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Racecaller08
04 Sep 13 22:51
Joined:
Date Joined: 15 Feb 08
| Topic/replies: 73 | Blogger: Racecaller08's blog
Trends for the past 10 runnings of the Old Borough Cup (http://tinyurl.com/l3yyaum) Mark Johnston 3yos must be respected:

Age (Win-Place-Runners)
3yo: 5-4-21
4yo: 2-10-60
5yo: 2-7-40
6yo: 0-4-23
7yo+: 1-1-16
3 year olds have the best record, winning 5 of the last 10 from approximately 13% of the total runners. Strangely there has been no 3yo runners in 2010 or 2011 and there was only two 3yos in 2012 (provided the winner).
9 of last 10 winners were aged 3 to 5, though they did represent 75.6% of the total runners.

Weights
Horses carrying 9-7 or more: 2-4-25
Horses carrying 9-0 to 9-6: 4-8-38
Horses carrying 8-7 to 8-13: 2-9-64
Horses carrying 8-6 or less: 2-6-33
4 of 5 winners aged 3 carried 8-9 to 9-1 (exception carried 8-2)
4 of 5 winners aged 4+ carried 9-2 or more (exception carried 8-9)
Top weight: 05059300828 (0-2-11)

Official Ratings (2004-2012)
Horses rated 95 to 105: 6-7-41
Horses rated 85 to 94: 2-11-68
Horses rated 83 or lower: 0-2-14
Since race became a class 2 handicap in 2004 all 8 winners were rated 90 or higher, with horses officially rated 95+ winning 6 of 8 from exactly a third of total runners.

Recent/Past Form
9 of 10 winners had run 4 to 7 times that season
8 of 10 winners finished in first 4 last time
9 of 10 winners posted career high RPR in last 2 starts
9 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 97+ in last 2 outings
4 of 5 winners aged 4+ had run in 10 to 14 handicaps
5 of 5 winners aged 3 had run in 6 or fewer handicaps
8 of 10 winners had won a race that season (1 exception was placed in Ebor on previous start & other had run just once)
10 of 10 winners had won over 1M 4F to 1M 6F
Since race became a class 2 handicap 8 of 8 winners had won a class 3 or higher (all 3 winners aged 3 had won a class 2 handicap worth 16K+)

Other Races
Highest placed finisher from RAC Stakes at Goodwood to run in this: 1311 (3-1-4)
Gordon's Stakes winner (Duke Of Clarence): 10 (1-0-2)
Punter Southall Transaction Services Handicap winner (Poyle Thomas): 061 (1-0-3)
Best Dressed Lady At Pontefract Handicap winner (Kiama Bay): 881 (1-0-3)
Mollart Cox Handicap winner (Viking Storm): 40 (0-1-2)
Constant Security Stakes winner (Cousin Khee): 60 (0-0-2)
Queen Mother's Cup winner (Nanton): 98 (0-0-2)
3 of 5 winners aged 3 ran in RAC Stakes, finishing 411
2 of 5 winners aged 3 ran in London Gold Cup, finishing 36
2 of 5 winners aged 3 ran in Melrose Stakes, finishing 40
2 of 5 winners aged 4+ ran in the Ebor Handicap, finishing 44
2 of 5 winners aged 4+ ran in Summer Stakes, finishing 24
2 of 5 winners aged 4+ ran in Northumberland Plate, finishing 76

Trainers
Mark Johnston (4-4-24) has won this 4 times since 2002, 3 of his 4 winners were aged 3. Record of Mark Johnston 3yos in this: 010310301 (3-2-9).
Luca Cumani’s (1-1-3) last 2 runners in this were runner-up in 2007 and winner in 2011.
Roger Charlton’s (1-0-1) only runner in past 10 runnings was Dune, who won it in 2002.
Tim Easterby (0-3-8) has seen 3 of his 8 runners make the frame while Richard Hannon (0-1-1) & Mick Easterby (0-1-1) have both seen their one runner make the places. 

Racing Tactics
7 of 8 winners on good or firmer were held up in midfield or rear
Both winners on soft/heavy led or raced with leaders

Price
9 of 10 winners were priced 11/1 or shorter
Horses prominent in the betting have done well in this with 9 of last 10 winners coming from the first 6 in the betting.
Favourites (5-4-12) have a very strong record, having won 5 of the last 10, giving a level stakes profit of 11.00.

Summary:
Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
·         Aged 3 to 5 (especially 3yos)
·         3yo carrying 8-9 to 9-1 or a 4 or 5yo carrying 9-2 or more
·         Officially rated 95 or higher
·         Ran 4 to 7 times in 2013
·         Finished in the first 4 last time
·         Posted highest RPR of 97+ in last 2 starts
·         Won a race in 2013
·         Run in 6 or fewer handicaps (no more than 14 if aged 4+)
·         Won over 1M 4F to 1M 6F
·         Previously won a class 2 or 3 race worth 10K+
·         Aged 3 that finished in first 6 in London Gold Cup, Melrose and/or RAC Stakes
·         Aged 4+ that placed in Ebor H’cap and/or Summer Stakes
·         Hold up horses favoured on fast ground
·         Horses who race prominently favoured on softer
·         Trained by Mark Johnston or Luca Cumani
·         Priced 11/1 or shorter (favourite does well)
Pause Switch to Standard View Old Borough Cup - Haydock Sat 7th Sept
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Report Pinza September 6, 2013 8:34 PM BST
Very difficult this year - not saying it is ever easy.
No 3yo's to contend with this year
Probably rests between 4 & 5yo's


Too many runs over 16f or further is a disadvantage according to previous winners so that may rule out nine of the 16 runners.
The theory (based upon five examples from six 4yo+ past winners of the race) is that the horse maybe tried once at that further distance to see if it stays but if not turns out to be a 12-14f maximum runner.

All three 4yo winners had won in current year and the lack of a win by five of this years runners maybe a concern BUT we are playing against Sir Mark Prescott and Mark Johnston.
Also the inexperience at this level and just one season of racing may go against Poyle Thomas.

A run at Haydock may not be essential but five of the six past winners that were 4yo and older had a previous run there but only one was placed.

I am not aware that any of the previous winners of this race had run over hurdles so question marks about four runners.

No past winner (except 3yo Regal Flush 52K) had won it's highest prize value run so further question marks against Semeen and Pallasator.

I would like to say that all this information has simplified things, but it hasn't.

My original fancy was Oriental Fox, who finished 2nd in Newcastle Plate. The put off is it's further run over 16f after that race, but one can never rule out the master trainer. Surely this horse deserves to win a higher win prize than 3k, even though it won 27k when beaten a short head by Tominator in Plate.

The danger might be the trainers other runner the filly Scatter Dice who has led at some stage in seven of her last eight races  - the odd one out was also The Plate. Perhaps they never let her go that day because Oriental Fox should  have been the winner?  With 9lb better off and the job jockey aboard she might just come right?
Report Facts September 6, 2013 10:50 PM BST
Pallasator
Report Pinza September 7, 2013 1:12 PM BST
Looking at Racecaller Trends
Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
·         Aged 3 to 5 (especially 3yos)
Negatives
7,8,9,12,13,14,

·         3yo carrying 8-9 to 9-1 or a 4 or 5yo carrying 9-2 or more
Negatives
6,7,8,9,11,12,13,14,15,16

·         Officially rated 95 or higher
Negatives
4,5,6,7,8,9,11,12,13,14,15,16

·         Ran 4 to 7 times in 2013
Negatives
1,4

·         Finished in the first 4 last time
Negatives
2,6,7,11,12,14,16

·         Posted highest RPR of 97+ in last 2 starts
Negatives
5,6,7,11,12,14,16

·         Won a race in 2013
Negatives
1,2,4,6,7,11

·         Run in 6 or fewer handicaps (no more than 14 if aged 4+)

·         Won over 1M 4F to 1M 6F
Negatives
5,

·         Previously won a class 2 or 3 race worth 10K+
Negatives
1,2,4,5,6,8,9,13,15,16

·         Aged 4+ that placed in Ebor H’cap and/or Summer Stakes
·         Oriental Fox 5th Ebor.
Suraj 3rd Summer Stks (Clowance Estate & Oriental Fox unplaced)
         
·         Horses who race prominently favoured on softer
·         Trained by Mark Johnston - Oriental Fox & Scatter Dice

·         Priced 11/1 or shorter (favourite does well)

In race Card Order.  Positive and Negative scores
Betting minus means another negative at current price (anything more than 12/1)

Pallasator;  5 - 3
Oriental Fox;  6 - 3 but would give another positive for short head in Plate.
Tropical Beat NR
Gassin Golf;    4 - 4  Betting minus
Clowance Estate; 5 - 4
Suraj;   3 -6
Blue Bajan; 3 - 6
Kiama Bay; 3 - 6
Platinum;  5  - 4
Semeen NR
Scatter Dice; 4  - 5  Betting minus
Itlaaq;  4  - 5  Betting minus
Cousin Khee; 5  - 4
Nanton;  4  - 5   Betting minus
Poyle Thomas;  6  - 3
Wyborne;  4  - 5 Betting minus
Report Platini September 7, 2013 1:49 PM BST
Kiama Bay a nice e/w bet.
Report Pinza September 7, 2013 2:09 PM BST
Looked at over last 20 yrs at 2nds in Plate (Oriental Fox)
Quite a few short heads and head 2nds(8) but only 3 winners
and two of those won a race similar to todays Ebor & Goodwood.
On that evidence would rule out O Fox today.
Report Try My Best September 7, 2013 3:15 PM BST
Blue Bajan well handicapped
Report Pinza September 8, 2013 3:02 PM BST
1st: Platinum;  5  - 4
2nd: Clowance Estate; 5 - 4
3rd: Pallasator;  5 - 3

If nothing else, then the one's with more positives than negatives came out on top.
Report PeteTheBloke September 9, 2013 7:34 PM BST
If nothing else, then the one's with more positives than negatives came out on top.

Too often, that just about sums up how trends work: Fit the past to your theory. No disrespect
intended Pinza.

I wonder if weighting the trends might produce better results. Has anyone tried that on here?
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