Prince of Wales´s Stakes

i tend to agree with you in regards her price figgis but just have a doubt in my head that she is a better filly over 1m4f...do you have the same reservations?? or do you think her leopardstown win was convincing enough against a horse (al kazeem) who for me was over the top in that race...don't get me wrong i quite like her here just have this one nagging doubt

Harry, I rated her highly at York, I thought maybe I'd gone a bit too high but there was enough leeway to still fancy her at Leopardstown. I could be wrong but I think Al Kazeem was back to his best in Ireland after being below par at York. Either way I believe she's as good at both trips. I anticipated her running below par after Ireland and while she still went close on her next two starts I don't think she was at her best. We tend to remember the horses who keep running top performance after top performance but for me most horses get bottomed after a couple of really big efforts. The big doubt is current form but at the price I'm willing to take that on trust.

ye don't disagree you are getting the right price...i tend to disagree a tad about leopardstown because al kazeem had been trained hard early season and after another hard race at sandown looked like he was finished at york and backed that up for me at leopardstown, plus the proximity of a poor irish derby winner also held the form down for me a tad...i think the fugue has proved herself at 10f but believe her to be a better filly at 12f and think she may just been done for a turn of foot here...

i agree she was wasn't as good after ireland and that came plenty soon enough anyway after york for me, which is why i'm a tad sceptical about the irish champion stakes...as much as i think she will get done for a turn of foot i am with you in regards her getting in the 3 but will just have a bit on her saver in the place market

i'm not keen on magician, he has been disappointing albeit on ground he doesn't like but disappointing all the same...his form ties in with the fugue but personally thought the the fugue was unlucky at santa anita...for me that race stunk and just very average group1 form going into the race, as had point of entry as a certainty and he is just an average group 1 horse in his own right but hadn't prepped and that did for him on the day

i am quite keen on mukhadram ew here and am backing him... i think he will get loose on the easy lead here and as much as he has his limitations class wise, he hasn't got a lot to find with some of these and if he can back up last years running i don't see why he cannot dictate the fractions and kick off the front round the home turn...can he beat the good filly? i'm not so sure however and the fugue is certainly a respectable filly in her own right like you say, so it isn't going to be easy to beat the odds on shot giving weight but i think he will get in the money

This is a difficult race for me. I think Al Kazeem, The Fugue and Magician are about the same horse and they would all be about 10 lengths short of winning an Arc. On the other hand I wasn't enamoured with the Arc but mainly because I thought it wasn't truly run. So 10f here negates that point.
So it has to be Treve. The fact I have had a good bet on Australia for the Arc at nice odds gives me some leeway so I will have a bet at the odds on. If she gets beaten my Oz bet looks better and if, when she wins I recoup my Oz investment.

10 lengths?

interesting logic brigust...

this same horse thing is a tad concerning for me considering in this case you are using 3 totally different types but anyway it is hard for me to get my head round the logic apologies

It's the way I work H. Works for me. AK was narrowly beaten by The Fugue at York when he had probably had enough and on ground the connections were unhappy with. JG thought The Fugue could have won the Eclipse if she was right but she didn't. So I couldn't split them. Magician ran down The Fugue and needed all of the 12f in US. The Fugue probably should have beaten Dominant who last time finished just ahead of Magician. So between the three there is not a lot.
Magician won a weak Irish 1000 Gns and The Fugue was placed in a weak Oaks. AK has already been well outpointed in the Arc. None of their form should put them in with a fighting chance of winning an Arc.

Most of the Arcs I've seen, including the good ones, have had some very average horses (certainly worse than those mentioned) finishing much closer than 10 lengths to the winner.

That is absolutely correct but I suggest they weren't backable and weren't expected. It happens. I am talking about before the event. If I knew what happened after the event  before it happened I would be a happy man. So the point is meaningless in this context.

Loads of them were backable, only last year Intello was only 9/1, hard to believe he'd be very short in the betting if he was a runner tomorrow.

Or even Wednesday

You thought Intello was an average horse? Lost me there. If you would back The Fugue, Al Kazeem or Magician to win an Arc you can leave me out. I don't think any of them would even be placed. That's probably why their trainers never went to Paris with two of them last year or the year before. Simply not good enough.

He was no better than average in Gp1 terms, I doubt too many people would have him far ahead in a market with Al Kazeem, The Fugue and Magician all at peak.

You must be having a pretty big bet on Treve given her odds, Brig, if it means recouping you losses/investments on Aus for the Arc.

In anycase it is weird logic you are using to justify backing her. She may well get beaten here and still win the Arc. And both her and Aus could get get beaten in the Arc. We still in June and there will be improvers throughout the year.

I really can't see Coolmore making the Arc a priority for Australia, they're not going to gear the rest of his campaign around a race with a decent probability of being run on soft ground at the end of a long season.

They have never targeted the Arc, Figgis. 1 win from 50 or so runners and that was very fortunate with Dylan Thomas.

that will be a shocker if THE fugue is good enough to beat TREVE IMO

I recouped my losses on Oz in the Derby Sin thanks. I had two choices lay off on Oz when he won the Derby or wait to see what happens. If Treve wins, and she should, she will be a danger to Oz in the Arc. So as I think she will win the POW I will back her to cover my Oz stake in the Arc. If she wins my bet in the Arc is a free one and I don't need to look for a saver. Works for me.

If you can't see Coolmore making the Arc a priority I wonder what you are thinking about sometimes. Everyone with a horse of this class makes the Arc a priority. If the ground goes against him there is the Champion Stakes and Breeders Cup. Ridiculous statement.

How many decent Derby winners this century who stayed in training missed the Arc?

No, I know, sint. If Australia could win the Irish Derby and, say the KG or Irish Champion I doubt they'll even run him in France. They didn't run Galileo after his Irish Champion defeat. They only ran Camelot because having failed to complete the triple crown his 3yo cv looked a bit bare. Likewise Ruler of the World only ran as he failed to add to his Derby. I think he's an unlikely runner never mind winner.

Everyone with a horse of this class makes the Arc a priority.

Galileo?

How many decent Derby winners this century who stayed in training missed the Arc?

What makes you think he'll stay in training?

^ Will you stop banging that silly drum. Australia will not run in the Irish Derby or King George. He will run in the Eclipse, Irish Champion Stakes and Arc. And if the ground is too soft in the Arc he will run in the Champion Stakes or Breeders Cup turf. Sometimes I think you have no idea about racing.

Galileo retired BEFORE the ARC. And that wasn't the question.

Galileo retired BEFORE the ARC.

And what makes you think Australia won't be?

Galileo ran at the Breeders Cup

Treve should be the bet of the meeting. The form says so and the clock says even more so.

I've had the debate with Brig before.
Last year was the first time they have given their top 3 year old a proper Arc prep. Mid season break then Niel/Arc.
Australia will probably have the Arc on his agenda but it wont be the be all and end all for them. It never is.
Irish Derby, Eclipse, King George, Irish Champion and the Breeders Cup are all possibles.

The arc isnt the be all and end all for them because its a race that can expose hype horses. Saying a horse only likes good ground is another excuse to miss the arc. Its conveinant to advert the derby as the big one  when horses like rule the world and pour moi can win it.

Brig, you do realise AOB has said he'll go Irish Derby if ground is suitable? And that Sea The Star only skipped it because the ground was not. Irish trainers support Irish Classics.

All AOB's previous Derby winners ran in the Irish Derby in their next race.

Graeme the Arc is the No.1 race and Australia will have that as his main target and all roads will lead to Longchamp. To think otherwise is to think Australia will run in the Derrinstown and not the 2000Gns.
Sin when did you listen to what AOB said. He will run in the Eclipse not the Irish Derby.
And the fact his other ran in the Irish Derby means nothing he has other horses for that race and possibly only Magician for the Eclipse.

I don't listen to him. I hear what he says and then look for evidence to see if it is true or not. As it stands, all his Epsom Derby winners have ran in the Irish Derby on their next start. IF the ground comes up Good AND they decided to skip it, then this will represent a change in protocol for them and only then will I believe he is being trained for the Arc. At this stage there is NO evidence for it. To say otherwise is to purely guess.

Brigust, i can't see that race being his main target when there's a decent chance the ground might not be good, and if it's a good race i wouldn't back him. I think they will go for the easiest target, whatever that turns out to be.

Sakhee won the 2001 Arc that Galileo Avoided,
Both horses then ran in the Breeders Cup Classic on Dirt,
Tiznow beat Sakhee by a Nose with Galileo 7 1/2L away.

Fantastic Light beat Galileo in the Irish Champion stakes by a Head,
Fantastic Light then Won the Breeders Cup on Turf.

It's the way I work H. Works for me. AK was narrowly beaten by The Fugue at York when he had probably had enough and on ground the connections were unhappy with




shame they ran in different races really brigust1

You are right H I mean't Leopardstown. Its the same difference. The track wasn't the important thing.

Greame I really wonder whether any of you guys understand racing at all. I beat my head against a wall interminably about Australia running in the 2000 Gns and now some of you are saying the Arc won't be a main target. Either you are on the wind up or you really should get to know this sport a bit more. And saying you wouldn't back him while at the moment he must be the most likely winner is even sillier.

It may well be in the agenda, ground permitting, but its your use of "main target" that is causing the debate.

If we knew he would have a late summer break and be freshened up for Longchamp then we could agree. But this outfit do not do this.

You are stating he will definitely run in the group 1 Irish Champion just 3 weeks before the Arc!!!!

Yes Brigust, i am questioning whether or not a good ground horse as advertised will have a arc as his main target, ran by an operation who say the derby is the be all and end all, and who dont want this horse beat. I can think of more reasons why they wont run him in the arc. I will let you think you know it all. Although i suspect you know more about bambi and dumbo than you know about horses.

Brandy Sea the Stars won both and Treve ran 3 weeks before last years Arc. Didn't do either of them any harm. What I am eluding to is this season Australia gets the allowances and that is a huge advantage. True the ground may not be to his liking then they can switch if they want to with the Champion Stakes and Breeders Cup turf. I know AOB says he will have to talk to the lads etc but I am absolutely certain the Arc will be his main target from now on. The Eclipse and Irish Champion Stakes are nice races but no-one at this stage of the season will have them as their main targets. So I think the only reason he may not run is the ground but they will have to train him for in the hope that the ground is OK. And don't forget he has run only twice this season while STS ran 6 times.

My view is that he will run in the Irish Derby and then be put away for the Irish Champion Stakes and then the Arc if the ground is suitable for  those races. On decent ground I think he is the perfect type for Longchamp, he'll cruise around on the bridle and then unleash his turn of foot.

If the ground is not suitable then they have other options in the Champion Stakes and Breeders Cup. I would be disappointed if they choose to wrap him up in cotton wool and decide to avoid the Arc which is generally considered to be the championship middle distance race of the season but as we all know their decisions are usually heavily influenced by  their commercial interests.

I'd love to see him in the Arc. At this moment he would be my selection but you just don't know with this outfit.

Comparing him to Treve and Sea The Stars does not back up your argument.

Treve had the typical French prep for the Arc. Won the Prix de Diane then rested till trials weekend.
Sea The Stars wasn't trained with the Arc as his main target, he was able to take a lot of racing because he always kept enough back by only doing enough in his races.  In the lead up to the Arc connection were concerned he had gone over the top.

Like I say I hope Australia runs in the race as its the best race of the year and 3 year olds get an advantage. He may take his racing and turn up fresh and well. They may train him purposely for the race, but personally, on past evidence I doubt it.

Any way back to the Prince of Wales.

Brig is so badly talking through his pocket it is beginning to ruin threads. Of course Aus has only ran twice, it is June ffs. STS ran 6 times because you are speaking with the benefit of hindsight. You've backed Aus for the Arc, now forget about it until he gets there!

Calm down Sin ffs. It's a horse racing forum. All I did was explain why I was backing Treve. Everyone else including you jumped on me. Read the thread.

Treve is a fantastic filly,  winner of the Arc by five lengths , gets every yard of a mile four , picked her for the Arc , nothing not to like about her ,   but but but  today they run over ten furlongs on fast or nearly fast ground , this is just the type of race for the Fugue to excel in if she is one hundred percent , just give it to the magnificent french   filly but it may be closer than is assumed GL

figgis , should have read your thoughts before spouting off , anyhow  no matter , we are fully agreed that the available price  for Treve is plain daft

Treve's price is atrocious.

I have backed Mukhadram eachway. He was runner-up in the race last year having shown a lower level of form. This year he comes into the race having finished 2nd in the Dubai World Cup.

I don't know how strong the wind is today but that was a seriously fast time for the first, either a strong tailwind or the fastest ground I've seen at Ascot for a few years.

They have now changed the Official going to Good to Firm.

wey hey

well done figgis  and all supporters

good call figgis very well done

well done winners ,great race ,turning into a great meeting ,all dou not haven the winner in all the big races ,i have still enjoyed them greatly ,and i usually dont enjoy loose n money

well done Figgis.

Tactics changed on Mukhadram today. But I should have just layed Treve anyway. She was an appalling price, mental to back at those odds.

wd Mac.

Ta, lads. Very enjoyable

ye strange hannigan asked for a pace maker when he could of dictated the fractions on an habitual leader

cheers sint , Treve ran the Horse who ran Frankel close to a neck   last time , can win Arc again with a bit of luck , not her ground today and not her distance either , The Fugue better than ever .

WD, good write up as well

WD Figgis- kicking myself for not place laying Mukhadram - said all last year that Al Kazeem was just a Group 2 horse horse beating Group 3 animals.

And what of todays tactics, Uncle?

Great performance from The Fugue and was a good renewal of the POW. Treve to my eye looked uncomfortable going to post though. Her ears were back and her action was horrible.

Oh and no idea what they were doing on the Hamdan horses. Absolute shoot yourself in the face with a shotgun stuff.

Classic case of over complicating things with the Hamdan runners - utterly pointless running the pacemaker.

I worry about Treve ever showing her top form again - her Arc performance was so remarkable it reminded me of Hawkwings Lockinge - he also never reproduced it again.

It looks like Treve was a benefactor in the Arc of the overly generous 3yo fillies allowance that made her look better than she was, and the rubbish about overcoming a bad draw when a high draw is only disadvantageuos on fast ground.  In this years Arc it will be yet again a 3yo filly or two that outrun their ability as they have been doing now for over a decade.

Well done Figgis, great write up and reasoning

so you think the allowance made her look better than she really was thought treve delivered an amazing performance in the
arc and easily had the best form coming into that race. so far has been unbackable at the prices and has lost nothing in defeat for
me so far. trainer reported something wrong with the horse yesterday, was never travelling well from the start. wouldnt argue that
the allowance helps, thats why its more than likely the reason 3yo's do so well.

Agree with Roadrunner , probably had a hard enough race against Cirus  last time  and found ground  a bit firm yesterday, Frankie looked after her , no use of the whip ?  long way to go to October .

People are just remembering her Arc win, forgetting she won just as impressively in the Vermeille and Prix Diane where allowances have little or no relevance.

She did receive 8lbs from Wild Coco.

Treve was so superior to anything last season that I really don't feel she needs to have improved to be winning G1's as a 4yo. She ran well against Cirrus in deep ground and I just don't think she was right yesterday. Stick 8lbs on her back in last years Arc she would have still won it well so I don't get this theory that she has to improve. Basically they are not machines and she has yet to be seen in the type of form she was in as a 3yo. Hopefully Head can get her back to her best at some point this season as the last thing we want is to see more of these unbeaten stars getting retired as 3yo's.

Stick 8lbs on her back in last years Arc she would have still won it well

No doubt at all, but it all depends how highly you rate the actual form of that race and how likely you think it would be repeated. Would she really have been that superior in a truly run race on better ground when meeting horses at their peak? Not for me.

do accept the point about the  three year old filly allowance for the race much too lenient .

Not this can't believe we're talking about allowances again some of the great performances in history haver been by horses gettign weight from the others Dancing Brave, Sea Bird, Nijinksy, Generous, Mill Reef, etc. These horse didn't look great just because they were getting weight and neither did Treve last October.

The point being made is that when a 3yo is given a rating of 130 it's really only achieved a rating of 122 in real terms. For it to achieve the same rating as a 4yo it needs to improve 8lbs in real terms, many don't.

*Given a rating of 130 when in receipt of 8lbs