposed to be trained to win guineas without a prep race - after Dante said would come on for the run?). Gosden has always expressed doubts about JH's maturity/ability to act on track. O'Brien never been bullish about his. Connections said before guineas that Moheet wasn't ready, prob won't be good enough but you can say that about nearly every runner.

Did you see Jack Hobbs gallop at Epsom - MACHINE...........................

I did see it, slow ground half speed stuff (against a slow horse) unless their is a gd bit of ease in the ground i cant have him myself.

Just to clarify, I never said Golden Horn's Dante time performance wasn't good, but that it wasn't that of an outstanding winner. Whereas his price is one I'd normally associate with a potentially better than average Derby winner. This year the short price is more about the race seemingly having a below par look. I rate him already good enough to be fighting out the places in a typical year.

As I said, on the face of it this year's race looks below average in terms of depth and his form might be good enough to win it. However, down the years there have been many runners that performed better than most of us expected and went quite close to winning. Gun to my head I'd have to pick GH as having the most obvious chance of winning, but in betting it's all about the price and I don't see any value in him at the current price.

This rain wont do Golden Horn any favours either imo.
Think his price will be better 2moro morn, esp after this morns rain, now gd/g/s in places
Hopefully no more rain 2day or 2moro, Epsom does dry out well.

Current going is G,GF. There is barely a cloud in the sky and it's windy. By 4.30pm it's going to be GF.

Of this field the fastest horse I've clocked and most visually impressive was Jack Hobbs in the Sandown handicap. For me, he didn't quite run his race in the Dante, maybe the race came too soon after Sandown. At the price I'm willing to give him another chance and he's my only bet.

Concerned about the ground for Jack Hobbs. Hope I'm wrong.

the lovely gina bryce and emma ramsden have gone for jack hobbs figgis as there charity bet, was that in your thinking when coming up with your selection?

i'm with jack hobbs here but also praying for an elm park miracle, lots of pace guaranteed which should set it up for the closers, the track remains the problem for jack hobbs as he does tend to hang but hopefully he should get a perfect trip today unlike at york where he was caught out wide...

elm park has had more knockers on his door than a jehovah's witness working over time but i'm still hopeful he has just been trained for this day imo (is he good enough is another matter?) and although the other two horses are open to more improvement having raced a lot less than him, he hadn't had a prep run, if he did come forward like i think he will he has a chance at least, after all he ran a very poor figure as a 2 year old first time out and is a big horse... i still think he will race them, i just hope he stays, anyway no one can have him on there mind, so all we can do now is pray as we are still getting a juicy price to find out... find!!!!

Ground must be a concern for Elm Park too? I thought he travelled like a real good animal at York and got tired. Not inconceivable that he could take a big leap forward from that, but then again he'd have to as Jack Hobbs will have come on leaps and bounds too.

I can see it being good to firm all over by 4.30 which would be a major problem for both of them.

Can't remember a Derby where there were so many ifs and buts as this race especially regarding horses at the front end of the market.

For once I do not have a very firm opinion on the race. GH is the most likely winner but the evidence against it (pedigree) not staying is pretty strong.At the price I just can't back it even as a saver. The ground will be fast as I predicted and to my mind a lot of these will not improve for fast ground including EP,SD,JH,Epicuris,. There a few real no-hopers in CD,Moheet which leaves me with the AOB contingent. I'm going to go against Ryan Moores judgement and plump for HH each way at around 18.0. He stays 12f easily (bred for the St Leger) and importantly I judge him to be a horse with an action suited to fast ground despite his form on soft. He will probably attempt to make all so hopefully will keep out of trouble.

This is mainly a value bet for me, as I would put his chance in single digits.

GH looks like a non-stayer to me - going to go with outsiders STS and Kilimanjaro.

I have Giovanni Canaletto, Epicuris and Moheet on my side.

Personally I'd be extremely surprised if Jack Hobbs couldn't handle good to firm ground, we're talking Epsom with present day track care, it will hardly be like a road. I think because of the horse being immature and large in size Gosden is just concerned for the horse's long term well being after racing on firm ground, rather than his ability to act on it.

Question is, will they improve for fast ground? Just as with the 12f ,they probably won't win.

i think he will be fine figgis my main problem with him is his head carriage, he could be an awkward ride...we will see, there just isn't many options in this race...like sandown said lots of iffs and ands pots and pans

Another question is does he need to improve. Form ratings after the race will tell us the winner improved because they're compiled with an inbuilt mechanism to inflate them after such races, just like every handicap winner is supposed to have improved to win and every horse is supposed to improve with age at the same rate. By my reckoning, and I know everyone won't agree, his Sandown effort was a better time performance than at York, he would barely need to improve on that in a moderate year. To me he never looked quite right at York. Obviously I'm using limited data and I may be wrong, maybe he did run his race at York and GH is simply the better horse. Of course there may be another potential big improver lurking but if there is it's too difficult for me to find. I think the price on JH allows for such occurrences.

JH needs to improve just to beat GH (unless you believe that GH will regress for stepping up.)plus on my figures he hasn't put up anything near an average Derby winning run.

Ground now in Golden Horns favour & if he stays the 12f he will win this comfy imo.
Not my kind of price for a bet, but would not want to bet against him 2day, hope he wins.
Had a small place interest on here a while ago on Giovanni Canaletto 5.6, but he needs to take a big step forward from his prep run, 1st time CPs are interesting, they did the trick for his Brother Ruler of the World, if so, he could go well & grab a place.
Dont fancy the Dante 2nd & 3rd myself, ground & track would be a big concern for me with those 2.
Gd luck with your plays lads

do you not think jack hobbs will improve for the trip sandown?

112 Golden Horn
108 Jack Hobbs
108 Success Days
105 Elm Park
104 Giovanni Canaletto
103 Epicuris
103 Storm The Stars

Can't see Success Days or Epicuris featuring on this track on this ground; STorm The Stars could pick up a piece of it if others disappoint but makes no appeal as a winner to me.
Giovanni is the only one I could see improving significantly for the trip but it's only 13 days since he ran and clearly that trial was not as competitive as the Dante. However, not ruled out - the best pedigree for this by far.
I dismissed Elm Park rudely on another thread but watching the Dante again I did note that he travelled better than Hobbs for a very long way in the straight and looked speedier. I still can't see him winning and I don't think his 2yo form amounts to anything much, but I respect him a lot more after reviewing the Dante.
Jack Hobbs should stay, being by Halling who is clearly a strong influence for stamina, although the dam side isn't screaming 12f to me. He surely learnt a lot from the Dante, given a strangely mediocre ride, three wide in such a small field. Showed a great attitude in the straight and kept finding. Can see why people have doubts about him handling the track but will know a lot more now. What would Golden Horn have learnt from the race?
Nevertheless, Golden Horn did look impressive, although I can see the argument that he simply watched it all fall apart in front of him before picking up the pieces. However, for me he did settle and travel supremely well which is a huge advantage. Around Epsom all it takes is  bump early for that amenability to be threatened, but the smaller field reduces the chances of a rough race to an extent. I am quite confident he will stay. Cape Cross is a big influence for stamina and two of his top ten horses, Crystal Cappella and Corsica, had no particular business staying a trip on the dam side but did so in their 3yo careers. It's hardly certain on pedigree but it's not an 8-10f pedigree as some have suggested. 10-12 imo.
I think we'll see a replica of the Dante finish.

Think the ground issue is getting overestimated a bit for EP. He has won on GF before and the track today has a real nice cushion of grass. When connections expressed doubts about fast ground for Workforce, he drifted during the day when it was 25 degrees and blazing sunshine all day. Official going was the same as it is now. But he glided round the track because it's safe. From that point I kind of learnt fast ground at Epsom on Derby day is safer than most other tracks, like Newmarket. If the horse is good enough he'll make the frame. Keeping the faith with him! GL all.

Look for some soft ground horses, or some that have a slight preference for cut, and see how they perform during the other races today...

Sandown, as I said, I don't believe the York run was as good as his Sandown win and at the moment I'm still not convinced that Golden Horn's Dante win was quite as good as JH's Sandown win. Like I said there is limited data with such inexperienced runners, figures need to be fluid, but for now I have the Dante form 3lbs behind the Sandown race and to my eyes the Sandown performance looked like it could possibly be improved upon a touch more than the Dante winning performance.

On watching the Dante I assumed Gosden had a better animal in Golden Horn, but on analysing the time I wasn't as enthusiastic about it as others seem to have been. So I had to go back and check my ratings for the Sandown card with the view that I may have overrated the Gp3, however in my opinion the Gp3 was a solid event, well run and the first two have been out since and backed up the form. I use bare time ratings and for me the comparative time (if it can be trusted there was no change in conditions between both races) of Jack Hobbs puts him in with a Derby winning chance in an ordinary renewal, assuming that it is an ordinary renewal.

think the ground is also likely to help Hans Holbein if it does go g/f.....now he will stay.

wont place a bet till near the off but ....

good ...kilimanjairo ew
gf...hans holbein ew.

small ew on moheet

laying the fav

Going changed to GF.

Figgis, fwiw I had Australia running to 85 in last year's Derby, and J Hobbs running to 80 at Sandown, and as you say it was a card that locked together very nicely. I didn't find it easy to rate the Dante but in the end I felt it was feasible that Hobbs ran to his Sandown figure which would mean Elm Park 3 lbs below his 2yo best and Golden Horn running to 85, a 9 point improvement from Newmarket. That's how I've made sense of it. The Dante was 1.8 seconds quicker than the Middleton - surely every reason to give it a big figure?

Howellsy, yes I can see why that comparison could produce a big figure, but while I have it as a decent rating I don't have it as outstanding, of course I may have to revise that opinion after the race, hopefully not

Harry C

Do you not think jack hobbs will improve for the trip sandown?


His pedigree suggests he will and at York he looked to be running on. My greater concern is that he is a heavy topped horse almost certainly more suited to a flatter track like the Curragh or Ascot so I can see Gosden not running him tbh now the going has changed to gf. He has the fav so there is more chance of pulling him out than there would otherwise be. As I've said, the ground is against several horses today.

GI -Why do think the ground will suit Hans Holbein?

Fighting weight
Johyn Gosden said of his Investec Derby duo: "When we put Golden Horn and Jack Hobbs on the scales before they left for Epsom this morning both weighed the same as they did before the Dante."

But punters were not told their weights before the Dante and were not told their weights before the Derby and will not be told their weights before their next races.

Classy   Very Classy

Howellsy, you were spot on and the Dante form should've been taken at face value. Still a nice run by JH in second. Well done Golden Horn backers.

taht slowly run Dante worked none to bad ,must of been some poor orses in behind today ,maybe a hurdling prospect or two and a couple of winter a/w types

Fantastic for the game that win, great advert for racing imo.

The clock rarely lies.

Tremendous performance from the winner.

Hopefully will follow the Sea The Stars route of Eclipse, Juddmonte, Irish Champion and Arc.

Cheers Figgis. Ultimately a boost for form students after yesterday's debacle. I had my bet on Golden Horn when I saw him at 150-1 on here some time before the Dante. Sadly my confidence extended no further than a tenner. I'd have won much more on Jack Hobbs and Giovanni, and especially if Giovanni had beaten Storm the Stars for third as I had him or Elm Park for the tricast. It's the first time I've made a profit on the race in 15 years of trying though ....

That would be special uncle
Esp at York, would love to see him in action live

I think I managed to extract the maximum pain from that.
Storm The Stars win bets at 80s down to 30s.
Jock Hobbs win at 15.5.
Place Lays of Golden Horn for a fair bit.
Trifecta with Storm The Stars,  Jack Hobbs and a few others (not the winner).
I was sure the winner would not stay.

The pace set early was far too fast, set it up for the hold-up horses. Best horse won. Will reserve judgement for the moment on how good a race it was. JH will have great chance in Irish Derby if sent. TH had the 1.2.3 so well done them.Dante was the key but Elm Park was part of strong early pace & like HH didn't get home for same reason.

The pace set early was far too fast, set it up for the hold-up horses. Best horse won. Will reserve judgement for the moment on how good a race it was. JH will have great chance in Irish Derby if sent. TH had the 1.2.3 so well done them.Dante was the key but Elm Park was part of strong early pace & like HH didn't get home for same reason.

For the aftertimer, I don't recall anybody saying the Dante was slowly run.

Taking the Dante at face value and looking at today's times you'd have to think he's a good winner, certainly up to scratch, if probably not an exceptional winner.

He just does it so smoothly and clinically and I can see him mopping up Group 1's this season. Obviously soft ground in the Arc would be a problem, and the owner won't race him against Free Eagle so his campaign may revolve around just how good, and how sound, Free Eagle really is.

Ignore the Free Eagle bit-  getting my black, white and red silks mixed up.

Yep, nice win from the Horn. EP looks like a 10f horse based on that but obviously went off very fast AND was keen. I think they should try him without a noseband.

good winner and fair play for staying the trip.
not a good result for me.


phil re hans hoblien....
think looking at his debut he ran on well on gf over a mile ....for a "stayer" who had also won over further on very soft ground at chester that looks a odd ofr a horse who would prefer soft.

sure enough check its pedigree....shirley heights offspring have a higher percentage on gf which explains imo why he ran on well ona surface most would think he wouldnt be suited to.

think todays 3 furlong sprint for the lead will mask this.....thought he stayed on well considering.
be interesting to see his next placement.

I wonder if Coolmore are regretting not running Gleneagles as on breeding and dosage he was every bit as likely to get the trip as a very good winner in Golden Horn.

And his form was pretty rock solid, and the best going into the race, better than the winner's certainly.

Could Giovanni Canaleto be the Leger horse to take from the race?

Could well be but a lot of racing to come before September at Doncaster.

think hans is the ledger horse as long as they dont do a broadway flyer with it

I make Golden Horn a slightly above average winner of the race. Better than the likes of Pour Moi and Ruler of the World but I have him below such as Workforce and Authorized. I have his Derby 1lb above Australia's but he's probably about the same horse after readjusting his Dante win, possibly he stays 12f marginally better. With the over generous (in my view) allowance 3yos receive off their elders at this time of year it'll take an exceptional older horse to beat him and there doesn't look to be many of those around. The most important consideration is how he comes out of the race. Both Authorized and Workforce ran below par in their next race after winning the Derby in style. If they hadn't redeemed their reputations on their very next start they would've been historically dismissed as poor Derby winners that had been overrated, a bit like Camelot who in my view was unfairly done down after never recovering from his Derby and Irish Derby exertions. In GH's favour, to the eye the winning effort didn't look quite as taxing as some of those others but you can't always tell.

Howellsy, are you the chap that wrote the book? If so, excellent read.

I think so johnn. Thanks mate.

Workforce 2:31.33
Lammtarra 2:32:31
Golden Horn 2:32:32
Galileo 2:33.27
another eight under 2:34

The feature of the race for me was the crazy pace set first by EP then by HH. EP ran too freely whilst HH setting a fast pace was clearly part of the AOB plan to stretch the stamina of GH. Unfortunately, going off too fast at Epsom means using up energy up the hill and having nothing left in reserve. The field reached the path at the bottom of Tattenham Corner around 18 L (3.0 secs) faster than the Coronation Cup fieled ans 31L (5.27 secs) faster than the previous days Oaks field.

As Bradley Wiggins demonstrated if you want to cover a given distance in the fastest time/given time & most distance, then you have to travel at the most efficient pace which is an even one.

For me GH put up a fair performance and can be rated around 125/126 or thereabouts. He was ridden with restraint as was JH and they both benefited from being held onto.

The pedigree esperts had a bad day on the face of it. GH's breeder was very familiar with the family and apparently saw GH as a 10f horse. Steve Miller of dosage theory fame was adament that on dosage figures GH "would empty." Well GH didn't. The dosage theory has had a couple of blows dealt to it (Sea of Stars had a dosage index of 3.0) which make it somewhat unreliable imo.

HH was the horse most likely to stay according to Steve Miller. Perhaps we might yet see him in the Leger and if given a more sensible ride might yet prove to be the best stayer in the field. I wouldn't bet on it though

I agree about the fast pace. 12f is stretching the stamina of most 3yos at this stage of the season anyway and when a very fast pace is set and a better horse is given a more patient ride it can often appear more superior than it really is.

TF have made GH 131p, 13th top rated of all time and top-rated currently in Europe.. Seems a little too strong for me given the over-fast pace which has possibly distorted finishing positions.Looks like they have gone through Epicuris. Makes JH 126, STS 119, GC 116. TF ratings are now consistently higher than OR and RPR .

with a basic knowledge of pedigrees, the winner was related to see the stars (cape cross) and comparing those two horses, they both have mr prospector on the damsides. all of this were big positives for the horse, the fact the breeder didnt think it would stay, wouldnt be swayed by someone like that who although knowledgeable about matings ect. THROUGHBRED PEDIGREES SIMPLIFIED good read, only half read, ive got the gist of the book. good run for JH, basically a re run of the dante. bookies got off lightly with legatissimo getting beat the previous day.

Actually I think I may have initially overrated the race myself due to the exaggerated margins and my previous higher rating of Jack Hobbs. The other race figures, even though low in comparison, look too inflated which I'm not happy with on reflection. If I judge the race more in keeping with my Dante rating and accept that I'd overrated JH then everything else fits. Probably just an average winner after all and rightly or wrongly that's the view I'll be taking for future bets.

wd winners he is a good horse

agree with sandown in regards pace - i don't know what clock hefferman and atzeni have in there heads but it was a suicide job imo...for me the run came to soon for elm park as he was beaten after 7 furlongs, he just maybe isn't that good but he was beaten before the straight for me, he could be difficult to place but it is just possible after chasing the fast early fractions at york and putting in a big effort he didn't back up here

the race always looked like it would set up for the deep closing types and so it proved and they were strung out all over the downs, with the suicide pace collapsing at the 2 pole it was left to the two proven class horses in the race to pull clear and once again golden horns running style suiting how the race was set up for him. being able to sit out of the early burn up before unleashing that turn of foot and making jack hobbs look very one paced on the ground

golden horn is very likeable colt but not sure the race was just a poor one depth wise and he just picked up some average group horses, who imo were average before the race and because of how the race was run these lesser classier types made him look an exceptional horse, he is a good winner of the race because of how far clear he pulled and because of his hold up run style the race shouldn't be bottoming him, with the rest of the season in mind

i'm not sure how how jack hobbs will back up now but he is a good horse, it will interesting to see if they run him on that ground again but if he were mine he would be trained with the arc in mind and hope he would get some cut, also they would be able to back off him and he still looks very unfurnished, if he does turn up in the irish derby i wouldn't be keen if he is short price, as he just doesn't do anything quickly, he is a nice colt but the whole 3 year old division lacks any real depth class wise bar this winner who looks right up to scratch

storm the stars ran a good race considering how warm he got before the race - he was quite close to the pace throughout without trying to go with the suicide pace, it is just possible he just stayed better than the others but considering how warm he got, he ran well above what he should of done for his in form trainer, he will be difficult to place now if going for the big pots because like the others in the race he seems a little way below top class

The thing is if Golden Horn doesn't quite live up to some of the high ratings it won't necessarily conclude whether he was a very good Derby winner or not. There could still be the argument that the Derby took too much out of him. The same differences of opinion were around after the disappointments of Motivator and Camelot. Some will judge the race purely on what the beaten horses do after but being too strict on that can be a bit dubious in my view.

personally figgis i don't think the beaten horses will achieve much from this derby but i didn't think they were much good going into the race class wise...

My opinion harry, is that the beaten Derby horses rarely do even when we get a good winner, at least not in the immediate future, with only a few notable exceptions. That doesn't detract from the race though as for me, betting interests aside, it's about finding a potential 3yo middle distance champion, it's not really a championship event in itself and isn't meant to be.

agree sandown.
really stupid tactics by aob.

looking at what HH did he actually ran a blinder to not be last.

he is the other horse other than the winner to take huge credit from this.

would be a really interesting battle if they met again in a smaller field and aob tried proper racing tactics.

Personally dont think Han Holbein is of G1 class, not in the same league as the winner.
Prob wants slower ground as well. He did set very strong factions early, to fast, but thats what he was used for on the day, which says even more about him not being a G1 horse in AOB eyes.
Think the runner-up wants a bit more ease & a better track to run round.
3rd looks a soild 1m4f horse but short at this level, could well turn out a Leger type in time.
Giovanni C given time, a better galloping track, less fast ground gd/gs, could well reverse places with the 2nd & 3rd in Ire, if they meet up again. Think Elm Park wants softish ground & a flat galloping track & needs to settle, or he will achieve nothing.

Most welcome Howellsy, congratulations on improving your much maligned Epsom Derby record.

It was a great Derby, would hope Jack will go close too winning the Irish, the 3rd and (4th)  both capable of going close in the leger, the turn of foot was more than impressive, he quickened  up 6.4 notches from 3f out, I do think he is made for 12f and I would be more cautious than many beefing him up for 10f events, but yes the figures for 10f excellent and he may well make his mark. Zawrak would have been of more interest in those 10f events but he is out for the season , hope he makes a good recovery, perhaps for a wet Autumn?

dunno about great derby....time usually tells.

one negative is HH isnt a G1 horse and should have finished stone cold last running the way he did on unsuitable ground.

Further to the mention of Motivator, Timeform gave him a rating of 132+ after the Derby. Whatever anyone thinks of his Derby in hindsight it's fair to say Motivator never produced a performance anything like that rating afterwards. It will be interesting to see if GH does.

Bruce Millington said he would have GH 2/7 in a match with Newbay in the Eclipse. Despite visual impressions Derby's are always hard race so I would not be surprised at all if GH is beaten next time out, granted sufficient levels of oppo.