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Graham55
26 Jul 14 21:29
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Date Joined: 24 Feb 05
| Topic/replies: 35 | Blogger: Graham55's blog
Haven't seen a thread on this yet and not too far away now...

Race looks like it could be a low runner affair.

Two bookies have this priced up at present, the Sportsbook here and P@ddies.

Australia is the current 9/10 fav, should get his required good to firm and 10f seemingly ideal for this lad.

Looks his preferred target followed by the Irish Champion stakes.

Next in the betting at 5/1 Mukhadram, looks an each way bet to nothing. Great effort today, clearly better over 10f

After these two, seriously struggling, Trading Leather, Noble Mission, Remote, Grey Gatsby (interesting), Arod, True Story.

Thoughts?

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By:
sintonian
When: 27 Jul 14 09:05
Noble Mission would have a chance though he runs in Germany today.

If the going is Good to Soft or better then Australia will take all the beating.
By:
metro john
When: 27 Jul 14 09:28
Quite a deep race,very interested to see if Remote,turns up would need a run I would guess? also Eagle Top could make it a much sterner. test for Australia,who is no cert to.turn up?
By:
ReaseHeath
When: 27 Jul 14 09:38
Is Australia nailed on to run here though? I thought Coolmore talked about ROTW having a late summer campaign starting here with Australia more likely to reappear in Irish Champion.

I must say, I'm beginning to wonder if we'll see ROTW on a racecourse again.

Can't add much to the horses you've both covered - Remote is apparently going to reappear here after Gosden stating earlier that he did n't want to pitch him into a Group 1 fto this season - I think that's an interesting call given he also has Eagle Top in here, although that one was doing his best work at the end over 1m 4f yesterday.

Other random thoughts are:

I've no idea why Western Hymn is n't entered!

Night Of Thunder might be worth another chance over 10f - would n't conclusively right him off as a non stayer after one attempt though Mukhadram's excellent effort yesterday gives a lie to all those who thought th Eclipse result was false or some sort of fluke.

Bracelet or Tapestry could be interesting if either line up though they are just 2 of 15 APOB entries at this stage.

It all revolves around Australia, can't get involved until certain of the running plans.
By:
sintonian
When: 27 Jul 14 09:44
Is there nothing entered from France? What about Miss France? The Nassau Stakes could have a couple of spin-off runners here.
By:
sintonian
When: 27 Jul 14 09:45
Tapestry is definitely interesting but I think they are more likely to go for the Yorkshire Oaks than tackle the colts at the moment.
By:
ReaseHeath
When: 27 Jul 14 09:52
only entry from France I can see is Shamkiyr, second to TGG in Prix Du Jockey Club and then beaten comfortably by Western Hymn last w/e.

Makes me even more perplexed that WH not entered here, perhaps Remote is very special...
By:
metro john
When: 27 Jul 14 10:02
Remote the pick of the older horses on old form and potential for me sintonian,but they all need a run.
By:
sintonian
When: 27 Jul 14 10:12
Ah well, they can't all be top races. Just makes you appreciate the likes of the King George yesterday.
By:
metro john
When: 27 Jul 14 10:16
Agree,a marvelous that the owners decided to run the filly,The King george is run at the correct time of year,chance of recovery for the Arc or Breeders.
By:
Millerracing67
When: 27 Jul 14 15:42
Looking forward to my annual trip down to York for the 4days Cool
The Juddmonte G1 looks tailor made for Oz (if he runs) granted gd/fast ground.
Hopefully he turns up along with a few classy others to test him.
By:
metro john
When: 27 Jul 14 15:45
he will have a race this time!
By:
Millerracing67
When: 27 Jul 14 15:50
Lets hope so MJ. pity The Fugue has been retired to stud Plain, always thought this race on fast ground was tailor made for her & she loved the place (York)
By:
deadmurph5
When: 30 Jul 14 10:20
Good ground & Australia wins on the snaff, regardless of who turns up. That said I would like to see Toronado have another crack at 1m2f, though he isn't entered.
By:
Graham55
When: 31 Jul 14 17:30
Betfair exchange market now up for those interested...

Aidan O'Brien has said a decision is yet to be made re Aus but he's back in full work.

This seems the logical choice to me, seems more winnable than the Irish Champion where he may not get his ground.
By:
twonky
When: 31 Jul 14 18:54
Hopefully o Brien will see sense and run Magician back over 10f on a left handed course. Had nothing more than an exercise gallop at Ascot and wasn't knocked about.
By:
Graham55
When: 03 Aug 14 21:20
31st July:

Aidan O'Brien's dual Derby winner Australia is back in full work ahead of his end-of-season targets.
The Galileo colt has been given a break since winning the Irish Derby at the Curragh, supplementing his Epsom triumph and a fine third in the 2000 Guineas.
He is now due to drop back to 10 furlongs with the Juddmonte International at York on 20 August and the Qipco Irish Champion Stakes on 13 September identified as possible targets.
"He's back in full work and everything has gone according to plan." said O'Brien
"The boys (owners John Magnier, Michael Tabor, Derrick Smith and Teo Ah Khing) have their eyes on a couple of races - York and Leopardstown - and they will decide nearer the time whether they go to York and Leopardstown or just York or just Leopardstown."
By:
brigust1
When: 03 Aug 14 22:01
I have to say I am getting a bit twitchy about Australia at the moment. If AOB had not made his comment I'm not sure he would be thought of so highly. In the Guineas the winner and 4th have been stuffed and in the Derby the 2nd and 3rd have been stuffed. The Irish Derby wasn't up to much so what AOB's plans are may be difficult to guess. No mention of the Arc? That would be a given target for any top rated Derby winner. Odd.
By:
sintonian
When: 04 Aug 14 07:42
They need a new top class stallion, Brig. It's obvious. This is why AOB has been hyping because with his breeding they'll retire him at the end of the season. Montjeu died, St.Nicholas Abbey died who would have been the next big thing, then you have stallions like Dubawi, Shamardal and Sea The Stars all excelling this season with Classic winners.

Australia has won two 12f Group 1s, now he needs a couple of 10f ones to add to the CV.
By:
sintonian
When: 05 Aug 14 13:44
Unbeaten in four starts to date, the Sheikh Hamdan Al Maktoum-owned filly has been one of the stars of the 2014 Flat season with victories in the Investec Oaks at Epsom and against colts and her elders in the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Ascot last month.

Profiles Taghrooda Mukhadram
Taghrooda, trained in Newmarket by John Gosden, became the first filly from the Classic generation to win the Ascot summer showpiece since Pawneese in 1976.

The Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe remains her end of season target but connections are keen to take in the Darley Yorkshire Oaks en-route.

Richard Hills, assistant racing manager to Sheikh Hamdan, said: “Taghrooda has been great since Ascot and the plan is to head to the Yorkshire Oaks.”

“She has only had four career starts so it makes sense to keep her going and this race looks ideal.

“I was very impressed with her performance at Ascot. She has done everything we have asked of her.”

The Group One Darley Yorkshire Oaks offers record prize money of £330,000 making it the richest all aged fillies and mares contest in the country, outside of British Champions Day.

The richest race ever at York is the £800,000 Juddmonte International Stakes, the Group One feature of the opening day of the Ebor Festival on Wednesday and is set to feature Coral-Eclipse winner, Mukhadram.

A winner of the Sky Bet York Stakes in 2013, the colt was last seen putting in a strong performance to finish third behind Taghrooda in the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Ascot in July.

Hills said of the William Haggas-trained five-year-old: “His run at Ascot was fantastic. He justified his place in the field and we were delighted with him.”

“Whether he really stayed the mile and a half I don’t know, but he proved again what a brave horse he is.”

“He came out of Ascot well and the Juddmonte International is the plan. I think he goes there as the one they all have to beat.”

The Welcome To Yorkshire Ebor Festival takes place from Wednesday, August 20 – Saturday, August 23 inclusively.
By:
Graham55
When: 05 Aug 14 18:01
Thanks Sint - great to hear Taghrooda should be heading to the Yorkshire Oaks.

Can't help but think Mukhadram running in the Juddmonte will play into Australia's hands making it a decent honest gallop....?
By:
sintonian
When: 05 Aug 14 19:36
I would think AOB will have a pacemaker anyway, Mukhadram can just sit handily behind. He'll have a tough task conceding the weight to Aus though.
By:
cryoftruth
When: 05 Aug 14 21:15
Not sure I understand about the weight concession point Sint. Doesn't Oz just get the normal weight for age?

Australia might win, probably will, but if he does it's because he is the best horse.

Personally I think Mukhadram  is  seriously under rated. Many thought his win in the Eclipse was a fluke and they were proved wrong by his excellent effort in the King George. I think he may go quite close to beating Oz.
By:
brandyontherocks
When: 06 Aug 14 05:54
Depends if you think the WFA scale is fair Cryoftruth.

I personally think it is not.

It was drawn up (guessed) many years ago and has not been adjusted or looked at since.

Australia will receive 8lbs from his elders at York. It will take a mighty performance trying to give a very good classic winner an 8 length head start.

It needs to be readdressed otherwise what is the point of bringing your horse back as a 4 year old.
By:
A_T
When: 06 Aug 14 06:11
It has been adjusted slightly - Nijinsky was getting a stone from Blakeney in the King George.
By:
ThunderRoad
When: 06 Aug 14 06:59
If Australia runs here, he wins; whatever the going.

Horse is a good 'un.
By:
deadmurph5
When: 06 Aug 14 08:12
I'm going to York in 2 weeks & I plan on having every penny I have on Australia if I can get 4/5 or better.
By:
Figgis
When: 06 Aug 14 08:56
Personally I don't know why Varian is still messing around in handicaps with Farraaj, I'd pitch him straight in here. He's a much improved horse this year and I have his Epsom handicap win as the highest rating by any horse over 10f this year. I don't see anything to fear from the older horses, with only Australia to beat it has to be worth a shot. I'd strike while the horse is still at his peak, but the likelihood is that when he is finally stepped up in class he'll be a spent force.
By:
brigust1
When: 06 Aug 14 09:33
I think Varian has Kingston Hill as a possibility here. Getting placed is as valuable as winning the Great Voltigeur and he ran a decent race in the Eclipse winning the race of the 2nd group. I cannot see him beating Australia over this trip but it isn't inconceivable he will be placed.
By:
Figgis
When: 06 Aug 14 09:46
Kingston Hill could possibly place if it turns out to be weak form behind the winner but I still think it's poor placing if he's aimed here. The Guineas showed he doesn't have the pace to compete with the best over 1m and I don't see an extra 2f being enough to bridge the gap. Many people thought it was a poor decision before the race to run him in the Eclipse and whether he was given an ineffective ride or not he didn't show enough to warrant sticking to 10f with him. Farraaj is in the form of his life, at the age of 5 that level is going to be able to be sustained for too long. For me, the best trainers don't wait too long before stepping a horse up in class and making the most of a window of opportunity, the inferior ones wait too long.
By:
Figgis
When: 06 Aug 14 09:47
*isn't going to be able to be sustained
By:
brigust1
When: 06 Aug 14 10:19
Good luck with that one Figgis. Wink
By:
Figgis
When: 06 Aug 14 10:46
There have been many horses down the years that have taken what appeared to be a huge step up to Gp1 company, not so many recently, as I reckon trainers have become less willing to gamble. Selkirk went from a Listed win to a Gp1, Kissing Cousin went minor conditions race at Leicester to Gp1, Magical Romance went nursery to Gp1, plus many more. Most of these runners were considered to need to improve by orthodox methods of reading form but on the clock they had shown they were up to the task and became movers in the market. Of course, there were some not as successful but it still has to be worth the risk. There seems to be some belief that a horse has to take gradual steps up in grade or it will be outclassed. For me this is nonsense, winning a Gp3 by 5 lengths is a waste of a horse's reserves when the same level of performance could've bagged a Gp1. It might be wise to take such a steady approach with a young horse with time on its side but with an older horse opportunities should be grabbed while they can. In any case, Farraaj has already run in Gp2s and Gp3s in the past. Some will say he proved he wasn't good enough in those races but some of us believe that horses can, and often do, improve at the age of 5, and sometimes it's just for a short period.
By:
brigust1
When: 06 Aug 14 12:28
I accept that some horses improve at five Figgis. And I accept that some horses step up from handicaps and Group 3 and Group 2 to Group 1. But when the Gr3 and Gr2 races are only Group races in name then stepping up to a proper Group 1 is a step, or steps, too far. I have seen some really poor Group 1's where a proper Group 3 horse can win but is Farrajh even a proper Group 3 horse? I seriously doubt it. He won an AW Group 3 where the 2nd horse easily reversed the form next time and he is only really a handicapper.
By:
Figgis
When: 06 Aug 14 12:42
I just don't buy into this stuff one little bit that a horse's ceiling ability is nailed down at the age of 3 or 4. In any other sport it's accepted that a sportsman/woman can play at championship level for only one season sometimes. Some footballers, tennis players, etc, have performed to a high level of form for short periods. In those sports we don't have to hear people trying to explain this away by saying "they didn't really play that well, the others just underperformed, it was a poor year", etc. We have statistics that can prove the players were actually playing to a high level during those periods. Unfortunately in racing we don't have such benchmarks, we only have comparable times, which some people choose to dismiss as having any value. Which leaves the way open for the 'poor year' explanations.
By:
brigust1
When: 06 Aug 14 13:28
I did say I accept some horses improve at five but you have to accept that in some instances they are winning because the horses that beat them at three and four have exited the scene. That has to be part of the equation as well. So I'm definitely in the camp that the majority of 'older improver's', and I don't mean the horses that improve through taking the proper steps, are benefiting from the absence of others.
Is Slade Power an improver or has he benefited from the absence of the horses that beat him last season? Meaning is this a poorer year for the sprinters? 
Is Mukhadram an improver or is this a poorer year for the 10f/12f older horses?

When horses like Kingman beat the older horses that is a big step in the 'progress' stakes. If they then stay in training and continue in the trend then that is progress. When Kingman retires and Outstrip, for example, picks up the mantle and wins everything because Kingman is absent is the mile scene then better or not?
By:
Figgis
When: 06 Aug 14 13:41
It depends how you judge form. I like darts, in darts statistics can be used, as they can in some other games/sports. If a player wins a couple of finals easily then takes a dip in form and wins nothing else, plus the beaten finalists go on to win nothing, then using the same methods some people apply to horse racing the view would be taken that 'He beat nothing, poor year', etc. However, if the statistics say the player was averaging 109 and an 80% checkout in those matches it would be acknowledged that the player was playing to a very high level in those matches and would've been very hard to beat in any year. The latter method provides a pretty good gauge of what actually went on, whereas the former method is extremely crude in comparison, as well as reaching a completely wrong conclusion. This is why there is more crap talked in horse racing than most sports, imo.
By:
FELTFAIR
When: 06 Aug 14 13:44
At the end of the day you have to trust a trainer`s judgement where to place his horses unless the owner is insistent on a certain entry. I remember all the dogs barking around Newmarket about Cockney Rebel prior to the Guineas. Even old Geoff Huffer knew when he had something special.

On the other hand sometimes you have to tilt at windmills a la Clive Brittain but I don`t put Roger Varian in this category.

My own opinion is that Kingston Hill will not be campaigned to win a Group 1 over 10 furlongs.
By:
brigust1
When: 06 Aug 14 13:56
Comparing horses to dart players? I know from experience playing darts is a confidence thing. When I'm playing well things look good until I meet someone I know can beat me then he beats me. There are a huge number of external diversions with dart players unknown to punters. So I will stick to where all this crap is talked.
By:
Figgis
When: 06 Aug 14 14:09
When I'm playing well things look good

I doubt they ever look as good as a 109 average.

The point is about judging a performance on how good it actually was on the day, not on who did what after and reaching the conclusion that just because a horse couldn't repeat the same level of form time after time then the form must've been no good in the first place.
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