Japan Cup

All in on Gold Ship :)

He's in the betting at 5/1. Current odds:



Point Of Entry     5/2                                                                                    
Goldship     3                                                                                    
Kizuna         4                                                                                    
Epiphaneia     5                                                                                    
Just A Way     7                                                                                    
Simenon     9                                                                                    
Big Blue Kitten    11                                                                                    
Dunaden     16                                                                                    
Eishin Flash     16                                                                                    
Real Solution     25                                                                                    
Tokei Halo     25                                                                                    
Brown Panther     40                                                                                    
Dark Shadow     40                                                                                    
Fenomeno     40                                                                                    
Tosen Jorden     40                                                                                    
Tosen Ra
40

Fenomeno looks fair e/w value at 40s

Hi Ursens - I mentioned above that I acidentally chopped off Gentildonna. To avoid further confusion:


Gentildonna       5/2
Point Of Entry     5/2                                                                                   
Goldship     3                                                                                   
Kizuna         4                                                                                   
Epiphaneia     5                                                                                   
Just A Way     7                                                                                   
Simenon     9                                                                                   
Big Blue Kitten    11                                                                                   
Dunaden     16                                                                                   
Eishin Flash     16                                                                                   
Real Solution     25                                                                                   
Tokei Halo     25                                                                                   
Brown Panther     40                                                                                   
Dark Shadow     40                                                                                   
Fenomeno     40                                                                                   
Tosen Jorden     40                                                                                   
Tosen Ra     40

Seems like Kizuna, Epiphaneia and Just A Way are out. What a shame :(

Sam Walker in today's RP sums up this race exactly with Gentildonna running to a RPR of 112. The Orfevre form lines were always over rated and actually begins to bring into line the St Nicholas Abbey, Cirrus Des Aigles and Farhh over ratings. Something he has continued to point out all year.

Hi Figgis, hope you are well. Poor time for gambling at present and looks like I've missed nothing.
Gentildonna ran against SNA at Meydan and was given a terrible ride, similarly SNA ran against CDA in the same race the year before where he received a poor ride and CDA was just touched off by Farhh. It's great when all these points link up so nicely. And of course Orfevre confirmed his promise again in the Arc.
I don't think it necessarily reflects on Treve but Gentildonna once again confirms the advantage a decent filly has as a 3 year old at that time of year. Sadly next season starts with restricted races so Treve may not be tested until next years Arc. Apparently she is going for the POW, that's restricted, then the Vermeille, fillies only, then the Arc. By the time the Arc comes she will be the greatest horse in the history of the world.

Brig, fine thanks. Don't you take into account the pace of a race? When comparing form lines, even allowing for the assumption that all the runners run to the peak of their ability in each case (obviously they don't always), beaten distances are very much affected by the pace of the race. A horse that is 3 lengths superior to another in a fast run race wouldn't necessarily be able to replicate that margin of superiority in a slower run race. This year's Champion Stakes, for example, was run at a slower pace for the conditions than the norm. While some people correctly pointed out that the winner was best positioned in a race run at such a tempo (ignoring the fact that at the same time he was inconvenienced by having no cover and running a bit too keenly), the margins of superiority were also affected. In my view Ruler of the World was very much flattered to finish so close. I'm sure you wouldn't judge Brigadier Gerard on those races where it appeared he had only a small margin of superiority.

And of course the Meydan track would help CDA get the trip and also suit Gentildonna but SNA went for home a good way out and caught the Japanese filly out. So not much between them. Gentildonna beat Orfevre, so not much between them, narrowly and it is likely Ruler of the World would have finished right up with Orfevre in the Arc in a strongly run race. So where would ROW finish in the Champion? Right alongside Farhh and CDA.

It is far too early to be unimpressed with the 2 year olds Fig I have already said I think Australia could be very interesting. The rest have shown nothing as yet though. But when this years 2 year olds take on their elders then we will know more.
Treve will be interesting. She will have restricted races to choose from until the Vermeille as will Ruler of the World unless they meet at Royal Ascot. ROTW will have the Irish Gr1 races to go for. CDA could go for the St Cloud race again (if Treve runs in the Ganay), the King George, Prix Dollar then Champion Stakes. He won't meet Treve or ROTW at all if he runs in them. Of course CDA runs in Hong Kong and may go to Meydan again.
The Lockinge, Queen Anne, Sussex, Marios etc will be shared between Hannon's two.

I agree that Treve is likely to have an easy ride early on, I'd be looking to oppose her when she meets serious opposition, though. Ruler of the World will also have easy pickings in the early season Irish Gp1 but I'll still be looking to oppose him there given reasonable opposition. CDA will be an 8yo, in my view he has already declined a bit this season and will possibly do so again next season. However, at his age it is only to be expected. I have massive doubts that other runners that got packed off to stud with inflated reputations as 3yos could've performed as well as he has for as long.

The Champion Stakes was quite slowly run for a Gp1, in those circumstances relative ability gets compressed. CDA's times were better in previous years than this year, likewise Farhh had also run faster times than he did in the Champion Stakes, hence the reason why ROTW was able to get so close to the front two, the ground was also borderline heavy. I certainly don't understand the theory that if you hang around long enough a break will come as the evidence doesn't back it up. Maybe one race could be 'fluked' but not multiple races. As for the Canford Cliffs form lines, I just don't read form in such a rigid mechanical way from one season to the next.

If Encke hadn't run in the Leger, Camelot would've been packed off to stud as an unbeaten winner of the RPT, Guineas, Derby, Irish Derby, Leger. He would've been hailed as the first triple crown winner since Nijinsky. While some people would've questioned what he beat and whether he could've achieved anything as a 4yo, others would've said he could only beat what he was up against and that he had untapped potential. I have no doubt that some horses of yesteryear gained inflated reputations on the back of similar achievements. The plain fact is horses aren't getting slower.

It was slowly run and that didn't hamper either of the first two.

It depends what you mean by hamper? If a race is run slower than ideal early on then the best horses obviously can't run as fast as they would've in a quicker run race, horses with lesser ability are often able to finish closer than they would. As for US speed figures, I like Beyer's books but if those are the figures you're referring to then all I can say is they are very basic at best.

Sorry I mean't to say 'if' it was slowly run it didn't hamper he first two. In fact the first 4 were the only Gr1 winners in the race and nothing exceeded expectations so the race must have been fairly truly run.
If there was an unlucky horse it was the 3rd horse who clearly stays further than the other 2, had to race wide all of the way and had just run in the Arc.
Well you have had lots of disappointing years then Fig. The whole industry is based upon 3 and 4 year olds. This is only a freak because  it is lower grade in my opinion. A horse that takes 40+ wins to win a Group 1 then wins only two Gr1's in his next 13 runs, the only classic winners were in the German 2000 Gns and German Oaks, nothing even ran in let alone won or placed in a UK or French classic, four of them have been beaten at Gr3 level, a Thirsk Hunt Cup winner, I could go on but you will walk many miles to get a weaker set of credentials.

I'm sure there may have been some but I never said that. You said it was slowly run Fig and he was dawn on the outside and failed to get any cover whereas Farhh and CDA had almost perfect races. The only difference being that Soumi allowed Farhh first run in the straight. You would have to be very protective to think anything other than that. I said at the time that ROTW was the moral winner imo.

I see you nicely skirted my other points there Fig. Anyway I'm sure a slowly run race would play more into the hands of the non stayer, handily placed, pacemaker led protagonist than any of the others. The truth as I see it is that CDA could easily have won had the race been more strongly run and had Soumi not waited on Farhh. Also I think ROTW could have won had he been drawn better, trained for this race and had his own pacemaker. There are not many races you could say that about so perhaps we are in the midst of a large group of exceptional horses.
I think there have been only 3 European horses rated 135 and above in this decade so having Excelebration, Farhh, CDA, Treve, ROTW, Olympic Glory, Toronado, Dawn Approach and Moonlight Cloud all bordering this figure just shows how exceptional the times are. Camelot probably missed out on it but perhaps Magician should be included as well.
No, it isn't me thinking there's some over rating going on.

*thought

It's been great Fig. I'm off to bed so good night.

Good morning Fig. It won as many as Wild Coco if memory serves. It ran the race of its life, like Wild Coco, and the 3rd horse was a multiple Gr1 winner. When the hype has gone only the form book is left.

About strongly run races etc you completely miss the point. Whether a race is slowly or strongly doesn't always affect the result. You pick out Darara selectively though as a 3 year old filly, at that time of year, who was bang in form she ran creditably and, if the race was steadily run it does favour some and not others as in Penglai Pavilion. If the Arc was framed around PP then goodness me. Unless you run the same race under the same conditions with a stronger or slower pace then you have to use whatever expertise you have gained over the years. You will be right sometimes and sometimes you will be wrong. All that information does is provide you with an alternative. Willie Mullins thought Simenon would have benefited from a stronger pace in the Melbourne Cup but, as he said, he would have seized the end result with both hands before the race. It's all subjective about pace and times and really only any use as a 'possible' guide to future results.
My opinion about the Champion Stakes is that it was run to suit the winner more than the 2nd or 3rd. I cannot prove it but as previous results and ratings show the winner and 2nd should have finished together so, overall, the result was right therefore the 3rd horse ran creditably against two horses who ran to form. And that was backed up by the position of the 4th horse.

Ouch!!Struck a nerve somewhere.

I haven't said the 'old' days were better but when I consider the merits of individuals today I only have the past to compare them to. Who do you compare them to?
Sprinter Sacre and Kauto Star etc are compared with Arkle, what's wrong with that? The only difference being the horses of today are fresh in the mind whereas horses of the past only have the cold form book to back them up. And that is all Frankel will have in a few years time.

I don't know who was best and I suggest neither do you Figgis. What I do know is that many people in trying to prove their points do not compare like with like. The racing press is as guilty as anyone for that.

If you have followed my threads you will know I have a mistrust of the current Timeform bosses and question their reasoning and ethics. I have written to them about it but they have failed to respond in any satisfactory manner at all. And when I have questioned their ratings no-one has replied with any kind of reasonable explanation or, like you, avoided any salient points as they choose. It isn't difficult because they posted them on C4 racing ffs. I like to think I consider every point. Some may be happy to be led by the nose because it fits in with their opinions but I don't. And I am absolutely certain that when the next champion comes along all of the points I have questioned will immediately be raised about Frankel and the horses he has beaten.
I have absolutely no intention whatsoever in changing your views Figgis, you flatter yourself, but I am interested in discussing ALL of the points because that is the only way any possible conclusion of any kind can be reached. That is exactly what a forum is for. Not to change views but discuss opposing views. If my points are so blinkered and ridiculous I would have been totally shot down in flames ages ago.

The fact that I generally concentrate on Frankel and his opponents only proves the point that I am not a know all about everything. I just concentrate on knowing as much as I can about as few things as I can. I bet the same way. And it works for me.