Horse Antepost
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Looked at this race few for a weeks... the two horses that I fancy at big prices are MONBEG DUDE (10/1) and WELL REFRESHED (14/1)
In terms of value I think they will be a lot shorter, Well Refreshed won this last year by 10 lengths... Think the horse didnt seem to like CHepstow... and was uncharacteristically bad until being pulled up. But based on what he did last year I think he is worth a second look at 14/1. Monbeg Dude was 3rd last year, but i think he is a better horse this year my only concern is whether they would give him a hard race, as the Grand National is his main aim.
I would bet on these two before Mondays declaration, as I have a gut feeling these will be a lot shorter in the afternoon
Good Luck
In terms of value I think they will be a lot shorter, Well Refreshed won this last year by 10 lengths... Think the horse didnt seem to like CHepstow... and was uncharacteristically bad until being pulled up. But based on what he did last year I think he is worth a second look at 14/1. Monbeg Dude was 3rd last year, but i think he is a better horse this year my only concern is whether they would give him a hard race, as the Grand National is his main aim.
I would bet on these two before Mondays declaration, as I have a gut feeling these will be a lot shorter in the afternoon
Good Luck
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Could do without Monbeg having a hard race in this and one or two of my other GN fancys
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Neptune Collonges had a tough enough race in this on heavy the year he won the National so I would n't be too worried about that - though there is a week less between the two races this year, to be fair.
Would n't argue too much against either of those as they were 1st and 3rd last year. The other one that catches my eye after a quick scan down the list is Godsmejudge who was still progressive before his lacklustre effort at Sandown which was surely something to do with the general malaise afflicting the King stable - he's available at 25/1 but not sure this race is the plan. The trainer did say at the start of the season that he would not be campaigned to protect his mark for the National, though that plan has long since gone awry. There might be a big field for this as there is only 3 weeks between Cheltenham and Aintree this year so I doubt too many will want to prep in a competitive handicap at the Festival or down the field in the Gold Cup. |
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Big fan of Godsmejudge here as well, and as you say ReaseHeath his recent poor shows must have been down to the general problems at Kings yard
Would much prefer to see Hutchinson ride him and he also has an entry at Ascot on Saturday Would also fancy Across the Bay to run a big race. Plenty of weight but has a great record round Haydock |
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WELL REFRESHED for me
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Merry King my old pal has lost for me on his last two starts but his running on 3rd the last day was eycatching. He'll get an extra 3 furlongs this time and crucially Tony McCoy in the saddle, I think AP will make a huge difference to this horse who is a bit lazy, he needs to be cajoled along and often gets outpaced. So the Champ can get an extra 6 or so lbs out of this horse I'm sure. Ground, track, trip all perfect.
2pts Merry King @ 9/1 general Also has 1pt Well Refreshed @ 8/1 http://jumpsadvisor.com/weekend-preview.html @cvbyrne |
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Father Time will have his ground unlike in the Hennessy when I thought he ran a credible race where they were going a little to quick for him on that faster ground. The other one would be Emperors Choice down the bottom and only 5lbs higher for his last win. Will love the ground and is still improving fast and the further he went the better he travelled. Will have a bet on both.
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^ you mean Our Father, right?
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Loch Ba for me. Backed him at the start of week at 20's so pleased to see him half in price. Thought he ran well here last time, getting outpaced before staying on well towrds the finish. Would have been much closer at Warwick lto if he hadnt ploughed through one down the back, stayed on really well at the end. Has beaten Mountainous all ends up twice on soft ground so culd still be well in here. Would be wary of Emperors Choice given how poorly he ran here last time and Merry King appeared to be keeping something back last time and i think has become a bit of a thinker.
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Loch Ba is best fresh, I've avoided him since his Bangor 2nd
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He does have a good record fresh and 1st time up in particular but only went down by 1/2 a length between his two wins last season, just 2 weeks after the first. If it was the case then he would surely have been kept back for the 3m2f chase at Newbury in late March which is a nice pot and in his back yard and a nice 10 or 11 week break between races. Only other viable target if he does need to be fresh would be Ayr national but thats a big gamble for a soft ground horse. lets see how he goes on saturday.
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Just read your earlier post CV re Merry King. He got a fairly vigorous ride from Ritchie lto and to my eye was holding something back as he jumped each fence in the straight high and well and didnt look the slightest bit tired. If AP does make a difference then this and even a National would be viable but he's 0 from 4 on the horse so far and Im not convinced by him at all.
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race not really capturing my imagination, struggling to come up with an original thought - Merry King does look big at 9/1 though - got a nice pull from Peter Marsh with Wychwoods Brook and with Hawkes Point from Welsh National even before you factor in the assistance of McCoy- there are doubts about the other two in front of him in the market - for me, Our Father has disappointed over fences since Open Meeting last season and Well Refreshed coming off a P and only run one decent race this season (I appreciate Moore said he was sick after the last day).
I'm not sure why Merry King is n't favourite - he's very consistent and should surely at least make the frame. Only advantage some of the others has is that they might be a bit fresher but MK as hard as nails, thought the Peter Marsh might come a bit soon for him after the Welsh National but he ran creditably. |
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change of jockey is interesting, McCoy only ridden him once over fences and not since Oct 12.
...but MK also held/holds an entry at Ascot on Sat with McLernon as jockey, guess that's weather related - he does look like most high profile mount for AP at Haydock. |
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Looks like Godsmejudge is going to Ascot
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2:55
BETFRED GRAND NATIONAL TRIAL (HANDICAP CHASE) (GRADE 3) (CLASS 1) (5yo+) Winner £42,713 14 runners 3m5f Heavy CH4 NO. FORM HORSE AGE WGT TRAINER RTF% JOCKEY OR TS RPR 1 10-581 Across The Bay 47 tb 10 11-12 Donald McCain52 Jason Maguire 149 126 154 2 124-7 Our Father 77 t 8 11-8 David Pipe81 Conor O'Farrell 145 118 150 3 12P-42 Hawkes Point 49 9 11-6 Paul Nicholls50 Ryan Mahon 143 142 154 4 7-2F11 Wychwoods Brook 28 8 11-5 Evan Williams56 Conor Ring7 142 134 158 5 1P-03P Well Refreshed 49 10 11-4 Gary Moore50 Joshua Moore3 141 105 160 6 0-2553 Merry King 28 v 7 11-2 Jonjo O´Neill59 A P McCoy 139 141 158 7 917-54 Soll 14 p 9 11-1 Jo Hughes Mark Grant 138 129 157 8 16P-1P Nuts N Bolts 51 t 8 11-1 Lucinda Russell33 Peter Buchanan 138 103 160 9 P-4624 Wellforth 37 p 10 10-9 Barry Brennan Felix De Giles 132 112 154 10 U1U34 Le Reve 39 p 6 10-8 Lucy Wadham50 Dougie Costello 131 128 155 11 212PP- Rigadin De Beauchene 301 9 10-8 Venetia Williams60 Robert Dunne3 131 99 161 12 7-6P71 Emperor´s Choice 14 5x 7 10-8 Venetia Williams60 Aidan Coleman 131 135 160 13 5-2024 Loch Ba 35 8 10-7 Mick Channon100 Mr H A A Bannister7 130 145 161 14 14-2PP Red Rocco 30 v1 7 10-4 Nigel Twiston-Davies38 Sam Twiston-Davies 127 — 160 |
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Godsmejudge not declared at Ascot either so it looks like we'll have to wait for him.
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Yes Reaseheath I meant Our Father
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i,m on merry king at 9,s but dont automaticaly think ap is a plus for this horse,has his own way of getting over a fence and his usual jock justn lets him get on with it,might not take to mcoy making its mind up for him,lets hope i,m wrong
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I'd have to disagree with you there 1st time. Think AP will get big improvement out of the horse, along with the extra trip.
Though he's fast becoming a cliff horse for me  |
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and me,
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Our Father to be the big gamble tomorrow. Big performance big pay day.
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Our Father into 5/1 Fav. I'm obviously missing something as I can't see why its so short. Only ran once on heavy ,and was well
beaten, the trainer blamed the ground. Segal has just said the ground will suit on the Morning Line. Confused! Far too short IMO |
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I agree, Giddy - stable in good form now but horse priced up on perceived potential rather than what he's actually achieved - in fact, he's on the verge of becoming a disappointing animal over fences (watch him hack up now!).
I've backed Merry King ew at 8/1 - gone for ew option because he does n't win very often despite invariably running well - only one win over fences. I've also had a little bit on Across The Bay at 21 on here - does n't seem too harshly treated after his CD win on heavy in The Last Fling Chase just after Christmas and his trainer has a good record in similar races at the track. Good luck, all. |
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Another I like is NUTS N BOLTS... won at the course 2 runs back and suited to the ground and distance.
Trainer knows what it takes to win a race like this and has had a 6 week break. 14/1 is a big price |
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Well didnt we all do well!
Happy with the place money on Loch Ba and glad i didnt fall for Merry King who has questions to answer at the mo. Expect blinkers, tongue tie, hood and McLernon next time out!! Chac du cadran in the Eider next week folks. |
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Bit annoyed went for the 1st and 3rd last year... and thought the 2nd last year needed the run so didnt bother... how wrong was I!!!
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yep, hopeless - managed to backed the first two out of the race, one pulled up and the other UR when tailing off!
Having watched it, I'm now going to completely contradict my statement at the start of the thread - I think it could well be a blessing in disguise for Monbeg Dude's National chances that he was forced to miss that race, it was brutal! Surely significant that the winner was the freshest horse going into the race. Merry King probably telling connections he's had enough for the time being - he's only 7 though so still time for him to make further progress. Well done on at least getting the place money on Loch Ba, betily. |
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tbf to MErry King he was very badly hampered and the way he sprawled looks like he may have hurt himself a bit. He was in trouple so soon after that you'd imagine that was the reason why. I think he will go for the National and then he should be kepot for next season. The amount of money for him yesterday shows connections know he has a good mark.
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on a different note,highland lodge shouldnt be touched till first time out next season.steadily regressing.
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personally thought MK was already sending out a few distress signals before he was hapmpered, CV - although that clearly did n't help - as he's only 7 I'd be tempted to bypass Aintree and go to Ayr with him if fit and well for Scottish National, or even Fairyhouse.
We'll see. |
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I'm sorry but to put it nicely I couldn't disagree more with your opinion that AP was already sending out distress signals. I've just rewatched it to see if my memory has failed me, it has not, only 1/3rd of the race has gone before he's badly hampered and he was going absolutely fine at that stage.
I will likely give the horse another chance, the market support showed that connections clearly think he's well handicapped to win a big race like this. Jonjo had always said he'd like soft ground and so I think he may not be seen outside of the national until next season. |
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no need to be sorry - it's just a difference in opinion - also I said the horse not AP! Actually, on reflection, 'distress signals' was overstating it, just did n't think the horse looked particularly happy or comfortable prior to being hampered.
Like you, I'll follow his progress with interest - take the point about the ground but his chase form on GS is 122 (behind Rolling Aces and Houblon Des Obeaux respectively) so he'd be OK on that. |
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trainer stated post race that Merry King broke a blood vessel (burst from nose according to Racing UK).
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