Horse Antepost
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15/8 Prince Gibraltar
11/4 The Grey Gatsby
8/1 Guardini
8/1 Teletext
10/1 Free Port Lux
12/1 Machucambo
14/1 bar
11/4 The Grey Gatsby
8/1 Guardini
8/1 Teletext
10/1 Free Port Lux
12/1 Machucambo
14/1 bar
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Replies: 19
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I've had a little bet on Prince Gibraltar at 2/1. He is not guaranteed to stay the trip but that can be said for some of his rivals and I thought he was quite unlucky in the French Derby.
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The French colts have been uninspiring so far but it's not unusual for them to produce a good later maturing colt towards the latter half of the season. Although quite visually impressive I don't rate TGG's PDJC win very highly and would rank it some way behind Intello's win last year. I also just don't see him as a colt that's going to be as effective at 12f, particularly if the French going description is anywhere close, although that remains to be seen. If he were to get any closer to that 11/4 on here I'd be laying him. It would be no surprise to see Prince Gibraltar turn the tables over this longer trip but I won't be backing him as there could easily be an improver lurking capable of showing something better than we've seen so far, actually it will be disappointing if there isn't.
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Small bet on Golden Guepard for me @ 10/1.
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had a small bet @20s for the Arc,
thought he was a bit unlucky in the French Derby.Ran on well at the end. |
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This is an important stepping stone to the Arc as well as being a valuable race in its own right. I expect Prince Gibraltar to show himself to be a good horse at the trip and on the ground, with Guardini being an EW shot. I consider TGG to be a top of the ground horse so if the going is as it says i.e soft, then I wouldn't expect him to figure this time.
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Not going to get to see the race as i'll be at a bbq. Would appreciate some views after the race regarding his run in view of a possible tilt at the Arc.
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Looking at the time of the handicap I think it can't be any softer than good to soft, certainly not what we'd call 'very soft'.
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In the earlier race Brown Panther looks a bit of value, he goes well with cut and on current form looks a bit better than this opposition. He ran disappointingly when travelling to Longchamp a couple of years ago but he'd had a busy time beforehand, whereas this year he won his first 2 races while running within himself, for me, and just didn't stay in the Gold Cup. The concern would be something being given a tactically better ride in the inevitably slowly run race we're going to get over there but Kingscote usually keeps it simple with this horse.
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I think BP will take a lot of beating so I have saved on him while backing Siesmos. I think this horse has a nice race in him.
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That is twice Seismos has taken the wrong course. He sticks to the rails while the main protagonists race up the middle. Did the same last time.
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The winner did it well enough, BP looked a bit flat towards the finish, maybe the Gold Cup effort took something out of him. The ground does seem to have gone even softer, as was said on tv, so it will be even more surprising if The Grey Gatsby can win.
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Just back Fabre's blind is the answer I guess
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Never see the race but the result says PG lost by a short neck, with RP in-running comments saying he held up, restrained, whilst the winner made all. 2 1/2 lengths back to 3rd. A little unlucky?
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He raced mid pack but with daylight the whole way. Wasn't any hard luck stories this time.
It was a sprint for home off the turn with 2f to go. He was a couple of lengths behind the winner and slowly ate into the lead. It looked very soft going and I thought he ran very well in the conditions. Still a lovely outsider for the Arc IMO. |
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https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=xSmJ8X1ew0Q
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Lively *****
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They look some way behind the best British and Irish 3yos to me. I would've thought yesterday was a far better option for Kingston Hill than the Eclipse.
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I agree the better 3 year olds have looked to be British/Irish so far.
But Australia's main target will be to support the new Irish Champions weekend. Will he get his favoured sound surface at Paris in October? Kingston Hill needs to get a victory under his belt and prove he is up to the task. Eagle Top is of interest but needs to step up from his Ascot win. Not sure of any others you would consider Arc contenders. |
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Having seen the race now I think it's clear PG was the best horse in the race. Gallante broke well and was nicely perched on the rail for the whole of the race. Almost immediately from the start. Compare that with PG who was pulled back towards the rear and at one stage was racing 6 lengths behind him. Soumillon challenged wide off the bend and would have certainly covered more ground than the winner so the fact he only went down by a short neck when the going was testing is a credit to the horses ability. I would not be surprised if the trainer feels a bit ticked off with the last two rides his horse has got.
Anyway, he looks a progressive, smart horse to me still and 20/1 for the Arc still looks very reasonable, even more so if the going comes up soft has his form figs on it are 112 now but he can handle better ground too given his unlucky French Derby run. At the current prices i'd much rather be with him than those at the head of the market as they have as many questions as he does. |