Horse Antepost
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I've strongly fancied Moonlight Cloud on her last two starts so I'm not one to underestimate her but I can't believe the disparity in the market between her and Gordon Lord Byron here. I see Topspeed has GLB with a whopping 9lbs to find with the mare and RPRs have him needing to find 7lbs. I find that baffling as I have MC only 1lb ahead with her allowance. She did very well to win those two Gp1s in the space of a week but I think that must've taken something out of her. She's been given a deserved break since but I wouldn't take it as a given that she'll return at the very best of her form.
Gordon Lord Byron comes here off a career best effort, I have his Haydock win 4lbs higher than anything he's achieved before. He's had enough of a rest since, gets the give in the ground today that suits him best and returns to repeat his victory last year. What's not to like?
Regardless of whether MC will be in top form today, a 1lb advantage is negligible, at the prices it's a no brainer, GLB has to be backed.
Gordon Lord Byron comes here off a career best effort, I have his Haydock win 4lbs higher than anything he's achieved before. He's had enough of a rest since, gets the give in the ground today that suits him best and returns to repeat his victory last year. What's not to like?
Regardless of whether MC will be in top form today, a 1lb advantage is negligible, at the prices it's a no brainer, GLB has to be backed.
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A stone clear based on the rating off which of her races? Did you back her last time?
Excluding the Cox horse who clearly didn't like the ground the Haydock race won by GLB wasn't a good one, barely Group 1. His other wins are not great though he runs well in defeat. Mainly because these races lack depth. When he met MC last time it was a 3 horse affair and again the Cox horse left his form at Newmarket. Last season he beat Penitent in this race and he isn't Gr1.
MC should win but is too short for me and she isn't unbeatable.
MC should win but is too short for me and she isn't unbeatable.
Brig, the time of his Haydock win was well up to scratch for a Gp1 and compares very favourably with Haydock Sprint Cups of years gone by. He's a better horse with give in the ground, he didn't really get that at Deauville. He always does well at this time of year and his last run was a career best. Horses can and often do improve at the age of 5.
I couldn't disagree with that Fig. But I am a form man and these races lack depth. Both have been trained for this race and the trip and ground will suit both. It's just when you look at the horses that finished just behind him in his races this season which are Slade Power, Ansgar, Tulips, Lietir Mor, Rossdhu Queen, Hawkeyethenoo and Clancy Avenue do not represent top class. It doesn't matter what wins only what you beat imo.
Sprint performances (5-6f) always get underestimated using collateral ratings compared to time ratings. Lethal Force put up the best July Cup performance I've seen in years yet can't even hit a 130 Timeform rating. Even Dayjur only got a 137 rating. Milers and middle distance horses are given much higher ratings when running to the same standard. Virtually impossible for a sprinter to hit 140 on collateral ratings.
Too many go overboard on an easy winner without taking the quality of the opposition into consideration. MC beat Lethal Force but he was trained for the Jubilee and the July Cup. This was an afterthought as was the Haydock Sprint. Last time she beat Olympic Glory who hasn't franked the form. However she has the best form in the race so on all facts she wins. This is a 2 horse race so there is money to be made if you like 1/3 shots. If GLB wins I think it lowers MC's form not improves GLB's form.
Your point about sprinters is pretty fair but often these races lack real depth and winning form can be questionable. One of my favourites is Lochsong but the horses she beat were not great.
The horses Dayjur beat in his Gr1's were Laguna Beach, Statoblest and Royal Academy. Only Royal Academy was Gr1 class and he was really a miler and wasn't given the greatest ride at Haydock. In his Gr 2 wins he beat Tigani and Ron's Victory and they weren't anywhere near Gr1 class. Too much hype and not depth.
Your point about sprinters is pretty fair but often these races lack real depth and winning form can be questionable. One of my favourites is Lochsong but the horses she beat were not great.
The horses Dayjur beat in his Gr1's were Laguna Beach, Statoblest and Royal Academy. Only Royal Academy was Gr1 class and he was really a miler and wasn't given the greatest ride at Haydock. In his Gr 2 wins he beat Tigani and Ron's Victory and they weren't anywhere near Gr1 class. Too much hype and not depth.
If GLB wins I think it lowers MC's form not improves GLB's form.
I don't see a horse's form in such linear terms, there are peaks and troughs for me, but if it works for you.
I don't see a horse's form in such linear terms, there are peaks and troughs for me, but if it works for you.
I think peaks and troughs depend upon how a horse is trained. GLB has been on the go all year so will have peaks and troughs whereas MC has been trained for each race and trained sparingly. A bit like The Fugue if you like. The problem is when a horse turns up trained for a race facing a horse that hasn't the form can be distorted. Also when a horse has limited and specific targets the form can be distorted. In the Marois only the winner and 2nd could be considered as trained for that race. There is a difference in my view.
Oh well, GLB far too keen but MC was imperious today anyway, great mare.
A 2 horse race where the other horse never ran his race.
a great generations of milers - still winning group 1s aged 5
You see Fig. When you over rate GLB when he hasn't beaten much then it forces up those horses that beat him. That's exactly why I said if he beat her it would bring her rating down.
Brig, horses can get overrated just as much by collateral comparisons as they can by times. I'd argue more so, Olympic Glory being a case in point.
Too much hype about, that's the problem. Let the horses and their form do the talking. I just don't get it. With so many races nowadays to target it isn't that often 2 horses turn up with the same race as a main target. In yesterday's race the horses who targeted it were the first three home. For many trainers and owners they run in hope. Look at Declaration of War. I wonder how good he could be if he were to target specific races only. Like Moonlight Cloud. We won't know. And AOB is the worst culprit. It's bad training practice.
Even when Declaration of War was a fresh horse he never put up the kind of performance Moonlight Cloud has in her career. I do agree about targeting, though, particularly at this time of year. Performances from fresher horses can look better than they really are.
You may be right Fig but when they met it was his 6th race of the year. He was touched off by Intello who confirmed the Al Kazeem form in the Arc. Should they both be targeted at a mile specifically I would just give her the call. DOW is rated about 7lbs higher than GLB so it should be close, very close.
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