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FOYLESWAR
25 Sep 13 10:48
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Date Joined: 09 Jan 11
| Topic/replies: 22,680 | Blogger: FOYLESWAR's blog
only just over 3 months till the king george and some early  thoughts on the great race . with a bit of luck,  and if some of the irish trainers fancy a crack, we could have a classic  renewal this year ,hopefully decent ground will ensure  a big field ,hendo will have a strong hand with long run and simonsig prominent at the head of the ante post betting , pumpkin could have either or both  al ferof  and  silvinaco conte targeted for the race , and ryanaire winner cue card  and last years runner up captain chris a nd menorah from the hobbs yard could also have a pop , throw in dynaste and a few more 2nd season chasers in the mix and its a top class field ! add the possible irish chasers and it could be a vintage renewal ,one who i would love to see line up is flemenstar who has moved to tony martins yard and could be even better than he has  shown so far(owner has said he was  not right last year ,make of that what you will ) but a change of scenery for this brilliant jumper and traveller and  decent ground  and 3 mile round kempton should be right up his street ,dont forget this fella looked all over the winner  and was laughing at sir descamp and co untill the last 100 odd yards in bad going at leopardstown . he was put in his place by the monster !but then again what horse hasnt been
if he is anywhere near back to his best and had this  race were to be on the agenda  and  available at  over 20/1 on here he would have to be seriously considered ! but as with many  of the irish trainers they seem to prefer to campaign their horses in ireland but who knows its a big pot and if you dont buy a ticket you wont win the raffle , so could be worth an each way interest at the prices would love to see him attacking the king george fences ,lets hope for decent ground and a big field .good luck
Pause Switch to Standard View early king george chase forts !
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Report Graeme83 September 25, 2013 11:47 AM BST
I'd rather the Irish horses stayed where they are until March. I think they should  be supporting Irish races, plus i they all mess folk about with their plans, and quite a few of them do so to land the odds. It's bad enough that Mullins is planning to send horses over here more frequently.
Report judorick September 25, 2013 5:09 PM BST
one of the very top races of the year and it is usually won by one of two types:

1) the proven top class, multiple Grade 1 winning seasoned chaser

2) second season chaser that has shown the potential to be totally top class


Group 1: Long Run, Cue Card + one or two others (e.g Sir Des Champs)

Group 2: Simonsig, Benefficient, Dynaste


Long Run, Sir Des Champs, First Lieutenant and possibly Flemenstar are all closely matched on last season's form. Cue Card has yet to prove he stays and although I do love him, and think he is under rated, nearly every King George winner had already won at 3 miles before taking this.

The top 3 second season chasers all need to improve on their novice form to come on and win this race but of course that's been done many times.

Absolutely love this race but will not be betting til the going is known. Only 3 months away!
Report boy wonder 07 September 25, 2013 6:20 PM BST
I always respect your posts judorick, I posted on here months ago that I think dynaste is a good bet for this first bet him in may that Feltham win was outstanding 4 seconds quicker than an all out long run in the king George and dynaste never came off the bridle GET ON
Report judorick September 25, 2013 6:45 PM BST
I just don't like the horse sorry mate, made loads laying him and won't be backing him in the King george
Report boy wonder 07 September 25, 2013 7:13 PM BST
fair enough we will see but I don't know where you have made loads laying him one defeat in five chases doesn't augur well if you have regularly laid him he will win this easily but once again that is my opinion
Report judorick September 25, 2013 7:32 PM BST
well good luck with that, don't agree at all but that's what it's all about
Report judorick September 25, 2013 7:44 PM BST
FECK ME!! Just realised I was getting Dynaste mixed up with Grands Crus.... ouch! yes. it's grands Crus that made me loads by laying him

ffs..grey horses from Pipe yard confusion!
Report boy wonder 07 September 25, 2013 7:54 PM BST
lol
Report PeteTheBloke September 30, 2013 7:25 PM BST
Laugh You have to love it when someone fesses up to a mistake in this place. You don't see it very often.
Report judorick September 30, 2013 11:39 PM BST
LaughLaugh
Report SEATHESTARS....NO1 October 1, 2013 12:30 PM BST
They wont know in what direction Simonsig went in this! Early dangers Al Ferof, Fleminstar for me. 5/1 now, massive price!
Report boy wonder 07 October 1, 2013 1:47 PM BST
you had better park the horse box on the home bend to enable him to get home
Report SEATHESTARS....NO1 October 1, 2013 4:06 PM BST
Ridiculous to presume Simonsig wont get 3 miles around Kempton! Folly and expensive in my opinion
Report boy wonder 07 October 1, 2013 5:29 PM BST
lol no problem its great we all have different opinions
Report FOYLESWAR October 1, 2013 7:44 PM BST
hendo thinks simonsig  is a king george horse then he is in a better position than anyone to know ,just the price puts me off but they obviously think the world of him ,certainly would not write him off and probably a lot more improvement too come .
Report boy wonder 07 October 2, 2013 11:21 AM BST
I read yesterday that simonsig is to be aimed at the Peterborough that race over 2m 4.5f is on dec 12th
Report SEATHESTARS....NO1 October 2, 2013 12:02 PM BST
That's all very well but i think his participation in either race all hinges on what race he is aimed at at the Cheltenham Festival. Or would he you think be kept for Aintree? I can't see that happening and for the life of me i cannot think of a race over 2.5 miles at the festival for 1st season chasers just out of novice company.
He ran in and won the Neptune as a novice hurdler, he ran in and won the Arkle as a novice chaser, if he can improve with age again out of novice company, he would be a hard nut to crack in the KG! And then Hendo really could be mob handed in the Gold Cup this year! Not only do i think 5/1 at this stage is a good price, i think its more than fair for a horse i can see possibly being around 6/4 for the race come the start of December! It certainly is not impossible!
Report boy wonder 07 October 2, 2013 12:16 PM BST
I don't think Henderson has decided himself he is obviously a horse with tremendous potential but I would like to see him win at 3m before I could have him for the king George I would certainly take him on at 6/4
Report ACStafford October 12, 2013 11:56 PM BST
Long Run is available at 8/1. With his Kempton record and a guaranteed runner, he is surely overpriced.
Report buddeliea October 13, 2013 7:20 AM BST
After watching that Arkle,i would not touch Simonsig at those prices........unless its in a hurdle race.
Report sisyphus October 20, 2013 4:05 PM BST
Long Run, Sir Des Champs, First Lieutenant and possibly Flemenstar are all closely matched on last season's form. Cue Card has yet to prove he stays and although I do love him, and think he is under rated, nearly every King George winner had already won at 3 miles before taking this.

Kicking King first win at 3 mile
Edredon Bleu first win at 3 mile
Desert Orchid first win at 3 mile
Report sisyphus October 20, 2013 4:37 PM BST
After watching that Arkle,i would not touch Simonsig at those prices........unless its in a hurdle race.

I would love to know your reasoning Bud

If You put both the Arkle and the Queen Mother races video's up side by side and start both of them as they jump the first fence you will see that the novice race pace increased to over a second ahead (5 lengths) over the next four fences and when the races began in earnest, Simonsig matched Sprinter Sacre fence to fence right to the last, the brisker pace of the Arkle then takes its toll as they tire on the run to the line but the first three home still manage to finish way ahead of Sizing Europe.

The second home recently reiterated that visual form against Sizing Europe in a actual race.
Report judorick October 20, 2013 5:48 PM BST
I'll let you know sissyphus that I have backed Cue Card for the Gold Cup at 25/1 and 33/1 with money back as a free bet if non runner because I believe he will definitely stay and he is hugely under rated

You have selected one comment from a whole post which was about the typical winners of the King George. Can you find more than 3 that won for the first time at 3 miles in the King George?

If not then you have proven my point that nearly every King George winner had won at 3 miles before winning the race. Also, Cue Card is an intended runner in the Betfair Chase and he could still go into the King George having won at 3 miles+ (race will be 3 mile 1 furlong this year)

The going is the most crucial factor in this race as the chances of various runners will depend on it.
Report FOYLESWAR October 20, 2013 7:35 PM BST
having put up flemenstar no harm in having another string to my bow in this race  as judo says conditions will be crucial to how many line up and if its heavy like last year then it would play right into the hands of long run ,who has never been out of the 1st 3 and never been on the deck (hope that dont come back and bite me on the rse )has won the race twice , stays longer than the jehovas witnesses and will have this race as his main target ,  and i think may be happier  going right handed will handle heavy and is a fair price for a horse who ticks all the boxes.. selection long run 7s on here 2 points win good luck .
Report buddeliea October 20, 2013 9:13 PM BST
I weren't at all impressed with Simonsig in the Arkle Sissyphus,and I think he would have a serious chance of winning the Churdle,thats my reasoning.Plus he aint never been 3m,so may not stay,and therefore I would want better prices to find out if he does.
Not sure comparing the 2 races as you have is really the best way of looking at it myself,and had Simonsig been in the Queen Mum I suspect he would have struggled more than he did in beating Baily Green.
Report sisyphus October 21, 2013 12:57 PM BST
So you definitely think Cue Card will stay 3 mile 2 furlongs at Cheltenham yet he visibly appeared not to stay 3 mile in last years king George. Incidentally those 3 horses won half the king George's run over the last 23 years between them.
Report sisyphus October 21, 2013 4:53 PM BST
Totally agree with you regarding Champion hurdle Bud, think it was a close call last year and but for the stable having Darlan and Grandouet they chose to go chasing.
Report breadnbutter October 22, 2013 12:17 AM BST
what happened to F.Doumen

Nupsala
The Fellow x 2
Algan
First Gold

Used to always look for his runners at the Christmas meet .
Report sisyphus October 23, 2013 11:34 AM BST
boy wonder 07   

I think Dynaste is a good bet for this first bet him in may that Feltham win was outstanding 4 seconds quicker than an all out long run in the king George and Dynaste never came off the bridle

I would be very careful of interpreting the times of the two races without understanding what occurred in each race Robin. Firstly I admit Dynaste looked very impressive but Hadrians Approach, Third Intention and Molotof also finished in front of the Legless Long Run and Captain Chris.
Do you Honestly think any of those three would beat long Run and Captain Chris or even Champion Court, Cue Card or Riverside Theatre, well they did if you use your interpretation method, and by a distance too.
The Pace in the King George was much faster, 3 seconds for most of the way increasing to 6 seconds before the collapse occurred, that happened about 3 out when Long Run wobbled approaching the fence and Captain Chris who had been grinding away for 3 furlongs was able to close up and take up the running going into two out, before Long Run Rallied. The Pace was so fast in the KG that Junior was off the bridle after 5 fences, in contrast the whole field were still together in the Feltham 3 from home until a fantastic leap from Dynaste 2 out helped him sail clear.
Don't get me wrong Robin I do like Dynaste but he had his ideal conditions, the heavy ground a much slower pace and his superb leaps  definitely aiding his energy conservation and with repeat conditions he must rate highly as a contender for this years KG, but he will be made to work a lot harder throughout the race like he was in the Jewson where he had nothing left up the run in.
Report boy wonder 07 October 23, 2013 12:43 PM BST
I respect your reading of both races but I honestly could not see any horse from last years king George winning it this year as for his run in the Jewson I still believe he is a better this side of the new year it wasn't his running at Cheltenham and I was surprised he won as well as he did at Aintree if I am wrong I will hold my hands up but the money is down and I cant see him getting beat
Report Dayjur October 23, 2013 6:44 PM BST
what about silviniaco conti? definitely has the form and is probably an autumn/winter horse. can forgive the aintree run. main worry is going right handed but ran ok in the feltham
Report Dayjur October 23, 2013 6:51 PM BST
there is nothing in the form of dynaste for anyone to consider backing him at this stage at the price. yes the potential is there but until he shows his he is up to this class out of novice events.
Report Angel Gabrial October 24, 2013 12:21 PM BST
Agree with Dayjur, nothing wrong with Dynaste`s form but all it does is put the horse in the mix for the KG, but he is 6/1 because a few of the others are touch and go to even make the line up, especially the Irish and then there is wellbeing issues with a few more and then the final test of wether they like the track or distance or going. Dynaste ticks all boxes in a positive way.
Report JOCI Club October 24, 2013 11:24 PM BST
As does Long Run.
Report stevo1 October 24, 2013 11:29 PM BST
Agree Joci, Long Run solid e/w at 8/1 im in.
Report judorick October 25, 2013 1:05 PM BST
Racing Post ‏@RacingPost 8m
...Nicky Henderson tells the Racing Post: "Simonsig's preparation is on hold following a splint on his nearfore."
Report stevo1 October 25, 2013 7:25 PM BST
Seathestars cursed it,he will have to back another 3 now lol!
Report Angel Gabrial October 26, 2013 8:55 PM BST
Agree about Long Run, always seems over priced for the KG due to his flops in the GC, it seems certain to me Long Run no longer reacts up the hill at Cheltenham. He is a different beast at Kempton and really is the one to beat, but Dynaste is likely to come on this season and just looks ideal.
Report buddeliea October 29, 2013 6:46 PM GMT
Gone in now on Captain Chris at 25,nice price based on his run last year and a different horse going right handed.
3 times the price of Long Run?,dont make sense at all to me.
Report HaylingBilly October 29, 2013 9:43 PM GMT
budd - snap. Went in today @ 25/1 plus Al Ferof @ 14/1. Decent weather and a bit of good ground and I really fancy CC to do well again this year. His record right handed on decent ground is outstanding. 25/1 too good to ignore any longer.
Report sageform October 30, 2013 7:25 AM GMT
The going on Boxing Day can be anything from good fast jumping ground on which Al Ferof and Cue Card would be leading contenders to a bog in the last mile and this would rule those 2 out so I will be happy to wait until the day.
Report buddeliea October 30, 2013 12:13 PM GMT
Al Ferof acts well on soft ground Sage,or do you mean he might struggle to stay cos of it??
Report buddeliea October 30, 2013 12:17 PM GMT
Yes HB,hes way overpriced compared to Long Run and hes prepping at Ascot which should put him spot on for another good run imo.

Like you they are my 2 right now that I would like to have on my side,at the prices,but I will probably wait a bit before backing AL Ferof.
Report duffy October 30, 2013 3:15 PM GMT
Mount benbulben for me 20's odd, really like him and the KG has to be a target as he's much better right handed, needs to improve but think this horse could turn out to be a real star.
Report buddeliea October 30, 2013 5:26 PM GMT
Will he come over duffy? I like him as well mate.
Report HaylingBilly October 30, 2013 6:24 PM GMT
budd - I have gone with Al Ferof now coz I feel I am now covered no matter what the going with decent odds for each. I am at peace. Grin
Report boy wonder 07 October 30, 2013 6:28 PM GMT
captain chris is a grand horse but he is 9 now and possibly last year was his chance still without a win at 3miles he may be 25/1 but not for me
Report duffy October 30, 2013 6:30 PM GMT
budd
http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/news/article/25510/8778857/kempton-target-for-benbulben

That piece is from 4 months ago admittedly, but they've said in the last week that he's on target for the JNwine race which ties in with the above piece so I assume everything is still as the original plan and the KG.Happy
Report duffy October 30, 2013 6:33 PM GMT
He has to go right handed so with that in mind the KG is a no brainer because the lexus irish hennesy are both non starters.
Report buddeliea October 30, 2013 6:39 PM GMT
Ha Ha,nice one HB,i'm just waiting cos of him coming back from injury,soon as hes about to run(ascot on the 23rd I believe)them i'm going in all guns blazingLaugh

Interesting stuff Duffy,gonna keep an eye on him mate.Hes a horse with real talent,bit iffy jumping at times,but hes proper good on his day.
Report judorick November 12, 2013 1:27 AM GMT
righty ho, so have been doing Charlie Hall, Paddy Power, Betfair and King George analysis for a few weeks now and my conclusion is that the winner is likely to be on this list:

Silviniaco Conti
Cue Card
Captain Chris
Menorah

Very few of the others I can put in the mix based on what they've done so far. Long Run is a question mark obviously
Report buddeliea November 12, 2013 7:56 AM GMT
Captain Chris
Al Ferof
Mount Benbulben

At current prices, they are the 3 i'm looking at right now. CC is real value at 25 imo based on his run last year and his liking for right handed. MB I think could be top class,would have won lto had he not fallen imo,and that would be a slight worry his jumping,but at the price around 20 worth a go.
Al Ferof bit of a punt cos of the distance and coming back,but I think 14 is fair for all that.
Report judorick November 12, 2013 11:13 AM GMT
indeed, I backed Mount Benbulben last time and he would have won. There is no doubt he has the basic ability to be competitive but just does not jump well enough for me to back him again

As for your dear old Al Ferof, he has it all stacked against him and it will be something really special if he even goes close after the injury. He has to improve on his bare form but we would expect horses to improve with age so it's not out of the question but on my figures he has to improve a bundle on the bare form

Overall I think the race is a lot less competitive than it looks on paper
Report buddeliea November 12, 2013 1:04 PM GMT
yeh,agree its a risk with MB,but at that price im willing to take it,if he jumps hes overpriced imo..IF!!

Alf of course has to improve on his bare form and hes back from injury,and next week at Ascot will tell us how hes recovered. I take heart that by all accounts it was a minor injury and am encouraged that they think highly enough of him to have taken no chances with him.
His run in the PP was darn good and if he proves his well being next week and runs a big race I expect his price to shorten.
Will he stay?,yeh he looks like he will to me.
Must admit, I thought a lot about waiting to back him after Ascot or at least on the morning of that race, but decided to go in at 14. May have it wrong but then again......
Report judorick November 12, 2013 1:21 PM GMT
yes I don't blame you backing your judgement, that is what the game is all about
Report buddeliea November 12, 2013 5:09 PM GMT
Indeed.

Also looking at those shorter than Alf,what value is amongst those?
Dynaste  - a horse that also on bare form has to improve a fair bit - 6/1 ???

Cue Card - a horse still to prove he stays 3m and will need decent ground to do that imo - plenty short enough to find out imo

SConti - will he run? and is their not a doubt about Kempton for him? - Again plenty short enough to find out

Long Run - huge question mark after his debut this season

Bobsworth - non runner aint he?
Report judorick November 12, 2013 5:22 PM GMT
yup good assessment
Report HaylingBilly November 12, 2013 6:14 PM GMT
budd - exactly same thinking as me. Then you drop below Al Ferof and you come to four Irish horses Sir Des Champs, Flemenstar, Benefficient and Mount Benb and the only one likely to come over is Mount Benb who is a dodgy jumper and then you come to Captain Chris. All seems so simple doesnt it. My two AP bets - Al Ferof and Capt Chris. Living the dream.
Report buddeliea November 12, 2013 6:40 PM GMT
Lets hope it is that simple my friend,not often it is in this game.
Report barnesey November 12, 2013 9:28 PM GMT
Starting to get stuck into this race now feel it will totally cut up..... Does anyone think sir des champs will come over???
I know trying to second guess willie is fraught with danger but feel he would take this if an intended runner!
Report judorick November 12, 2013 9:39 PM GMT
not a cat in hell's chance imo, Lexus
Report barnesey November 12, 2013 9:50 PM GMT
Really??? Surely the King George is a more prestigious race to have on the cv rather than the probable penalty kick in the Lexus!
I'm sure o'learys mob will send something maybe first lieutenant will be the one but haven't been very impressed with him this year..... What with so many doubts about the leading protagonists and willie insisting he will be sending more over to England perhaps the temptation will be hard to resist
Report judorick November 12, 2013 10:06 PM GMT
believe it when I see it
Report buddeliea November 13, 2013 7:41 AM GMT
penalty kick?? not with our Tidal Bay around it aint!!

I cannot see SDC coming over either, but of course its possible. The Lexus is a big race in Ireland.
Report barnesey November 13, 2013 10:06 AM GMT
Ok penalty kick is probably an exaggeration! I just can't believe it wouldn't be seriously considered, if I owned a top 3 mile chaser the 2 races at the top of my list to be aimed at would surely be the gold cup followed by the King George providing they go on the track that is and I don't think it matters if they are based in England or Ireland, just my opinion but looking at the odds on here I'm sure your both right in your thinking the Lexus will be the aim.
Report buddeliea November 13, 2013 12:08 PM GMT
And its a fair opinion imo,but the Irish year after year seem to stay in Ireland over xmas period.
Report FOYLESWAR December 14, 2013 10:23 PM GMT
looks like the flemenstar bet is down the swannee ,that's life !one who looks overlooked and overpriced is former gold cup winner long run who has on the face of it looked rather disappointing in his 2 runs this season ,well beaten in the Charlie hall at wetherby and 4th behind cue card,dynaste ,and silvinarco conte in the betfair at haydock . on betfair form he has a mountain to climb to reverse the form ,but he is still young and if the rain continues to fall it will only help his chance and he certainly seems to be well at home going right handed and loves Kempton . has had the king George as his big target and probably not at his best going left handed and can see him running a big race if conditions were fall in his favour , rain forcast over the next few weeks apparently and 16s  on the books is too big for a dual king George and former  gold cup winner .selection ...long run 1 point each way at 16s .
Report brandyontherocks December 16, 2013 11:16 AM GMT
I think you would have to be very concerned regarding Long Run's 2 efforts this season.
He jumped much better at Haydock last time out, but his usual toughness seems to have left him.

He has had some very tough races, 3 Gold Cups, 3 King George's & 3 Betfairs.   Even in defeat he has ran his heart out and ran to the line.   

But that had been missing this season, and tho he is still young, I fear his best days could be behind him now.

Great horse.
Report FOYLESWAR December 16, 2013 11:26 AM GMT
you could be right ,my main hope is that back  going right handed on a course that he seems to love and possibly hendo will have him spot on for this ,hopefully hendo didn't want him having too hard a time before the king George ,realistically  if he gets his conditions  and it went very soft or heavy then a place  at least is not out of the question !
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