Horse Antepost
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Really looking forward to this one . I fancy Activial and this is why:
Activiall won a 2 mile Group 2 juvenile at Kempton latest. The ground was soft, but not bottomless. He travelled well, albeit a little keenly but that was understandable as the pace was only steady. The form looks decent – the third horse ran well at Cheltenham off a mark of 135, and Actival was probably a stone better than that one (albeit receiving 7 pounds). I think he won in spite of the steady pace, rather than because of it and he looked to be extending close home. With that in mind, the likely stronger pace should help. I really like this horse, I was impressed by his latest offering and I reckon that he’s capable of a 150+ performance if the chips fall right. I’m a bit surprised that Harry Fry didn’t send him to Cheltenham, but the flip side is that he’ll be fighting fit for this and I think he can lower the colours of the first four home in the Triumph. The course and distance should suit fine. The ground won't be an issue either. I'm hoping for at least 8/1 when the prices are released.
Activiall won a 2 mile Group 2 juvenile at Kempton latest. The ground was soft, but not bottomless. He travelled well, albeit a little keenly but that was understandable as the pace was only steady. The form looks decent – the third horse ran well at Cheltenham off a mark of 135, and Actival was probably a stone better than that one (albeit receiving 7 pounds). I think he won in spite of the steady pace, rather than because of it and he looked to be extending close home. With that in mind, the likely stronger pace should help. I really like this horse, I was impressed by his latest offering and I reckon that he’s capable of a 150+ performance if the chips fall right. I’m a bit surprised that Harry Fry didn’t send him to Cheltenham, but the flip side is that he’ll be fighting fit for this and I think he can lower the colours of the first four home in the Triumph. The course and distance should suit fine. The ground won't be an issue either. I'm hoping for at least 8/1 when the prices are released.
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At least 8/1 eh? Even though you rate him highly, and his missed the festival to be saved for this race? Guess it all depends on what the opposition is.
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* he missed
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I'm working off the basis that 2 or 3 of the first four home in the Triumph turn up, and that he is initially priced up incorrectly by people looking at his OR and thinking he has 10 pounds to find with the rest of the field...
...but I may be being optimistic.  |
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tbf, I think 2 or 3 of the triumph field will line up so it should be a competitive betting race. PFN is going to make a late call on Calipto.
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Activial was last seen winning impressively when landing the Adonis Juvenile Hurdle at Kempton in February, and the Aintree curtain-raiser has been the target ever since.
The four-year-old grey already has many admirers and Fry is convinced missing Cheltenham was the right thing to do. He said: "I have no regrets about side-stepping the Triumph Hurdle with Activial and keeping him fresh for Aintree. "While I felt he lacked the necessary experience for Cheltenham I am very much looking forward to seeing him run this week. "Noel Fehily was here to school him and he's worked nicely since. "I think he surprised us both by the way he quickened up so smartly at Kempton to win with plenty in hand on a track that tends to favour the speedier horses. "The long-galloping straight at Aintree should play to his strengths." |
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8/1no chance pal
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Lucky to get half that imo.
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You guys might be right - will take anything over 3/1, but really hoping for something more
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Why do you think he'll turn the form round with Calipto?
Presumably because he has been saved for this rather than had a rough race in the Triumph? |
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I don't see how he turns it round with Calipto either, who was desperately unlucky to have broken an iron before the last flight in the Triumph - his 4th place an amazing effort being that he was ridden cowboy style. Under the circumstances he deserves to be given another chance, although Tiger Roll was a very impressive winner and he would be a worthy fav if lining up.
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Calipto walked all over him at Newbury, I should think you'll have no problem getting over 3-1.
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Was 6s with Billies now 9/2.
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Don't leave Fox Norton out of calculations, trainer has been mopping up decent class Juvenile and Novice Hurdles with lesser fancied runners all season.
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Can't see how he reverses form with Calipto either. The iron going meant the latter didn't have a tough race at all at Chelts.
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Agree Calipto 7/2 good price imo
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I'm with you both. Happy to back Calipto at 7/2
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Hving bet Calipto at much bigger prices at Chelt I don't really want 7-2 now. Clarcam at 16's with paddy, money back 2nd or 3rd appeals. If Calipto drifts I might come back.
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Anyone give Commissioned a squeak?
Only had two starts over hurdles... three on the flat when with Mark Johnston rated 94... beaten 3+ lengths by OP's selection at Kempton but was squeezed for room approaching two out and had to switch... by Authorized similar to Tiger Roll who won Triumph... trainer in good form since Chelters with 3 winners from a handful of runners... Wore first-time blinkers at Kempton but was still spooked approaching line, a bit concerning... trainer also has Broughton running in race... seems easy to back on here... Maybe one that's slipped under the radar? Race can throw up surprises... will be having a few sheckles on meself... |
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Presumably O'Regan has picked him over Broughton?
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One would assume that is the case ACS... McCoy being on Broughton muddies the waters a little... Commissioned out to 20s in some places... have backed accordingly with a saver on Auroras D'estruval... good luck all...
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just wonder whether this ground is what activial really wants...he is plenty short enough here on what he has actually achieved, so am happy to let him win, the O.P was right i think when said he should be about 8-1 not the skinny 5-1 we are getting here, horrible is the only way to describe his price here...
aurore destruval is an interesting runner but is plenty short enough, she is very fluent at her hurdles, i do like her and as much as i like guitar pete here i just wonder whether he wants more cut in the ground but do respect him and he is a nice price here on all known form (should place at least imo)...fox norton is respected but must of have a problem so hard to be confident about him(he is the unknown)...calipto has a lot going for him here as was cantering when his stirrup leather broke last time, he is worthy favorite...clarcam is an unknown as was going well last time but it was a very heavy fall for the youngster i cannot help but think everything went wrong for broughton last time and with mccoy, the hood and track likely to suit i think he is a bit of value here at 14-1 so a bet on him, just hope they ride him a little more prominently, a saver on aurore destruval, guitar pete will do for me gl luck as is a very tricky heat imo |
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Today is Guitar Pete's 14th start under both codes in 11 months... a lot for a four-year old... am wondering how good the form of the Triumph will turn out... I'm being sucked in by juveniles by Authorized... clearly not got a decent sample size to go on yet though...
like you say harry a tricky heat and for me a potential placepot buster... cheers. |
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ye agree was definitely a poor triumph although the winner on 3rd start is probably a good horse...not sure this will be a placepot buster colupaul as am really struggling to get calipto out the frame...
if the ground were soft i really think guitar pete would be a really good ew bet and enhance activial chances but it looks like being good ground so not really that confident to get a result here tbh...tough tough race betting wise unless you are just bailing out on the favorite and i think you will get a good run for your money, so just hopeful i can get him really |
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Good luck mate... for the record I'm on Actival, Commissioned & Auroras in my pot... Nicholls yard under a bit of a cloud possibly... happy to leave Calipto out... but more than happy if he wins for many on here and assuming he goes off fav and wins I'll get my money back on Commissioned!
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ye be lucky...he is another horse hard to fathom commissioned but he will like this ground, might just have a saver on him although personally didn't think much to the adonis myself, however that race has fooled me before and is generally won by a decent horse...horrible race this betting wise, lets hope we come out the other side unscathed
 ...dynaste will be painful today if he wins |
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I'm on FL in the Bowl and a bit each-way on HDO... will be place laying Conti... however, a romp for Dynaste is not wholly unlikely...
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well not keen on dynaste myself...really did beat some drains the last day, so am keen to get him at the under price
i wouldn't be so keen to get silvi conti myself, think he will get loose on the easy lead here and am playing him at the generous odds...menorah is a proper track specialist and can chase him home, we hope |
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Have put my money where my mouth is... place lays of Calipto and Guitar Pete... for small steaks...
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What do I know!
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Clarcam 1.03... Commissioned 1.57... busted... well done winners...
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ye shame that...really liked the guitar horse as couldn't get him out the frame just my own demons stopped me from letting the handbrake off
chin up colu |
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Cheers harry... onwards and upwards... Commissioned looked a difficult ride to say the least!
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ye he wasn't easy thought he would place but didn't want to know...juveniles really look an average bunch...tiger roll could be good moving forwards though
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Well played with Conti, harry...
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thx pal...jeezz did i want that argocat to nail dynaste had a tasty 10 in running the place...apologies for aftertime but only spotted in the run
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It seems Nicholls yard is in fine fettle... won't be dismissing his runners for the rest of the meet...
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Harry - what's your picks for the big one on Saturday? Wayward Prince, The Package & Quito De La Roque for me... might go in with one more on the day...
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well after getting my arse kicked last year when i went for a life changer on chicago bay(hound) i have learnt my lesson...not a big betting race but maybe monbeg, prince or pineau but nothing major colu just some fun unless i find some inspiration...fancy a couple saturday just praying the rain scuppers 3 days of solid race reading
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the rain doesn't scupper^...no rain please sir
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