Tingle Creek

He is very doubtful

A bad Trachea wash and an unlikely runner

where would he go next?

victor chandler in jan

tar v much

THE Tingle Creek Chase is in danger of losing its headline act after trainer Nicky Henderson sensationally revealed Sprinter Sacre is not certain to run on Saturday due to an unsatisfactory tracheal wash.

The superstar chaser, who is unbeaten over fences and was among 11 entries for the BetVictor-backed Grade 1 contest unveiled on Monday, will be tested again on Thursday morning before the final declarations are made.

Henderson said: "We routinely give the horses a tracheal wash every Monday morning and though Sprinter Sacre's looked normal the figures from the laboratory told us otherwise.

"If the figures are the same when we test him again on Thursday then he won't run.

"At this stage I’m certainly not ruling him out, I’m just issuing a warning. I have known horses that appear wrong on Monday and be perfectly alright on Thursday. A fortnight ago My Tent Or Yours wasn't too clever.

"Unfortunately it's something you can't treat - it's an absolute nightmare and I wanted to let everyone know as soon as possible. We only got the test results back at four o'clock this afternoon.

"It's very disappointing but you cannot take chances especially with a horse like him, but don't rule him out yet."   

More to follow . . .

Could be carnage on here.lowest laid looks about 1.17/1.18 !!

I always thought scoping a horse was to find out whether they had a cold or not too, so if SS has a cold, as he scoped dirty on Monday and he was clean last week cos hendo says they routinely scope every horse every monday morning, he aint going to be clean Thursday all of a sudden is he

Sprinter is probably a runner imo, been watching the market all day today, every time money appears at 2, it gets snapped up down to as far as 1.8 at one stage, hendo after siome wages maybe Say he might not run, get odds against a 1/6 poke, xmas money, bit like the Chatterbox/MTOY race last season
Never known a stable with stars like it, theres a few stables with stars that runs in the big races that could be short prices and just dont do that, hendo seems to have been doing it at least last few years, some have run, not many haven't!

The saddest thing about it is betfair will obviously suspend this market as soon as it looks like theres an announcement to be made but the saddest truth is there will always be people out there that no, we will probably no for sure Weds night into Thursday morning just by watching the market.

SS is 1.93 on here, you could back him at that price and then save on Sire De Grugy at 4/1 incase he does not make, as he is the next most likely winner and a 6/4 chance if SS is out.

I've took a chance that he runs, a dirty scope could just be a minor cold, a bit of bacteria in his mucus, could easily have cleared up by now. Got 6/4 after commission about a 1/6 shot!

He's out Marko.

Sire De Grugy to win?

out!

reported by SSN.

Will they really wait until Victor Chandler in Jan with risks around the weather possibly a factor at that time of year?

There is Desert Orchid Chase at Kempton on second day of King George meeting, would have thought he is eligible for that?

Just gave some money away there then, oh well I knew the risk. Fair play to hendo for letting everyone know asap. Actually makes it a better race, Hes gna run Captain Conan now instead.

Interesting that they're prepared to give Captain Conan a shot at this when Kid Cassidy had the beating of Sire De Grugy at Cheltenham.

Somersby looked rejuvenated at Exeter too, my first impressions are to prefer both those to Sire De Grugy.

Crap of Betfair not to re-open the market having cancelled unmatched bets though.  Seem to remember making this criticism a few dozen times before too...

Kid Cassidy was getting 10lb from SDG at Cheltenham and he is probably a better horse around Sandown. Fascinating race now anyway.

Captain conan beat sire de grugy as a novice quite easily, sire de grugy has race fitness but I suspect just doesnt have the ability of CC and I cant have somersby, so for me hendo still wins it.

yep, I'm probably over-complicating things, Captain Conan has a chase win over Sire De Grugy though albeit on soft ground at Cheltenham.

Agreed, should be a cracker now.

billies going even money sire de grugy, are you kidding me!! CC 3/1 somersby 3/1, I'll take even money the pair against him every day thanks, CC a better horse on his own but I'll take the cowards way out and throw in somersby just in case.

I've taken 9/4 about SDG. I think he is an improved horse since meeting CC previously and he was not originally targetted for this race. I find it interesting that his last 3 runs were all over 20f and his expected debut was over 20f too in the December Gold Cup. Maybe the trainer sees him as more of a middle distance horse now? We'll see.

1     11151-    Captain Conan247      6    11-7    Nicky Henderson53    Barry Geraghty     159    136    165
2     3F42-7    His Excellency20 b      5    11-7    David Pipe54    A P McCoy     148    111    158
3     1P7P-5    Kauto Stone35 b1    7    11-7    Paul Nicholls74    Daryl Jacob     153    —    146
4     42RR-6    Mad Moose20 h1      9    11-7    Nigel Twiston-Davies40    Dave Crosse     143    114    163
5     314-54    Oiseau De Nuit20 t      11    11-7    Colin Tizzard50    Brendan Powell     154    161    165
6     411-12    Sire De Grugy20      7    11-7    Gary Moore77    Jamie Moore     169    165    177
7     34U-1    Somersby32      9    11-7    Mick Channon50    Dominic Elsworth     161    155    168
8     575F-5    Tataniano20      9    11-7    Richard Rowe40    Andrew Thornton     147    130    155
9     P5-036    Viva Colonia14    8    11-7    Brian Ellison64    Leighton Aspell     139    141    152

There is 10lb between them on ORs, Duffy.

sint, do you not think that Sire De Grugy's rating is a little questionable? I'm not overwhelmed by the form of either of the races which saw him leap from 145 to 169 - when I look at the beaten horses, I think there are question marks over whether most of them ran to their best form.

Captain Conan's Sandown form ain't too shabby either.

should be clearer, the handicap win at Chepstow is hard to knock but I think the value of the Celebration Chase win at Sandown is questionable when you look at the beaten horses.

Interesting price differentials here - Laddies 9/4 SDG with Billy Hills 5/4.

I really like SDG and thought his Chepstow performance was 170+ (which would easily be enough to win on Saturday now). He obviously jumped poorly LTO and was giving away 10 pounds to an improver. That being said, even rating Kid Cassidy generously at 155, he only put in a 160-162 performance latest. THe question is, is that good enough to win on Saturday?

I do think overall SDG has just about the best form over 2 miles but this OR of 169 seems a bit high to me. I felt that most of the runners in the chepstow contest did not run to form and at cheltenham perhaps Special Tiara went a shade quick and is that horse also overrated and is Oiseau De Nuit past it?
It could be SDG is still really a 160 horse and therefore would not have that much in hand. Though I still see him as just about the likliest winner but no t for me at the price.

yep you can question it Rease. I remember Tataniano winning the same handicap chase at Chepstow off a high mark (who was then a 4/1 chance for the Tingle Creek himself afterwards but got injured prior), so I don't think there is usually much strength in depth to that race. However I do think if he jumps better than last time out he'll beat these. He stumbled at the 4th and had a mistake at the 6th. Captain Conan may be good enough to win and he could have improved but i'm not sure this is the right trip for him tbh,especially on Good ground.

I really don't understand why they keep running Mad Moose.

If SDG was a genuine 169/170 horse then I'd be pricing him up around 4/7 with 6/1 the other 2. But I think it's more like 162 vs 2 x 160 horses. So 9/4 SDG and 3/1 the other 2 is about right. No bet in the race for me yet.

I'd be of the opinion that if CC had run in all the races that SDG did last year, the ratings, well, SDG's anyway would look a bit different, I know it's a long time ago, but on debut CC was comfortably the better horse, he went on to run over a trip that last year at least was the wrong trip for him, but was still able to put in good runs in the jewson and at aintree, SDG 16lb leap up the ratings from beating a declining FR is highly questionable I would have thought, only opinion though but I hope that CC is a better horse than SDG.

I would have the same suspicions too Duffy, however it wasn't just Finian's Rainbow in that race, some fairly other decent horses in behind and actually SDG was still technically a novice when running in that race.

Fascinating race though with very differing opinions price wise, when else could you get a 9/4 shot being priced up at evens/5/4 somewhere else

What about tactics? will Geraghty try and make all at his own pace. If he gets his own way and into a good rhythm then he could be hard to get past.

If I were the owner of Arvika L, I would be thinking why did we not make an entry??

And any idea where Overturn is??

Not a great renewal now imo.

No telling how good CC might be at 2miles....stable only went the 2m4f route because of Simonsig.

Agree with ELG there, I think I read somewhere that he was regarded as a bit weak last year and as he's a big horse it could be that this year he'll be able to develop into a 2.5 horse,you'd still be more than hopeful he'd be able to to himself justice over 2 miles though, ultimately I'm hoping he will develop into a big player for the ryanair with the strengthening up he's apparently done.

it's his entries in staying type races that interest me tbh.

He was certainly weak when walking over the line at Sandown last season,he will need to be a lot stronger than that if hes to be top notch at 2.5 imo.
At the moment for me he is a 2 miler.

Should add it was very soft when he struggled home at Sandown,and if he has strenghtend and on better ground he could be a threat in a race like the Ryannair I guess,but when I saw him in the nov chase at Sandown this time last year I was very impressed with him,it was quiet soft that day I recall.That was over 2m and I think at this stage its his optimum distance.
I expect him to win the Tingle Creek.

He won a couple times over the extra trip so if what's been said is true and he was weak then he's every chance this year to get the trip, either way, the entries over the trip are no surprise because they have no choice, other than SS being out like this week there is nothing for him over 2 miles, they have to target and work towards the Ryanair.

Captain Conan is my idea of the winner now. Unbeaten over 2miles as a chaser. Has Sire De Grugy held on last seasons form. I also think the arguement that Sire De Grugy has progressed past him will prove hollow. He hasnt beat genuine graded horses to earn his inflated mark. A defeat to Kid Kassidy is worrying and Henderson will know where Conan is in Comparison to the Kid. And id suspect Conan is he bigger hope going forward. Somersby doesnt win often enough to interest me but I expect a decent run. While the headgear needs to work the oracle for kauto stone who on recent form doesnt look too clever. 

Also if I was the owner of Arvika Ligeonnaire I would be entered up for this expecting to win and then be having a crack at the king george on boxing day. If u have a horse as good as he is going right handed surely you'd go for the big prizes this winter while confidence is high. The horse isn't getting any younger. Its a shame for the horses followers that we wont see it.

Yep,Mullins and co will be kicking themselves imo,would have really fancied him for this race.

Duffy,
Its all very well going up in trip to avoid clashing with yer stable superstar,just as long as the horse don't suffer for it.We don't know how strong the horse will be this season,so the Ryanair, which is a top race now, is open to question.
One thing for sure,until I see him finish off a 2m 5 race at the required level I wont be backing him for a Ryanair.

I was more or less laughed at on the Cheltenham section a few weeks back for suggesting the Tingle Creek as an ideal race for Arvika

He's half a stone better than anything in here in my opinion. I wonder why Sizing Europe has never ome back here after his easy win two years ago? Would have a favourite's chance on last season's form.

I'm with Captain Conan now, glad he's been dropped in trip, won the Henry VIII here last season over two miles. Beat Sire De Grugy easily last season and goes well fresh.

There is momentum building behind CC. He might go off favourite. Is it worth pointing out lots of people were saying avoid Nicky's first time out this season or not?

whatys wrong with sprinter?

Pregnant.

A double for the Moores at Sandown today.

wd sint, good solild performance there

Hacked up. A good weekend for the Moores.

CC wants a trip imo.

yeh, well done sint, good winner in the end.

cheers Stevie.

yep, well done sint - this non-believer is now a convert, he was very good there.

I think he is better right-handed tbh.

On another note, Flemenstar is out of the John Durkan tomorrow, lame.

Sounds like sour grapes being a CC fan but I'd still back him again against sdg with the run under his belt, he got desperately tired late on, still can't see the winner that highly rated,but I often miss the blindingly obvious!

you'd have to say the official handicap ratings were pretty much spot on and he's beaten Oiseau about 8 lengths further today than he did in the celebratiion cup last season.

CC travelled like the best horse in the Jewson but found nothing at the finish too. He may well come on for the run as tbh I suspected they were going to run in the December Gold Cup as a prep race for the King George. He only ran today because SS was out but I think SDG has improved past him anyway.

Added SDG now into my champ chs book at 16s laddies. Ok, may not run, and track/ground may not suit but at 16s against a horse that would be 2nd fav on the day with very few runners and 3 places worth the risk imo!

yep price seems ok. Maybe look at the without SS market.

"He won't necessarily go to Cheltenham as I think he needs a more conventional track. For some people it's the be all and end all, but not for me. I'd like to take him to France at some stage."

would nt touch him AP tbh myself but do like the horse

Somersby jumped bl00dy awful and still beat Captain Conan and imo would have won the race had he jumped.
Still that not to put SDG down,he jumped better and deserved to win.
Going forward this season I would be looking at Somersby's prices if they met again,think hes the better horse...when he jumps as he can do.

Somersby's performance interested me too - I'll need to go back and look at his jumping but my first impression was that he was just tapped for toe in the back straight.

I've liked both his efforts this season in comparison to his abbreviated campaign last year - trouble is going to be finding the right race, form book says Cheltenham is not his track but I'd be inclined to target the Ryanair on the assumption that Sprinter and Cue Card will go in opposite directions.

I'm sure he'll turn up for the Victor Chandler but liable to run into Sprinter again there.

It werent good rease,but he still managed to travel into the race,and then when he was just behind the winner at I think the pond fence(maybe the one after),he fecked up again.

I thought that CC travelled like the best horse and got desperately tired, we know he's got no question marks over him as a 2 miler remember, the question is whether he'll stay further, he finished yesterday like he didn't stay 2 miles, he didn't travel like a horse that needs further as like I say he travelled best, he badly needed it IMO, they won't meet again but I'd back him again against SDG next time for sure if it happened.

Somersby needs a trip, Captain Conan in my opinion is trip less. And i would back SDG against both again and again, even over 2m 4f at Cheltenham!

About the 16/1 voucher i now have for the champ chs, i looked at the post the trainer supposedly said about looking at the French racing around about that time in the year and can't see he will myself. Surely finishing 2nd or 3rd even in a champ chs will accrue more money than winning a race in France And should he even remotely get close to SS at xmas, i can see him being a certain starter. Also with it already looking a small ish field. At 16/1 defo worth the risk, what if something untoward were to happen to SS £50 place money for my tenner each way, al take that thank you very much!

If something happened to SS you wouldn't have a small field, if Cue Card ran poorly or threw up another question re : trip he'd back in it at a shot, you're better off having ss running and keeping everyone away for the place part, remember, he hates the track too.!

Yeah your probably right lol.

perhaps ss running and unseating at the first with no harm to horse or jockey?

Don't forget Simonsig folks. IF something did happen to SS then he'd be the first one to line up. That's if he is OK too after his minor injury.

Forgot all about him

what did you all think of the winner? I think he's about the most overrated horse around and the form of the Tingle is very poor. But what do I know, I bet a horse that horse that ran with choke out but was desperate to find something.

I bet SDG in the champ chs cos its most likely to be 2nd or 3rd fav behind SS in the market in a race very likely to not throw up very much depth amongst the opposition to SS, with likely hood of less than 8 runners, and 3 places thus making it one of the filthiest each way races within antepost rules. A reason i think why most books only went 7s and 8/1 after the tingle creek.

Never been sure of the ante post rules regarding each way and small fields just to clarify if their was only 5 runners on the day and you have one of the 5 on an ante post bet each way do you still get 1, 2, 3, on your selection???

Yes mate you do, you get whatever the place terms were for that race at time the bet was struck. If you keep an eye on place terms for vaious antepost markets on oddschecker you will see on markets where the books expect there to be less than 8 runners sometimes when still there maybe 8+ entries that they only offer 1/4 1-2 antepost, other times where it could be 50/50 less than 8 go to post they could still offer 1/5th 3 places, even on markets where generally they would be 1/4 all races on the day such as at cheltenham. When backing antepost each way, you always have to check whatever the place terms of the bet are and work out for yourself if it is good value or not. You are always weighing those quandaries up!

Each way antepost is not always good value though i like it.

There has been a couple of occasions in the past where i have backed something with place terms of 1/4 1-2-3 and 4 went to post and the race in fact on paper was very much a match, this was a long time ago now but my selection finished 3rd and i was paid! This was in the days before internet and was only thanks to a friend i kept the ticket lol!

Just to clarify:

20 entries = antepost 1/4 1-2-3-4
16 @ final declaration stage, normal market = 1/4 1-2-3-4, if one non runner normal market changes to 1/4 1-2-3 but antepost stays 1/4 1-2-3-4 even if only 4 run with 12 non runners!

^
The Cathcart was always the best race in the calendar for this.

But it does work both ways, you get paid out at whatever the place terms were when the bet was struck no matter how much the race changes from time of bet to race time. So if you backed something with 12 entries and you got 1/4 1-2-3 antepost, then the race was re-opened or during a supplementary stage and 4+ horses were added, your bet stays at 3 places, even if the day of race market is now paying 4!

SEATHESTARS....NO1 09 Dec 13 07:52 Joined: 04 Oct 09 | Topic/replies: 2,561 | Blogger: SEATHESTARS....NO1's blog
I bet SDG in the champ chs cos its most likely to be 2nd or 3rd fav behind SS in the market in a race very likely to not throw up very much depth amongst the opposition to SS, with likely hood of less than 8 runners, and 3 places thus making it one of the filthiest each way races within antepost rules. A reason i think why most books only went 7s and 8/1 after the tingle creek.

I'm guessing you got A* in English Language, STS?

BTW, it is dangerous to assume SS will have few opponents. On the face of it there is not much at the momemt but over the course of a season there are always improvers in each of the classic races.

No sint, i got a F in Enhglishddd lol

One more word of caution, 16's sounds great on the face of it but in reality it's 6/4 a place and you're only really playing for 2 places, plus he doesn't like the course and plus plus he is a horse that will sort of be in there actually half trying to win so they could bollox him trying to do just that rather than trot round and pick up a place...but that's all worst case scenario

fair points though Duffy

16s is 6/4 a place? Are you sure, i know i only got an F in English at school oh and a F in Maths too but even i can work out that 16s is 4/1 a place 1/4 the odds lol

yep, and you spent double, people always seem to forget about that, but a quid each way is 2 quid...you get a fiver back and it's 6/4 the place.

taking the 5/1 on Conan, Duffy?

Yes, he's had his run now and if he's a better horse than SDG as I think he is then there will be no excuses this time.