Horse Antepost
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The favourite Shamkala has been comfortably winning races run at a crawl, whether she'll be as good in a truly run race I have no idea but wouldn't even entertain the idea of backing her at current odds to find out. Connections say she doesn't show too much at home, is that because she saves her best for the track or has she simply had her own way on the racecourse so far against mediocre opposition? She could be the real deal but she could also be another Flintshire, who was also overrated after winning off early crawls.
I don't believe Avenir Certain was a good French Guineas winner and don't fancy her here.
I reckon Miss France was well up to standard as the winner of the Guineas but the way the race was run concealed her true superiority over the field. Apart from meaning she'll be underrated it hopefully should also mean she wouldn't have had too hard a race there and she's been well rested anyway for this. Soft ground would be an unknown but Fabre doesn't seem too worried and with any luck it will be like most French descriptions where soft ground is overstated. I don't really know for sure if she'll stay the extra distance but the trainer thinks so and at the price it's definitely worth the risk. Even with the stamina doubt she'd be favourite in my book and if she does stay I can't see her out of the frame.
I don't believe Avenir Certain was a good French Guineas winner and don't fancy her here.
I reckon Miss France was well up to standard as the winner of the Guineas but the way the race was run concealed her true superiority over the field. Apart from meaning she'll be underrated it hopefully should also mean she wouldn't have had too hard a race there and she's been well rested anyway for this. Soft ground would be an unknown but Fabre doesn't seem too worried and with any luck it will be like most French descriptions where soft ground is overstated. I don't really know for sure if she'll stay the extra distance but the trainer thinks so and at the price it's definitely worth the risk. Even with the stamina doubt she'd be favourite in my book and if she does stay I can't see her out of the frame.
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While you have to respect the connections of Shamlaka (especially when it comes the the Diane) I agree that she shouldn't be favourite taking on two Guineas winners. Both Guineas winners have slight doubts though so it's a watching brief for me.
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From a TTF point of view I hope Shamkala wins, but I agree that 11/8 looks a short price based on the reasons aboove. I originally thought Miss France was more of an Oaks horse so don't really see why an extra 2 furlongs should be a problem. At 11/2 she could look a big price later but i'll just be watching this one!
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dont know much about the french form, avenir certain hast done anything wrong so far, miss france not sure what that horses fav ground is? like you say fav is short on what it has achieved, quickened nicely and eased LTO, presume that was somekind of trial race for todays race. do like miss france and certainly lived up to expectations in the 1000 guineas. gl all
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Avenir Certain now a double classic winner. No excuses for Shamkala in 4th or Miss France. Just not good enough.
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Maybe Shamkala is much better on softer ground being by Pivotal?
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The horse she beat very easily last time out, Amour A Papa, turned the form around today. Possible ground excuses imo.
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havent watched any of those french races, the winner had the best form in the book, miss france had more to prove in those conditions.
you was right about the fav being too short figgis. |
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Apart from getting the race wrong I don't really know what to make of that result on first impressions. The winner is obviously better than I thought but the bunched finish behind raises questions about the quality of the result given it looked a good pace. Miss France was travelling well enough then got squeezed out at a vital stage, not that she would've won, but I'm not sure stamina was the reason as she seemed to be running on again at the finish. Maybe she's just not as good as I thought but even so it's a surprise that so many moderate fillies finished so close.
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This filly continues to surprise and impress. She has a fine turn of foot.
Not sure how to rate the race as like said above they've all finished in a heap behind. She maybe is just better than a very ordinary bunch of fillies. I was hoping the favourite would continue her upward curve but she was very disappointing. |
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Winner looks a smart filly, but the heaped finish behind makes the form difficult to pin down. Fav looks on the face of it to be over rated unless something comes to light for her run, interesting to hear the views of Sumi on that.
Miss France granted better luck in running would have finished 2nd imo, she got hemmed in at a crucial point of the race, jockey waited just a split second to long to make his move on her, but she was running on well in the final furlong. |
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the pricewise pick...lavender lane...has a race in here.
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Didn't play but thought beforehand that Shamkala was worse value than Australia had been but so much confidence in the market that she had to be there., especially as the ground given in the paper was soft which wouldn't suit either MF or AC. As usual in France, we were put away on the ground and it rode good to firm imo.
AC was a taking winner and I wouldn't be too concerned about the bunched finish as the bare distances don't do justice to her superiority. Couln't see any excuse for MF other than the trip. Shamkala has to be given another chance on softer ground over 12f.Think ground is key and she might still figure for the Arc. |
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It just looked to me that Shamkala couldn't handle a faster pace than she'd been used to before. If her form beforehand on soft ground amounted to much I'd be willing to forgive her the run but I think she's just another French runner that looks good off a slow early pace.
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Couldn't have her on my mind for the Arc at all.
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Couldn't have her on my mind for the Arc at all.
A term which implies certainty whereas the evidence is that she has speed (previous run) handles/needs soft(previous run which on balance she will get),and is bred to be better at 12f than 10f, and was well-supported despite being well behind on ratings suggesting stable confidence. All of which adds up imo to her being better than her run yesterday. Deserves another chance imo. |
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Jockey was at his reigns on her after 2 furlongs. Wouldn't be surprised if she prefers it softer.
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Maybe the favourite would have preferred some cut in the ground, but a few of her relatives have group 1 form on a fast surface.
True enough she will be better over a bit further but her lack of speed yesterday was/is a concern. You need to be able to quicken in the Arc and that would put me off. Like you say she deserves another chance but at the moment I couldn't entertain her. |
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avenir certain thats won 6 in a row now, suppose dropping down to group 2 made its task lot easier, there has been lot of group 3 winners coming from those races.
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It will be very interesting if she meets Treve in the Prix Vermeille.
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Going straight for the Arc apparently.
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I can't blame them. Keep the dream alive. A three year old filly, unbeaten so has an obvious chance. I'm not sure I would back her as the race stands but there are a lot of other unknowns.
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should make the ARC more interesting this year with AC in the race unbeaten. could be a good race year if all the high profile horses turn up.
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To complete a U turn I have just had a punt at 16s with 356. Still available if anyone interested?
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