Horse Antepost
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I was very impressed with Lanansaak last time, as I suspect many people were, but I was also impressed with the time she ran, it stood out as easily Listed class. I expected her to be favourite last night, which she is becoming close to, but I'd make her much shorter as I have her 5lbs clear of this field and don't see too many likely improvers lurking. I'm not sure what the deal is with the hood, but I didn't see anything in her performance last time to concern me. There ought to be a decent pace on with the size of the field and the other HAM runner in opposition. If she's in the same form as last time she'll be hard to beat.
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in rare agreement Figgis! Only a back to form Purr Along should be able to m(e)ow her down.
Can't understand why Hanagan chosen Estiqaama? |
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I was most impressed with her win at ascot visually/timewise ,but i do have a couple of doubts about her
She did bomb after winning her debut at two(nearly the same gap between races this season)now that could have been she was just to immature to take two reasonably quick runs.The last doubt (which is just one of my 'pets')i hate going over board on wide margin ascot winners,but as said,thats just one of my things. good luck,but for those reason,i will take a watching brief |
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do you have any doubts about her backing up after the lay off figgis?
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those doubts absolutely right, sj, though a plus is the yard running out of their skins at the minute.
At least we can play a clear rated horse at 4/1 rather than the usual odds on, they don't come along that often. |
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agree bob at these odds you can play,but i am an old stick in the mud.lol
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 sj. Waiting for the next Frankel are you?Harry, interesting that raceform reported Lanansaak playing up in the prelims on her second start (15 days after debut), where she raced keenly in front off a slow pace, compared to being held up off a modest pace when winning on Salisbury. At least she is older now and presumably more mature, had slightly longer 20 day layoff this time and won fairly easily at Ascot, though on the other hand, clock suggests she couldn't have done much more so must have put plenty in? Maybe the paddock will tell you how she is going to run today? |
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Ped, has Hanagan had the choice or have they both just been given the same horses they rode last time? I'm glad Lanansaak has the same jockey anyway.
SJ, yes she was disappointing on her second start, she was very keen though and it looks like they've worked on settling her. I know a lot of people don't trust Ascot form, particularly wide margin winners, but personally I've never had a problem with the form there. Harry, as she appeared to not have to work too hard in the race I don't think it'll be a problem, although I do accept that races run in a fast time can take a lot out of a horse, even when they appear to have been achieved easily. When it comes right down to it we can never be sure any horse will repeat a good recent effort, at least the trainer sounds confident about her current well being. |
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I have to say i am keen on estiqaama for this although only winning minor events at yarmouth she is going the right way...i see her getting loose on the easy lead here and like her mother is improving with racing for her underrated trainer
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Roger said: "Lanansaak seems in great form. She came out of her Ascot race well and is thriving. She looks incredibly well for a filly at this stage of the year.
"She is stepping up in grade but the ground and trip should suit and I am hopeful that she will run well." |
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i'm a tad like sj in regards ascot but she looks a real nice type and her trainer can do no wrong at present...her head carriage was also of slight concern
but anyway i am a stickler for horses backing up off the lay off (in regards backing next time) and for that reason alone i can't play her |
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isn't one of the roads to riches backing improving fillies in the autumn?
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i see backing fillies races full stop as a road to the poor house ped...
luckily we have 3 of them today  estiqaama is an improving filly |
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At least we can play a clear rated horse at 4/1 rather than the usual odds on
Ped, probably as she doesn't appear to be rated as highly by some. I see Topspeed has her with 6lbs to find on Maureen, and Timeform have chosen Igugu and Estiqaama, I assume some time analysis has gone into that decision. |
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i see backing fillies races full stop as a road to the poor house ped...
indeed Harry If there was a tongue in cheek smiley, it would be up there in spades |
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ped
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figgis, I have Maureen min 9lbs below her Guineas 6th four starts since.
Estiqaama improving yes, but not even on my radar for listed level Igugu is interestng, but Mike De Kock 100+ day lay off horses in UK are 4-28 since he first had runners here in 2007 with the last 14 back to 2009 all biting the dust. His 4 winners all came in Aug-Oct 2008 |
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Ped, even on her Guineas form I have her with 7lbs to find with Varian's filly on these terms. It's not as though I rated this year's Guineas as poor either, I have it slightly above average, so I really don't understand how some of these ratings are reached.
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De Kock had a maiden winner, Wadnaan, at Yarmouth last week fwiw.
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sint, stats above were for horses after a layoff
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Ped, well I say I don't understand, but I do know a chunk of it is wfa. From memory, Maureen would be given an 8lb higher rating just because that form was achieved in May, as opposed to Lanansaak's win being achieved this month. It all depends if you go along with the belief that an average Guineas runner improves 8lbs by Sept, you won't be surprised to know I don't.
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the one filly who is the naughty one here is purr along if you take a look at her last 2 runs she hasn't been getting home for me over a 1m2f...
she wouldn't have anything to find with these to get involved and this class droper isn't easily passed over for me... |
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the WFA scale obviously only an average, Figgis, and can understand your doubts.
Maureen not an "early" 2yo, but did debut end June, had 4 starts as juvenile, 5 more at 3. The WFA diff between the Guineas and now for a mile is actually 9lbs. Would you expect a filly like Maureen who came to hand pretty early in the Guineas to be clocking a 9lbs faster basic speed rating? Personally no, so can agree with you there. Thinking back, maybe that's why the likes of Raven's Pass was able to reverse form with Henrythenavigator later in the season, one had more physical progress (and a better basic speed rating) to make, the other had done most of his maturing by mid-summer. Hence you could not apply WFA strictly to those two horses |
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Harry, if Purr Along back to 2yo best, she wins for me....
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Yes, agree about RP and Henry, I had Henry a little below his best in that QE2, but Ravens Pass had slightly improved past him anyway.
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Ped, not saying Purr Along can't win, but don't you think she was flattered to get so close to Certify due to the slow early?
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I think if she can run to her falmouth form she will go close ped tbf
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I gave her a large figure that day, figgis, which didn't fit in with it being a slow pace.... but did with the distances back to the others who included some fair fillies for their grade
But have wondered about my Doncaster 1m standard a few times, did you have a slow figure for her that day? |
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No, actually it was quite a decent figure, just that Certify had already run better and I think Purr Along was a bit flattered to get so close. She'd need to improve on that with wfa and the evidence so far has been that she hasn't.
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Yes I know Pedro. I'm just pointing out the fact he has trained a winner in the UK since Aug-Oct 2008.
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I think if she can run to her falmouth form she will go close ped tbf
I'm afraid I rely more on speed figs than form, Harry. If you and I walked down the street with Usain Bolt, we'd both finish within yards of the guy 100m later on. If we all ran, I for one would still be rising from the starting blocks when Bolt crossed the line. Agree Figgis re Purr Along, she's been well below par this season. Again it's the odds isn't it? 9/1 is juicy enough to tempt you in over the obvious doubts. |
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You selection had the hood on last time too. Not sure if you're aware with you saying you're not sure what it's about.
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GCW, yes that's what I meant, I'm not sure if that indicates she's a particularly difficult filly or something and nothing.
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Varian seems to put the hood on alot of his hard pullers, just to help them settle better
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A tame effort from mine but no excuse, I never would've fancied the winner, 16/1 looked about right.
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seems the horse had a bad draw in french group 1 guineas and still finished 4th, lanansaak still traded very low, good selection
overall. run well was beaten by better horse on the day, did finish tamely. |
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Well I've certainly had worse
 . She may do better again, but more inclined to believe I've rated her a few pounds too high. |