Horse Antepost
There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
03 Oct 13
14:53
Joined:
Date Joined:
20 Aug 02
I can't see past him.
Crabbed for only being workmanlike at 1/6 last time but (a) It was a Group 1, (b) the horse who finished 2nd had hosed up in a Group 1 the time before and (c) the horse who finished 3rd has won a Group 1 since and (d) it was a stepping stone for this so he wasn't tuned up. Hardly dodgy form.
In 11 career starts he has won 9, including 4 Group 1s and a Group 2 in his last 5 races.
He has won Group 1s by 5 lengths on good to firm and 4.5 lengths on soft so not ground dependent.
Has only two defeats in his career, a shock odds-on 2nd in a Group 1 to Pastorious at 25/1 who wne ton to win another couple of Group 1s, so pretty excusable, and a 4th to Danedream.
Read yesterday that 60 horses beaten in the Arc have gone back to try again in the last 25 years and all have failed which puts me off Orfevre.
Don't like giving that weight away to 3 year olds as it seems to tilt the balance in their favour with results in recent years, but Novellist looks rock solid to me.
Crabbed for only being workmanlike at 1/6 last time but (a) It was a Group 1, (b) the horse who finished 2nd had hosed up in a Group 1 the time before and (c) the horse who finished 3rd has won a Group 1 since and (d) it was a stepping stone for this so he wasn't tuned up. Hardly dodgy form.
In 11 career starts he has won 9, including 4 Group 1s and a Group 2 in his last 5 races.
He has won Group 1s by 5 lengths on good to firm and 4.5 lengths on soft so not ground dependent.
Has only two defeats in his career, a shock odds-on 2nd in a Group 1 to Pastorious at 25/1 who wne ton to win another couple of Group 1s, so pretty excusable, and a 4th to Danedream.
Read yesterday that 60 horses beaten in the Arc have gone back to try again in the last 25 years and all have failed which puts me off Orfevre.
Don't like giving that weight away to 3 year olds as it seems to tilt the balance in their favour with results in recent years, but Novellist looks rock solid to me.
sort by:
Show
per page
Replies: 4
|
By:
Why start a new thread ?
|
|
By:
Roger its only 59 from 60, Tony Bin won. plus id want to wait for the draw, stall 1-8 and you may have a bet.
Good Luck. |
|
By:
From the uselsss stats department: Novellist has only been beaten home by German bred horses Danedream, Pastorius and Ovambo Queen, so there can only be two winners in the Arc. ;)
|
|
By:
Do not under estimate the draw and the going for that matter, as well as the breeding.
Good Luck. |