St Leger Doncaster 13th Sept

Windshears price has come in a little bit. Now some money for KH and still people wanting to back Godolphins horse.

Think Eagle Top would be the class act if going for it sint.
Would stay the trip & has the best form imo, shame the owner does not want to aim him at it , take all the beat in my book.
Big Jonny G loves winning this Classic, so maybe he will change her mind.

big johnny g said Eagle top was being aimed for the st leger before it's latest race, the owner said she wants to try other races now, I say, better having a great chance in the leger than a fair chance against the very best,cheers.

when did JG say that, bairn? Last I read/heard is that both owner and trainer were against running in the St.Leger. That is certainly what JG said after his King Edward win anyway. But since then they have given him the entries.

I think the owner will get her way and so she should, imo. horse has a lot of potential and is still learning the game, never raced at 2, he looks one to get better with age to me. 1 more race then put him away for next year.

what race though?

Aiden O'Brien's record is rather good here of course, and it's still very much unclear who he'll send.

I thought Kingfisher ran very well to stay on in the Irish Derby, Orchestra a reasonable yardstick to beat. He's won on soft, ran well on Gd/Fm, and the 1m 6f looks very much in reach. Whether he sends him over or not is the question??

sint. he definitely said Eagle Top would be going for the St Leger in an interview on tv , I think it was after Sultanina won at Goodwood and he was talking to Lydia but it could have been Nick Luck, he was talking about a lot of his good horses and where they would probably go. this was obviously before Eagle ran such a good race in the King George so plans maybe different now. cheers.

But Sultanina's win at Goodwood was after the King George?

Think u have heard that wrong bairn.
If he was a confirmed runner, he would be fav imo.

no, no, let me explain, he definitely said he was prepairing Eagle for the St Leger, this was before the King George, I can't remember when it was but obviously things have changed, he is entered in the voltigeur which is usually seen as a Leger trial, so maybe at one time that was the intended route, it's all up in the air now. I see Romsdal was bet with nearly all the bookies yesterday. cheers.

I think if JG had said that he would not be trading at 12/1 on here. With Romsdal he said he had planned to use the King George as his Leger prep prior to the race as his frame could not take much racing. So, if he is prepared to go straight there with Romsdal, then he might do it with ET (if they decide to go). The owners other horse, Forever Now, who finished 3rd in the Bharain Trophy behind Hartnell and Windshear is going to France next over 1m5f and the racing manager has said he won't be going to the Leger so it's interesting!

guys, my mistake, I just found the tape of the King George, Emma Ramsden was interviewing big johnny g pre race,  as I was going to the football that afternoon [Raith v Forfar] I set the recorder, when I watched it back he was talking about Eagle saying he had supplemented it, just like Nathaniel, and he went on to say Romsdal was being prepared for the Leger and this would be his trial, then freshened up for the Leger. my sincere apologies for the confusion. I bet Eagle at 6's immediately after, so this misunderstanding will probably cost me. cheers.

No worries Bairn.

Elite Army ruled out by SBS.

Had a small bet on Marzocco @ 36 in the hope he runs well in the Great Voltigeur.

With you there Unc.

Never see the Great Voltigeur but it's no surprise Hartnell ran disappointingly as he looks like he needs 14F+ or at least some cut in the ground.

Windshear now a top priced 10/1.

Nick Mordin has suggested one horse should be odds-on but I don't know which one he's referring to. Maybe Romsdal.

Not a great deal of movement in this market although there still seems to be a lot of deadwood. I assume the supplementary stage will clear it out, if he runs which will obviously be ground dependent I could see KH going off much shorter than the current 3/1 considering his price for the great Voltigeur prior to his withdrawl. It looks a weak race outside the top few in the betting.

GV was over 12f though so on form he had to be 6/4. But agree he will go off shorter than 3/1.

yeah agree, the market to me doesn't make much sense. I can count at least 5/6 horses which I don't think will run and they are making up about 10-15% of the book. Snow Sky and KH are being inflated by this. I've taken the 3/1 NRNB with b365

I thought that Snow Sky ran a great trial at York. He was given a very tender ride in the last furlong when the winner had flown and was too far back earlier to get competitive. I expect him to start favourite unless the going is on the soft side.a

Backed Snow Sky 8/1 e/w nr no bet,looks rock solid with doubts over Fav running and not staying?

Next weekend. Hopefully Windshear can do far better than Census.

14mm overnight rain at Donny?

Would take that 14mm with a pinch of salt (and the ground description)

No rain forecast at all next week

Think  the Hartnel run in the Voligeur may be a little  misleading , his trainer  usually  has his quality  Horses roaring in the summer months so it was a surprise to me that  Hartnel  did not put up a better show in the Voltigeur   . He  looks the type for the SL  his defeat of Windsheer  at Newmarket  was very clear cut in a valuable Race . Some people say the trainer runs his horses into the ground  but this is not true when it comes to his classier Types .  KH  is becoming the most frustrating  horse to follow  and may well be pulled out again  given the  current weather.

Kingston Hill has had an awful prep for this race imo. Never looked a stayer to me either, more just a 12f horse or maybe 10f if there is soft ground.

Kinston Hill the weakest favourite I think I've ever seen. Not going to bother finding the winner just going to lay the Varian runner who has disappointed since his awesome 2yo campaign as I really cannot see him being even placed (stamina????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????...

Kingston Hill has run more like a stayer than anything else to my eyes. Maybe that's why I prefer the jumps.

This looks quite a poor St Leger to me with nothing really outstanding.

Of those at the head of the market I suppose Romsdal must have a chance just becasue he has always been Gosden's St Leger horse. He did disappoint at Ascot though. If you forgave him that one run and his Epsom 3rd looks okay. he looks like a stayer too.

Snow Sky looks solid too and also looks like he'll stay. As someone else noted his run at York was decent as the winner there looks interesting maybe in the Arc this year!

The apparent zero rainfall looks an issue for the favourite sadly for connections.

My personal choices are Odeon ; he is a total nutter imo who has never yet shown his best form as he goes crazy before the start and then puuld his head off in the early stages. If (a very big if agreed) he chose to behave, he could be a massive improver on what he has done so far. A tiny bet at 100 is all that is required on this dodgepot. He is pretty good I reckon if only he allowed himself the chance to show it.

The other one at a big price is Kingfisher. He was identified as Ballydoyles Ledger horse ages ago. He has had a "Duke Of Marmalade" preparation for his own group 1 race -  ie being used as a pacemaker by Aiden O'Brien so you can forget about a few of his runs.

Whilst its irritating that Coolmore have so many middle distance Galileo's in their stable that they can afford to use a good horse as a simple pacemaker, it does have a silver lining. If Kingfisher had been trained conventionally and everyone could see how good he really is, he would be a deal shorter in the betting.

Kingfisher a v unlikely runner here

yep, Kingfisher is likely to be used as Australia's pacemaker at Leopardstown.

@Joci club, I felt exactly the same after his run in the Eclipse, derby run at a good clip and he was sticking on all the way to the line. Felt in the Eclipse he was given a fairly poor ride over an inadequate trip and again ran on after the race was lost. Expect them to go a slightly slower pace than the derby which should suit him fine from a stamina perspective.

Kingston Hill is the logical fav if it runs but with fast going seeming very likely, I am still a big fan of Snow Sky who has been handled with kid gloves so far.

KH taken out of the Niel so runs here no matter wat the ground by the looks of it

Having has another good look I would certainly not put anyone off Snow Sky. However I quite fancy Winsheer to reverse Goodwood form. There was only a neck in it Goodwood and I am sure that course would have suited Snow Sky better (he liked Lingfield).

Winsheer seems to me to be the most likely to not just get the etxra 2.5 fls. okay but to improve most for it as his breeding screams stamina. He looks like a possible future Cup horse so has a chance of improving significantly over the trip.

Snow Sky looks tailor made for the long Doncaster straight to me and for the first time in his life, he is likely to be asked to give his maximum effort.

wondered into a bookies today to eat my lunch ,the sponsers of the st leger ,they were offering 7/1  as a special snow sky  ,and if you back a winner over 4/1 with them at donny this week you get a free bet matching your steak up to 25 .
backed snow sky @ 7/1 e/w with them .

1/4 the odds as well .

Kingston Hill for me.  There is a lot of chaff in the race.

just wondering at what time RV states that KH wont run because of the ever drying ground ? Will he even bother declaring him ??

JWH nope he won't. Looking out across the racecourse bit of mist but looks to be a fine day. Good card and I'm off down there for a snifter or two.

Best horse in the race Kingston Hill... but suprised he will turn up for this ... ground will be a lot faster than antcipated and I dont think will bring out the best in the horse.

People taking 5/2 or 11/4 antepost should have their heads checked ...will be 4s morning of the race...

I like Windshear and Snow Sky - those are my ideas of the winner

Although will be ironic if Scotland wins that will be a topical winner!

14 decleared, only Kingfisher is withdrawn. Final antepost line up is:
Alex my boy, OR 105
Forever Now, OR 106
GrandDukeofTuscany, OR 105
Hartnell, OR 110
Kings Fete, 0R 104
Kingston Hill, OR 120
Marzoco, OR 107
Min Alemarat, OR 95
Odeon, OR 103
Romsdal, OR 115
Scotland, OR 109
Snow Sky, OR 111
Somewhat, OR 109
Windshear OR 110

Are you not worried about Snow Sky messing around in the pre-lims like he did at Goodwood. I know that did not stop him winning but over an extra 2.5f it would.

Stall 3 for Windshear looks ok. KH is in 4 and Hartnell, who will presumably run from the front, is in stall 6. Windshear can sit in the first 4 or 5 and be relatively prominent.

With any luck, he'll be in a good position to strike off the home bend.

On times the ground seems reasonably quick.

Day of race market now up.

Racing Post ‏@RacingPost  3m
Varian warns St Leger favourite Kingston Hill unlikely runner unless course is watered.


Disgraceful if they water. No need.

Form of the Bahrain Trophy is working out nicely.

Think most people would agree KH's career best was his 2nd in the Derby, on ground that had to be good to firm judging by the clock. The horse was then pulled out of the Irish Derby on slower ground over what would appear his most suitable trip only to be dropped in trip for the Eclipse on ground that was as fast as at Epsom on Derby day. I see no reason why this horse is supposed not to handle good to firm ground and his 3yo record could've been a bit better with better placement by connections. I hope the clerk waters only if he sees it necessary and not because of Varian's tiresome ultimatums.

Would be disgraceful if they watered for one horse...

and pressure from connections...

they should have considered the risks when they declared him on Thursday...

Don't think Varian should be trying to get them to water by making a statement like that. Would be totally unfair on Stoute's two runners who need it on faster side. There will be perfect ground just on the quicker side of good if they don't mess around with it.

Well the Clerks made a rod for his own back over this given he said there was "Ease in the Ground" and can hardly water when he's given descriptions of g/s on a stick reading of 7.6 when he gave 7.0 today

This years fixture in June was on a 9.8 reading according to turftrax going stick archive

Clerk of the Course has said "we have never watered for this fixture and wont now!"

Unless weather changes KH will be out

Well said the clerk.

They have both backed themselves into a corner really. CoC can't water due to his previous comments, and he seems adamant he wont anyway. And Varian has basically said KH won't run unless they do so will look a plonker if he lets him takes his chance. Scenes.

yep, the clerk's comments seem about right.

As pointed out above, the evidence that he needs a lot of give underfoot is flimsy to say the least - he ran his best race in the Derby and ran perfectly adequately in the Eclipse over a trip which is probably less than optimum.

I wonder if the owner might intervene - particularly as his father's Coolmore representation appears underwhelming.Even if they don't water, he is not being asked to race on anything other than normal summer flat racing ground - they need to get on with it, they have plenty to gain and little to lose as the ground will be plenty safe enough.

I still think he'll run but I suppose we'll have Varian walking the track before racing and then waiting for jockey reports from the earlier races, before making a decision either way...not ideal for the racing public.

After learning of Varian's words, Duncan said: "Jamie Spencer has walked the straight and he still says that it is no firmer than good.

"We do not intend to water tonight and the forecast is for it to be cloudier and cooler tomorrow.

TONIGHT being the operative word. We need somebody on course watch. Water and market changes proportionally and I would like a slice of the action.

The horse has nowhere else to go, and we know what the derby ground was when kingston hill came second. These ground games are a nonsense. Varian comes across as a bit of a wanka.

Bit harsh Graeme. Think he is just feeling the pressure and desperately needs/wants to run in the race.

If the next 2day forecast is right (weather) the fav will prob be taken out.
Its going to be near g/f for Sat, but to get the fav to stand its ground they will prob water 2moro night.

Trainers should not dictate the ground as the meeting is underway... its unfair to opposition... Varian should man up and either run his horse or not... not apply pressure... is as simple as that...

Ain't harsh at all sintonian. The day the ground gets changed for a 11/4 fav is the day we should all chuck it in. Too many trainers get wankarish over the going, which shows disregard for the trainers who may prefer different ground, but just get on with it.

I must have been mad, I just bet a horse tonight in the [day of the race market] then realised, if Kingston Hill doesn't run there will be a 22% reduction factor plus commission, my 20/1 shot would be about 10/1 if it won. cheers.

what about coincidence betting, when Dunfermline won the Leger, it was the Queens Jubilee, when Party Politics won the National there was a general election,  I wonder with all the fuss about a referendum if Scotland will win the Leger, NO THANKS, too much of an improbable. cheers.

Varian is pathetic - end of.

Is the COC wavering However, on Friday morning Duncan repeated that his current plans did not involve watering, although he left the door open to a rethink later in the day.
"We currently have no plans to water but it's not being ruled out," Duncan said.

1.01 he does.

Fancy Snow Sky even more now, with saver on Windshear don't think will be 8/1 tomorrow.

And Bollox to Varian he as bad as Henderson!

I am a backer of the horse but agree the trainer has done himself no favours when you look at the clock of the Epsom run and the ground conditions that day that was his best performance by a mile. If it is to be the third time the horse is pulled out it must be some kind of record.

I cannot have Windshear to win, just based on the stables lack of classy middle distance + horses. Not decided if or where my money will go but Romsdal, Kings Fete and Forever Now look overpriced

Kingston Hill definitely runs - Varian

if you,d have interviewed varian after the racing post trophy and said your horse is a slow ground plodder he,d have got all indignant and start giving it,no he,s gone just as well at home on good ground and it might suit him better,not many class horses like it heavy blah,blah,

Kingston Hill for me 2day.
Hopefully the home str ground is not 2 quick for him.
Think he will stay the trip fine & is the class horse of the race.
Couple of plays on him with Fred & Stan (£50 max each) this morn 9/2 & 4/1.
Gd luck with your bets lads

I agree with kinscem, a lot of chaff in the race. One good thing about Varian's ground statements is they've given the impression the horse needs some cut and have helped to make him a decent price. I don't know for sure if he'll be as good over the longer trip. Actually I've never seen any pedigree research that gives more than a ball park area estimate, maybe some people's work can improve on that but they're keeping it to themselves. As a 2yo Kingston Hill always looked very much a stayer and has continued to do so as a 3yo, not the most intricate stamina analysis but it's good enough for me. In my view, if he runs his race the rest need to improve to beat him. He's only had 3 runs this year and has been rested since early June, which I see as beneficial to his chances. On the other hand, with no recent form to judge him on it has to be taken on trust that he's still the horse he was earlier. All things considered I think around the 7/2 mark is a very fair price he runs his race and the others don't improve past him.

*kincsem

I've gone for Alex My Boy @18 no worries over the trip, jockey makes few mistakes

Surely Odeon's going to behave himself one day - maybe today?

this race really does lack depth class wise...

kingston hill like others are saying really is a big price today, my main concern with him is his ability to stay this far but he has always looked a stayer really in his run style but i do have major reservations myself about him getting home...mastercraftsman first bunch of three year olds haven't produced much stayers so far and it is still to be proved how his progeny will get on over staying trips but i have major reservations in this regard for the horse, however you are certainly getting the right price to find out and he is the best on ratings but his lack of a prep and stamina reservations, add to what i think about the derby, mean i have to pass him over as much as I feel I should be backing him

some of the prices on some of the horses here really are astounding imo - kings fete at 10-1 is a shocker on a achievement on the track and i'd want double that to find out about him, he has also been keen in the past...i have the same feelings in regards the price about windshear who if we take that strict line of form from goodwood at face value on a line through the progressive snow sky, we could give him a chance but really snow sky was very coltish at goodwood and his class still saw him through, i fully expect him to confirm form with windshear who looks progressive himself but at a level imo that leaves him plenty to find to win a race of this standard...i must be missing something with scotland at 22-1, he must of suddenly inherited some ability from somewhere because he certainly hasn't shown much on the track

forever now is likeable as is alex my boy both are progressing well as much as like both surely they have to much to find

i have a few stamina reservations about snow sky but imo he is the best colt in this, so am backing him and the horse who has been completely overlooked at the odds is hartnell who looked to run up the back of horses in the voltigeur and loose his stride pattern...i can forgive him that and he wasn't knocked about - before that he was most progressive...he does however come with a slight warning in regards the trainer, who may of already cooked him for the season but we are getting the right price at around 20-1 and if he can return to his early season form he has to have a decent chance...kingston hill has to be respected and all the others are fair at just a muddling level...tricky race so good luck if your having a decent bet, but imo it doesn't warrant it...senockian star on the other hand does

Somewhat looks overpriced to me, Sire has already produced a Leger winner and might get a nice tow from Odeon today as opposed to having to make it... so him ew at 40/1 (4 places).

...and a win bet on Kingston Hill, ground no issue, runs like he'll stay, Mastercraftsman only second season sire I believe so his Stamina Index probably a bit misleading at this stage...

Tricky race though, hard to rule many of them out completely ... good luck!

Kingston Hill i sover-priced at 4.5 or so. he is a G1 winner, gave Australia something to think about in the Derby on ground that wasn't soft, and is well in on form & time figs. The trip is an unknown but he looked as though he would stay at Epsom. He is lightly raced this year and his poorish runs were over distances too short for him. Why he ran in the Eclipse i don't understand. A question. Could any of today's opposition have run Australia so close? Doubt it very much.

In fact. I think he is good value at 40/1 to run in the Arc, a race where conditions should suit.

Just a few lengths behind at Epsom, I'll save on Romsdal.

he is a top jockey - another lovely ride from the lad...vwd chaps

Joined:
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| Topic/replies: 21,863 | Blogger: JOCI Club's blog
Kingston Hill has run more like a stayer than anything else to my eyes. Maybe that's why I prefer the jumps.

Maybe I'm not such a bad judge after all!

Oh Kingston hill you beauty, a real good horse who has been given a terrible campaign but came good in the end. KH goes on any ground regardless of what the RV says, hope they keep him in training.

very nice Sandown btw did you have a forecast?

I don't think the Arc will play to his strengths, and think he will get tapped for toe coming round the final bend in the Arc. Today's trip was just what he needed to grind up through the gears.

Very gd performance from K H 2day
Thought for a few moments he had given him a bit to do, but he got it right & he came home strong to land the final Classic of the season
Not an Arc horse tho & unless the ground is soft he would be winning a G1 over 1m4f imo.

"not be winning" i should say.

not seen the race yet but I wonder if Varian will look to appoint a new stable jockey or continue to try to use Atzeni as much as he can?

nice double for the Mastercraftsman progeny

Moore is just diff class imo

Assume both Sintonian and Judorick traded their positions. You know it makes sense.

why aftertime like that Felt?

I backed Windshear ante-post at 20/1, I'm not a trader/layer.

Missed the race so not sure if luck played a part in Windshear missing a place by a neck.

wd KH backers.

Had a dream unimpeded run along the rail all the way but couldn`t cope with the speedier types at the business end. Probably his best ever performance.

cheers Felt. Gutted he did not hang on for a place!

Guineas has produced all three classic winners this year. Obviously the first is a given but suggests it is a fairly strong year. Plus the French derby. Most of the all aged G1s have been picked up by the three year olds minus the Eclipse which didn't have an obvious candidate.