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BJG
08 Jan 14 14:46
Joined:
Date Joined: 20 Aug 07
| Topic/replies: 28,180 | Blogger: BJG's blog
563011    Act Of Kalanisi43      8                 143    125    143
655/80    Alaivan49      8                 130    117    126
154-14    Ally Cascade55      6                 —    95    143
1S34    Arctic Fire43      5                 —    114    141
2O10-    Bordoni332      5                 132    28    68
1/20-1    Cheltenian39      8                 134    110    128
67-234    Chris Pea Green49      5                 142    126    142
750-01    Citizenship51      8                 135    122    138
2F8-44    Cotton Mill70    7                 150    137    152
21221    Deep Trouble63      7                 133    115    131
2121U    Dell´ Arca49      5                 136    119    134
112-24    Far West77      5                 146    142    150
F51P-P    First Avenue154      9                 140    128    140
21343    Flaxen Flare49      5                 —    126    142
1-112    Garde La Victoire57      5                 138    103    135
PP0-08    Get Me Out Of Here83      10                 149    131    150
231/59    Gibb River70      8                 142    120    141
131    Gilgamboa39      6                 —    121    140
110-0    Hidden Justice38      5                 133    78    89
F-3012    Ifandbutwhynot38      8                 141    139    142
213-F0    Irish Saint49      5                 140    130    139
111    Irving50      6                 143    131    146
6-0613    Jumps Road56      7                 135    111    143
11U0-0    Kashmir Peak35F      5                 133    97    120
486-12    Knight Of Pleasure56      5                 131    113    134
5113-6    Leo Luna112      5                 135    90    132
3F2-21    Marito38      8                 —    117    153
111-15    Melodic Rendezvous70      8                 152    148    158
6-4024    Midnight Game83      7                 —    114    147
32114/    Montbazon697      7                 140    —    —
0-2218    New Year´s Eve38      6                 123    96    122
255P-9    Petit Robin56      11                 —    107    160
15-167    Pine Creek49      6                 136    120    139
16-8    Poet75      9                 124    19    116
51F    Prince Siegfried50      8                 138    99    140
12-323    Prompter58      7                 127    109    127
31-212    Ptit Zig49      5                 159    140    159
21142    Purple Bay56      5                 131    120    131
500-11    Quick Jack85      5                 —    112    127
115/0F    Recession Proof49      8                 134    48    123
2128-3    River Maigue63      7                 142    118    140
4-1851    Rocky Wednesday43      7                 —    117    140
165-10    Rolling Star49      5                 150    126    153
376-04    Ruacana63      5                 141    123    139
32-123    Sametegal44      5                 150    134    149
111112    Sea Lord83      7                 150    138    150
25121    Sky Khan165      5                 125    107    130
6-3211    Smashing44      5                 —    107    148
3/24-4    Snake Eyes100      6                 123    97    115
55-431    Special Catch49      7                 134    113    136
42413    Splash Of Ginge50      6                 135    120    135
11    Stand To Reason42      6                 —    96    128
1/130-    Swing Bowler333      7                 136    87    139
31-111    The Skyfarmer57      6                 134    121    138
2115-P    Totalize49      5                 129    114    130
113313    Un Temps Pour Tout90      5                 147    -1    139
275-11    Upazo56      6                 —    108    145
23257-    Vasco Du Ronceray310      5                 139    122    140
63U-01    Vendor70      6                 138    107    138
12-113    Vicky De L´Oasis70      5                 —    103    129
2P-111    Willow´s Saviour49      7                 143    123    141
213-20    Zuider Zee77      7                 140    120    140






A total of 62 horses have been entered for the Betfair Hurdle, Europe's richest handicap hurdle race, at Newbury on 8 February.

The Grade 3 feature on Betfair Super Saturday, won in devastating fashion by leading Champion Hurdle contender My Tent Or Yours last year, has attracted a really strong cast of names headed up by Tony Martin's Quick Jack, who lived up to his name by beating a strong field at Cheltenham's Open meeting in November.

The form of that race has been franked by the runner-up, Deep Trouble, who took a Listed event at Sandown on his next start, and the third, Three Kingdoms, who has been victorious on his next two starts.

Paul Nicholls' Ptit Zig, who was a brilliant second off top-weight in the Ladbroke Hurdle last month, is another interesting contender.

Nicholls is also represented by the unbeaten Irving, favourite for the Supreme Novices' Hurdle, Triumph Hurdle runner-up Far West, Irish Saint and Sametegal.

His main rival for the champion trainer's title, Nicky Henderson, has engaged seven, with old-timer Petit Robin second in the weights. The Michael Buckley-owned pair of Rolling Star and River Maigue have also been entered along with stablemates Gibb River, Vasco du Ronceray, Snake Eyes and Stand To Reason as Henderson bids for a seventh win in the 2m 110y contest.

Philip Hobbs has a trio of viable contenders; 2011 Champion Bumper winner Cheltenian and promising novices Garde La Victoire and The Skyfarmer.

Ireland's champion trainer Willie Mullins spearheads a strong challenge from across the Irish Sea with seven runners of his own. Upazo, set to run in the rearranged Tolworth Hurdle this weekend, is the highest-rated of his septet.

One of last year's leading novices Melodic Rendezvous, victor of the Elite Hurdle at Wincanton on his seasonal reappearance, and record-breaking £230,000 summer purchase Dell' Arca, successful on his British debut in the Greatwood at Cheltenham before unseating in the Ladbroke, are other high-profile entries.

"Melodic Rendezvous continues to progress nicely following his muscle injury which emerged following his run at Newcastle in the StanJames.com Fighting Fifth where he was fifth to My Tent Or Yours," the Somerset handler told www.jeremyscottracing.net.

"Obviously we were hugely disappointed following that run, but at least he did have an injury which he could have picked up in the Elite at Wincanton where he slipped, although we can't be sure.

"We'll put an entry in Haydock on Saturday, January 18 for the StanJames.com Champion Hurdle Trial, although that will probably come too soon.

"We'll also enter him in the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury on Saturday, February 8. He's building up all the time, but the reality is that we won't know if he has fully recovered until he has run.

"It's only when horses are put under pressure that muscle injuries like that come to light. However, he's doing everything well enough at the moment."

Willow's Saviour is also on target for the race.

The seven-year-old has shot up the ratings since joining Dan Skelton and gave the Warwickshire-based trainer the first major win of his fledgling career in the Ladbroke at Ascot last month.

Willow's Saviour will find things tougher after he was raised 13lb, but Skelton is also considering the Supreme Novices' Hurdle for him at the Cheltenham Festival in March.

He said: "Immediately afterwards (the Ladbroke) I said we'd definitely go for the Betfair. Then I had a little flutter and thought about the Tolworth but I'm glad we didn't aim to go last week and obviously he's not running in it this week.

"I've basically been happy with him after the race, but it did take him 10 days to get back to his usual bubbly self.

"We'll go to the Betfair now and then on to Cheltenham where he'll have entries in the Supreme and County Hurdles.

"It's surreal how well it has gone this year, I couldn't have asked for more, I'm very happy with everything."

Julian Thick, Chief Executive of The Racecourse Newbury, commented; "The Betfair Hurdle is always one of the most popular races of the National Hunt calendar and we are absolutely thrilled by the quality of this year's entries.

"As the richest handicap hurdle in Europe it always attracts high-class animals and it will be really exciting to see if we have one in the same league of recent winners Zarkander or My Tent Or Yours lurking in the field."
Pause Switch to Standard View **Betfair Hurdle**
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Report ReaseHeath February 5, 2014 10:29 AM GMT
there's a lot more rain in all the forecasts I've seen for tomorrow and Friday.

S'pose the wind is a factor in drying ground between the deluges, in the lap of the Gods until Friday at earliest I would have thought, CoC assessments are usually on the optimistic side of good.

Did n't they reschedule the card for the following Friday when they had that horrible electrocution incident three years ago?
Report unclepuncle February 5, 2014 10:30 AM GMT
Another load to come I'm afraid.Sad
Report shockster February 5, 2014 10:35 AM GMT
Well I'm stuffed if it's off as I'm in London for the weekend and already booked train to Newbury and got entry tickets. If it gets rescheduled I'll be back in Yorkshire. Cry
Report penzance February 5, 2014 12:10 PM GMT
notice both Irish Saint and Irving
both been jocked up(SLife),Fehily
& Schofield.
Jacob's on Deep Trouble?(Nichols stable no 1)
Report sintonian February 5, 2014 2:23 PM GMT
Would be peeved if it is off too. Sitting pretty with 20/1 on Vendor, tops 14 now!
Report shockster February 5, 2014 3:44 PM GMT
Melodic Rendezvous is as well as we’ve ever had him says  Jeremy Scott, but with the current weather conditions showing no sign of letting up, we are in a quandary about where we should run.

He’s entered in Saturday’s Betfair Hurdle at Newbury, and a lot of horses have pulled out, which could prove tempting, but he will be giving some horses 2 stone and a tough race on heavy ground could mean he leaves his Festival chance at Newbury.

We also have the option of the Morebattle Hurdle at Kelso on February 13 and the Kingwell at Wincanton the following day but the weather forecast is shocking next week which could lead to further abandonments. His owners are coming over this evening and we will chat through all the options before making a decision.
Report duffy February 5, 2014 3:50 PM GMT
If he realized that he was highly unlikely to win the CH then the decision would be a lot easier and he'd be running this week-end....yes, you've got to give weight to horses but half of them won't go a yard and he'll sluice through it....got to take this chance to win this race in his favoured "bog".
Report shockster February 5, 2014 4:07 PM GMT
Couldn't agree more Duffy.  This race is worth £152k and he's well in.  This should be MR Champion Hurdle.
Report mary hinge February 5, 2014 4:10 PM GMT
Can't see Irving running and Far West will represent Axom.  25s way too big and Nicholls going well with 5yo handicap hurdles this season.

Sure to be well punted as rain continues to fall.
Report shockster February 5, 2014 4:20 PM GMT
Dell' Arca is proving popular with punters for Saturday's Betfair Hurdle at Newbury and Tom Scudamore reports David pipe's exciting young prospect in fine fettle for a trip to the Berkshire track.

The five-year-old arrived from France with a big reputation after being bought for 280,000 euros following two wins and a fine second to Vukovar in testing conditions there, and quickly repaid some of that purchase price by landing the Greatwood Hurdle at Cheltenham in November.

He was again travelling smoothly when unshipping Scudamore three out in The Ladbroke at Ascot after being badly hampered by another casualty but the jockey revealed he has been showing no ill effects from that mishap in his recent work at home.

"He seems very well," said Scudamore, whose intended mount is 38/5 on Betfair to oblige this weekend. "I sat on him the other week and he went well, we even schooled him over a fence.

"It was very unfortunate at Ascot, we were going well at the time and a horse fell in front of us, he went left and I went right. I felt like I was going comfortably at the time, I was very happy with him.

"But at the same time, the third last at Ascot is a long way from the winning line so the way Willow's Saviour won the race you'd be hard pushed to say he would have won it. But I was feeling pretty confident.

"He seems in good form, we know he will handle the conditions and we'd like to think we go there with every chance. David's got a couple of good runners in Dell' Arca and hopefully Swing Bowler as well and they both seem fit and well, so just fingers crossed it's going to be on."
Report gamerawins February 5, 2014 5:52 PM GMT
Re: Far West.

Nicholls said in early January in his Betfair column that Far West was his main horse for the Betfair & that Irving might also run. Then last week the Axom website said that Irving runs @ Newbury & FW was going for the Imperial Cup. Then Nicholls comes out this week & says FW was going to go to Fontwell for the National Spirit (which is a Grade 2 and just before the Imperial Cup so defo wouldn't of been a prep & is just not the type of route you take for IC) but will now likely end up in the Betfair.

Talk about confusing. Sounds like it's all being made up as it goes along. I know plans change quickly in racing but Irving was already pulled out of the Tolworth due to Heavy ground and with the wettest January in 100 years and most of the area around Newbury hit by floods, it was always going to be heavy. That's if it even goes ahead.

I dunno. I think FW was always going to be the one for this. It's worth noting that he sent him to the Elite Hurdle @ Wincanton to take on Melodic Rendezvous. Nicholls always sends his best 2m hurdler to that race every year. Zarkander & Celestial Halo have won it in recent years having ran in the Champion the previous year and his only other 160 + rated 2 mile hurdler, besides the two I just mentioned, was Rigmarole and he also ran in it a few times. That he sent FW there off just 146 tells a tale. Petit Zig won the Grade 1 in France the day before so he couldn't of run, but my guess is that FW was always considered his top hurdler for this season. In the Betfair column in early Jan where he said he goes for this, he also said he was found to have stomach ulcers after disappointing when well fancied @ Haydock. Apparently several horses in the yard were diagnosed with ulcers and treated & the only 2 of those to run since were Virak & Lac Fontana & both have hacked up.

He was staying on like a lion in the Triumph last year with several of these well behind including Rolling Star who he now gets a 4 pound pull with. I mean, he has only disappointed once with a good excuse whereas Rolling Star has disappointed a few times now and is about a third of the price? He beat Sametegal by over 2 lengths in the Triumph & that one is now rated 150 having being touched off in the Greatwood off 144, that Greatwood form with Sametegal gives FW a 6 pound pull with Dell Arca and 2 lengths in hand but again DA is a third of the price? Not to mention the fact that DA would of been fit as a flea whereas Sametegal was thought to need the run, 4th in the Triumph and 7 lengths behind him was Diakali who has gone on to hammer Petit Zig in a Grade 1 in France, 5th was VDR who Irish Saint was all out to beat last year, VDR was also previously hammered by FW. VDR then went on to be 2nd in the Grade 1 @ Aintree. Chris Pea Green & Kashmir Peak also well behind in the Triumph.

Moral of the story: FW's mark of 146 is likely extremely lenient and with conditions to suit he is a ridiculous price @ 25/1.

Not that any of it matters as you wouldn't get 20 pence on with those bookies. Take a look at the book Ladbrookes have! A 25 runner handicap on ground that will be barely raceable (if it even goes ahead) and they have 5 horses at 7/1 or shorter! One 5th of the field ! Now that's what you call maths gone wrong. Do they think it's a BAGS race or something they are pricing up? They are basically trying to tell punters that 5+5 = 26.9 or something ridiculous like that. Bunch of crooks. They are sucking every penny out of racing.
Report penzance February 5, 2014 6:09 PM GMT
can't see Far West overturnig the form
with Melodic Rendezvous,myself,beat
him comfortably @Wincanton.He's also
won since,whereas Far West was well
turned over next race.
  GL
Report gamerawins February 5, 2014 6:17 PM GMT
@ Penzance: Stomach ulcers reason for subsequent poor run. Plus @ Wincanton he just wasn't ready. Nicholls highlighted in his stable tour just a few weeks before how he was very big and would take a lot of getting fit. No way was he as fit a MR.

Plus he will have a 7 pound pull if H Derham rides which now looks likely as Jacob seems to be on Deep Trouble. He will be in receipt of 11 pounds from him and in this ground that's a huge pull.

Not to mention that top weights never win this. Rooster Booster couldn't do it on good ground and he won the previous Champion Hurdle by half the track. If MR can do it on heavy he should be fav for the Champion. Just because he is officially a few pounds well in doesn't mean he is well in in the context of this race.

Best of luck.
Report The judge69 February 5, 2014 6:20 PM GMT
Gamerawins

You are spot on with this quote and the most likely outcome is that FAR WEST will run in this race and WILL run very well. IRVING owned by the same people is very doubtful and the risk is well worth taking ew on FAR WEST at 25/1. I backed yesterday with hills

 
Moral of the story: FW's mark of 146 is likely extremely lenient and with conditions to suit he is a ridiculous price @ 25/1.
Report sintonian February 5, 2014 6:22 PM GMT
good points of view,Gamerawins.
Report penzance February 5, 2014 6:25 PM GMT
hopefully this weather will let up
a bit.Should be a good one if going
ahead.
Report gamerawins February 5, 2014 6:27 PM GMT
If Derham rides (looks likely) then FW will be running off 141.

*nodding*
Report TINnotaTON February 5, 2014 6:29 PM GMT
be very surprised if this goes ahead, heavy now and the forcast is horrendous, hope im wrong, but doubt it.
Report sintonian February 5, 2014 7:05 PM GMT
yep,just seen the forecast myself. Rain pretty much all day tomorrow. No idea why the CoC is so optimistic. ''Pretty confident'' he said.  LaughLaugh
Report TINnotaTON February 5, 2014 7:25 PM GMT
he must be related to kirkland tellwright....
Report ReaseHeath February 5, 2014 7:43 PM GMT
it's a compelling argument Gamerawins - would just point out that Scott stated MR would come on for the race before the Elite and said the same thing before he went to Haydock and is now saying he's as well as he's ever had him.

He drifted like the proverbial barge all day at Wincanton and connections seemed genuinely surprised at the result.

Having said that, there is still a discrepancy in the prices with MR best price 16/1 vs Far West 25/1.

We'll know whether both, one or neither run in the morning. I'm sure the race will be rescheduled if not run on Saturday - whether they reschedule the whole card might be up for debate in which case you might be looking at Ascot the following weekend.Probably getting a head of myself there.
Report CVByrne February 5, 2014 8:23 PM GMT
Has the decision been made to run Far West and not Irving?? I can't find any info on it.

Far West was my orignal pick for this and I'd be keen to take the 20/1 if he's an intended runner
Report gamerawins February 5, 2014 8:31 PM GMT
@ ReaseHeath: I agree to a certain extent.

It is true that neither would of been fit and generally speaking it's a fair rule of thumb that horses from smaller yards are less fit early in a season than those from bigger yards. But FW is just overall open to a lot more improvement. In his pre season stable tour, he was the only horse PFN specifically mentioned how much he had matured physically over the summer. And who knows, maybe he was affected by the ulcers @ Wincanton also. I mean, it was only two weeks beforehand. It's not the sort of thing that pops up overnight, ulcers happen over time. For ulcers to develop there would need to have been significant acid build up for a lot longer than 2 weeks. Who knows how the horse was feeling @ Wincanton.

All this is kind of speculation & opinions though. The main thing between these two is the fact that top weights never win it and in Heavy going he will need to some horse to do it and even at that there will need to be nothing else lurking thats v well treated.
Report gamerawins February 5, 2014 8:34 PM GMT
@ CV: Nothing confirmed yet AFAIK but going on all known info that has so far been made public it would seem extremely likely that Irving won't run.
Report penzance February 5, 2014 8:34 PM GMT
like both Dell Arca and Deep Trouble
in this.Think DT would be a bit shorter
if trained by a bigger name.
   GL ALL
Report bazzar February 5, 2014 8:40 PM GMT
I seem to remember PERSIAN WAR winning with 12st and I backed MAJOR ROSE who
finished second carrying 11st 12lbs, beaten 1/2 length.
Report penzance February 5, 2014 8:46 PM GMT
I think Copeland carried a big weight
when he won it for Pipe.
Might be wrong.
Report ChelseaScott February 5, 2014 8:46 PM GMT
Irving confirmed out, Far West runs instead
Report sintonian February 5, 2014 8:47 PM GMT
Looks like PFN put you away CV! He's just tweeted that FW will now run. Taken 20/1 with Korral as a saver only.
Report gamerawins February 5, 2014 8:47 PM GMT
Yes, Persian War did it 45 years ago and then went on to win 3 Champion Hurdles.

Best of luck to MR. If he is that good he can have it. I'll tip my hat!
Report BJG February 5, 2014 8:49 PM GMT
Due to Heavy ground Irving is a non runner Saturday. Far West will run instead.
Report mary hinge February 5, 2014 9:10 PM GMT
Far West choo choo now!!
Report CVByrne February 5, 2014 9:13 PM GMT
Far West added to Alaivan. That's me lot. Happy
Report ReaseHeath February 5, 2014 9:14 PM GMT
Nicholls having an interesting week - on Monday, the last thing he wanted was to give Al Ferof a hard race in testing ground before the Gold Cup, by Tuesday Alf was 'almost certain' to run in the Denman Chase.

It's only Wednesday...

In fairness, he probably can't win - could be just a case of trying to be open and honest and the goal posts move, you can see why some of 'em keep their own counsel.
Report ReaseHeath February 5, 2014 9:23 PM GMT
Jacob has n't ridden Far West either so probably won't be asked to get off Deep Trouble, presume Schofield will ride if Melodic Rendezvous does run and possibly STD if MR does.

Or perhaps Schofield might have to choose. Shocked
Report ReaseHeath February 5, 2014 9:24 PM GMT
Jacob has n't ridden Far West either so probably won't be asked to get off Deep Trouble, presume Schofield will ride if Melodic Rendezvous does not run and possibly STD if MR does.

Or perhaps Schofield might have to choose. Shocked
Report gamerawins February 5, 2014 9:30 PM GMT
Yeah, would imagine that if MR doesn't run that Schofield will ride FW.

I would like to see Derham on him though. Love the way he rode SDR @ Kempton. Horses travel for that boy.
Report BarryM February 6, 2014 1:29 AM GMT
Melodic seems very doubtful Penzane, trainer saying he doesn't want to leave his Cheltenham chance behind by giving him a hard race here. I'd certainly want him to take his chance if he was mine though.
Report shockster February 6, 2014 8:57 AM GMT
Newbury racecourse (@RacesNewbury) tweeted: "Dry since 6pm yesterday, ground remains heavy."
Report sintonian February 6, 2014 10:09 AM GMT
Not buying the ground excuse for Al Fefor. Ploughed through Heavy ground in the PP.
Report alleged22 February 6, 2014 10:16 AM GMT
I think sint its the fact that they don,t want a hard race on heavy going 5 weeks before the main event,

im glad you mention the PP race as this just empathises just how well the horse can run when fresh
Report BJG February 6, 2014 11:05 AM GMT
Melodic not declared
Report shockster February 6, 2014 11:08 AM GMT
Bad decision IMO BJG, but will move on and thankfully not backed Ante Post.  Just hope the meetings on.
Report BJG February 6, 2014 11:17 AM GMT
1     165-10    Rolling Star49      5    11-12    Nicky Henderson61    Barry Geraghty     150    128    155
2     112-24    Far West77      5    11-8    Paul Nicholls38    Harry Derham5     146    148    155
3     13-F01    Irish Saint21 5xt      5    11-7    Paul Nicholls38    Noel Fehily     145    137    159
4     6-3211    Smashing44      5    11-5    W P Mullins48         143    116    157
5     63011U    Act Of Kalanisi21 tb      8    11-5    Dr Richard Newland33    Christopher Ward5     143    134    152
6     67-234    Chris Pea Green49      5    11-4    Gary Moore29    Joshua Moore3     142    136    152
7     231/59    Gibb River70      8    11-4    Nicky Henderson61    A P McCoy     142    130    151
8     212212    Deep Trouble28 h      7    11-2    Ben Case50    Daryl Jacob     140    127    153
9     32114/    Montbazon697      7    11-2    Alan King38    Robert Thornton     140    —    —
10     23257-    Vasco Du Ronceray310 h      5    11-1    Nicky Henderson61    David Bass     139    135    153
11     63U-01    Vendor70      6    11-0    Alan King38    Jack Doyle     138    121    152
12     51P-P8    First Avenue28      9    10-13    Laura Mongan50    Paddy Bradley7     137    143    155
13     1/130-    Swing Bowler333      7    10-12    David Pipe60    Conor O'Farrell     136    103    155
14     2121U    Dell´ Arca49      5    10-12    David Pipe60    Tom Scudamore     136    135    150
15     06133    Jumps Road21      7    10-11    Colin Tizzard46    Brendan Powell     135    113    159
16     1/20-1    Cheltenian39      8    10-10    Philip Hobbs36    Richard Johnson     134    128    147
17     424133    Splash Of Ginge28      6    10-10    Nigel Twiston-Davies33    Ryan Hatch7     134    138    153
18    115/0F    Recession Proof49      8    10-10    John Quinn80    Jake Greenall3     134    66    141
19     55/802    Alaivan23      8    10-6    Jonjo O´Neill58    Maurice Linehan5     130    139    157
20     115-P2    Totalize14 h      5    10-5    Brian Ellison40    Aidan Coleman     129    137    157
21     12-323    Prompter58      7    10-3    Jonjo O´Neill58         127    134    152
22     16-86    Poet23      9    10-0    Clive Cox    James Banks5     124    112    144
Report sintonian February 6, 2014 11:25 AM GMT
It will only be a hard race of the opposition are able to serve it up to him imo, Alleged.
Report sintonian February 6, 2014 11:26 AM GMT
Robert Thornton has chose Montbazon? Or was it to do with owners. Jack Doyle on Vendor.
Report sintonian February 6, 2014 11:29 AM GMT
Oh hang on. Jack Doyle rode Vendor to win last time out so makes sense.
Report alleged22 February 6, 2014 11:39 AM GMT
its not the opposition im worried about sint but the running of the horse on bottomless ground 5 weeks before judgement day
Report ReaseHeath February 6, 2014 12:31 PM GMT
you have your wish gamerawins,

Derham declared to ride Far West.
Report sintonian February 6, 2014 12:58 PM GMT
Would still be very surprised if meeting goes ahead tbh. Hope im wrong.
Report Graeme83 February 6, 2014 2:00 PM GMT
Cheltenian & Alaivan.
Report Graeme83 February 6, 2014 3:12 PM GMT
Should add i thought 'smashing' would have been mentioned  more on here. He has experience, and a mark he ought to be able to cope with. Anyway, enough input from me. Enjoy the race if its on.
Report gamerawins February 6, 2014 4:25 PM GMT
What I want to know is:

If the meeting is abandoned & the race re-scheduled are declarations as is or is the race re-opened?
Report Ibrahima Sonko February 6, 2014 4:51 PM GMT
Shame MR doesnt run as he could well had won the race without having a hard race given the conditions.

AP money done on MR but i still have Far West & Vasco Du Ronceray running for me.
Report ReaseHeath February 6, 2014 4:59 PM GMT
looking at the radar on the BBC Weather site (sad, I know!), it actually looks like Newbury will miss most of the rain tonight.
Report CVByrne February 6, 2014 6:15 PM GMT
I'm always baffled by the over negativity surround meetings being on. Always been more "won't be on" comments about meetings that end up being on than ones that are abandoned.

I fail to see how worrying about it being on or not effects analysing the races tbh!! If it's on it's very testing, if it's off you get your stakes back. Why does any other outcome matter in relation to betting?

Far West, Alaivan both e/w and smaller bets Splash of Ginge & Chris Pea Green (cliff horse)
Report gamerawins February 6, 2014 6:52 PM GMT
@CV: With regard to the Irving & Far West situation it could be very significant, which is why I asked the question above. (though I know you weren't specifically replying to me, more in general)

If people are on FW ante-post and it's abandoned and the re-arranged fixture is on say gd/sft and if declarations are re-opened then FW might be pulled out again and Irving might run. In which case FW AP backers have done their money.

So, does anyone know if declarations re open in the event of the meeting being abandoned & re fixed for another date?
Report sintonian February 6, 2014 7:00 PM GMT
Because CV if you have ante-post prices that are now almost half the odds it stands to reason, as a punter, you'd like the meeting to go ahead. In any case, fears are justified in this instance, the weather and flooding in England at the moment is apalling.
Report ReaseHeath February 6, 2014 7:03 PM GMT
when the 2011 renewal was re-scheduled at Newbury the following Friday in 2011, the entries reverted to the five day confirmation stage - this meant that antepost bets stood.

I think I read somewhere that if a race is re-scheduled at a different venue (as opposed to the same venue in the case above), the entries are re-opened because the race conditions have changed.

100% certain on the first sentence above but not on the second one, in any event the answer will depend on when and where it's rescheduled.
Report ReaseHeath February 6, 2014 7:08 PM GMT
From ATR site:

Excellent drainage is helping the course at Newbury deal with the wet weather as the valuable Betfair Hurdle meeting approaches on Saturday.

While the ground is described as heavy after rain on Thursday, a forecast for a dry Friday is timely before showers return.

"We've had rain and are due for a bit more, but not too much more," said clerk of the course Richard Osgood.

"At the moment we've got no problems, especially if we get a nice dry day (on Friday) which they are talking about - with this place when you get a day's drying it can do wonders.

"We've got gravel underneath us and it seems to go straight through it.

"Then we are forecast showers on Saturday, but not heavy ones we are being told at the moment unless it changes again."


He's very bullish, he'll be calling it Good to Firm by Saturday morning at this rate. Grin
Report gamerawins February 6, 2014 7:11 PM GMT
Cheers.

Yeah, I would guess the money is done if it rescheduled and a horse doesn't run.

Remember those Lingfield & Kempton AW meets abandoned about a month ago due to fog? Some races were rescheduled (for same venue) and the races were re-opened.

Oh well.

I think it will go ahead. Fresh ground and all that, plus the wind. And this is such a big day I think if they need to cancel earlier races for the big two to go ahead then I think they will do so.

Best of luck.
Report CVByrne February 6, 2014 7:40 PM GMT
Very good point sint, antepost prices being lost. Totally slipped my mind that one. Just seemed to be loads of won't be on etc.. every season for a lot of meetings that are on.

Think it's because it's such a definitive statement, maybe if it was "it's in danger of being abandoned" or "it may not be on" it wouldn't catch my. Ah I'm just ramgling to myself really Laugh

Think Newbury are very confident of it being on due to dry windy Friday.
Report unclepuncle February 7, 2014 10:24 AM GMT
Backed Vendor a couple of weeks back and have saved on Recession Proof and Alavain after final decs.

Good luck - assuming it beats the weather.
Report sintonian February 7, 2014 10:40 AM GMT
Inspection tomorrow.
Report sintonian February 7, 2014 12:04 PM GMT
Looking ahead to the big one, Alan said:"This race has long been Vendor’s target. He won over two and a half at the Hennessy meeting, so it is a drop back in trip, but I do not think that will be a problem for him and a strong run race on testing ground could play to his strengths.

"Montbazon worked very well last week with First Mohican, so the latter's victory at Doncaster is a timely boost. It was encouraging that we were able to get him back on the grass this week and he did another serious piece of work. However, he has been off the track for 697 days, and it is a very difficult race to start him back, though I have to get him out somewhere.
Report IDKW February 7, 2014 1:27 PM GMT
Surely DELL 'ARCA is the one here.
Won the Greatwood a bit more comfortably than the 1/2L winning margin suggests, and was still travelling very comfortably when brought down 3 out in the Ladbroke.

Should and will be FAV IMO, and will be very disappointed should he not go close.
Report dunlaying February 7, 2014 3:27 PM GMT
I have backed Alaivan for buttons at big odds. He is no value at 12/1 unless he shows his old County Hurdle form.
But for those who like a flutter at big odds maybe you should try Poet.He is likely to be in the van ,loves the ground,has no weight and it is just possible that he has been hiding his light under a bushel.He has some fancy flat form .
I have had a small bet on him.
Report BlueBoy February 7, 2014 4:30 PM GMT
Fascinating posts as always on this bit of the Forum. Just came on to post up that i have been backing Poet, fwiw, since dec's were made,and note dunlaying also fancies it. Having my biggest bet of the jump season so far on it, for the reasons eloquently described above.

What can go wrong?

Happy Punting

BB
Report Millerracing67 February 7, 2014 4:33 PM GMT
Plenty of the wet stuff due overnight Sad
Will be very surprised if the meetings on imo Sad
Report gamerawins February 7, 2014 4:55 PM GMT
I'm worried about the form of the Nicholls horses.

11 of the last 13 favorites that the yard has sent out have been beaten and of the two that won, one of them was a 1/3 shot.

He was in blinding form a month a ago but looking less so now.

I still think FW is the one. If he is right he will plough through that ground, has one of the highest knee actions I've ever seen!

If you want one though that will definitely run it's race and definitely go close then go for Cheltenian. Will be on the premises 100%.
Report ReaseHeath February 7, 2014 5:28 PM GMT
Yep, I've just noticed the form of the Nicholls horses - but form figures for Hobbs last 9 runners prior to today is FF555PP44!

Time to get off the pot, I will stick with Recession Proof (ew) and am also tempted by a small ew interest on First Avenue.

If you just use the weights and measures, First Avenue makes little appeal as he is 7 lbs higher than when he won the Imperial Cup and also has a conditional riding who can only claim 7lbs as opposed to the 10lb Adams claimed when he won at Sandown.

But....

he absolutely hosed up at Sandown in similar conditions,admittedly not done much since but the P at the Festival 6 days after his massive effort at Sandown is understandable, the P at Stratford in September could have been ground related and he just tootled around at the back at Kempton the other day.

He actually improved his flat rating by a couple of lbs during the summer and the only good race he has run since the Imperial Cup was when running into a place at 40/1 in the Queen Alexandra Stakes at Royal Ascot so he clearly relishes big field handicaps with a premium on stamina. His stable is in very decent form too.

Hardly a conclusive case but he's 50/1! Just feel he is likely to outrun those odds.

Good luck,all!
Report sintonian February 7, 2014 5:31 PM GMT
sticking with Vendor and small stakes on FW. Oddly I am put off FW by the fact it will be PFN's third horse to return from ulcer treatment. Can all 3 really win off the back of that? Remarkable if so.
Report gamerawins February 7, 2014 5:42 PM GMT
Yeah, tbh I've been worried about Nicholls horses since Argento weekend. Several ran poor that day whereas the previous few weekends most of his were running blinders, the yard was thriving on mass. But with the exceptions of Saphir Du Rheu & Lac Fontana (and perhaps Mr Mole) no horse from that yard has really ran a blinder or looked like it was thriving since Argento weekend.

Look, things change quickly. They can't all win all the time. Everything is probably fine but I was a bit surprised on Argento weekend and nothing since has changed that view.

As for Hobbs: I would be less worried. The whole yard has been thriving for several months. Captain Chris, Planet of Sound, Wishful Thinking, the Beecher winner (can't think of name) all great winners. It's when you see old timers like that who looked on the way down, come out and all win that's when you know a yard is really really thriving. Not to mention all the other horses that are progressing also. True the last few runners were poor but it's too small a sample to suggest the form is gone. The Nicholls sample is probably too small also, but it is longer since several of his have been running blinders.
Report SOULDANCER February 7, 2014 6:20 PM GMT
Recession Proof, 25-1 1st 4, 22-1 1st 5. E.w. for me, travelling well enough when fell 3 out in Ladbroke. Claimer takes 3lb off now, likes the soft and could improve, had only 7 hurdle runs.
Report gamerawins February 7, 2014 7:14 PM GMT
I don't get how people can fancy Recession Proof tbh.

Can't see how an 8 year old who won as a 2 year old can still be open to improvement after over 2 years off the track. He hasn't shown any form whatsoever in almost 3 years and has ran 4 times since the summer, weakening badly every time despite the yard being in good form for all those runs. It is was much too far from home the last day to suggest he had any chance of finishing close up.

Also very hard to win a race like this twice. Sure Geos did but he was very classy and a previous Grade 1 winner as well as 4th in a previous Champion Hurdle. Unlike Recession Proof he also had recent form finishing 2nd in the Fighting Fifth the time before.

I remember it well. I had him backed at 20/1. Backed him 3 times in the weeks before expecting him to be backed into fav, but no one came for him. Got up on the line to beat Rooster Booster. I watched it in a Paddy Power shop with about 100 other people and they were all on the Rooster who was fav and had won the previous Champion Hurdle. Everyone had him backed and roared him home after the last, then Geos came from the clouds and nabbed him. The whole place groaned and gushed into silence. I never said a word. Walked out with the biggest smile you never seen :)
Report mac99 February 7, 2014 10:55 PM GMT
RP won   this three years ago and then went on to  run a good fifth in the Supreme  , if near that form he is placed for sure, but Dell arca at current odds maybe the one to be on  , the Pipe Stable usually go for it  in these big Handicaps , even on testing ground , very good ew shout at the price imo
Report duffy February 8, 2014 3:20 AM GMT
Ill be having a little bit on vasco at big odds e/w, there wasn't much between him and irish saint last year...don't know what the hold up has been though..probably find out tomorrow afternoon Grin
Report Ibrahima Sonko February 8, 2014 8:35 AM GMT
Good man duffy.

I am going to look stupid later but i make this a 4 horse race:

Far West
Irish Saint
Vasco Du Ronceray
Dell ' Arca

all the rest are not good enough on what they have shown so far.
Report HaylingBilly February 8, 2014 10:20 AM GMT
Montbazon for me. 700 days off the track. OR down to 140. Stable jockey on in preference to Vendor.  Been Vendor target all season. I smell a Kingo plot………………or I just don't have a clue so looking for a wild card…….BlushBlushBlush
Report dunlaying February 8, 2014 12:15 PM GMT
There is precious little value left now but Prompter @ 100/1 with Stan James and Young Vic is too big.
The horse has never been out of the first four over jumps and although it is hard to see him winning, a place is not out of the question.
Report Millerracing67 February 8, 2014 1:01 PM GMT
Cheltenian & Far West for small ££ for me in a tough race in bad ground Plain
Gd luck all Cool
Report ReaseHeath February 8, 2014 1:39 PM GMT
First Avenue non runner so I have gone with Cheltenian 10/1 ew and Recession Proof 28/1 ew.

A bit of a lottery in the conditions, Cheltenian the potentially the least exposed horse in the race with the possible exception of Montbazon who has been off an awful long time.

With regard to Recession Proof, he might not need to improve but rather return to his 2011 level when he won this off the same mark.

The only one of his runs since his return from injury which was discouraging for me was his effort in the Cesarewitch but that was a strange race where the winner got left 15 lengths at the start so perhaps they went too fast. The handicap hurdle he ran in at Cheltenham was over a trip in excess of 3 miles and he was n't given a hard race.

It's true that at Ascot it was too early to know whether he'd play a hand in the finish and you're entitled to be sceptical given the way the first two pulled clear - on the other hand he was still going OK and there were plenty in behind already struggling.

Anyway, today's the day we find out.

Good luck!
Report sintonian February 8, 2014 3:44 PM GMT
SPlash of ginge .. someone put that up on here at 100/1? Cant see who. Nice one.
Report penzance February 8, 2014 3:55 PM GMT
whoever
wd
GL
Report Facts February 8, 2014 5:15 PM GMT
CVByrne     06 Feb 14 18:15


Far West, Alaivan both e/w and smaller bets Splash of Ginge & Chris Pea Green (cliff horse)



Well done CV !
Report Ibrahima Sonko February 8, 2014 7:34 PM GMT
wd ginge backers !

My brother backed it as he idolises NTD and has a ginger daughter, plus he had the forecast, should have had the tricast too.

My 4, one nr 3 of them were in the top 5 jumping the last.

Made my day when Far West got up, i was sat 2 seats away from the owners today. Happy scenes.
Report dunlaying February 8, 2014 8:49 PM GMT
Very well done for finding that one.
Report CVByrne February 9, 2014 12:43 AM GMT
Cheers all, just seems like NTD is getting a wee bit sly with his horses. He's got me two this season
Report stevo1 February 9, 2014 1:41 AM GMT
He obviously fancied it as was at Warwick,like stable jockey who has ridden it last 4 times lol. Well done Cv Festival not too far off now.
Report Tucho February 9, 2014 4:14 AM GMT
Carl Llewellyn, assistant to Twiston-Davies, said: "We did think he had a better chance than his price. He was six lengths behind Irving at Ascot and that was favourite and he would have been better off at the weights so that gave him some hope. He went off in front until Act Of Kalanisi took it off him but he does stay well."

---

Twiston-Davies was at Warwick with his son Sam instead of Newbury.

"I was thinking of having a go at a bit of the 40-1, but it was a competitive event and you can't ever be too hopeful," he told Racing UK.

"Sam wanted to come here because he didn't think he could win and thought he would have better chances, so it's terrible for him, but he's got a great bunch of owners and he won't be lacking for support.


Haha, classic NTD pretending he didn't back it. Laugh
Report ReaseHeath February 9, 2014 11:10 AM GMT
yes, well done CV - nice form frank for Irving and Deputy Dan.
Report Millerracing67 February 9, 2014 3:33 PM GMT
Nice pick on winner who had to be given an ew chance pre-race, well done.
Did pay to be handy yest on that ground.
Great to see Far West get up from what looked a bad fall Happy
Will be looking out for Cheltenian on hopefully better ground at Chelts come March.
County Hdle would be my hope for him, a gd hcap to be won with him on gd/ish ground.
Report CVByrne February 10, 2014 6:58 PM GMT
Far West go Imperial Cup then Martin Pipe with Derham keeping ride for both?
Report shockster February 10, 2014 7:07 PM GMT
Will be some horse if he pulls it off.  That was a really nasty fall in the Betfair and was glad to see him get up.  The ability is there though.
Report sintonian February 12, 2014 8:53 AM GMT
Vendor for the Coral cup imo. Was out the back all the way and impossible to make ground on that going. He stays further and trainer has a good record in the race.
Report Ibrahima Sonko March 9, 2014 5:49 PM GMT
I just read that SOG ran the race in over 4 secs faster than MTOY did.
Report sintonian March 11, 2014 8:38 PM GMT
As stated back in Feb .. hope to get some money back on Vendor tomorrow.
Report Ibrahima Sonko March 11, 2014 9:12 PM GMT
Feel sorry for you sint and the new one, you picked the best horse and was very unlucky.


Still cant have Vendor mind, good luck.
Report sintonian March 11, 2014 9:30 PM GMT
Could have been a lot worse Ibra. In the end I am just glad he got 3rd as I have him in LOADS of eachway acca's for horses for this coming flat season.


Yep, not biggest fan of trainer at the festival but there could be more to come off 138 for Vendor and I suspect i'll back him at Aintree, too!
Report Ibrahima Sonko March 11, 2014 9:57 PM GMT
Great to hear you got some rewards.
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