Horse Antepost
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Ballycasey 7/4
Morning Assembly 3/1
Don Cossack 7/2
Bright New Dawn 9/2
Black Thunder 7/1
Fox Rock 12/1
Sizing Rio 14/1
16/1 Bar
Firstly, I don't think Don Cossack will run. Gordon Elliot has stated he will have a break over Christmas and Gigginstown have Bright New Dawn in the race.
I don't think Black Thunder will run either, he has had 3 runs already this season and won them all, and is also entered for the Feltham but so is stablemate Just A Par.
Initial thoughts are that Ballycasey is too short a price at 7/4, especially given the fact he has 7 lengths to make up with Morning Assembly from their hurdles run at the Punchestown festival, and that MA has looked very good on both his chase starts so far including when outbattling Don Cossack in a Grade 2, who went on to frank the form at Grade 1 level next time. On the form book, he should be favourite. However, it was an impressive debut over fences from Ballycasey, managing to win over 17f when he really wants further, and he won it rather well. The horse in 3rd that day, Ned Buntline has come out and won since.
Bright New Dawn is another promising chaser with a hurdles rating off 144. He made all on debut and looked good doing so.
Fox Rock has not done much wrong. Finished 2nd to Road To Riches on his debut and then won next time out. He possibly represents the best eachway value at 12/1 given his fair form and the fact he has two chase runs. Personally I don't like backing novices in Grade 1 races with just one chase start, I see it as a negative for Ballycasey and Bright New Dawn.
I wouldn't be surprised if MA & Ballycasey are closer to joint favourites on the day, there is no way there should be that much between them in the prices, but I guess it's about who trains them and reputation. Ballycasey is current favourite for the RSA with MA being a 16/1 chance.
I should probably back MA at 3/1 - 11/4 with an eachway on Fox Rock but it's possible Ballycasey & BND could still win due to their obvious class so i'll wait until the day, if betting at all.
Morning Assembly 3/1
Don Cossack 7/2
Bright New Dawn 9/2
Black Thunder 7/1
Fox Rock 12/1
Sizing Rio 14/1
16/1 Bar
Firstly, I don't think Don Cossack will run. Gordon Elliot has stated he will have a break over Christmas and Gigginstown have Bright New Dawn in the race.
I don't think Black Thunder will run either, he has had 3 runs already this season and won them all, and is also entered for the Feltham but so is stablemate Just A Par.
Initial thoughts are that Ballycasey is too short a price at 7/4, especially given the fact he has 7 lengths to make up with Morning Assembly from their hurdles run at the Punchestown festival, and that MA has looked very good on both his chase starts so far including when outbattling Don Cossack in a Grade 2, who went on to frank the form at Grade 1 level next time. On the form book, he should be favourite. However, it was an impressive debut over fences from Ballycasey, managing to win over 17f when he really wants further, and he won it rather well. The horse in 3rd that day, Ned Buntline has come out and won since.
Bright New Dawn is another promising chaser with a hurdles rating off 144. He made all on debut and looked good doing so.
Fox Rock has not done much wrong. Finished 2nd to Road To Riches on his debut and then won next time out. He possibly represents the best eachway value at 12/1 given his fair form and the fact he has two chase runs. Personally I don't like backing novices in Grade 1 races with just one chase start, I see it as a negative for Ballycasey and Bright New Dawn.
I wouldn't be surprised if MA & Ballycasey are closer to joint favourites on the day, there is no way there should be that much between them in the prices, but I guess it's about who trains them and reputation. Ballycasey is current favourite for the RSA with MA being a 16/1 chance.
I should probably back MA at 3/1 - 11/4 with an eachway on Fox Rock but it's possible Ballycasey & BND could still win due to their obvious class so i'll wait until the day, if betting at all.
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I thought 7/4 was a fair price when I took it and expect him to be shorter on the day
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A good price based on what alleged?
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imo he has put up one of the best novice chase runs so far this year over an inadequate trip, I didn't get caught up in the hype with this horse last year
but I have the buzz this year and he is my festival banker. I thought 7/4 was very generous. max play for me |
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Ok fair enough. He is promising, but I think he price is based mostly on that potential rather than anything he has achieved over fences so far. I mean, how can it be based on anything else? MA has Graded chase form and holds him on hurdles form too. That said, i'm not silly enough to think he cannot improve a good bit for his debut run and the step up in trip, I just think he should be closer to 5/2 really.
I should also mention Carlingford Lough is in the race and can be backed at 10/1. |
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we all have our methods sometimes they work sometimes they don,t,, so I took a stance on this one early not as early as some with the 25,s but I have 16,s 14,s and im still backing it at 12,s, those odds will look very generous should he win well, much better than the 4,s or 5,s he will be post race. if he loses not all is lost as he may drift and I can mop up some better prices as he will be better on better ground, but feel he has that quality that better animals have in that they can act on all ground, cream always rises to the top.
can feel the egg on face moment coming on the 29th  |
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Morning Assembly beat Ballycasey fair and square over hurdles.
Don't see why he shouldn't confirm placings as jumped perfectly well over fences so far. Only drawback is that Ruby not riding this time |
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The market has corrected itself now. MA is 7/4 fav with Ballycasey now 2/1. I should probably have taken some of the widely available 11/4, and 3/1 was available too but with B0yles.
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im worried sint with regards this race, but still confident regards the rsa
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Does he likes Soft ground, alleged?
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he would prefer better ground, but its irish winter ground cant expect anything other than soft at this time of year.
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Ballycasey has been taken out mate. Must be the ground.
Silly of me but should have taken the 11/4 Morning Assembly as I was sure the odds were wrong. 5/4 now. Hey ho! |